Potential shuffle as a result of 100.3/my theories

[Radiogeek500]

Much discussion here has centered on 100.3 rumored to go N/T and subsequently a KFI move to FM. With that in mind, I have a couple of theories on what could happen, and 93.9 will likely itself have some type of a void to fill as a result.

1. Bonneville goes N/T with 100.3. CC responds by moving KFI to 92.3. 98-7 stays intact however. Emmis picks up the KHHT format(but mabye tweaks it to also try and grab some KRBV listeners, mabye a hybrid between the current Hot and V?

2. Bonneville goes N/T. CC either moves KFI to 92.3 or 98.7, if 92.3, then KHHT goes to 98-7. Emmis flips KMVN to Active/Alternative rock, seeing it's probably the only realistic thing they could do in a PPM world.

That's my theories. I say #2 is more likely, I'm not sure even with a need to protect KFI and such that CC would wanna give Emmis that big of a hole to fill at 93.9 with KHHT, CC really still needs a station that is directed at the Black/Latino folks, I know they have had a vision of going after KROQ, but a need to protect KFI and their wall of women would be more importaint, Emmis could probably do the flanker KROQ thing and make something of it, I'm not sure that PPM is going be the big rock ratings getter that people make it out to be, but like I said, when you have something as badly performing as KMVN, I guess even the old KZLA numbers look better.

What do you think about my two theories? I especially want researcher, Eduardo, and Calguy's thoughts.

 

[davideduardo]

The Bonneville thing is too much of a rumor to base reactions on... yes, they may buy LA as part of the ROIA payment for the DC station, but taking it talk is a stage two rumor. Interesting, but there is a lot to examine, like talent, cost, etc.

92.3 looks fishy to me as far as having a future.

KFI may preempt any n/t move, but the frequency pretty much has to be 104.3. 98.7 is a realitively challenged property, and 92.3 will benefit if KRBV goes away... KIIS already has the Hispanic women, so this frequency could benefit by gooing for some of the urban audience.

You are forgetting 93.5 which is now in play after moving to Baldwin Hills.

 

[nmoore6676]

Since KFI, as an AM property, consistently rates in the top tier of overall ratings, what would they gain by transitioning to FM? KFI also rates relatively well in San Diego, despite their signal problems in recent times so they would loose all of that audience, though it would be good for co-owned KOGO. They also rate well in the Inland Empire and Orange County. If they were to go FM what could they do with 640? I don't think the FCC would tolerate a continuous AM-FM simulcast and a 50KW class A station is, even today, a still a very valuable property.

They could move the sports station but I don't know if their contract with the Lakers which have long had their games on 570 for whatever reason would go along. I suppose they could go for the Dodgers once the KABC deal expires but that would also be in the future. We all know that music formats for AM have not done well here and what else is there?

Since we are shooting arrows into the air, having no idea where they will land, how about Liberman acquiring 100.3 for the Que Buena format? On a single signal it might do even better, like #2 or #3, maybe even #1.

 

[pbf1]

Since KFI, as an AM property, consistently rates in the top tier of overall ratings, what would they gain by transitioning to FM?

Uh...keeping it, rather than losing it to a new N/T competitor?

 

[nmoore6676]

Since KFI, as an AM property, consistently rates in the top tier of overall ratings, what would they gain by transitioning to FM?

Uh...keeping it, rather than losing it to a new N/T competitor?

They already have the audience, on AM. They also rate well in outside LA markets most of which they would lose going to FM. Add to that the value of the property, a class A AM on 640KHZ and there is no compelling reason to do the switch. Otherwise they could eliminate the headaches of trying to get back to full signal strength and downgrade to a class B operating off the 200' tower in Mira Loma or keep using the Montecito Heights facility. As to any competition most of the best of talk radio is already on the air somewhere on the dial here so where will the rating busters come from?

 

[pbf1]

They already have the audience, on AM.

Duh...for now. All bets are off if a good FM competitor came along. Putting KFI on FM (which doesn't necessarily mean MOVING it) could preempt such a victory.

 

[nmoore6676]

They already have the audience, on AM.

Duh...for now. All bets are off if a good FM competitor came along. Putting KFI on FM (which doesn't necessarily mean MOVING it) could preempt such a victory.

Their audience is already conditioned to tuning to AM so the move to FM wouldn't produce any immediate results. A simulcast might help but as I said I doubt that 24-7 simulcasting a high power AM and FM in a market this size would go long unchallenged. As to competition as I said most of the cream of the crop can be heard locally or at least partially locally here already. An FM competitor would have to somehow get some heavy hitters, like Handel and /or John and Ken to jump ship. I doubt that Rush would make a difference one way or another nor Dr. Laura and they are not local. KFI would not have the advantage it has now, I believe, if not for Handel and J & K. Also if there are other contenders out there in the hinterlands they are untested in this market and the way radio execs look at that monthly financial statement they wouldn't be given the time to win over the listeners.

