Is the whole Radio landscape about to change again in the next 10 years?

[Skynet74]

I've had an increasing interest in listening to out of market stations via internet streams. The simple fact that there now exists a choice where there was once none, is very interesting to me. Up until about 10 years ago, you would turn on your radio and have a choice of about 50 stations. Then a little thing called Real Audio came along. Radio stations started streaming over the internet and in most cases it just sounded horrible. But over the past five years there has been a dramatic improvement in sound. This has got to make local stations pretty nervous. I usually feed the audio into my Stereo system and it sounds pretty damn good.

As a kid I used to dream of my parents letting me purchase one of those huge backyard satellite dishes with the hope that I could start listening to radio stations all over the world. (At that time I didn't fully realize that most stations don't put their signal up on the bird) But that's besides the point. The bottom line is that we now have access to thousands of radio stations from all over the world right from the click of a mouse.

The part that I think should make local radio stations nervous is that not only does the quality of these streams sound better than ever. But they are also expanding away from the computer. You can now purchase whole house transmitters which will send a wireless signal to any Radio in your home to listen to these streams. To make things even more interesting, a company in Rhode Island has now developed a system to bring these streams into your car as well! See link below.

http://radio.about.com/library/weekly/aa073003a.htm

We are no longer a 50 station universe. Local stations no longer have us by the snowballs. If we hate the radio in our particular market, we can now just listen to stations in hundreds of others markets instead! Today I'll pretend to live in Phoenix. Tomorrow perhaps New York or Los Angeles. Technology is just a great thing for the consumer. But the One Million Dollar Question is:

HOW WILL THIS EFFECT THE RADIO LANDSCAPE IN THE FUTURE?

 

[Nizam]

If you're just looking for a talk station to talk about national news, or a music station for the music, sure, it means you have a million and one stations to choose from. On the other hand, if you're looking for local, I think they'll still be a market for stations around here. If anything, it will force stations into being more localized, and providing different content to a listener base that can get the TRL Countdown, or Jeff Foxworthy's countdown via a stream. Forces local creativity.

 

[Skynet74]

Good point. I wonder if a survey has ever been done asking people how important local content is to them. I know that to lots of people it's very important. But on the other hand I also know of people who couldn't care less if a station broadcasts from Pluto. As long as it's entertaining.

 

[Moonstruck]

Theoretically yes if something is entertaining people don't care where it's coming from but if people weren't automatically drawn to what's local then everybody would be listening to Boston radio in Providence. I do agree though that the long term prognosis is grim but mainly for stations aiming for younger listeners who could care less. Right now stations like B101 and HJY are OK but the long term will be a different story. CHR, urban, and alternative stations will take big hits with their listeners being more savvy when it comes to getting what they want when they want it without waiting for radio to give it to them.

 

[Bongwater]

Local radio will not only survive in the streaming internet world, it will THRIVE. Because the beautiful thing about the internet and local radio is it keeps people who are far away from home in touch with home. It does much more than help the homesick. It gives people around the world a taste of local flavor. If people really like what they're hearing, they'll probably be interested in other things about the town in which the station they're listening to is coming from. They may buy a product from a local advertiser, may make a vacation plan to that town. And if they really like it, may even relocate there.

And local radio's only obligation is to STAY local.....

 

[Skynet74]

My thinking says that every additional option a listener has to go elsewhere is going to be bad for a local station. It kind of seems like common sense really. Television is bad for radio, the internet is bad for radio, ipods are bad for radio. All these options chip away at the local audience. Now even those people who like the radio have 5,000 new stations to choose from at their fingertips! On the local front it spells out G-R-I-M. Once people who are in their cars can access all these cool choices, things are going to change dramaticly. I sure hope that Radio stations are paying attention to this changing technology and are preparing for it. Local audiences are soon going to dwindle more and more each day. That is truthfully the last thing any radio station wants to think about. Their local audience going away. But it's going to happen. There is no stopping technology. So I hope they are ready for it.

