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The Future Of The AM/FM Dial Looks Bleak

D

DominiqueRadio

Guest
I had a long conversation about this topic with a good friend of mine recently. What are your thoughts? I am pasting my latest MySA blog on here but you can read it here and see the pictures as well.

http://voices.mysanantonio.com/dominiquegarcia/2010/11/the-future-of-the-amfm-dial-lo.html

We are in a sense living in the final days of the traditional AM/FM radios. For decades the radio has been an instrumental tool for entertainment, informative information regarding bad weather, or news concerning local and or world events.

In an industry where the majority of radio broadcasters yearn for live and local radio personalities, the future doesn't look to bright.

As technology advances we will soon be seeing the birth of wifi in all homes and vehicles.

So what does that mean? With over half of all radio listening done within the car, internet radio companies such as Tim Westergren's Pandora Radio are eyeing into moving their internet radio stations into all automobiles. This will also act as a promotion to those who are still not aware of internet radio services like pandora which provides hundreds of stations tayloring to different musical taste.

Pandora isn't alone in this revolutionary movement either. Other online radio companies are also in the business of looking into putting their services into the automotive industry as well.

Pandora, which has over 40 million subscribers has also tapped into other high tech devices such as blu-ray players and flat screen televisions. So it is only logical they want to continue to expand.

In a recent interview Mr. Westergren has claimed that he is actively working with car manufactures that will put wifi and his beloved internet radio service into every single car that rolls off the assembly line.

So what does this mean for live and local radio? Hands down a global range of listeners beats the limited local listeners that terrestrial radio provides. Advertisers can now advertise their business on a global level instead of just a local one. A perk that many businesses would love to benefit from.

Not only would this be a huge advantage to businesses, it would most likely be cheaper as well. There will still be a need for the smaller local businesses to advertise, but it is most likely the demands for the bigger businesses will overshadow them.

I speculate that the local businesses is what will keep the terrestrial radio stations afloat for a time being. However in the end, I do not see terrestrial radio surviving.

Musicians would also benefit from this global platform. While promoting any given album, promoters usually travel to different radio markets to promote their music to the local radio stations. Scoring spins on a global radio service would surely eliminate the need to do this. So off the bat the live and local terrestrial radio stations lose advertisers and the interest from record labels.

Surely this change will not happen overnight. I estimate this will take place within the next 5 years and the death of the traditional AM/FM radio somewhere between 10 to 15 years. Again this is all speculation, however the potential of such internet services cannot be denied.
 
Strong radio brands will prosper, beyond the AM/FM spectrum.
Investors who put their money in licenses instead of talent will have problems.
The old formula, of identifying a community and serving its needs, will remain. Only the delivery method will change.
 
Technology and consolidation in the last 15 years have led to a tremendous reduction in localism. AM and FM radio can't compete with broadand-delivered content that isn't local, because broadband has channels for every conceivable niche.

IMO, the way local broadcasters will differentiate themselves in the future will be by providing local content. Having the best mix of music in your market won't be a big draw for the most desirable listeners, because they can now listen to stations playing the same format online..
 
I would suggest AM/FM still has some life to it. Check out the cume numbers in the ratings. You can't reach those kinds of numbers in your market with an out-of-market internet stream.
 
we are always living the last days of traditional (insert media here).

radio is evolving. for the better.

tv is evolving. for the better.

the only people bothered by the change of media/mediums are those that dont have the foresight to keep up.
 
In 10 years the AM/FM will be used for broadband, emergency services, air traffic controllers simular to the analog TV channels, it will be only HD radio, XM, Pandora, and clones of Pandora, and the FCC will give out coupons for converters. AM/FM will be like analog VHF/UHF as today. I don't anticpate they will give LP stations any additonal time for the conversion because it will be less expensive to upgrade hence they did that for broadcast television. The FCC was already talking about HD radio transition before HDTV and HD Radio rolled out. Maybe sooner 2017, maybe.
 
Two years ago, pundits were predicting the end of the Republican party.

daypart said:
IMO, the way local broadcasters will differentiate themselves in the future will be by providing local content.

There's lots of local content on the web, even in small towns. And it's updated quicker on the web.

Why wait ten minutes for a traffic report when you can have a customized report sent to your cell phone for free?
 
TheBigA said:
Why wait ten minutes for a traffic report when you can have a customized report sent to your cell phone for free?

I wonder where that "customized" traffic report is prepared. Dallas, Los Angeles, or heaven forbid overseas? A live, local body gathering the traffic information would actually be fielding phone calls from drivers and listening to scanners from your town, something the outsourced and automated traffic gatherers are not setup to do.
 
fredcantu said:
I wonder where that "customized" traffic report is prepared. Dallas, Los Angeles, or heaven forbid overseas? A live, local body gathering the traffic information would actually be fielding phone calls from drivers and listening to scanners from your town, something the outsourced and automated traffic gatherers are not setup to do.

That live body could be anywhere in the world gathering that same information. Cell phone calls and scanner traffic can be routed anywhere. The technology exists right now.
 
It CAN be done anywhere, but that doesn't mean it IS being done. Remember the advantage of outsourcing is that you have the same people or machinery putting together traffic reports for various markets at the same time. That means your market is not getting 100% attention. Content can be outsourced. Caring for your listeners cannot.
 
Thus speaks 21st Century radio. Listen to what we tell you to and buy the products sheeple.

Pay no attention to that iPod between the seats.
 
TheBigA said:
The listeners just want the information. They have family and friends who care about them.

It's that kind of thinking that's losing local radio listeners everyday. Remember when radio was part of your life and local DJs were like family? It wasn't that long ago.
 
fredcantu said:
It's that kind of thinking that's losing local radio listeners everyday. Remember when radio was part of your life and local DJs were like family? It wasn't that long ago.

That was before computers and cell phones. There's nothing radio can do that will cause people to throw away their computers and cell phones. Stop living in the past, and deal with the present.
 
Here I am in the same thread making a point for the other side of the argument.

TheBigA said:
That was before computers and cell phones. There's nothing radio can do that will cause people to throw away their computers and cell phones. Stop living in the past, and deal with the present.
There may be nothing radio can do to stop the competition from information on the web, but don't underestimate lawmakers. In San Antonio, the city council passed a new law that says cell phones can't be used for anything but making calls while driving. That law almost eliminated the value of traffic information on the cell phone. Advantage: radio. ;)
 
Have to admit, one of the programmers on my station does local news, traffic and weather for our town from their studio in Beijing China, delivered by an American voice. The internet makes it all possible. Best of all, you get a more extensive forcast and better detailed traffic than the local newstalk but I'd say the news is a bit behind the local newstalker but not by much.
 
Don't know about that, but when severe weather hits, we can usually beat the primary stations in getting weather warnings on the air. We are manned and are live and local in severe weather. Usually the EAS goes off at the end or right after we have first reported the weather warning on the station.
 
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