 

[davideduardo]

Their audience is already conditioned to tuning to AM so the move to FM wouldn't produce any immediate results.

Not the 25-54. In every market where an AM has simulcast, it has seen considerable increase, immediately, in this demo, the only one that matters. And when they move, like WIBC, they grow instantly... WIBC was not top 10 in 25-54 last year, and now they are top 5 after one survey month! And the whole station grew by 33% in total share.

Were Bonneville to do this, they have the patience to make the change and take the time to see it win.

 

[nmoore6676]

Their audience is already conditioned to tuning to AM so the move to FM wouldn't produce any immediate results.

Not the 25-54. In every market where an AM has simulcast, it has seen considerable increase, immediately, in this demo, the only one that matters. And when they move, like WIBC, they grow instantly... WIBC was not top 10 in 25-54 last year, and now they are top 5 after one survey month! And the whole station grew by 33% in total share.

Were Bonneville to do this, they have the patience to make the change and take the time to see it win.

David, since as a non subscriber to Arbitron I do not receive all of the breakdown information so I can't really dispute with 100% certainty what you maintain. Looking at what I do have to go on WIBC-FM, and KFI occupy the overall #3 position in their respective markets. Another case in an area where I have also lived in addition to Indianapolis and here is Dayton, Ohio. In that market the leading NT station WHIO, AM and FM are also in #3. To be fair the FM is actually licensed to nearby Piqua, Ohio and they have a CP to move it south and closer to Cincinnati. Now I know your are going to bring up demographics and market size differences, however you brought in WIBC but I again say what would they gain if by making the switch to FM they devalue the KFI 640AM property. It is still along with KIIS as the far away best performers for CC in LA. If they throw away the value of KFI then add in the fact that their other FMs and especially the other two AMs aren't exactly rating winners. They would come away, if it works, still with two winners and gain another loser, not what I would do if I were calling the shots.

And you are one of the people saying that AM is dead so anything else would be doomed there. Maybe AM-Radio should be changed to OF-Radio, for Old Folks, like me.

 

[davideduardo]

David, since as a non subscriber to Arbitron I do not receive all of the breakdown information so I can't really dispute with 100% certainty what you maintain. Looking at what I do have to go on WIBC-FM, and KFI occupy the overall #3 position in their respective markets.

In the January extraps, WIBC, now FM only, moved up by a third in 12+ and in 25-54 from outside the top 10 to inside the top 5.

All that matters for agency sales is under 55.

KFI is 6th 25-54, but a majority of its listeners are over 55... as time goes by, it will get less and less 25-54, or be vulnerable to an FM traditional talker who can take away much of its younger demos.

but I again say what would they gain if by making the switch to FM they devalue the KFI 640AM property.

As a public company, you have a point. But when Clear is private, they can say to themselves, let's protetect the news talk franchise and move it to FM before someone else does. They know what an FM talker can do to an entrenched AM... they did it themselves to KDKA where they left the old line AM with mostly 65+ listeners.

[/quote]the other two AMs aren't exactly rating winners. [/quote]

But sports makes tons of money... the other they can sell.

 

[nmoore6676]

Any competition would have to come up with content, KFI gets listeners because of Handel along with John and Ken so beating them on AM or FM would be hard for any competition. I for one doubt that the lower end of your cherished demo (like those in their twenties) have sufficient interest in the topics of traditional talk radio to drive much listener shifting. Perhaps recent political developments can challenge the younger people to listen, and I hope it would.

I haven't lived in Indianapolis in years so I have not heard WIBC either, however they don't look that much different than KFI with Rush in mid day so what do you attribute the rise in the 25-54 demo? It has to be the local shows and I doubt that what flies in Indianapolis would shake up the market here. Also remember that WIBC on AM was 50KW directional days but only 10 and directional at night, so moving it to FM wasn't losing a lot of coverage.

The question that I still pose is what becomes of AM640 once they vacate it. Sports, then what about 570? If the move were to be made it would likely be after a challenger on FM came in and they were hemorrhaging badly or starting to do so and so long as they have their current local talent, excluding Bryan Suits, they won't likely do so. If someone locally were to move NT from AM to FM it would make more sense for KABC to do it, they could use the ratings boost you all are predicting. Plus KABC is a 5KW class B, directional at night, AM station so the value of the station is not as great as KFI as a 50KW Class A. Even as a private company it works better at value if sold versus revenue produced to leave it as is (for KFI).

