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Netflix Chief Predicts Death Of Broadcast TV By 2030

That is not entirely accurate, to make it accurate you'd have to say, "the broadcast networks and stations still outperform every other platform by a large, yet steadily diminishing, margin." add that disclaimer, and your statement becomes meaningful.
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If the major networks that broadcast via local affiliates only get around a 30 share of viewing in prime time and often much less in fringe and daytime and late nights, how can you say they, collectively, outperform the group of cable channels that has the bulk of viewing?
 
Still, it's rare that one single cable channel gets more than a 10 share for a show. What is making cable workable is a single company can own multiple cable channels. That's a great way to make a pile of money. I'd say given that, the days of broadcast network ownership limits are pretty short.
 
The basis of the "ecosystem" is scripted shows.
And that, if anything, is what will kill linear television: the "basis of the ecosystem" is something for which the technology is ill-suited for, so people like you blame the technology for the way the technology is used. It's so hard to see the use of it because so many people have a different view of what it is and that view doesn't make it look flattering, in part because the powers that be prioritize the uses that are popular behind the uses the technology is better suited for.
Slamming? You just pointed out the basic limitation of "linear" or broadcast television. Each channel is one size fits all. Limited bandwidth. No choice. And part of the problem is the old-line, terrestrial "linear" networks still trying after 88 years to be all things to all people - doing both scripted/scheduled shows and event programming, despite the inherent conflict. The old-line, terrestrial networks need to adopt formatting, like radio did. Thanks to cable, satellite and even HD sub-channels, there is now enough bandwidth.
I use "linear television" as a catch-all term to describe broadcast and cable channels, but not the Internet - places where shows come on when the powers that be say they come on, laid out in a continuous, linear schedule. It may seem that I use it interchangably with broadcast because the linear television market is badly oversaturated and I think cable channels are more fungible than broadcast ones if the broadcast industry doesn't screw it up and allow everyone else to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Digital terrestrial television has fallen far short of its potential because most of the biggest media companies, including the owners of at least three of the big four networks, also have interests in cable channels, and by the time the digital transition happened cable networks' ability to collect subscription fees had become enough of an advantage that ESPN could take over coverage of the single biggest non-NFL/Olympic sporting event of each year. The broadcast industry's response, the increase in emphasis on retransmission consent, only made broadcasters of all stripes dependent on cable and disincentivized to support their own nominal method of distribution. Outdated FCC regulations like the "E/I" requirement also help explain why there's been little "formatting" on commercial terrestrial television beyond subtle differences between cheap rerun farms. Broadcasting, meanwhile, is still a subset of the broader linear television universe, and in order to put out press releases defending their medium's right to exist (as opposed to, you know, actually giving it a reason to exist) they have to be able to say they're providing "vital information" to the people who don't get cable for whatever reason.

Would the Internet-driven revolt against linear television as a whole have happened if we had gotten a terrestrial television landscape worthy of pre-digital cable rather than one driven by four channels being programmed the same as fifty years ago, the occasional PBS thing, and a bunch of junk everywhere else? Maybe, maybe not, but I doubt it would have posed quite the existential threat to both broadcast and cable it actually does. As it stands, though, I don't know how much of a market there is for a lot of the "formats" you would want there to be. The future of linear television, if it has one, is going to be in sports, news, awards shows, the occasional parade or fireworks display, other popular live events like New Year's Eve, and other things people follow along with (read: don't want to be spoiled about) on social media; everything else people are going to want to call up off the Internet when they want to, not watch or DVR when someone tells them to. And frankly, the demand for spectrum/bandwidth for the Internet may force the "all things for all people" model back to being the norm, limiting the number of channels to the largest number of events warranting the linear treatment happening at one time. But I'd much rather have a future where all those things I mentioned at least have the option to be on linear television than one where everyone has to go on the Internet for everything.

