News/Talk ratings skyrocket; Sports, CHR, Hot AC and AC tumble

[wastedtalent23]

Probably Sept, Oct, Nov, Jan, Feb average. Many ratings-based buyers use a 3 to 6 month average, and they skip December and Holiday. Now, they will skip the months from March onward until we have anew normal established.

Nielsen sent a clients-only memo on Monday suggesting that March and April not be used as a basis for advertising buys as the numbers are not typical and will not represent normal listening levels.

How can that be even close to accurate if Music stations have lost between 30% and up to about 60% of their AQH persons listening? If I was an advertiser that wanted to buy TODAY, let's say hypothetically, a station targeting Adults 25-54, I would buy spots on the News/Talk with the highest "share". The April numbers reflect who's listening to what, NOW. Not Sept, Oct, Nov of last year.

The 12-week rolling average of Feb, Mar and Apr, would be most accurate if they wanted to use a 3 month average.

Agreed, the Music lovers are not listening as much, some not at all, due to differences in daily routine as well as other factors. So if I wanted to reach the greatest amount of listeners TODAY with the audience that is left, "share" would still be important no matter how large or small the "pie" is.

Please correct me if I am wrong about this.

 

[TheBigA]

If I was an advertiser that wanted to buy TODAY....

I think the real issue is that advertisers aren't buying anything now. It doesn't matter if the ratings are good or not. They have no reason to advertise if their stores are closed and customers aren't going out.

 

[semoochie]

How can that be even close to accurate if Music stations have lost between 30% and up to about 60% of their AQH persons listening? If I was an advertiser that wanted to buy TODAY, let's say hypothetically, a station targeting Adults 25-54, I would buy spots on the News/Talk with the highest "share". The April numbers reflect who's listening to what, NOW. Not Sept, Oct, Nov of last year.

The 12-week rolling average of Feb, Mar and Apr, would be most accurate if they wanted to use a 3 month average.

Agreed, the Music lovers are not listening as much, some not at all, due to differences in daily routine as well as other factors. So if I wanted to reach the greatest amount of listeners TODAY with the audience that is left, "share" would still be important no matter how large or small the "pie" is.

Please correct me if I am wrong about this.

News-Talk listening tends to come more from time spent listening from fewer people than sampling by many.

 

[Will_H_69_9]

I wonder if WBAP, KLIF or KRLD and maybe KSKY has overtaken The Fan, The Ticket, ESPN 103.3, 1061 Kiss FM, Hot 93.3, Now 102.9, and Star 1021 as well as 99.5 the Wolf and KSCS New Country 96.3 in the DFW ratings during the last two months of pandemic shutdown/lockdowns.

 

[TheBigA]

I wonder if WBAP, KLIF or KRLD and maybe KSKY has overtaken The Fan, The Ticket, ESPN 103.3, 1061 Kiss FM, Hot 93.3, Now 102.9, and Star 1021 as well as 99.5 the Wolf and KSCS New Country 96.3 in the DFW ratings during the last two months of pandemic shutdown/lockdowns.

No...it's interesting that Dallas is one of the few markets where news/talk stations have NOT skyrocketed. In fact the music stations are among the Top 5 stations.

https://ratings.****************/cgi-bin/rol.exe/arb024

 

[davideduardo]

How can that be even close to accurate if Music stations have lost between 30% and up to about 60% of their AQH persons listening? If I was an advertiser that wanted to buy TODAY, let's say hypothetically, a station targeting Adults 25-54, I would buy spots on the News/Talk with the highest "share". The April numbers reflect who's listening to what, NOW. Not Sept, Oct, Nov of last year.

The news and talk stations are off, too. Just not as much as most music outlets. Various PPM markets, in 25-54, are off from 31% to 48% in my evaluations. Very traditional and established news operations lost the least, such as the public station in San Francisco. Second tier ones suffered just like music stations from the loss of in-car and at-work listening due to less commuting and office / workplace listening presence.

The 12-week rolling average of Feb, Mar and Apr, would be most accurate if they wanted to use a 3 month average.

Nielsen sent out a client memo last Monday saying (in my words) the recent data should be considered to only be a reflection of a very different environment. The implication was that future buys should not be based on current results.

Agreed, the Music lovers are not listening as much, some not at all, due to differences in daily routine as well as other factors. So if I wanted to reach the greatest amount of listeners TODAY with the audience that is left, "share" would still be important no matter how large or small the "pie" is.

But in a market where a leading station had a 5 share, it would need a 9 to 10 share now to be the same. No station did that. So it comes down to how long this problem will exist and how much stations will charge for time.

 

[wastedtalent23]

But in a market where a leading station had a 5 share, it would need a 9 to 10 share now to be the same. No station did that. So it comes down to how long this problem will exist and how much stations will charge for time.

Valid points, with that being said, does that mean that most of these Sports Talk stations that are seeing their shares sharply lower, have actually fallen off a cliff? Could it be when we see May 2020 numbers, they could be literally "bottom feeders"? Things could be actually worse than they appear?

If so, the same could be said about the contemporary music formats (CHR, Hot AC, AC) that are sliding.

We are seeing what appear to be some drastic changes as of late. Although I find the latest numbers interesting(some find it irrelevant), I don't like what I'm seeing because my passion for radio comes from working in Music formats. Sports radio will make a comeback when sports itself does. I just hope the music lovers come back, too.

I have notice some spikes in SHARES in Urban AC, Classic Hits, Classic Rock and Spanish Music formats. So in general it looks like Adults 18-49, mostly female is where the void is forming. Purely speculation.

