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iSuppli’s forecast of U.S. digital radio shipments for HD Radio

You "think we're being a bit optimistic", do ya' PocketRadio? PLEASE, tell us the research that YOU HAVE DONE (not a link to someone else, but information that YOU have gathered) that leads you to believe we're "being a bit optimistic". We're all waiting breathlessly......wait, maybe we should take a breath. This could take a while!
 
Mike Walker said:
You "think we're being a bit optimistic", do ya' PocketRadio? PLEASE, tell us the research that YOU HAVE DONE (not a link to someone else, but information that YOU have gathered) that leads you to believe we're "being a bit optimistic". We're all waiting breathlessly......wait, maybe we should take a breath. This could take a while!
Click to expand...

C'mon Mike it all stems from those bridge ratings. They're gonna start charging and relocate to the NY area. There, they will change the name to the toll bridge ratings. Can't you picture it now? Radio, television, its all gone. No one is interested in free entertainment and news any more, at least not professionally delivered. Those days are over. See, bridge has found a way to poll the fetus. Not those people who are around now. Their all gonna die soon, at least within the next 90 years or so, but if we can get the fetus interested, think about it for a moment. I don't know of one fetus who listens to the radio or watches television. That proves that those two ancient forms of media are dead. As for me, I intend to hum until that soon to be arriving infrastructure arrives... 99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles of beer........look for this post soon to be seen in the take it outside room nationwide.
 
DavidEduardo said:
Note that in just 4 years, HD radio shipments will exceed satellite radio shipments.
Click to expand...

That will be because everyone will already have a satellite radio. :p

j/k... I think the only way HD Radio will be that successful in 4 years is if iBiquity and the broadcasters continue to promote the s*** out if it, and the broadcasters keep their HD2 and HD3 streams as free of commercials as they possibly can.

I am not a big fan of satellite, but you can bet that XM and Sirius, whether joined at the hip or not, won't be sitting still. They'll roll out stream after stream of higher-def audio over the next few years after satellite upgrades. I wouldn't be surprised if they attack the larger local markets, too, with music and talk streams that put the "local" back into radio.
 
DavidEduardo said:
PocketRadio said:
iSuppli’s forecast of U.S. digital radio SHIPMENTS for HD Radio in 2007 is 919,000 units:

http://www.isuppli.com/news/default.asp?id=7659

Bridge Ratings recently downgraded the estimated number of HD radios SOLD in 2007, at 1.5 million units:

http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_1.17.07.HDPercep.htm

I think, we are being a bit optimistic, Bridge Ratings.
Click to expand...

Note that in just 4 years, HD radio shipments will exceed satellite radio shipments.
Click to expand...

Prove it - at least people are buying Satellite radios, at a fraction of the price of HD radios.
 
Philip J. Smith said:
DavidEduardo said:
Note that in just 4 years, HD radio shipments will exceed satellite radio shipments.
Click to expand...

That will be because everyone will already have a satellite radio. :p

j/k... I think the only way HD Radio will be that successful in 4 years is if iBiquity and the broadcasters continue to promote the s*** out if it, and the broadcasters keep their HD2 and HD3 streams as free of commercials as they possibly can.

I am not a big fan of satellite, but you can bet that XM and Sirius, whether joined at the hip or not, won't be sitting still. They'll roll out stream after stream of higher-def audio over the next few years after satellite upgrades. I wouldn't be surprised if they attack the larger local markets, too, with music and talk streams that put the "local" back into radio.
Click to expand...

Heavy promotion of HD Radio, over the past year, has resulted in little consumer interest - iBiquty will run out of time, at some point. Successful technologies, such as gaming systems (PS3/Xbox) never have to be promoted - they just sell themselves.
 
The Bridge Ratings data is very questionable. Even 700WLW's hero Mark Ramsey says so. He was complaining a while back that all the trades quote them without looking into their methodology (or lack of it.)

Bridge Ratings does mall polls and somehow extrapolate them into the buying habits of hundreds of millions of Americans over the next 20 years. How? Your guess is as good as mine.