Ultimately, we both want the same things: the right tool for the right job, and a broadcast industry that does what it does well and serves the viewer rather than frustrating them. You want to be able to watch your favorite scripted shows without getting screwed over with breaking news, sports overruns, and other things you don't care about. I want to avoid a future where net neutrality isn't a quaint memory because everyone wants to get their breaking news and sports fast more than they want to keep the Internet out of the control of those with big pockets. The Internet is great at delivering a lot of things to one person at a time, but linear television is better at delivering one thing to a lot of people at a time.
Maybe that's why, a few weeks ago, when ESPN's Cowboys-Redskins game was simulcast in Dallas on WFAA 8, the local station's rating was 75% higher than ESPN's. Than more than accounts for the homes that don't have cable.
In my case it would have been the novelty of seeing ESPN on a non-ESPN channel and what sort of programming the station put around the game, but I'm weird that way.

There's a reason 3 of the Big 4 networks keep buying up all the stations the government will allow: it's still a great business with plenty of room for growth and no sign of weakening overall.
Then why did at least two of those three threaten to become cable-only if Aereo got its way? It may have been an idle threat, but you know they would have done it if they thought they could get away with it. Consolidation isn't a sign of a healthy industry, but an unhealthy one. The Big Four may not be acquiring failing stations, but the Sinclairs of the world sure are.

Still, it's rare that one single cable channel gets more than a 10 share for a show. What is making cable workable is a single company can own multiple cable channels. That's a great way to make a pile of money. I'd say given that, the days of broadcast network ownership limits are pretty short.

Unless part of the purpose of broadcast ownership limits is to put them at an unfair disadvantage compared to unregulated cable networks. Even if that wasn't originally their purpose, I wouldn't put that past the FCC, certainly not when the heads of the FCC and cable company lobby used to have each other's job.
 
If the major networks that broadcast via local affiliates only get around a 30 share of viewing in prime time and often much less in fringe and daytime and late nights, how can you say they, collectively, outperform the group of cable channels that has the bulk of viewing?

I did not say that they did. I agreed that network programming gets a large share of viewing in prime time. Not the majority of viewing. Just a share that is large. A 30 share is large. My point was that the 30 share they get nowadays, though large, isn't as large as it used to be.

More important than mere numbers is the fact that the kind of programming that used to be network TV's strongest asset, being the primary source for episodic, first-run scripted comedies and dramas, is gradually being taken over by the networks distributed exclusively by non OTA media.

Right now we're seeing a paradigm shift. Such changes always have to start somewhere, and they start small at first and then grow. A decade ago, networks like AMC and the History Channel carried old movies and niche documentaries. Now, AMC has several original episodic scripted dramas, including several major hits. The History Channel's Vikings is outstanding. The police procedurals on TNT are often better than the NCIS franchise that CBS is milking to death.

People can argue and nitpick over their personal favorite shows, but I don't see how anyone can fail to grasp the fact that with every new television season, the cable networks are launching more and better shows while the OTA networks are launching fewer and fewer quality shows.
 
That's about as safe a prediction as anyone can make. I don't think anyone disagrees that as long as you throw in the disclaimer "in some form", any prediction about OTA television is reasonable. And, given the nature of corporate mergers and name changes, the chances of Netflix no longer existing under that name are about even. So, that prediction is simultaneously wisely accurate and totally meaningless.

Well, Avid, then the remark by the Netflix exec was equally meaningless which is why I wrote what I did. One thing is certain, the media landscape of 2030 will be different and it cannot be predicted with accuracy now what it will look like then. . I actually see Netflix liquidating. With digital distribution, content creators don't need a Netflix. They can self distribute or join with other content companies in controlling their distribution. The forays the company has made into content are far too minor to make them a real player. They will follow Blockbuster into the abyss.
 
There has always been money in distribution, sometimes even more in production. That applies to any type of business, any industry and any product. In the world of 2030, the media landscape will be extremely crowded with self-producers. The world of audio podcasts, for example, is getting that way. Producers will want to make deals with distributors - portals, if you will - who can get their content to the right people.

