Andrew thanks for the reply, there are some points that I take issue with, probably most of which is due to a difference in our ages (I'am 50).
Hardcore Metal? Probably not. Way too compartmentalized and not enough of a "lifestyle." Lets face it - it doesn't have the mass appeal that hip hop did
To say this ignores the entire Seattle grunge era of the late '80s -mid '90s during which time it morphed into the softer "alternative" sound. Some of that later style has re-emerged popular today, but not enough to be considered a trend.
. Punk - already done. Would have been bigger if it wasn't the stepchild to hip hop.
Here is where age difference may be playing a role in perception. Punk was never a "stepchild" of hip-hop, it first gained popularity in the UK mid-70s, never had any commercial success here and about the only correlation I can think of, is that punk's "peak" here was 1979 -the year rap was said to have emerged from the burning ghettos of the Bronx.
You may be thinking of the later "Grunge" and the brief rap-rock fusion of the late 1990s.
Look to the spanish stations to find the next big thing. The white (and black) audiences have become segmented and compartmentalized by the industry. The latino audience has not (at least to the extent of the former).
The white and black audiences have diverged due to issues of taste and ability to now program one's favorite music and never have to be exposed to styles you don't care for. I sell music via over two dozen jukeboxes in the NYC and NJ, I see 14-17K plays/wk, rap never sold well to whites and rock-alternative never did well in black areas. From the late '50s through the late '80s there was alot of crossover, in the early 1990s the black music industry began to focus on the hip-hop sound and the two groups diverged.
Yes, I know that its claimed that white kids bought the bulk of rap product, but you have to remember two points here: First, this was mostly limited to white kids living in isolated suburbs where the attraction of the "big bad" inner city has allways had appeal. It also occured after grunge had burned-out and these kids were looking for something else to torture their parents with.
Second: This era conincided with the rise of both home CD burners and filesharing, any retail sales figures from the early '00s-on are unreliable as indicators of popularity.
Look to the spanish stations to find the next big thing. The white (and black) audiences have become segmented and compartmentalized by the industry. The latino audience has not (at least to the extent of the former).
This is an intesting area to me personally as I have many close Mexican nationals as friends. Untill the last 2-3 years most of the latin roots music here in the northeast was from the carribean via P.R. and Dominican Republic. Most Mexicans sort-of adopted this, atleast for radio listening, when they arrived here. Now however CD burning, internet listening and filsharing are changing that and Mexicans are able to access more of their own preferrences. It appears that this is beginning to be reflected in radio listening habits aswell.
All of this adds up why I and those I know in the recording-promo industry are wondering if there will ever be another major trend.
Lino
