WAAF

[Deleted User]

so the long mentioned "WBOS bills well even though the ratings are not great" theory is now debunked?

a 5 year revenue slide and crappy ratings? The problem is they have nothing to replace it with that will do any better

 

[CTListener]

so the long mentioned "WBOS bills well even though the ratings are not great" theory is now debunked?

a 5 year revenue slide and crappy ratings? The problem is they have nothing to replace it with that will do any better

WBOS has replaced its timid take on alternative with straight-up '80s/'90s-centered classic rock. David noted that the performance he cited is for the "old" format. It is far too early to say whether classic rock will improve billing or not. I'd predict it will, if only because the advertisers don't have as many negative perceptions of classic rock listeners as they do of alt listeners, since the former carry fewer of the cynical, hipster, anti-advertising attitudes.

 

[MarkW]

WAAF's ratings are sliding, and with time, Rock 92.9 could prove to be a better buy for advertisers. The latter station certainly has stronger ratings. I'd say WAAF's outlook is unfavorable and their billing will most likely fall significantly in 2020.

I would say if they are billing 7 Million....and posting 1 million profit, then the sale price would have to be $20 million or so to make it make sense.

A 20x multiple for an asset that is part of a slowly decaying business model (i.e. terrestrial radio)?!?! Surely you jest!

The 50% decline in revenue WBOS incurred during the last couple years of its run with Alternative is likely explained by poor programming decisions. Prior to the station's ratings gains toward the very end (which were the result of a long overdue shift toward a more current & recurrent based playlist), it suffered a prolonged period of terrible ratings.

98.5 The Sports Hub + Rock 92.9 > WEEI + WAAF.

 

[Wimmmex]

A 20x multiple for an asset that is part of a slowly decaying business model (i.e. terrestrial radio)?!?! Surely you jest!.

Just my take. ;-)

We have all been surprised at the small price that stations have been fetching these days.

If it pays it's bills and is profitable, then I wouild keep it in my portfolio.

The question really is, how to re-tool it and prepare it for the market challenges.realities.

I think Entercom, and the #2 radio company, is in a better position to do that than anyone else.

 

[TheBigA]

I think Entercom, and the #2 radio company, is in a better position to do that than anyone else.

There's really one motivated seller right now in radio, and they currently own stations in the Worcester market. I'd expect THEY will be sold before WAAF.

 

[davideduardo]

When the marketplace changes, as it is for WAAF, it's time for a retooling...not giving up, throwing in the towel and selling....

any offer above $12 million should be given serious consideration.

I would say if they are billing 7 Million....and posting 1 million profit, then the sale price would have to be $20 million or so to make it make sense.

Again, $7 Million is a lot of money....why say goodbye to it and simulcast?

My guess is that even on low billing the station is cash flowing around $2 million. And if Entercom uses a weighted allocation of cluster expenses (the big billers pay more of the cluster costs for management, services, insurance, engineering, insurance, etc. and lower billers pay less) then the profit might approach 3 million.

But let's not forget that clusters have big economies when there is one GM, one sales staff, a centralized traffic and billing center, shared engineering and the like. For a new owner, unless they also have a cluster, they'd have to hire a compete management and administration staff, making the operation much more marginal.

So the station is likely not worth selling as it complements the cluster, and adds some key demos.

 

[MarkW]

I will absolutely concede the point that a WEEI simulcast on 107.3 MHz doesn't make sense given the amount of Broadcast Cash Flow that WAAF generates.

We can remove that option from my earlier list.

However, I will hold fast to my opinion that WAAF is in a vulnerable position from a future outlook perspective barring a move to give the station a more potent Greater Boston signal.

 

[TheBigA]

However, I will hold fast to my opinion that WAAF is in a vulnerable position from a future outlook perspective barring a move to give the station a more potent Greater Boston signal.

The move they made 10-12 years ago is as close to Boston as they'll be allowed to go, due to signal conflicts. Unless they buy one of those stations and shut it down.

 

[macattack]

So you would deny the people of Boston a current rock station? That would put them in the same place as the people of New York City.

Is Boston no better than New York?

New York didn't even have an alternative station until two years ago. I think NYC went five years without a current rock or alternative station before Entercom flipped 92.3/WNYL to alternative.