 

[TheBigA]

If so, the same could be said about the contemporary music formats (CHR, Hot AC, AC) that are sliding.

There isn't much happening in the new music world. Artists and labels are reluctant to release new music since there are limited ways to promote it. Unless they want to do home concerts or that kind of thing, they seem to be staying at home and getting ready for the 4th quarter.

 

[CTListener]

There isn't much happening in the new music world. Artists and labels are reluctant to release new music since there are limited ways to promote it. Unless they want to do home concerts or that kind of thing, they seem to be staying at home and getting ready for the 4th quarter.

More likely first or second quarter 2021, given current conventional wisdom about the second wave and the arrival time of a vaccine. Nobody tours until venues reopen.

 

[TheBigA]

More likely first or second quarter 2021, given current conventional wisdom about the second wave and the arrival time of a vaccine. Nobody tours until venues reopen.

They need the revenue during the 2020 year somehow, even if it's December. The touring folks are creating concerts in stadium parking lots or drive in theaters where fans stay in their cars. They will find a way to create revenue while still providing safety for fans. Never underestimate American ingenuity when it comes to making money.

 

[davideduardo]

Valid points, with that being said, does that mean that most of these Sports Talk stations that are seeing their shares sharply lower, have actually fallen off a cliff? Could it be when we see May 2020 numbers, they could be literally "bottom feeders"? Things could be actually worse than they appear?

Yes.

The established news or talk stations like WINS, KQED, WSB fell less than the market average, and most "first tier" stations that did well prior to the Coronavirus are off less than other stations.

But using share when the denominator in the formula, Persons Using Radio, has changed, gives a very mistaken evaluation. Nielsen has told us this in client communications.

If so, the same could be said about the contemporary music formats (CHR, Hot AC, AC) that are sliding.

Most music stations are off 40% to 60% in AQH persons. There may be exceptions, but i have not seen any among stations that are in the top tier where the ordinary numbers do not vary by more than 8% to 10% book to book.

I have notice some spikes in SHARES in Urban AC, Classic Hits, Classic Rock and Spanish Music formats. So in general it looks like Adults 18-49, mostly female is where the void is forming. Purely speculation.

Looking at the major Spanish language players, it seems that the ones that speak to the least bilingual groups lost the least. But they all lost.

 

[Don CT]

There isn't much happening in the new music world. Artists and labels are reluctant to release new music since there are limited ways to promote it. Unless they want to do home concerts or that kind of thing, they seem to be staying at home and getting ready for the 4th quarter.

On average how many new albums get released every year. Most artists release every 2 years and then they will drag out new singles every few months. What marquee names were planning releases this summer?

 

[TheBigA]

What marquee names were planning releases this summer?

Here are a couple of articles about albums originally set for spring release that were delayed:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/album-delays-caused-by-covid-19-973870/

https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/9342723/album-releases-postponed-coronavirus-list

There are quite a few. Luke Bryan, Dixie Chicks, Lady Gaga, Alicia Keyes. They usually schedule huge media blitzes around their releases, with TV appearances, concert tours, and other appearances. All of that is on hold, so radio formats that depend on new music are also on hold.

 

[Don CT]

Here are a couple of articles about albums originally set for spring release that were delayed:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/album-delays-caused-by-covid-19-973870/

https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/9342723/album-releases-postponed-coronavirus-list

There are quite a few. Luke Bryan, Dixie Chicks, Lady Gaga, Alicia Keyes

I thought Spotify was reporting record numbers, so why not release new music, people are obviously going to listen to it. Nobody buys CD's anymore, it's not like that was going to hurt sales.

 

[TheBigA]

I thought Spotify was reporting record numbers, so why not release new music, people are obviously going to listen to it. Nobody buys CD's anymore, it's not like that was going to hurt sales.

Its one thing to release new music, but it's another to do the media blitz that surrounds it. Radio is part of that media blitz.

 

[Don CT]

Its one thing to release new music, but it's another to do the media blitz that surrounds it. Radio is part of that media blitz.

If radio numbers keep sinking and never return to normal what then?

 

[TheBigA]

If radio numbers keep sinking and never return to normal what then?

It's more than just radio. Artists and labels need touring and personal appearances to drive the new music. It's all inter-related.

The artists make more money from touring than music sales. They release the music to drive fans to their shows.

The artists are saying the virus will change their meet & greets and relations with their fans. They're doing a lot of online things to mitigate the changes, but ultimately they need to find a way to resume the personal fan experience.

 

[Don CT]

It's more than just radio. Artists and labels need touring and personal appearances to drive the new music. It's all inter-related.

The artists make more money from touring than music sales. They release the music to drive fans to their shows.

Artists will tour for 2 years to support a new album, you might be waiting that long for them to come to your city.

 

[TheBigA]

Artists will tour for 2 years to support a new album, you might be waiting that long for them to come to your city.

Kenny Chesney had a huge stadium tour planned for this summer. A few days ago he announced the whole thing was moved to 2021. They had already booked the stadiums for those days. That's money lost there, parking money lost, concession money lost, and more. Plus they aren't refunding ticket money, but applying it to next year. All of this is connected to radio and other media.

 

[Don CT]

Kenny Chesney had a huge stadium tour planned for this summer. A few days ago he announced the whole thing was moved to 2021. They had already booked the stadiums for those days. That's money lost there, parking money lost, concession money lost, and more. Plus they aren't refunding ticket money, but applying it to next year. All of this is connected to radio and other media.

I wonder how many breach of contracts there are when these shows get cancelled. Do promoters have to eat the loss?