nmoore6676 said:
My question is why put down KKGO or any other station with less than a 4 (or 3, or even a 2) share? By looking at the signal locater by Zip Code site I count over 60 supposedly possible stations by levels but half or more of those are actually lost in the noise anyway so that leaves maybe 20 to 25, essentially tenable. If you divide that pie and if you assumed equal listenership where does that put you, share wise?
I'm not putting down KKGO. I am putting it in perspective. In the sales demos, there are 20 or so stations that do better by getting higher audience shares.
There are, per BIA, 92 stations licensed to the LA Metropolitan Survey Area. And there are a few dozen or so from outside the market in adjacent counties that are capable of getting at least some listening in the LA MSA.
That means there is less than 1 share per station on a "level playing field". The fact is that only 58 stations show up with a 0.1 or more in the PPM book that came out last Monday. But, like the infomercials say, "there's more!" The top 10 stations have roughly 43% of the audience. And the top 12 have just about half of the audience.
That means that the other eighty LA MSA stations and the out-of-metro stations have 50 shares to divide.
Now I realize there will never be a division such as that but my point is with so many stations there can’t be many 5 (or even 4) shares.
The top 12 stations all have from a 3.1 to a 5.8. 5 have a 4 or over.
And Arbitron takes measurement for this entire market where there are stations listed that I can not hear from my home or where I normally travel. So even if I had a meter or diary I couldn't’t count for all of them.
Arbitron has divided the two-county market into a whole bunch of geographical sub-regions. These include the subdivision of LA County into regions, and then there are High Density Hispanic and Black areas (HDBA's and HDHA's), all of which have metered households in proportion to the population size of each of the areas.
So if a station covers only a part of the market, Arbitron's geographical proportionality system would guarantee that the area it does covered is sampled in proportion to the population in that area. Smaller stations are on a relatively level playing field insofar as the way meters are distributed. Where they are not on an equal basis is in the ability to compete, because people who move around the market from home to work and while out will not use a station that can't "accompany" them at all times and places as much as one that does. This is the same issue that affects/affected AM daytimers back in the last century when AM was more viable.
I therefore maintain that either system is seriously flawed and is only an estimate.
All polls are estimates based on a statistical sample. The Arbitron printed books used to say "Audience Estimates" on the frontispiece.
Unless they attached meters to every single radio receiver, which smacks of “Big Brother”, we will never really know how many are actually listening at any given time.
No, but we can come amazingly close. And the alternative, a census, would cost more each time than the gross billings of every station in the market.
The way we know a poll works is to do a replication study. That means sampling more than one group of the same size. If the results are statistically the same (meaning that they are within the margin of error the users, in this case advertisers, will accept) then the sample is big enough. Adding more sample will not, then, increase reliability within the given margin of error (there are other ways of doing replication, such as doing a large sample and comparing subsets selected via a random number generator, etc.).
The samples used for ratings are mostly determined by what the market's stations can afford.
Even then the size of the area and resulting reception issues would make it of questionable value as it is being used for a marketing tool.
Ratings are used predominantly for sales.
And since there is proportionality in the geographic regions of the market, all signals are eqally able to demonstate their ability to get audience in the areas they do cover.