On the other hand.... It's kind of crazy though when you realize that Radio stations may be digging their own grave by putting their signals online! They are actually creating an atmosphere where people have all these additional choices. Are radio stations harming themselves in the long run by streaming? If every radio station that streams suddenly stopped, than we would have no choice but to listen to local radio again. Wouldn't that make local stations happy to have all their local listeners back? You would think so. It's a very strange situation if you actually sit and think about it. Radio stations may be killing themselves!

Well... either way click this link and watch how much fun you'll have http://www.mikesradioworld.com

Options are always nice.

 

[oaktree]

Local content is for the better of radio, of course. But schlocky local radio is horrible ... and the death of radio, particularly AM. With the conglomerates like Clear Channel doing away with local news and entire news departments, with local cohesion becoming a :30 "Community Calendar" once, maybe twice a day and with low-grade programming -- be it brokered or just poor -- and increasingly automated ... the picture is not good.

The look for ten years from now is worse. Why would, in the age of economies, budgets, investors, stockholders and Wall Street go back in time, when the choices and options are more available and, now, easily, available to one and all? There are so many options on terrestrial radio, but the "choices" are few ... with so much syndicated "national" programming and so many stations airing it due to budget watching.

There are, in fact, too many stations.

Further, people today may accept the "dumbing down" of media and have lower attention spans, but they are more sophisticated.

It's easier than ever to literally program your own radio station via the Internet ... or your iPod (with 110-million of them out there,) and the choices just keep on comin'.

And yet, some on the FCC want to further expand deregulation to let the "conglomerates" take over more stations in a market, as well as relax the cross-ownership rules as a way to bail-out the faltering newspaper business.

It's about content ... but in many ways, content is going in the wrong direction. "Less is more" ... indeed.

 

[mistermicrophone]

I've had an increasing interest in listening to out of market stations via internet streams. The simple fact that there now exists a choice where there was once none, is very interesting to me. Up until about 10 years ago, you would turn on your radio and have a choice of about 50 stations. Then a little thing called Real Audio came along. Radio stations started streaming over the internet and in most cases it just sounded horrible. But over the past five years there has been a dramatic improvement in sound. This has got to make local stations pretty nervous. I usually feed the audio into my Stereo system and it sounds pretty damn good.

As a kid I used to dream of my parents letting me purchase one of those huge backyard satellite dishes with the hope that I could start listening to radio stations all over the world. (At that time I didn't fully realize that most stations don't put their signal up on the bird) But that's besides the point. The bottom line is that we now have access to thousands of radio stations from all over the world right from the click of a mouse.

The part that I think should make local radio stations nervous is that not only does the quality of these streams sound better than ever. But they are also expanding away from the computer. You can now purchase whole house transmitters which will send a wireless signal to any Radio in your home to listen to these streams. To make things even more interesting, a company in Rhode Island has now developed a system to bring these streams into your car as well! See link below.

http://radio.about.com/library/weekly/aa073003a.htm

We are no longer a 50 station universe. Local stations no longer have us by the snowballs. If we hate the radio in our particular market, we can now just listen to stations in hundreds of others markets instead! Today I'll pretend to live in Phoenix. Tomorrow perhaps New York or Los Angeles. Technology is just a great thing for the consumer. But the One Million Dollar Question is:

HOW WILL THIS EFFECT THE RADIO LANDSCAPE IN THE FUTURE?

I don't think the fact that stations are streaming is going to effect the average listener. The fact that you are on a radio board and in the industry makes those options seem vast to you. The average PRO-FM listener isn't going to seek out KIIS-FM in Los Angeles the way us radio geeks do just to listen online.

 

[jeffryan]

This is the way I see it. In 10 years, the majority of the AM dial (if it still exists) will be brokered. What you used to enjoy on AM (WPRO and WHJJ mainly) will eventually move to FM signals. Music on FM will be in its dying days. There will be SO MANY portals where music will be available, that most companies will abandon it for something with far more growth potential. I think urban and country music will still be around given the fact that those audiences are typically lower income audiences and as such will not have easy access to those alternative portals. But even their days will be numbered.