Netflix has shown its ability to be flexible. They were in the CD by mail business and were quick to embrace on-demand. (Broadcasters can learn from them.) If they stay flexible, however the world changes, they should do OK.
 
"Agreeing to disagree" is intellectual bullshit.

I'm sorry you chose to make it personal rather than to have a meaningful, intelligent conversation. I used the term "agreeing to disagree," to mean I'm not going to convince you, you're not going to convince me, but I respectfully read what you had to say and now choose to stop my end of the conversation rather than engaging you further.
 


If the major networks that broadcast via local affiliates only get around a 30 share of viewing in prime time and often much less in fringe and daytime and late nights, how can you say they, collectively, outperform the group of cable channels that has the bulk of viewing?

The numbers I see indicate the broadcast networks outperform dozens of cable channels combined. I'm not saying broadcast beats all other platforms put together. But--since you seem to have better access to the numbers than I do--is there any single platform that outperforms broadcast TV (i.e. cable channels versus broadcast channels or Over the Top vs. Broadcast? Is there any single source (Netflix, Hulu, ESPN, etc) that comes close to the ratings, individually, of an ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox?

Thanks, David, for always making conversations respectful and informative.
 
The numbers I see indicate the broadcast networks outperform dozens of cable channels combined. I'm not saying broadcast beats all other platforms put together. But--since you seem to have better access to the numbers than I do--is there any single platform that outperforms broadcast TV (i.e. cable channels versus broadcast channels or Over the Top vs. Broadcast? Is there any single source (Netflix, Hulu, ESPN, etc) that comes close to the ratings, individually, of an ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox?

Thanks, David, for always making conversations respectful and informative.

Hulu, Netflix and Amazon are not real time rated television. They are the heritage of the DVD and the VHS... on demand "purchases" of individual pieces of entertainment and are not rated and never have been.

TV ratings include reception of the traditional national networks and their affiliates as well as all cable channels that are not "on demand" whether delivered to the viewer by over the air signals, cable, satellite or stream (the metered markets have a shortfall with streams as tablets and smartphones are generally not metered). In recent years, the viewing of programs via DVR counts as long as it is within a short time frame.

So if we look at national ratings for CBS, the numbers are composed of OTA, cable and satellite viewing in real time or delayed of the local stations that make up the networks. So-called cable channels are composed of just cable and satellite viewing, as, let's say, AMC does not have OTA broadcast facilities.

Nationally, cable penetration is about 57% of households, ADS (Alternate Distribution Systems) like Satellite is at 33% and the remainder is OTA (Source: TVB: http://www.tvb.org/research/media_comparisons/4729/72512). But for ratings, it does not matter how you get a particular program of a particular network... what matters is whether you viewed it.
 


Nationally, cable penetration is about 57% of households, ADS (Alternate Distribution Systems) like Satellite is at 33% and the remainder is OTA (Source: TVB: http://www.tvb.org/research/media_comparisons/4729/72512). But for ratings, it does not matter how you get a particular program of a particular network... what matters is whether you viewed it.

Thanks for that. You mentioned broadcasters' share of the audience earlier. Do you happen to have stats for cable channels for the same night? (I can see local numbers for DFW and a few other markets for broadcast and a few cable channels. Beyond that, I can only refer to the numbers that are posted from sources such as Zap2It.) The real question for me is: are there a few cable channels that make up most of that 70 share, or is it mainly fragmented, 2 share here, 2 share there?
 
Thanks for that. You mentioned broadcasters' share of the audience earlier. Do you happen to have stats for cable channels for the same night? (I can see local numbers for DFW and a few other markets for broadcast and a few cable channels. Beyond that, I can only refer to the numbers that are posted from sources such as Zap2It.) The real question for me is: are there a few cable channels that make up most of that 70 share, or is it mainly fragmented, 2 share here, 2 share there?

