November 2021 Trends

[AceBiscuits]

Based on what you and A are saying, WBUF is doing something seriously wrong. They should have a gold mine instead of being dead in the water with a 1.9 share.

WBUF being 'unsuccessful' is not indicative of how the format performs elsewhere. Just look at how 97 Rock is doing.

97 Rock has a multitude of advantages over WBUF: a heritage station, tenured/well-known DJs, active in the community, etc. The same cannot be said about WBUF.

That said, we've been down this road before about why WBUF is unsuccessful, so it's not worth going in a circle with this. I think the format has the potential to be relatively successful; it may never beat 97 Rock but it could do better than what it is now. The execution, however, is poor at the moment.

 

[SirRoxalot]

So, once again, what format do you see being successful on 92.9, 'bolt? Just what's going to get a 4 share on that big signal and start raking in revenue?

 

[TheBigA]

The execution, however, is poor at the moment.

Of course now with a new PD who already knows the market, things may improve soon.

 

[DN14224]

Of course now with a new PD who already knows the market, things may improve soon.

Don’t bet your 401k on it.

 

[davideduardo]

Based on what you and A are saying, WBUF is doing something seriously wrong. They should have a gold mine instead of being dead in the water with a 1.9 share.

They are top 5, on average, in 25-54 men. The real issue is whether there is adequate advertiser demand for anything outside the top two or three stations in that demo.

 

[tbolt909]

They are top 5, on average, in 25-54 men. The real issue is whether there is adequate advertiser demand for anything outside the top two or three stations in that demo.

Really? So WBUF is beating stations like WBLK, WYRK, 97 Rock, WGR, WEDG, WHTT, WECK, WBEN, KISS, and every other station that is above them? Are you looking at their ratings when they were JACK? If WBUF is top 5 in Men 25-54 right NOW, they have to be beating some of these stations.

Maybe WBUF listeners write down 97 Rock in the diary. That would explain why their ratings went up recently. Let's say one station has a 7 share and another has a 2 share. The 2 share station is winning in 25-54. That means the 7 share station has a lot of really old or really young listeners. The 7 share station CANNOT have fewer listeners than the 2 share one...

 

[davideduardo]

Really? So WBUF is beating stations like WBLK, WYRK, 97 Rock, WGR, WEDG, WHTT, WECK, WBEN, KISS, and every other station that is above them? Are you looking at their ratings when they were JACK?

I am looking at the three month rolling average for the last two months of Summer and the first month of Fall.

I am not stupid or ignorant enough to use out-of-date ratings to make a point.

If WBUF is top 5 in Men 25-54 right NOW, they have to be beating some of these stations.

Yes, it means they are beating all but either four 5 (they are actually in a tie for fifth in some of the demos I named) in men.

Maybe WBUF listeners write down 97 Rock in the diary. That would explain why their ratings went up recently...

Unlikely. Most larger groups have people who look at the diaries (they are digitally available) for their smaller markets and focus on spotting patterns, ascription errors and other actionable items. (We do the same with PPM, but with different analysis systems as the data is all electronically submitted)

Most diary entries are either the dial position alone or dial and name.

Obviously, you have never done a diary review. See this web page with my own photos of the old review center in Columbia.

https://worldradiohistory.com/research_arbitron_diary.htm (On that page there is a good Arbitron guide to understanding ratings and ratings terminology. It's so good, in fact, that Nielsen still has it on their site as a downloadable reference booklet!)

 

[tbolt909]

So, once again, what format do you see being successful on 92.9, 'bolt? Just what's going to get a 4 share on that big signal and start raking in revenue?

Maybe Townsquare should contact the local NPR affiliate. They could let The Bridge use the signal in some kind of partnership deal. As Buddy said, the most recent new Commercial formats haven't worked at all...

 

[Buddy Shula]

Of course now with a new PD who already knows the market, things may improve soon.

A PD who had a 0.9 share most of the tenure in Buffalo? Dude, the station is cooked.

 

[tbolt909]

I am looking at the three month rolling average for the last two months of Summer and the first month of Fall.

I am not stupid or ignorant enough to use out-of-date ratings to make a point.

Yes, it means they are beating all but either four 5 (they are actually in a tie for fifth in some of the demos I named) in men.

If WBUF can be Top 5 with a 1.9 share, that's a neat trick. They should have no trouble getting advertisers away from 97 Rock. They can deliver the same results at a better price...

 

[Buddy Shula]

Maybe Townsquare should contact the local NPR affiliate. They could let The Bridge use the signal in some kind of partnership deal. As Buddy said, the most recent new Commercial formats haven't worked at all...