92.3 doesn't do all that well but a 2.2-2.5 share in a city like New York is still a substantial amount of listeners. The 1.3 rating WAAF is saddled with, however, is troubling. They could flip it to alternative (active-leaning or otherwise) but truth be told Entercom is limited with what they can do with the station due to saturation of other formats.

IMO, I think Entercom is stuck trying to make this station work for the near future one way or another.

To correct the record on Chicago, as a lifelong citizen of that market, I will say that Q101, technically, was never an Active rocker. Our last true Active rock station was WZZN 94.7 "The Zone", which was flipped to oldies in October 2005. What happened with Q101 was that it had been on a "On Shuffle" experimental format since 2005 that was essentially a prototypical "classic alternative" format; it hardly ran more than a few currents. The format had completely backfired by 2007 and Emmis had the station's playlist changed into a clone of St. Louis' heritage alt KPNT, which was that of an active-leaning alternative. Q101 kept going for a few years as an active-leaning alternative, but as active crossovers began flopping in 2011 Q101's ratings faltered and the station was sold to Randy Michaels and the whole FM News 101.1 debacle happened.

By the time WKQX flipped back to alternative in 2014 things were completely different in both the Chicago market and alternative format and it's currently a pop-friendly alternative that occasionally drops a nu-metal-era song into the playlist once in a while.

EDIT: Though, when you think about it, Q101 was an early adopter of alternative's short-lived embrace of Metallica in the late 00's that peaked with "The Day That Never Comes" becoming Metallica's only top 5 (and top 10 for that matter) on the format. Those were interesting times...

 

[Eli Polonsky]

The move they made 10-12 years ago is as close to Boston as they'll be allowed to go, due to signal conflicts. Unless they buy one of those stations and shut it down.

Could they possibly at least go with low power boosters in and scattered around metro Boston like WXRV and WXLO?

 

[TheBigA]

Could they possibly at least go with low power boosters in and scattered around metro Boston like WXRV and WXLO?

That sounds like a question for Scott Fybush.

 

[TheBigA]

New York didn't even have an alternative station until two years ago. I think NYC went five years without a current rock or alternative station before Entercom flipped 92.3/WNYL to alternative.

I think the one thing both NY and Boston have is a robust group of college radio stations that play a lot of current rock and alternative.

 

[fybush]

That sounds like a question for Scott Fybush.

Can boosters be added legally? Sure. WAAF's 54 dBu contour extends well over Boston out into the harbor, north almost to Salem and almost to Hingham on the south shore. Anywhere within that contour, you can put up a booster with up to 1920 watts ERP (20% of the 9.6 kW main), so long as the booster's 54 dBu contour doesn't extend past the main signal's predicted 54. (Fun fact: WAAF's 54 also covers Providence, and you could put a booster THERE, too, if you wanted to.)

Just because you can, however, doesn't mean you automatically want to. Self-interference is a big challenge with boosters over relatively flat terrain. You can do as much harm as good if you start causing interference to your own signal in areas where it had been clear.

 

[inorm99]

[And now on, the commercial side,a bunch of really poor excuses for rock, with no alternative station, almost like the 70's and 80's which were rich in musical talent, and great radio in Boston i never existed QUOTE=TheBigA;6277425]I think the one thing both NY and Boston have is a robust group of college radio stations that play a lot of current rock and alternative.[/QUOTE]

 

[CTListener]

Yikes, Norm! What a quoting trainwreck!

 

[inorm99]

And now on, the commercial side,a bunch of really poor excuses for rock, with no alternative station, almost like the 70's and 80's which were rich in musical talent, and great radio in Boston i never existed

Better?

 

[MarkW]

Re:

From its current licensed site, WAAF's 54 dBu comes nowhere near Providence. (From the old site, much of the city of Providence was inside the predicted 54 dBu contour.)

As far as Q101 is concerned, during its final year on the air before the Merlin takeover, I never heard any pure alt product. Nearly every single song would fit well as a current, recurrent or library track on a standard Active Rock station. The fact the station never bothered changing its panel status doesn't mean much to me. Toward the end, about 90 percent of the playlist was either nu metal, grunge, or guitar-driven modern rock (Bush, Smashing Pumpkins, etc). Pantera even received occasional spins. Not only was the playlist "heavier" than any so-called alternative rock station in the country, it had a heavier texture than the vast majority of active rock panel reporters.