But the iSuppli information is interesting. I have no idea about their methodology, but the data they have is promising for HD Radio. 919,000 this year and 2,551,000 next year. In 2009 we achieve parity with XM and Sirius and in 2010 we pass them by over two million units.

By 2012, we're looking at almost 17 million units sold annually.

If their numbers prove to be accurate, there will be almost 48 million HD Radios in circulation at the end of 2012. That ain't bad!
 
PocketRadio said:
Heavy promotion of HD Radio, over the past year, has resulted in little consumer interest - iBiquty will run out of time, at some point.
Click to expand...

As I pointed out to your alter ego a while back, while iBiquity may have a limited reserve of cash, if they don't make it, someone will buy the technology and will make it. Maybe someone with more generous licensing policies that will result in even more HD stations on the air.

One of the broadcast equipment suppliers would be a likely suitor. I can see a future where Harris, Broadcast Electronics or Nautel own the technology.

Of course, that's ignoring the investment companies like Clear Channel have made in iBiquity. If iBiquity were to run out of money, Clear Channel certainly isn't. Maybe the big broadcasters will end up with it.
 
PocketRadio said:
Heavy promotion of HD Radio, over the past year, has resulted in little consumer interest - iBiquty will run out of time, at some point. Successful technologies, such as gaming systems (PS3/Xbox) never have to be promoted - they just sell themselves.
Click to expand...

The promotion is "paid" for by the HD Consortium, not iBiquity. And it has been running 9 months, not a year.

Sirius and XM are not making money, either. And they are not financed by the radio industry, which iBiquity, in part, is.
 
Find any retailer company that have sold more than 1,000 HD radio of any model for the '04, '05, or '06. The iSuppli's forecasts of past years are way off base and so it seems are their future forecasts. If there were any "real" figures that were good enough to be quoted, they would be. Cruthfield alone hasn't sold more than a few hundred HD radios a year. Add it up, folks.
 
DavidEduardo said:
PocketRadio said:
Heavy promotion of HD Radio, over the past year, has resulted in little consumer interest - iBiquty will run out of time, at some point. Successful technologies, such as gaming systems (PS3/Xbox) never have to be promoted - they just sell themselves.
Click to expand...

The promotion is "paid" for by the HD Consortium, not iBiquity. And it has been running 9 months, not a year.

Sirius and XM are not making money, either. And they are not financed by the radio industry, which iBiquity, in part, is.
Click to expand...

According to the USA Today article, HD Radio has been around since 2002:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columnist/kimkomando/2007-03-15-hd-radio_N.htm

Boy, such consumer apathy for a technology that has been around for 5 years. And, did you notice the first statement, that HD Radio is finally being "pushed" by manufacturers and radio stations - successful technologies do not have to be "pushed" onto consumers. No doubt, few HD radios have been sold, and many returned - these radio are just sitting on store shelves (when I talked with our local Radio Shack, few have been sold). How long can manufactures/retailers produce and stock HD radios, since they are not selling - as soon as, retailers argreeements are up with the HD Radio Alliance/iBiquity, these HD radios will quickly be replaced with other merchandise. I never stated that the HD promotion is being paid by iBiquity.
 
EasyPeazy said:
PocketRadio said:
Heavy promotion of HD Radio, over the past year, has resulted in little consumer interest - iBiquty will run out of time, at some point.
Click to expand...

As I pointed out to your alter ego a while back, while iBiquity may have a limited reserve of cash, if they don't make it, someone will buy the technology and will make it. Maybe someone with more generous licensing policies that will result in even more HD stations on the air.

One of the broadcast equipment suppliers would be a likely suitor. I can see a future where Harris, Broadcast Electronics or Nautel own the technology.

Of course, that's ignoring the investment companies like Clear Channel have made in iBiquity. If iBiquity were to run out of money, Clear Channel certainly isn't. Maybe the big broadcasters will end up with it.
Click to expand...

No one is going to invest in a dying technology.
 