I agree with you again. This is getting weird Bolt. I think it's a bromance. NO new format is gonna work for anyone, because listeners no longer give a rats ass. Name 1 station with a new format in the past ten years that has taken the market by storm. ZERO. They all change formats 5x . Folks, the listeners are not there. 10 years ago WBEN had about 300K listeners per week. They now have 97K . WECK has 75K! And is 1KW and does not even cover Niagara County very well.

Here is what is going to happen. Because the other stations are going down so fast, WECK is going to hold steady or slightly go up. By the time that happens we will be top 7 12 p.

In the books, I see the cume's and TSL. Radio is losing cume. I could care less what anyone says about that. It is losing cume. Everywhere. I hate to be a doomsayer, and I love radio more than anything. I have never done anything else since 15 years old, but it is the truth. Spin it however you want, people are streaming radio, they are listening on voice activated devices, audio (which by the way includes all audi, not just terrestrial radio) is on the rise.

Here is the problem that is coming, or in some cases here.

The large companies have a ton of debt, and way overpaid. Spot purchasing, especially from National is way down. They are no longer on trying to make a profit from spot sales. Their stockholders are getting antsy. So they are making up new things to do, like digital. In the case of Audacy, the net margins which should be about 40% in the broadcast industry, are in the minus numbers. Just look at the stock page on AOL money. SO they will be selling.

Meanwhile, a company like mine has ZERO debt, great credit, great margins (they could always be better) and I have hired some of the best people in the industry, bar none! I can share the wealth with these people because they bring results . So instead of me pocketing a billion dollars, I share with these incredible people and pocket 800 million. Still a pretty nice day, and everyone is more than happy.

The fact is, I bought WECK knowing it's potential because I knew how bad the other companies were going to be doing. SO it's really because of them, that WECK is doing so well. I'll take that anyday.

I want radio to thrive and make a huge comeback. I really do. I feed off the competition. I am a maverick in so many ways. I love the challenge, but with new technologies that are just going to keep getting bigger and better, the big companies will be dead, and people like me with a track record will be buying them. Is that going to bring radio alive again, because I buy them? not at all. But it will be a lot better than what we are getting now, and I will not pay a price, or be beholden to anyone, like these wall street companies are.

Infact, look for a purchase announcement on the FCC website, or whatever radio site you go to, from me, in the next few weeks, it's already done.

 

[ckg279]

Townsquare has experience with FM talk (WKXW New Jersey).
WBEN looks like it has that whole pie to itself in Buffalo where they're #3 ranked...on AM.

WBUF has gone the hot talk format before(in the mid 2000s, but it was a VERY brief run).

 

[davideduardo]

If WBUF can be Top 5 with a 1.9 share, that's a neat trick. They should have no trouble getting advertisers away from 97 Rock. They can deliver the same results at a better price...

That's a 1.9 in 12+.

For about two decades, WFAN in NYC was around 15th in 12+. But they were #1 in billing. They had a very tight, salable demo. Few women, few under 25, not a whole lot of 65 and over.

12+ is often meaningless. But your lack of radio experience and, particularly, sales experience does not allow you to see reality.

 

[davideduardo]

If WBUF can be Top 5 with a 1.9 share, that's a neat trick. They should have no trouble getting advertisers away from 97 Rock. They can deliver the same results at a better price...

Radio is not an election and not a horse race. Most significant advertisers buy more than one media outlet. This is not about "getting advertisers away" from anything. It is about selling what they have at an appropriate price.

 

[tbolt909]

That's a 1.9 in 12+.

For about two decades, WFAN in NYC was around 15th in 12+. But they were #1 in billing. They had a very tight, salable demo. Few women, few under 25, not a whole lot of 65 and over.

12+ is often meaningless. But your lack of radio experience and, particularly, sales experience does not allow you to see reality.

12+ is not meaningless. If it was nobody would need to subscribe to Nielsen. Obviously, a stations ratings in their target audience is more important. Radio stations are not required to subscribe to Nielsen. If the on air product is so great it should sell itself, right?

Your ability to spin is masterful. Why do stations flip formats constantly? They just need better salesmen like you...

 

[TheBigA]

12+ is not meaningless. If it was nobody would need to subscribe to Nielsen.

You don't know what you don't know.

 

[davideduardo]

12+ is not meaningless. If it was nobody would need to subscribe to Nielsen.

Nobody subscribes for the 12+ numbers. Most of us never look at them, even if we are paying hundreds of thousands for the service. And you'd better bet that agencies seldom look at the "big" numbers like 12+.