Q101 made a mistake perhaps by not rebranding, and they definitely made a gigantic mistake but not dumping the awful Manno Brothers from PM Drive much sooner than they did. They were still around several months after the station went heavier, and man did they stick out like a sore thumb for reasons that should be obvious to anyone who's had the displeasure of hearing their on-air work.

 

[macattack]

As far as Q101 is concerned, during its final year on the air before the Merlin takeover, I never heard any pure alt product. Nearly every single song would fit well as a current, recurrent or library track on a standard Active Rock station. The fact the station never bothered changing its panel status doesn't mean much to me. Toward the end, about 90 percent of the playlist was either nu metal, grunge, or guitar-driven modern rock (Bush, Smashing Pumpkins, etc). Pantera even received occasional spins. Not only was the playlist "heavier" than any so-called alternative rock station in the country, it had a heavier texture than the vast majority of active rock panel reporters.

Q101 made a mistake perhaps by not rebranding, and they definitely made a gigantic mistake but not dumping the awful Manno Brothers from PM Drive much sooner than they did. They were still around several months after the station went heavier, and man did they stick out like a sore thumb for reasons that should be obvious to anyone who's had the displeasure of hearing their on-air work.

I actually found Q101's final year-end countdown here if you're interested. While obviously heavily active (how many alternative stations touched Janus or Escape the Fate outside of KPNT and WKQX even in 2010?), Q101 did run some alternative artists, such as Muse, Cage the Elephant, New Politics, and Jimmy Eat World, that have historically been poor fits for active. Not to mention that Neon Trees, a barometer for the indie pop trend that was about to break open, got spun enough to get 32nd place. However, I will agree that the playlist leaned too heavily active, and that may have played a part in its eventual downfall.

Now, I think an ideal alternative/active hybrid should lean more alternative and use the active elements as a kind of hot sauce to give the playlist a unique kick (with obvious adjustments to the market). I've noticed that hybrid active/alts tend to struggle unless they are in a special market where they are the only game in town and are able to carefully balance wearing both hats. Q101 did a sloppy job of it and went away, while KPNT in St. Louis has done a better job and has managed to persist to today in its current incarnation. KFMA in Tucson, and WCYY in Portland, Maine have also managed to persist for a while with their unique alternative/active blends (KFMA is probably the edgiest alternative rocker in the country).

Would making WAAF an alternative/active hybrid work for Boston? Boston does not have an alternative station, and having WAAF wear both hats like the stations mentioned above might be able to attract a wider audience without losing the core audience that wants to hear new rock. A hybrid can play anything from Tom Petty to Coldplay to Ghost if they program it right.

 

[MarkW]

That's a darn good analysis, macattack.

I'm inclined to agree with you. I think a KPNT-like sound would be good for WAAF. However, I think WAAF should steer clear of artists such as Coldplay and Tom Petty. Frankly, texturally speaking, a KPNT-like approach would be similar to the music direction the station took in the late 90's and early 00's.

In terms of filling in analog coverage gaps for WAAF's programming, I wonder if a translator station for WEEI-HD2 would be viable? I realize the FM dial in that part of New England is very cluttered, so I have no idea if any open/viable channels even exist.

 

[CTListener]

That's a darn good analysis, macattack.

I'm inclined to agree with you. I think a KPNT-like sound would be good for WAAF. However, I think WAAF should steer clear of artists such as Coldplay and Tom Petty. Frankly, texturally speaking, a KPNT-like approach would be similar to the music direction the station took in the late 90's and early 00's.

In terms of filling in analog coverage gaps for WAAF's programming, I wonder if a translator station for WEEI-HD2 would be viable? I realize the FM dial in that part of New England is very cluttered, so I have no idea if any open/viable channels even exist.

What do you and others think of Vermont's The Point (WNCS Montpelier and its statewide network)? It has the present/past mix macattack noted in his hybrid examples, but could be short on the active rock "kick" suggested for such stations. Of course, largely rural Vermont has a much different musical and lifestyle vibe to it than MetroWest and Boston do, so maybe the mellower approach is a response to the nature of the market. Can you see the format working on a Boston-area station as currently done (with Boston-area bands taking the place of Vermont bands on the playlist) or would a much harder approach be appropriate?