HD Radio will not boost revenues says J. P. Morgan !

[davideduardo]

Nobody in radio believes HD will increase revenues. It is intended to keep free radio viable, not to increase revenues. Duh!!!!!!!

Many of the HD2 channels already have ads, and the model contemplates ads being there as well. Nobody said it would be commercial free.

Gee David,

I don't think that is what you've said in the past. I've posted the question of ROI for IBOC several times on this and other boards. Seems to me like you've always said that the increased revenue would come form the additional channels. Maybe it will, but I don't see that as happening without a lot of extra work and expense.

For small stations like mine, it's hard to get all "warm and fuzzy" about spending a lot of money without a reasonabe chance of making a positive return on the investment. Adding additional channels merely fragments our potential audience, which doesn't sound all that appealing.

I think a lot of other small station owners feel the same way.

There is really no way to increase revenue, as all you are doing with HD 2 is increasing the fragmentation of the markets. The main HD channel on FM and the AM HD have no way of increasing revenue, as they are simply the same thing as the analog channel but in digital.

The entire purpose of HD is to bring analog free terrestrial radio into the digital world, which offers an opportunity to enhance the image and viability of radio. It's a competitive move against other, alternative, and fully digital delivery systems. It also has the advantage that it sounds better than an iPod or most webcasts and such. It definitely sounds better than satellite music channels.

The return on the investment is based on sustaining the business model for terrestrial free radio. AM is nearly dead in sales demos in the rated markets, and FM will have a much shorter life span without a major move to enhance the system via digital delivery.

 

[zumahans]

-----> Gee David, I don't think that is what you've said in the past.

Gee Davuid, there seems to be a lot of that going around.


---->The entire purpose of HD is to bring analog free terrestrial radio into the digital world, which offers an opportunity to enhance the image and viability of radio. It's a competitive move against other, alternative, and fully digital delivery systems.

Wow, the unvarniushed truth. Forget about those new audio channels, we're just going to give you what you are (not) getting now.


----->It definitely sounds better than satellite music channels.


So the only reason you want me to pay $200 for a new radio is to make 16 minutes of commericals per hour, spliced into the same old same old, sound better?

----->The return on the investment is based on sustaining the business model for terrestrial free radio. AM is nearly dead in sales demos in the rated markets, and FM will have a much shorter life span without a major move to enhance the system via digital delivery.

Man, the stakes ARE high for you big corporations. Thank you for your candor. WiFi and sat radio are going to kill you anyway, and you are just campaigning for a less-short life span.

 

[bjh]

IBOC, a fraud and a failure = "HD Radio will not boost revenues says J. P. Morgan" + "IBiquity Digital's Make-or-Break Point Approaches"

 

[IBOCRocks]

IBOC, a fraud and a failure = "HD Radio will not boost revenues says J. P. Morgan" + "IBiquity Digital's Make-or-Break Point Approaches"

BJH=SayNoToIBOC

 

[zumahans]

IBOC, a fraud and a failure = "HD Radio will not boost revenues says J. P. Morgan" + "IBiquity Digital's Make-or-Break Point Approaches"

BJH=SayNoToIBOC

But his point seems to make sense. D-E pretty much agrees, that HD Radio is a defensive move to preserve the FM band and nothing more.

 

[IBOCRocks]

IBOC, a fraud and a failure = "HD Radio will not boost revenues says J. P. Morgan" + "IBiquity Digital's Make-or-Break Point Approaches"

BJH=SayNoToIBOC

But his point seems to make sense. D-E pretty much agrees, that HD Radio is a defensive move to preserve the FM band and nothing more.

Right, but that does not make it a fraud and a failure (interestingly enough, SayNo's favorite word for IBOC is "fraud") as BJH/SayNoToIBOC is asserting.

 

[zumahans]

----> Right, but that does not make it a fraud and a failure.

Not yet.

 

[davideduardo]

But his point seems to make sense. D-E pretty much agrees, that HD Radio is a defensive move to preserve the FM band and nothing more.

And since nobody in the industry has suggested that there is any other reason, it must be true.

 

[zumahans]

---->And since nobody in the industry has suggested that there is any other reason, it must be true.


There you have it. Argument over, close this forum.

 

[davideduardo]

Man, the stakes ARE high for you big corporations. Thank you for your candor. WiFi and sat radio are going to kill you anyway, and you are just campaigning for a less-short life span.

Hmm. You quit including the iPod in this... did you read the reports today, too? When they give away iPods with the purchase of Macs, you know you have something that is not cool anymore. Cool is never free.

"Has the iPod peaked?
Apple CEO Steve Jobs is widely expected to launch a new generation of iPods today - most likely including more video capabilities or even an iPod phone. But analysts now warn that the iPod may go the way of the Sony Walkman - after 60 million units sold, it's no longer cool with kids"


And satellite is stalled, with revised investor guidance for this quarter and next by XM, an SEC investigation of inflated subscriber numbers, increasing churn rates and ongoing losses.

 

[zumahans]

My point exactly, David, thank you for reinforcing it again.

Kids today are always, always looking for the next mnujsic source.

40 years ago, AM.

20 years ago, FM.

10 years ago, CDs.

5 years ago, Napster.

1 year ago, IPods.

