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Cumulus CEO - Half of the big radio companies gone

I'm told that Big League is filing for bankruptcy in St. Louis.

For all the rumors that 790 will fold in 2009, I dont believe it's true. In a weird way, a small family-owned company with a cash-rich backer is better insulated than the mega radio companies who are heavily leveraged and can't get back inside the loan office to get more.
 
This kind of leads in to something I have been thinking about for a few weeks. Many radio companies are trading well under a dollar a share. Some as low as 10 to 20 cents. These are all companies with assets that are not just going to evaporate. They will either be bought out, taken private or some other action if it gets bad as Mr. Dickey believes. My commissions on a brokerage account are $7. So in some cases for less than $20 I can buy a round lot (100 shares) and pay the commission. What are the thoughts on buying some of these cheap radio stocks? I wouldn't buy in my IRA but just for s**ts and giggles and for the entertainment. If they do go back up or are bought you will turn a few dollars. I did pretty good on Sirius stocks a few years back.
 
ricksegers said:
This kind of leads in to something I have been thinking about for a few weeks. Many radio companies are trading well under a dollar a share. Some as low as 10 to 20 cents. These are all companies with assets that are not just going to evaporate. They will either be bought out, taken private or some other action if it gets bad as Mr. Dickey believes. My commissions on a brokerage account are $7. So in some cases for less than $20 I can buy a round lot (100 shares) and pay the commission. What are the thoughts on buying some of these cheap radio stocks? I wouldn't buy in my IRA but just for s**ts and giggles and for the entertainment. If they do go back up or are bought you will turn a few dollars. I did pretty good on Sirius stocks a few years back.

Rick, I would check the balance sheets before I bought much. Many of them are very very close to breaking loan covenants and while the p.r. spin may be the lenders are cooperative...who would have thought CitiBank would tank? Let's hope their lenders aren't reading the Atlanta Biz chronicle article.

Of all the majors, Cox is in the best financial shape. They didn't go "hog wild" buying stations at extremely high prices, except maybe Athens, GA. We're thinking of buying some of Cox Radio stock which is trading around $4.50. Next on my list would be Saga. However, I would wait til the end of first quarter. In fact, right about the time the first quarter results are being reported. If you think it's bad now, we haven't seen anything yet.

The Atlanta Business Chronicle should do a story on how business is at stations outside of Atlanta..check with Jay Jacobs in Gainesville at WDUN; Randy Gravley in Ellijay; Sam Thomas or Ken Brady in Calhoun; or even our company where our sales are running 2% ahead of last year, a very good year for us. No doubt, it's not as easy....some times it's hard but none of the above as close to desperation. Of course, print, generally speaking, has been trying to make radio look bad since 1920 when KDKA went on the air.
 
The sad truth is that Cumulus may be one of those companies that folds in the next 36 months. Lew is just spewing this to offset his own worries. Jal41 is right - Cumulus is in terrible shape...and if they do survive the next 36 months...they will be much smaller and will remain in poor shape.

If they want to change, they need a complete over-haul from the top. Most of Lew's team has no idea what the reality of good, local radio is. Just like Clear Channel, they are killing radio...and killing it fast.
 
Get off the "local" aspect of radio. Radio is a business and however that business needs to survive, I say do it. Listeners should be catered to if it helps the bottom line. Same with advertisers. If Cumulus can survive, good for them. If Citadel survives, good for them. Local radio hasn't because technology is too affordable to allow it to.
 
Just met with two key media buyers in new york. the dickey's are right on.
westwood one is done. so are several others. very soon. radio and tv are both retracting.
this is not internet blather. the Dickey's are simply saying, what New York is telling them.
be well friends. send out resumes NOW.
 
"Just met with two key media buyers in new york. the dickey's are right on.
westwood one is done. so are several others. very soon. radio and tv are both retracting.
this is not internet blather. the Dickey's are simply saying, what New York is telling them.
be well friends. send out resumes NOW."

You could take this statement and apply it to a number of other industries in our economy quite easily. This problem is not confined to radio. We are part of a major economic downturn not seen in recent history. Every sector of our economy is going to be affected, and lots of companies with high debt loads are going to go bankrupt. This country is losing close to 300,000 jobs a month.
However, the LAST thing anyone should do in this situation is panic.
Focus on what makes you valuable where you work. Usually that means how you contribute to revenue. If you can write and produce good commercials, come up with good promotional ideas, or come up with creative ways to add clients, you can survive.
And these concepts apply to everyone with a job, not just radio people. It's an unavoidable fact that the economy is going through a major retraction. How you choose to deal with it is up to you.

Back to the subject of the post..........the Dickeys are going to be affected by this downturn as well, no matter how much Lew spins it. They're going to be selling radio stations next year, along with all the other consolidators. I think this is ultimately good for radio. Lew's right about one thing: radio's fundamentals are sound, as is the number of people listening. The problems radio faces were self-induced by the current ownership. . The problems that Lew "observes" about radio were created by himself and the other large group heads. I doubt that the consolidators will be going away, unfortunately. But when their influence is reduced, radio will begin to recover.
 
How fitting..it takes a recession (the natural governor on capitalism) to defeat industry deregulation (the ultimate homage to capitalism).

Short-term losers? People currently at the big radio chains.
Long-term winners? Those very same people plus those currently unemployed.

That's the one good thing about terrestrial radio (and government's role in it.) A Linens N' Things can go out of business, but the 94.9 frequency in Atlanta will never go out of business. Jobs will eventually return and, maybe, even in greater numbers than were eliminated.

Does this precursor a return to "live and local" when Clear Channel and Cumulus have moved on from all of this?
 
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