You can get some topline ratings from http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/

They have both overnights as well as the adjusted numbers for DVR viewing.
 
The numbers I see indicate the broadcast networks outperform dozens of cable channels combined. I'm not saying broadcast beats all other platforms put together. But--since you seem to have better access to the numbers than I do--is there any single platform that outperforms broadcast TV (i.e. cable channels versus broadcast channels or Over the Top vs. Broadcast? Is there any single source (Netflix, Hulu, ESPN, etc) that comes close to the ratings, individually, of an ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox?

The thing is, the numbers mean different things depending on how you slice and dice them. The OTA networks have X% of the market, including viewers watching them over wires instead of the air. But that doesn't have much meaning unless you factor in how the remainder of the market is divided. How many who aren't watching currently produced episodic shows are watching new episodes of cable-produced shows, versus how many are watching old reruns of network shows, versus watching documentaries and other non-fiction programs, versus watching live or delayed sporting events, versus home shopping channels, versus listening to audio-only music channels?

What real difference does it make if the OTA networks are being beaten by a huge coalition of lots of little players or by one huge monster competitor? They're losing ground every year. If OTA television is bigger than any one single competitor, but all the competitors combine grind it into the dirt, it's still ground into the dirt.

The real question for me is: are there a few cable channels that make up most of that 70 share, or is it mainly fragmented, 2 share here, 2 share there?

The real question for me is: what the hell difference does it make? The side with 70 is kicking the ass of the side with 30.
 
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Point getting missed here:

For the vast majority of TV viewers, ALL channels are cable channels. Everything comes through a pipe or roof-top dish. Local or national content doesn't matter. Most everyplace gets a local/regional sports channel. Many markets have local/regional news channels. None of those go out OTA.

But whether local or national, all cable/fiber optic/satellite channels BROADCAST. They send what they send and when you tune in, you see what they send. Take it or leave it.

Netflix (and others) do on-demand. On-demand is the antithesis of broadcasting. On-demand is you ask for it, you get it. Have it your way.

Good chance that in 16 years nobody will be doing or watching broadcast television (however delivered). If NBC and CBS want to see their hundredth anniversaries, they will have moved completely to on-demand content by that time.
 
The numbers I see indicate the broadcast networks outperform dozens of cable channels combined. I'm not saying broadcast beats all other platforms put together. But--since you seem to have better access to the numbers than I do--is there any single platform that outperforms broadcast TV (i.e. cable channels versus broadcast channels or Over the Top vs. Broadcast? Is there any single source (Netflix, Hulu, ESPN, etc) that comes close to the ratings, individually, of an ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox?

Sorta. Partially depends on what you look at. If you look at one particular program, sometimes cable will have a major hit that happens to beat whatever NBC is running at that hour.

Major sports properties occasionally outrate network broadcasts on any given night -- e.g. a Reds game on FOX Sports Ohio might be the most watched program in Cincinnati on a night.

Monday Night Football is often the highest rated program on Monday nights. Before CBS came along, Thursday Night Football often challenged the networks in viewership, despite being on a relatively low carriage cable channel.

As far as average viewership, one of the broadcast networks always win.
For example, last week ESPN was the top rated cable channel with 3.3 million average viewers, beating CW, Univision and FOX. But 10.6 million average viewers were watching CBS.

General entertainment cable networks do not challenge the broadcast networks. Last week, (surprisingly enough) Hallmark Channel was the top general entertainment network with 2.0 million viewers, barely beating the CW.

All data from TVByTheNumbers.
 
For the vast majority of TV viewers, ALL channels are cable channels.

I think it is important to separate the origination from the transport in the definition of cable/sat vs OTA and perhaps it is the names which fail to adequately describe each.

OTA, whether carried into your home via antenna, cable or satellite, consists of the four major networks and a smattering of independent services (and for this purpose I would not describe any of those as a 'network'), sorry CW and PBS.

