ALL OTA will all go away in the future but HD Radio still has an opportunity now
Sales and promotion won't do anything unless management instruct them to. And sellers can not sell "stations" with nearly no audience. With a couple of rare and only occasional exceptions, the only HD stations with real audience are those that have an FM translator.
Nobody is buying stand-alone radios today. There is no HD on smartphones unless the audio is also streamed.
More than half of all households have smart speakers. Nearly 0% have in-home HD devices. There are still as many cars being made without HD as with it. No portable devices of significance have HD due to the power draw of the HD chip and its battery drain.
I recently purchased an HD tuner for my home. The issue with HD Radio is the same with OTA television. People gravitated to CD's, Cable and Satellite services and Internet streaming services, and today's younger generation has less tolerance than previous generations as to what they will listen to. They want "personal choices." I can't imagine getting into a vehical with a 20 or 30 year old and seeing them adjust an FM radio for a station. It's just not going to happen. For that age group, it's all about streaming, or prerecorded content on their phone. They have no concept of any OTA services. FM, VHF, UHF mean nothing to them.
But for slightly older generations however, the cable and streaming costs are gouging them while they are trying to wrestle with other family expenses. In this 30 and 40 age group there are more and more cord cutters looking at OTA options, instead of Cable. And, many are finding that OTA services for television are good enough and they don't need cable. This would be a good time to market FREE HD Radio as an OTA option for their paid music streaming services as well.
Now, if we move up to the 50s and 60 year old age group, we find that the streaming services are dropping the 60's and 70's content music we enjoyed back in OUR day BUT they are reappearing on HD Radio in many communities. Our huge, high end music systems with floor mounted speakers sit idle because the analog FM dial has shifted mainly to Hip Hop or music of this new generation. Where did our music go? It went to HD Radio in my area.
I purchased a car with HD Radio 2 years ago. I wasn't too impressed with the HD choices at that time, but TODAY there are more choices than ever. In fact, in my area I now get (6) 70's style music stations (1 is IHeart of them) on HD channels and even the old DJ's I listened to from the 70's are BACK ON THE AIR! (probably doing their broadcasts from assisted living facilities...) I was so blown away by these great HD Radio choices I desparately wanted one for my giant home sound system. Sadly though, I found only 2 reasonably priced choices for a compotent tuner.
The 50's and 60 age group need to be aware that their generation music has shifted to HD Radio, but HD isn't in all cars, and stores don't market HD radio, so how would they know? This is a new marketing challenge. I did see a billboard yesterday advertising a new HD2 70's format music station that just hit the airwaves. At least that billboard is a start. Many people though will scratch their head and ask themselves, "how do I get 98.7 HD2???"
So the idea that HD Radio is dead depends specifically on the content it has to offer and the generation it intends to serve. The older generation, if they know about it, will probably appreciate the music choices, as I do.(Demand) And, this age group has more disposable income which should attract advertisers.(Potential Revenue) Better HD Radio marketing is only part of the answer. Radio manufacturers also need to add that capability to newly manufactured radios. Years ago, didn't the govt. mandate that all car radios also pick up FM after a certain date? It would help to have that mandate again with HD Radio. Auto manufacturers shouldn't be providing AM/FM radios without this capability, but many still do and it's not serving the customer!
Proper marketing and programming, coupled with the availability of HD radio devices, could make HD profitable for the next 10 years with the older age groups, Sadly though, after that, I believe our younger generation will then turn their back on ALL OTA services and embrace 5G services (while paying the bill). FM, VHF, UHF free services are just not in their vocabulary. I also believe the FCC will eventually re-allocate the FM band and the commercial TV bands to the telcoms. Meanwhile though, I'm sure enjoying the wonderful HD radio music choices!