EasyPeazy said:
The Bridge Ratings data is very questionable. Even 700WLW's hero Mark Ramsey says so. He was complaining a while back that all the trades quote them without looking into their methodology (or lack of it.)

Bridge Ratings does mall polls and somehow extrapolate them into the buying habits of hundreds of millions of Americans over the next 20 years. How? Your guess is as good as mine.

But the iSuppli information is interesting. I have no idea about their methodology, but the data they have is promising for HD Radio. 919,000 this year and 2,551,000 next year. In 2009 we achieve parity with XM and Sirius and in 2010 we pass them by over two million units.

By 2012, we're looking at almost 17 million units sold annually.

If their numbers prove to be accurate, there will be almost 48 million HD Radios in circulation at the end of 2012. That ain't bad!
Click to expand...

The iSuppli numbers are for units shipped, not sold - how long do you think this can go on, with few HD radios being sold; stores have only so much shelf and warehouse space.
 
Ray22 said:
Find any retailer company that have sold more than 1,000 HD radio of any model for the '04, '05, or '06. The iSuppli's forecasts of past years are way off base and so it seems are their future forecasts. If there were any "real" figures that were good enough to be quoted, they would be. Cruthfield alone hasn't sold more than a few hundred HD radios a year. Add it up, folks.
Click to expand...

With Tweeter going out of business, so goes the I-Sonic - I guess, they are not selling a zillion HD radios. Every newspaper, retailer, and supplier seem to be on the HD Radio hype bandwagon.
 
Yeah, because Tweeter was the only company that sold Polk. Wait...Polk has been in business for more than three decades, since long before Tweeter existed. Get a freakin' life!
 
PocketRadio said:
No one is going to invest in a dying technology.
Click to expand...

I disagree that the technology is "dying" as it's just getting started, but all of the companies I listed already have a significant investment in HD Radio.

BE, Harris and Nautel have already invested a significant amount of money in designing and manufacturing products for HD Radio. BE has even bought other companies that had already developed solutions and integrated them with their own offerings.

Then there's Clear Channel. They have more stations broadcasting HD than anyone else. Think they'll just let it go? Think again!

As much as you might like to fantasize about iBiquity dying, HD Radio is here to stay. Too many people have too much invested in it already to just let it go.

iBiquity might go belly up (doubtful) but the technology will live on with another owner, another owner that is probably much better funded.
 
PocketRadio said:
The iSuppli numbers are for units shipped, not sold - how long do you think this can go on, with few HD radios being sold; stores have only so much shelf and warehouse space.
Click to expand...

You're starting with the flawed assumption that nobody is going to be buying the radios. If you read iSuppli's text, they clealy believe the radios will be selling.
 
Exactly...people post links to things not having read, or absorbed what the material says. Kind of amusing when they think they're "bashing" HD, but in fact are posting material that shows/predicts pretty substantial growth. Reading comprehension is really a great skill.
 
Speaking of reading comprehension, Mike, I wonder how many of you Hybrid Digital boosters actually read that “ISuppli” item carefully.

Did you see this?

“The major problem for digital radio is the simple fact that good old analog FM radio ain’t that bad,” said Richard Robinson, principal analyst for automotive electronics at the market-research firm iSuppli Corp.
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He goes on to say that there's "a steep change in quality" when you switch from AM to FM, but there's "no apparent improvement in quality" when you switch from terrestrial FM to satellite, and that has been a problem for satellite. And of course, only the most obtuse reader could miss the implication that this applies equally to any terrestrial digital radio system that uses heavy-handed, lossy compression!

BTW, I know that many of you who have worked in AM trasmitter rooms know how good an AM signal can sound when you take the signal from the modulation monitor, or from a very high quality AM tuner like the old McKay Dymek. But are techno-antiquarians (like Tom Wells and me) the only guys on this board who realize how good AM can sound -- at least during the day, when you don't have to worry about "monkey chatter" and 10-kc heterodyne beats from the skywaves of adjacents -- on some high-quality vintage radios?)
 
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