 

[davideduardo]

I for one doubt that the lower end of your cherished demo (like those in their twenties) have sufficient interest in the topics of traditional talk radio to drive much listener shifting.

It's not my cherished demo... 18-54 is where 99% of agency buys lie. As long as you get part of it, you have something to sell. In the case of news / talk, it's going to be 35-54.

I haven't lived in Indianapolis in years so I have not heard WIBC either, however they don't look that much different than KFI with Rush in mid day so what do you attribute the rise in the 25-54 demo?

It's FM. Under 55's and particularly under-45's have no use for AM. They grew up on FM, and find AM's sound to be unbearable and the image is that of an Oldsmobile.

It has to be the local shows and I doubt that what flies in Indianapolis would shake up the market here. Also remember that WIBC on AM was 50KW directional days but only 10 and directional at night, so moving it to FM wasn't losing a lot of coverage.

WIBC covered the metro; the FM covers 35-54. Bonneville, were they to do talk, is perfectly capable of coming up with shows that compete with Handel and the theatrical John and Ken and the weak Suits and the computer talk all weekend long. They can find alternatives, combining syndication and local, that will be entertaining, plus being on FM gives them a one-up on KFI.

WIBC is but one example... n/t of the traditional sort has moved or is moving to FM in dozens of markets.

The question that I still pose is what becomes of AM640 once they vacate it. Sports, then what about 570?

They sell the leftovers and pay down some debt. There are plenty of ethnic groups in LA looking for more service, particularly Asian groups. Sell 1150 and 570 and just keep 640, for example. Clear can not change the fact that the AM dial will soon be about two thirds 55+, and the one big format, n/t, will have found an FM home... better it be their station than a competitor.

If the move were to be made it would likely be after a challenger on FM came in and they were hemorrhaging badly or starting to do so and so long as they have their current local talent, excluding Bryan Suits, they won't likely do so. If someone locally were to move NT from AM to FM it would make more sense for KABC to do it, they could use the ratings boost you all are predicting. Plus KABC is a 5KW class B, directional at night, AM station so the value of the station is not as great as KFI as a 50KW Class A. Even as a private company it works better at value if sold versus revenue produced to leave it as is (for KFI).

You are neglecting to look at the fact that it is the demos, not the signals, that are at work here. AM can not get good 25-54 for n/t compared to FM. Leaving it as it is is dooming it to destruction in a matter of years.

 

[nmoore6676]

I grew up with AM but I was one of the first in my area to have an FM tuner as well, a Heathkit that I built with my own trusty soldering iron. Maybe it was those lead fumes that made me what I am today. ;D

In those early days of FM (1958 to 1970) and where I was there wasn't much choice or many FMs on the air. Top 40 for the most part which we younger people listened too was still on AM and most FM was either simulcast from the AM or so called beautiful music, usually automated. I will admit that music is better sounding on FM and especially after stereo became the norm.

However I have to still believe that the extra fidelity afforded by FM would be wasted on talk. Maybe ethnic programmers would be interested in the underutilized AM signal here so like you say Clear channel could sell the other two and pay down some debt. However if anyone is to gain in the immediate time by switching to FM talk I still say better for KABC. Their results for the good, or the bad, could be an indicator for CC to make any future determinations, without taking the initial risk. Sports seems to still work on AM, so sports on 640 could be the thing without 570 and 1150 in the same stable.

 

[davideduardo]

However I have to still believe that the extra fidelity afforded by FM would be wasted on talk.

It's not the fidelity, it is the clarity. People under 45 or 50 who did not grow up on AM... many of whom never use AM... find it to be funny sounding with no presence. FM's fidelity makes speach sound natural, while AM is muffled and telephone-like.

 

[nmoore6676]

However I have to still believe that the extra fidelity afforded by FM would be wasted on talk.

It's not the fidelity, it is the clarity. People under 45 or 50 who did not grow up on AM... many of whom never use AM... find it to be funny sounding with no presence. FM's fidelity makes speach sound natural, while AM is muffled and telephone-like.

You may be correct but most of the speech I hear on FM doesn't sound natural, but that may because the processing is usually optimized for music. Obviously that would be different if the format was predominately talk. Music does have a noticeable difference most notable the narrow response and lack of stereo presence. The biggest thing to me is the lack of noise because the pervasiveness of electronic gadgets make AM reception a challenge. Since I have been exposed to FM for 51+ years (AM for 60+) I don't think my ears have been especially attuned to favor one modulation method over the other. Of course most people today wouldn't like TV if it was still monochrome. By the way the early TV audio was atrocious if you want to hear muffled.

