According to Sniffin - Country on 94.7 is slim to none. He would probably say no more than 5 % chance - MY GUESS. He insists Country is IMPOSSIBLE to sell properly in New York City and its not just ratings issues. I agree with him that at one time this WAS true. It Was true back in 1996, 2000, 2002, 2005.
But it MIGHT not be true anymore. Its been 17 years almost since we had a major player on FM doing Country. Then for another 5 and a half years we had a suburban group of stations simulcasting a Country format. That ended for multiple reasons. Historically Country did not sell well in Manhattan. WJRZ in the 60's had mediocre ratings at best on 970 and in 1971 they went Top 40 and then religious in 74. Then in 1973 1050 WHN dropped their easy listening leaning MOR format for country. That struggled for a year or so until they modified it into a Country/AC hybrid format - half country friendly pop and half country with crossover material more than half the time. That did pretty well. Then in 1980, WRVR 106.7 drops Jazz for Country becoming WKHK. They pull the lower end of mediocre ratings and WHN also goes down as well. WKHK drops out early in 1984 to become Lite FM 106.7 WLTW. WHN by then is running Sports in the evening but still leaning pop when playing country. Their ratings are decent but they also are not selling the format well. When Emmis bought WHN's parent company they held on to country during the day but put more sports on at night in 1986. Then they announced in April 87 that WHN would become WFAN and all Sports July 1. The same day ratings troubled AC station WYNY 97.1 went country - with less pop than WHN played. Ratings were okay. Due to the fact Emmis bought NBC's radio frequencies, Westwood One bought 103.5 and moved the WYNY Country Unit there in 1988.
On 103.5, the station lacked marketing and promotions. Plus there were rumors that Westwood One wanted to eventually dump Country. From 1989 to 1991, WYNY did okay in ratings but still sold as well as stations with half their ratings. Promotions and marketing lacked as well. Then in 1991, WYNY sold to another company who stated they were committed to keeping WYNY Country but instead they continued to cut costs. They were preparing the station to be spun off eventually. Then in the Fall of 1994, Broadcast Partners put WYNY on the block and found a taker in early 1995, Evergreen. Evergreen would not comit to country either way but rumors of the format's demise were rampant. WYNY even allowed Dan Daniel to do a shift on CBS FM for radio Greats Weekend in 1995, knowing that WYNY would not be around much longer. In January of 1996, Evergreen announced that when the sale of WYNY becomes final, Country would be gone. 6 AM February 5, Country WYNY was no more. Then from December of 96 to May of 2002 we had the Y 107 Triplecast eventually becoming a Quadcast. That did some ratings in suburbs but not even mediocre in New York City.
Now today I think there is a 25 % to 33 % chance that 94.7 will be country. WHY??? Well most of the sales people and managers that were around in 1996 and even 2002, are no longer working in the NYC market or even radio at all. Also almost half the advertisers around in 1996 are no longer in business - either closing down or being sold or merged with other companies. Also Cumulus was not in New York City back then. So their broadcasting phillosophy is likely different from CBS or Clear Channel. Cumulus also owns a country music station in most of their markets.
Another thing is that 94.7 will not have to just rely on New York City sales. Their signal in Manhattan is as good as the rest but leans slightly to the west, this gives them an edge in North Jersey. There are tons of Northern NJ businesses that would buy sales time on 94.7. Also most of the country listeners are from northern NJ and few are from Manhattan. Another reason I think Country is possible is because you have WDHA 105.5 doing rock and for them to do rock they would have a serious competitor with WDHA.
I also think Rock is about a 33 % chance. Though WDHA has a strong following, 94.7 could try going after WDHA. Another thing is maybe they could buy WDHA's intellectual unit and move it to 94.7. Then Greater Media could do Country on 105.5 while WDHA moves to the stronger 94.7.
Talk I believe also has a 33 % chance of going to 94.7. Slim to no chance of oldies. With Citadel??? Maybe but Cumulus has a history of dumping oldies. Most of they time the changes are sudden and abrupt. But up in Hudson Valley they began evolving 97.7 WCZX/97.3 WZAD from Oldies 1955-1974 to Oldies 1955-89 to Oldies 1964 to 1989 to pop leaning classic Hits 1964 to 1994 to Gold Based AC leaning 70's and 80's but spanning from 1964 to then current product to a Straight but deep AC format by the fall of 2004. They did acquire a Class A FM station on 94.3 they put oldies 1955 to 1972 on in january of 2003 but that lasted till that September when they made 94.3 Country Music. They eventually added 97.3 to the simulcast of 94.3 making only 97.7 the AC station. They compete with Country there regardless of the fact 107.3 WRWD is doing far better with Country. So in the Hudson Valley we have 2 country stations.