AM radio will probably die before the next two decades are done. AM's current demos are 55+, with virtually no growth at all in any demos younger than that,
It could be true if AM listener numbers weren't dynamic, but they are. The country is aging fast, and more people are moving into the 35+ demo than are moving out of it (dying.) The median age in the USA must be around 36 by now.
It would seem that the younger skewing FM music stations are in bigger trouble than the major market News/Talk/Sports AMs, who have listeners aging into them, not out of them.
I remember the mantra in the early 70s that newspapers didn't have a reader under 30 If this was a static situation, there would hardly be a newspaper reader left in the US 40 years later, but there still are. Newspapers are being done in by the new technology, but their problems are unique to the newspaper industry.
and AM-HD has too many problems with propagation, mutual interference between stations and interference from you-name-it to make any difference.
AM-HD, like AM stereo before it, is something nobody but radio buffs cares about.
With few exceptions AM radio, even in major markets and even in places where AM radio still dominates, is a hard sell to advertisers, because even those with large audiences have crummy demos.
Not really. It is the advertising business which is adapting, since older demos are who you have to pitch to to survive, because that's where the people are, especially the people with money. Even the famous F18-34 golden demo actually only applied to advertisers of packaged goods. Entirely new advertising categories were created by cable tv, and have filtered down to both radio and alphabet television (which also has the same aging demo situation as radio.)
Even FM radio is probably doomed, although it will take longer. The large number of alternatives to radio, which young people have grown up with and never been without, are going to start taking a toll when they age into the desirable 25-54 demo. They don't have the same radio habit that previous generations did, and within a decade or so that will start translating into a steep drop in the saleable demos that radio has always had.
Using the year 2000 as a benchmark, since the rise of Digital Audio (120+ million sets in use), high speed internet and streaming, and satellite radio, the percentage of people 12+ in the US considered traditional radio listeners has actually gone up slightly, and despite up and down years in between, has stayed at a remarkably steady 70% (230 million.) And, with some estimates placing up to 90 percent of terrestial radio listenership in automobiles (w/425 million radios), and with satellite and DA not running what you might call hyper-local content (News, weather, traffic, local issue talk) this would seem to bode well for the forseeable future, especially for big full-service AM and FMs.
Greater Media just paid $100 mil for a cluster in Charlotte, NC, market #33. The folks who put out the cash don't seem to think that traditional broadcast has a short shelf-life.
If they don't adapt, and start that adaptation now, they will be irrelevant and dead. Some people I know at Entercom have already heard David Field state openly that Entercom is no longer a radio company, but a provider of content, and that's the paradigm shift which must occur to keep radio companies from stagnating themselves out of business.
Stations are already adapting, so what is the point? All the big groups (and some of the minor ones) have already embraced the internet, changed their sales model from 'spot' to across-the-board multi-media campaigns (think Shaw's deal with Entercom) and there's no reason to think they won't keep adapting if it suits their purposes. They may not immediately jump on something new just because it's new, but will do what they have to do to stay relevant and viable in the marketplace. Those that won't, or can't afford, to adapt, will go away, but not the medium in general or the major players in particular.
Interestingly, the only electronic medium that has a business model that doesn't work is one of the most hi-tech innovations of them all, satellite radio. Although sat radio was a cure for which there was no known disease, like the rest of the entertainment/information spectrum, they'll find a way to eventually make it work, since there is too much money already at stake for them to let it fail. Sooner or later, they'll find a way to keep the service viable.
I think you can keep those presets set for the rest of your life, and they'll still a station there when you press the button.
Regards.
TSB