Maybe the FCC should just adopt a drop dead date for AM digital like they did for TV and let the analog format die, then it won't be a problem for music or talk or whatever. Else just phase it out entirely because as you indicate when the people of our age are gone nobody will care.

By the way I spent a part of my earlier years trying to squeeze reasonable sounding response out of POTS pairs, most of which had the old fashioned load coils in place, because my employer was to budget minded to rent broadcast equalized circuits for remotes. Today I hear sportscasts and other remotes on FM stations that sound worse than what I was able to do over AM, so where is your FM clarity advantage there?

 

[davideduardo]

You may be correct but most of the speech I hear on FM doesn't sound natural, but that may because the processing is usually optimized for music.

One of our LA stations has talk from 4 AM to 11 AM and also from 3 PM to 7 PM, and the advantages of FM are many, starting with dimensioning for an ensemble show and including the contrast between phoners and in-studio voices.

Today I hear sportscasts and other remotes on FM stations that sound worse than what I was able to do over AM, so where is your FM clarity advantage there?

In big metros like LA, all the point to point frequencies are long taken. So we are reduced to using cell phones in many cases unless there is time to order lines. Then again, the phone company no longer seems to give priority to radio and views every line, broadcast or not, as the same thing.

 

[radioresearcher]

KFI moving to FM would surely slow any growth Bonneville would have. CC could easily move KFI to one of their FM's and take KLAC and move it over to 640 - where it would have the Lakers - and expand that reach. They could then move KTLK to 570 and sell off 1150.

Now which FM they'd move it to is anyone's guess. If KRBV goes away, most of that audience will likely be split between KHHT and KJLH - with some going to KDAY.

KHHT has shifted slightly more Urban - while KMVN is clearly much more Hispanic and tempo driven. If CC were to blow up 92.3 for Talk, they'd be giving 93.9 a pretty big hole.

 

[tomservo]

However I have to still believe that the extra fidelity afforded by FM would be wasted on talk.

It's not the fidelity, it is the clarity. People under 45 or 50 who did not grow up on AM... many of whom never use AM... find it to be funny sounding with no presence. FM's fidelity makes speach sound natural, while AM is muffled and telephone-like.

In fairness it's not the AM scheme or transmitters that hamper the fidelity, but many modern radios. Ironically, the cheaper the radio the wider the bandwidth; I've heard some really good AM (talk AND music) on some really cheap radios.

It is my opinion that compelling content will work regardless of the band it's on. The signal that KFI puts over the metro is 'big enough' to overcome a lot of the noise issues that would otherwise drive away more fickle listeners. Get the word out to the targeted demos that the station is there and most of them will follow.

As an aside, I'm listening to a third-gen copy (VCR, then cassette, now minidisc) of some AM talk radio stuff recorded back in 1995 off a basic tabletop radio from the 80's, and well it sounds as good as the same show's podcasts do now, if not a little cleaner. :

It has also been my experience that FM talk tends to sound very harsh and grating after listening for any length of time. The Supertalk Mississippi and 99 WTN in Nashville stations come to mind, along with WNSP in Alabama. The CBS Free FM stations in NY and DC, along with Little Rock's FM talk station come to mind as ones that do sound really good, though. KLSX sounded good the many years ago that I heard that station, as well.

 

[davideduardo]

It is my opinion that compelling content will work regardless of the band it's on. The signal that KFI puts over the metro is 'big enough' to overcome a lot of the noise issues that would otherwise drive away more fickle listeners. Get the word out to the targeted demos that the station is there and most of them will follow.

In every case where an AM news talker has moved to FM (a la WIBC) or begun an FM simulcast (a la KSL) the 35-54 numbers have literally exploded. The problem is, therefore, the AM band. It's the perception it is not hip, the fact it sounds bad (radio or band's fault is immaterial), and that AM is noisy in many cases where FM is not.

It has also been my experience that FM talk tends to sound very harsh and grating after listening for any length of time. The Supertalk Mississippi and 99 WTN in Nashville stations come to mind, along with WNSP in Alabama. The CBS Free FM stations in NY and DC, along with Little Rock's FM talk station come to mind as ones that do sound really good, though. KLSX sounded good the many years ago that I heard that station, as well.

That is a station specific issue. I believe the Nashville station is coverage challenged, and they may be pushing the audio to "help." There are no Free FMs in NY or DC, and Free, prior to its demise, was not traditional news talk... it was more "boy's lavatory talk."

 

[LA_Guy]

Asian

Whoever buys 100.3 should take it ASIAN. Beat Arthur Liu at his own game! LA has a big enough Asian population to support an Asian FM station and the Asians are pretty upscale income wise too!

It makes PERFECT sense, which is why it won't be done!