Dawn the gm is leaving indie 1031 anything to read into this?

[SuperRadioFan]

Right On, David, you've contributed zero ideas on this kind of format because you have no idea what they should do programming-wise except scrap the format. They are not planning to even consider that for a long time. You yourself have said that AAA needs a long time to build an audience. It's tougher in this market than say in Denver where two AAA formats exist. Regardless, we all know it's a boutique format that will struggle to get listeners and ratings. However, there are other stations in this market, in San Diego market etc that also struggle but are still on the air. So the bottom line is what expectations does Bonneville have regarding billing because that is the bottom line.

 

[davideduardo]

So the bottom line is what expectations does Bonneville have regarding billing because that is the bottom line.

Here is my math. They paid just under $140 million. Assuming they have no debt service (cash deal) then the return on investment should be around 8% today, minimum. That means about $11 million net, after taxes. To do that you would have to bill close to or near $30 million. At about $10 million in revenue for a 25-54 share point, that means they have to get about a 3 share. Good power ratio, and they need a 2.5 share.

Otherwise, take the $140 and put it in CA tax free munys, and get your 8%.

Translation: no way can they keep on with around a 1 share. We have 10 weeks of PPM now, and since the PPM is a panel, there will not be much change unless the station itself changes.

 

[SuperRadioFan]

Good analysis and accurate as well I believe. I guess they hope to erode some JACK and KLOS audience and maybe pick up some Indie #s if Indie goes south.

Doesn't look good for Indie for all the reasons you outlined. Perhaps IndieLover should start recording.

 

[BACKnUSSR]

So the AAA conversation has seeped back in.
Its a wonderful format, its truly quality music...but....
it has NEVER worked well in Los Angeles.

Furthermore, has there been a Top 50 market AAA sign-on in the past 15 years that has
been successful? I cannot think of one.

All of the ones that have done well, KBCO, KFOG, WXRT, KINK have been around a long while
and have usually morphed from some classic rock/progressive/ format over time.

Major market AAA sign-ons??? Fine folks have tried it. Odds are seriuosly stacked against you.

 

[BACKnUSSR]

Good analysis and accurate as well I believe. I guess they hope to erode some JACK and KLOS audience and maybe pick up some Indie #s if Indie goes south.

Doesn't look good for Indie for all the reasons you outlined. Perhaps IndieLover should start recording.

Which indie #'s are those??

 

[Indielover]

Good analysis and accurate as well I believe. I guess they hope to erode some JACK and KLOS audience and maybe pick up some Indie #s if Indie goes south.

Doesn't look good for Indie for all the reasons you outlined. Perhaps IndieLover should start recording.

I have quite a library of indie's music from the last 5 years

 

[BACKnUSSR]

"Unlike "Indiefan" I don't have to like a kind of music to like a radio station. KBCO represents usic I truly can not bear to hear, but I think the station and its history are marvelous. Radio stations are not built and programmed to please me or the radio insiders..."

What you fail to realize is to "like" indie (the whole station) IS to like many different musical styles and genres...

So would you LISTEN to KBCO, since you cannot bear to hear the music?

And if "radio stations are not built and programmed" to please you or radio insiders, who are they built and programmed for?? Average radio listeners?? And if so.....would you STILL consider Indie a success on any level?

 

[Radknowski]

David, USSR, Mimi, et al., thank you. You have indirectly answered the question which I posed earlier in this thread regarding Indie and AAA, especially as it applies to Los Angeles.

AAA appears to be "the darling format" of men and women who came up in the business working AOR, then Classic Rock and/or Classic Hits. These types (which would include me when I was in the business) appreciate new music by heritage artists as well as select Classic Rock artists and groups. I'd presume (perhaps inaccurately) that we are 40+ and primarily male (no offense, Mimi.)