Next: who knows? WiMax streaming audio, cellphone radio, XM, maybe even HD Radio (guffaw guffaw snort) .

I bet it scares the hell out of you to know that two generations of Americans have been raised without radio, and are maturing into your artificial "money demographics."

 

[autopaint-1]

"I bet it scares the hell out of you to know that two generations of Americans have been raised without radio, and are maturing into your artificial "money demographics."

Where do you get the idea that young people don't listen to the radio. What about all those young voices who listen and call to Radio Disney? Are they actors?
By the way, I own an I-Pod, a VCR, a TV a computer and on and on and yet, I still listen to radio. I wonder how I've gotten to be so versatile.

 

[zumahans]

----->Where do you get the idea that young people don't listen to the radio. What about all those young voices who listen and call to Radio Disney? Are they actors?

A lot of them are, yes. And most of the others are in the 360, recorded for use again and again.

Have you ever, EVER seen one of the Radio Disney booths at Anaheim staffed and broadcasting?

Trust me, I used to work for mouse TV. Mouse radio is a computer on La Cienega Blvd near Culvert City staffed 40 hours a week.

But I was referring to teens, tweens and college students. Deluded Eduardo himself has conceded that listenership below 25 is very low and dropping. He says radio has NEVER served teens, something I think he is just plain wrong at.

------>By the way, I own an I-Pod, a VCR, a TV a computer and on and on and yet, I still listen to radio. I wonder how I've gotten to be so versatile.

Yeah, I wonder about you too.

 

[davideduardo]

My point exactly, David, thank you for reinforcing it again.

Kids today are always, always looking for the next mnujsic source.

40 years ago, AM.

20 years ago, FM.

10 years ago, CDs.

5 years ago, Napster.

1 year ago, IPods.

Next: who knows? WiMax streaming audio, cellphone radio, XM, maybe even HD Radio (guffaw guffaw snort) .

I bet it scares the hell out of you to know that two generations of Americans have been raised without radio, and are maturing into your artificial "money demographics."

Two generations is 40 years. Maybe you meant "decades." In either case, it is not true. 25-54 has the same shares and cume as 20, 30, 40 years ago.

You are confusing personal music collection techniques with broadcast systems. They are not as either/or as you make them out to be, and in many cases are truly synergistic.

 

[davideduardo]

----->Where do you get the idea that young people don't listen to the radio. What about all those young voices who listen and call to Radio Disney? Are they actors?

A lot of them are, yes. And most of the others are in the 360, recorded for use again and again.

Have you ever, EVER seen one of the Radio Disney booths at Anaheim staffed and broadcasting?

Trust me, I used to work for mouse TV. Mouse radio is a computer on La Cienega Blvd near Culvert City staffed 40 hours a week.

But I was referring to teens, tweens and college students. Deluded Eduardo himself has conceded that listenership below 25 is very low and dropping. He says radio has NEVER served teens, something I think he is just plain wrong at.

------>By the way, I own an I-Pod, a VCR, a TV a computer and on and on and yet, I still listen to radio. I wonder how I've gotten to be so versatile.

Yeah, I wonder about you too.

You are misquoting me again. Teen listening is of in cume about 6% since 1985. That is surprisingly low, considering that in the laat 15 years, radio has had no interest at all in programming for teens (exchept where teens are used as a way to build awareness to get 18-24 and 18-34).

Since 1998, Teen cume is off 3.1%, and TSL is off about 15.3%, again unusual considering the fact we do not seek them.

18-24 is off 1% in cume since 1998 (Spring 1998 vs 2006) based on 10 markets I averaged (no weighting for market size, just a rough idea) and it is off 13.4% in TSL.

25-54 is basically flat from 1998.

Teen cume is still 94% of all teens, and TSL has gone from 16:1|5 to 13:45 hours weekly. Surprise: 8 years ago, before satellite, iPods and all that stuff, teens were not heavy users. Another surprise... they were not heavy users in 1975, either... because teens are active in other stuff.

 

[zumahans]

Any way we can see your source for this, to see what the numbers say for themselves?

Didn't think so.

You must think we're idiots to believe all the numbers you pull from your orifice.

 

[IBOCRocks]

You must think we're idiots to believe all the numbers you pull from your orifice.

No, that's not why we think you're idiots.

I'm just kidding. Had to get you back for your jab eariler today!

 

[zumahans]

--->No, that's not why we think you're idiots.
---->I'm just kidding. Had to get you back for your jab eariler today!

And it was good. It's nice to get an out-loud chuckle here.

 

[IBOCRocks]

--->No, that's not why we think you're idiots.
---->I'm just kidding. Had to get you back for your jab eariler today!

And it was good. It's nice to get an out-loud chuckle here.

I'm occasionally good for it. Emphasis on occasionally!

 

[davideduardo]

Any way we can see your source for this, to see what the numbers say for themselves?

Didn't think so.

You must think we're idiots to believe all the numbers you pull from your orifice.

The numbers are right out of Maximi$er, which every subscribed radio staiton and every ad agency in the country has (in a time buyer version).

This is the data that drives $22 billion or so in radio advertising, and can be verified by any other subscriber with access to multiple markets.

Just because you do not have the money and the job to get Arbitron does not mean the facts are wrong.

I jus tthink you are jealous because you have no way of supporting your argument, while I do.