"Cable" defines those services (programmers) who are located only by subscription and are not one of the above.

It does not matter what transport mechanism is used to get the signal into the home but it certainly is important where the content originates.
 
OTA, whether carried into your home via antenna, cable or satellite, consists of the four major networks and a smattering of independent services (and for this purpose I would not describe any of those as a 'network'), sorry CW and PBS.

CW is definitely a network, with often competitive prime time offerings. Univision, which during many weeks this year, has beaten all the networks in 18-34 and has occasionally been #1 for a week in 18-49 (and is frequently ahead of Fox in all the sales demos). So there are really 6 networks that get significant viewing via the OTA model which thus qualifies them for "must carry" on cable. All are on satellite in some form.

To be complete, you have to include the other two OTA based networks, Telemundo and UniMás. Making 8 that do not fit the cable only model.

"Cable" defines those services (programmers) who are located only by subscription and are not one of the above.

Then you have to include all the OTA based networks and independents or you leave out a considerable amount of national viewing.
 
The thing is, the numbers mean different things depending on how you slice and dice them. The OTA networks have X% of the market, including viewers watching them over wires instead of the air. But that doesn't have much meaning unless you factor in how the remainder of the market is divided. How many who aren't watching currently produced episodic shows are watching new episodes of cable-produced shows, versus how many are watching old reruns of network shows, versus watching documentaries and other non-fiction programs, versus watching live or delayed sporting events, versus home shopping channels, versus listening to audio-only music channels?

That makes no sense at all.

Network TV, whether is it cable only or OTA that is rebroadcast on cable, is generally sold on a program basis, with each show being analyzed by an advertiser for a demo match as well as cost efficiency.

Even local spot sales for the OTA channels tends to be program based. ROS schedules are the lower cost option and tend to be pre-emptable and BTA.

What is meaningful is the ability of any network, OTA based or wired-only, to deliver a lot of programs that are viable options for advertisers. Otherwise, any network will have a few money makers and a bunch of break-even or worse offerings filled with PI ads.

Ratings track delivery of households and tell advertisers the characteristics of the viewers each show delivers. The only "slicing and dicing" (to use your term) is based on demographics including age, gender, income levels, etc.

If you want to know why a household views Rizolli & Isles and not NCIS or Walking Dead and not Criminal Minds, you have to do perceptual research. That will be proprietary, and of little or no interest to the advertiser as it involves programming strategy, not a quantification of viewer delivery.
 
That makes no sense at all.

Only if you have a narrow, short-term view limited to nothing but ratings and advertising sales. If you're actually interesting in the content of television programs, then it makes a great deal of sense.
 
Point getting missed here:

For the vast majority of TV viewers, ALL channels are cable channels. Everything comes through a pipe or roof-top dish. Local or national content doesn't matter. Most everyplace gets a local/regional sports channel. Many markets have local/regional news channels. None of those go out OTA.

But whether local or national, all cable/fiber optic/satellite channels BROADCAST. They send what they send and when you tune in, you see what they send. Take it or leave it.

Netflix (and others) do on-demand. On-demand is the antithesis of broadcasting. On-demand is you ask for it, you get it. Have it your way.

Good chance that in 16 years nobody will be doing or watching broadcast television (however delivered). If NBC and CBS want to see their hundredth anniversaries, they will have moved completely to on-demand content by that time.

You're missing a really big point. Broadcast versus on-demand take a back seat to whether or not the content is compelling enough that the viewer wants to see it. There are TV shows that I'll adjust my personal schedule to watch when they first air. There are other TV shows that I'll delay watching until it's more convenient, and if I miss it, no big deal. And there are many on-demand shows I'll watch only if I'm bored and there's nothing else good to watch.

The three most important things in attracting an audience are now, and always have been, and always will be content, content, and content.
 
The three most important things in attracting an audience are now, and always have been, and always will be content, content, and content.

How fascinating. I never would have guessed that one...
 
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