Obviously, a stations ratings in their target audience is more important. Radio stations are not required to subscribe to Nielsen.

No, but if they intend to market to ad agencies, it's almost essential. When I was in market 14 only, 95% of our sales were to agencies. And while service and other considerations were important, pricing and rank were the most important.

If the on air product is so great it should sell itself, right?

No, it won't unless a potential client (or their partner) listens to you.

Your ability to spin is masterful. Why do stations flip formats constantly? They just need better salesmen like you...

Actually, most markets see only a format change or two every few years. Formats age out. Formats get new competitors and die. Advertisers develop new targets.

Remember, whether it is a radio station or a shampoo, new products don't have a guaranteed positive outcome and many fail.

The most successful format in 1975 was dying by 1985. The industry, whether on-air or streamed, will always have regular changes as tastes change, listeners age out of sales demos, new music genres evolve.

Oh, and the least thing I like doing is selling.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Wow! What an interesting thread this has become.
Buddy & Bolt actually agreeing?
Who are these guys? And what have they done with the real Buddy and Bolt?

The Lion sits down with the lamb. Nobody gets called an "ash hole" or told to "stick it."

Must be the spirit of Christmas RF.

And Dave with the tutorial. And "A" with a scowl. At least some normalcy remains.

But seriously, being "Top 5 in-demo" is a precarious lot. As has been suggested, the #1 station could have a 10 share, 5,000 AQH Persons and a 2 rating. The # 5 station could have a 4 share, 2,000 AQH Persons and a 0.5 rating. (Numbers here are an example only.)

In between #1 and #5, the #2 station could have an 8 share, 4,700 AQH Persons ...

#3 could have a 7.8 share, 4,500 AQH Persons.

#4 could have a 6.8 share, and 4,100 AQH Persons

You get the idea.

Stations 1, 2 and 3 get on the agency buy. Maybe station #4 end-runs the agency and gets its beak wet with direct money (pissing off the agency, and/or the buyer, never to set foot in the shop again) and station #5, especially with a tie, gets a "maybe we'll buy next year." Crank. Zero.

Unless the numbers are close and tight, it's a tough game being #5 in-demo, especially tied.

I have no idea if and what WBUF might do. Most likely, stand pat with what they have. But what they have doesn't seem as good as what they could have. Or maybe, what they had.

 

[SirRoxalot]

What got lost in the discussion of WBUF is the question of what Townsquare is really asking of the station. Are they really expecting it to be competitive locally? Are they willing to put in the resources to make that happen? Or, do they want to use it as a flanker, trying to nick a couple of shares from a market leader in order to enhance the positioning of their top stations in the market. Meanwhile, they clear commercials for several nationally syndicated shows, extending the reach of those shows for people who buy based on national syndication. National music brands like XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com get to claim greater access to a national audience.

Yeah, I get it. WBUF has a big signal. Using it as a flanker seems like a horrible waste of RF. To Townsquare, who has wholeheartedly embraced digital as the future of the medium, that big signal just looks like a big electric bill every month, not to mention the other costs for engineering, equipment, licensing, etc. At last count, OTA radio still brought in over 85% of the revenue. According to Statisctica, estimated radio station revenue for 2021 is $21.59-billion. Estimated revenue for local radio digital advertising is $1.3-billion. It seems like a few more dollars should go toward promoting and maintaining the bigger chunk of the pie. In reality, a lot of the revenue growth for digital is financed by costs assigned to OTA radio.

Townsquare expanded their reach beyond radio with "Taste of Country," Townsquare IGNITE, a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology, and essentially replacing small-town local media with their website content as small newspapers and other local media outlets have folded by the thousands. Their digital footprint is quite different that the players in much larger markets who still have competition from other entertainment sources. They've been a very top-down company who has tried to impose the demands required of small-market stations on their handful of medium-to-large market stations. It doesn't work so well when you're not the only game in the market. We'll see if the new guy at WYRK, a very successful regional programmer, has a free hand to try to stop the bleeding there.

"Visionaries" will tell you that OTA radio is gathering momentum on the slippery slope to dinosaurhood. Smart speakers and apps are replacing it as a medium. Other "visionaries" will tell you that it ain't the delivery system that matters, it's the connection with the audience that brings in the money. Local advertising far outweighs the national buys in a market like Buffalo.

 

[four4rock]

>>> snip <<< 10 years ago WBEN had about 300K listeners per week. They now have 97K . >>> snip <<<

Wow! That's quite shocking. Sooooo many curiosities about this. Is it fair to say that OTA radio is now a niche... like vinyl, typewriters, or film cameras... and will have to managed like one?