I'd have thought AAA would fare better in LA due to the diversity of the population (musicians, artists, etc.) and the "hipness factor," but the analysis and numbers provided by various posters clarify the situation and prove otherwise. The formula provided by David is especially helpful as it applies to market demographics and economics. Thank you. Best regards -"Buffalo" Mike Radknowski

 

[nyc101]

David and all,

Is anybody debating the accuracy of the new PPM panel in LA? Can a system that suddenly doubles or triples a stations ratings and reduces others in half be all that accurate? Why is everybody accepting this new information as holy?
Is Arbitron telling us that the service they have been paid to provide in the past 40 years has been entirely inacurrate, or is the new info entirely inacurrate?

We are talking about the life or death of major market radio properties based on this new information so one should question it when a station such as Indie, who has their strongest base in the Hollywood, Los feliz, Silverlake, Beverly Hills area can show up as having zero listeners in those zip codes.

 

[davideduardo]

We are talking about the life or death of major market radio properties based on this new information so one should question it when a station such as Indie, who has their strongest base in the Hollywood, Los feliz, Silverlake, Beverly Hills area can show up as having zero listeners in those zip codes.

There is no ZIP code proportionality in either the diary or the PPM, so getting returns from any specific ones is not guaranteed.

Indie has a very thin slice of audience. And there are only about a third the number of meters that there were diaries in the old survey period. It's likely that there are not that many meters recording Indie, since it has always been a slim cuming station.

Indie's strongest base always appeared to be the west side split of LA, not the "north of downtown" area.

 

[NewManno1]

Can we go back to the title of this thread. That is a huge move for the GM of INDIE. Do you think she's off to another radio station/company in the market? or maybe something totally different? Or did she know something the others at INDIE do not know....? Verrrry interesting...

 

[nyc101]

Right, Indie is a "boutique" station that is not going for the biggest chunk of the lowest common denominator. They sell on that very point. They seem to be doing well selling to the upscale professionals. So if they have a thinner slice it will be harder to "find" their listeners with less meters. There is no doubt they have listeners in that area so should we all accept that Arbitron is charging more for less accurate information and watch these more unique stations die on the vine?

This seems like the homogenization of radio gone to an extreme.



[/quote]

There is no ZIP code proportionality in either the diary or the PPM, so getting returns from any specific ones is not guaranteed.

Indie has a very thin slice of audience. And there are only about a third the number of meters that there were diaries in the old survey period. It's likely that there are not that many meters recording Indie, since it has always been a slim cuming station.

Indie's strongest base always appeared to be the west side split of LA, not the "north of downtown" area.
[/quote]

 

[davideduardo]

Right, Indie is a "boutique" station that is not going for the biggest chunk of the lowest common denominator. They sell on that very point. They seem to be doing well selling to the upscale professionals. So if they have a thinner slice it will be harder to "find" their listeners with less meters. There is no doubt they have listeners in that area so should we all accept that Arbitron is charging more for less accurate information and watch these more unique stations die on the vine?

What you are saying is that Indie does not sell on the numbers. Then why do you worry that it is so low rated?

 

[nyc101]

Well you're the one saying they should flip so you tell me.


[/quote]

What you are saying is that Indie does not sell on the numbers. Then why do you worry that it is so low rated?
[/quote]

 

[BACKnUSSR]

Can we go back to the title of this thread. That is a huge move for the GM of INDIE. Do you think she's off to another radio station/company in the market? or maybe something totally different? Or did she know something the others at INDIE do not know....? Verrrry interesting...

Not that interesting. She's doing sales at the LA Times.
If you though radio was dying.....newspapers? Sheesh...

 

[nyc101]

Sure, newspapers are suffering but if you're sitting in the Senior VP of Sales chair you're cutting a pretty good check.
Thats a huge step up and now it makes sense why she left.

By the way, It's pretty clear talking to ad agency folks that it's Roy L and gang at CBS that are peppering the Indie flipping rumors.

 

[scooty430]

What strikes me as odd about DE's and a few others' posts about Indie is not that they think Indie will die, but that they seem to have it "in" for Indie. They WANT it to die, and they think it does not even deserve to exist. The same thing seems to happen whenever the subject of AAA comes up. Where is this coming from?

Perhaps some work for a competitor?.... Hmmmm.....