If you're a radio owner, and you specialize in playing music, now is the time to sell your station... especially if you can't find opportunities for more and more non-traditional revenue. The traditional spot will be even more ineffective than it is now.

The future of radio is spoken word. Music will be available everywhere (even moreso than it is today). Buddy Cianci, for example, will not.

You will start to see this transition in the major markets first, but not so quickly in the smaller markets, where radio is still relevant, believe it or not.

 

[Nizam]

The biggest problem with streaming right now, atleast around here is that you cannot play commercial breaks, due to technicalities with national contracts.

 

[Skynet74]

The biggest problem with streaming right now, atleast around here is that you cannot play commercial breaks, due to technicalities with national contracts.

I know that is the way it used to be. But I am honestly hearing more and more local spots. Many of these streams seems to be untouched now and no different from the terrestrial signal they are broadcasting. I'm not saying all of them since I actually heard some commercials blocked on the Newsradio 1010 WINS stream this afternoon. But I am saying that there does not seem to be as much blocked as a couple of years ago.

 

[Nizam]

I'm just going off memory, when I interned at WBSM 6-7 years ago, they had to stop streaming because of the natrional spot contracts, as well as being unable to stream sporting broadcasts.

 

[oaktree]

Well-thought post, Jeff.

I think you about hit it where it counts. And...where it hurts.

Good thoughts!

 

[Speaker of Truth]

Anybody see the report in Inside Radio that the only uptick in listening is among listeners 50-54? And that the numbers among younger demos continue to drop?

Big Market AMs--WRKO in Boston, WTAM in Cleveland, KMOX in St. Louis-- may continue for a while--but they'll end up heading to FM in the next five to 10 years..

If the FCC ever approves the idea of shifting AMs to LPFMs the AM band will be gone within a decade..

We're seeing a generation growing up now that won't need radio..period..they can program their I-Pod or cell phone to play whatever they want..whenever they want..you can program your own version of a radio station right now on Yahoo! for free..

Who is going to buy all these radio stations that some of you are advocating selling right now? If we've learned anything from the GoodRadio/Frequency LLC saga, there are no local buyers who want to pour their money in a black hole..

Plenty of companies that thought they could reinvent the Clear Channel Playbook--NextMedia being among them--are looking to get out--now--but finding no takers..

Just like newspapers, much of radio's content will be streamed..and if cross ownership becomes a reality, radio news will be dead..newspaper or internet folks can write it, one person can read it--if you need that at all--and so it goes..

 

[jeffryan]

Well-thought post, Jeff.

I think you about hit it where it counts. And...where it hurts.

Good thoughts!

Thanks, oaktree. Radio is sadly mistaken if it thinks it has a future in music. Music is ubiquitious. Radio needs to focus on something that it can hold a monopoly on. Spoken word is pretty much it.

Take WEEI. People will never stop listening to that radio station. It offers something unique that you cannot find anywhere else. And in Providence.... it's already on FM! Expect to see that trend continue.

Don't get me wrong. I love being a jock. I've jocked at more than a half dozen stations in the last 10 years. I just see the writing on the wall. However, the majority of the industry seems to want to bury their heads in the sand when it comes to the relevence of radio in its present state.

 

[Runrigger]

You are realistic about this Jeff, which is unusual given that most radio people exist in that protective world where nothing will ever change. I've been guilty of it myself. Unfortunately the rank & file are the ones who might have some answers, but they're not running things. I know enough about corporate environments to know that the suits can be tools who are so far removed from reality that they honestly don't know it.

But with sarcasm I can say I think everything will turn out fine because radio will just pressure Arbitron to change methodology over & over until stations with clout show good numbers. It's happening now with the PPM. Granted it isn't being worded that way per se, but there's a lot of kicking & screaming about improving things until the results are valid. The translation is that radio wants things changed until they like the results.

Just like in the real world: arrive at a conclusion then tweak, tweak, & tweak again until you come up with some supposed facts that support that conclusion. Radio is a business & has to be or everyone will be working for 1980 salaries, but companies that are totally sales-driven always fail in the long run.