If not, then based on the last few posts, I think it's basically ignornace, and perhaps the fear of having a station out there one doesn't understand. Especially when your sense of self is seemingly based on your being the "smartest guy in town." It's probably frightening to have something around that you kinda don't get.

Indie is not a "little KROQ" that "all sounds the same," but a station that offers perhaps the greatest mix of genres ever to appear on one frequency. I mean seriously: alt-country, hardcore punk, ska, old school heavy metal, classic rock, show tunes..... Do you really think these forms of music all sound the same?

 

[Indielover]

What strikes me as odd about DE's and a few others' posts about Indie is not that they think Indie will die, but that they seem to have it "in" for Indie. They WANT it to die, and they think it does not even deserve to exist. The same thing seems to happen whenever the subject of AAA comes up. Where is this coming from?

Perhaps some work for a competitor?.... Hmmmm.....

If not, then based on the last few posts, I think it's basically ignornace, and perhaps the fear of having a station out there one doesn't understand. Especially when your sense of self is seemingly based on your being the "smartest guy in town." It's probably frightening to have something around that you kinda don't get.

Indie is not a "little KROQ" that "all sounds the same," but a station that offers perhaps the greatest mix of genres ever to appear on one frequency. I mean seriously: alt-country, hardcore punk, ska, old school heavy metal, classic rock, show tunes..... Do you really think these forms of music all sound the same?

Eduardo said in a post to this thread he has no interest in indie's demise...
As far as ALL the music on indie sounding the same, Eduardo said it does...which of course is absurd...I highly doubt he has ever listened long enough to hear ALL the music.

 

[Michael Rivers Kramer]

What strikes me as odd about DE's and a few others' posts about Indie is not that they think Indie will die, but that they seem to have it "in" for Indie. They WANT it to die, and they think it does not even deserve to exist. The same thing seems to happen whenever the subject of AAA comes up. Where is this coming from?

Perhaps some work for a competitor?.... Hmmmm.....

If not, then based on the last few posts, I think it's basically ignornace, and perhaps the fear of having a station out there one doesn't understand. Especially when your sense of self is seemingly based on your being the "smartest guy in town." It's probably frightening to have something around that you kinda don't get.

Indie is not a "little KROQ" that "all sounds the same," but a station that offers perhaps the greatest mix of genres ever to appear on one frequency. I mean seriously: alt-country, hardcore punk, ska, old school heavy metal, classic rock, show tunes..... Do you really think these forms of music all sound the same?

Nothing scary about it... I personally hate seeing it fail because Entravision was willing to buck the norm and try something different. The reality is that this is America and it's all about money in the radio business. The radio airwaves do belong to the people in theory, but you have to have money to participate or be in a demo attractive (read...easily influenced by marketing to spend money) to be programmed for.

The argument I read earlier in this thread is that the audience that Indie targets wouldn't be interested in wearing a PPM. If that were true (which I seriously doubt), it would serve them right for losing their station due to low ratings and lack of revenue because of apathy. Gee where are these people when there's an election? Not vote? No wonder we have Schwarzenegger in office.

The bottom line is that we live in a capitalistic society and you need money to play... money to win own a station and the ability to make money to keep it afloat. I'm not necessarily saying it's a good thing or a bad thing. I'll keep my lefty views out of that one.

I for one am just making observations and like many people are amazed that Entravision ( a publicly traded company with basically three generic format offerings nationwide (Jose, Tricolor and Super Estrella) has kept Indie alive as long as it has.

How does the station bill? David? Anyone?

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Can we go back to the title of this thread. That is a huge move for the GM of INDIE. Do you think she's off to another radio station/company in the market? or maybe something totally different? Or did she know something the others at INDIE do not know....? Verrrry interesting...

Not that interesting. She's doing sales at the LA Times.
If you though radio was dying.....newspapers? Sheesh...

Look for the L.A. Times and KTLA to combine operations. Not unlike what they are attempting to do at their Ft. Lauderdale newspaper and CW station currently. KTLA is going to move out of Hollywood as that property has been sold by Tribune and likely will move in with the L.A. Times. Tribune is the new Jacor with Randy Michaels at the helm of operations.