Victorville Radio Revenue - What is the market worth?

[Hunter]

Please help me clear up a debate I'm having. Before their small market spin offs, I believe CC and CBS simulcast LA and Riverside signals into Victorville. Did they make any money from it? What is the market worth? I haven't seen any financial data, but I've seen a BIA home market report which shows 34 signals as home to the market, but most are no where near the area...in fact some are actually 200 miles away. Is it even a legitamite radio revenue market? I'm guessing that since CC and CBS were there, it must have been.

 

[davideduardo]

Please help me clear up a debate I'm having. Before their small market spin offs, I believe CC and CBS simulcast LA and Riverside signals into Victorville. Did they make any money from it? What is the market worth? I haven't seen any financial data, but I've seen a BIA home market report which shows 34 signals as home to the market, but most are no where near the area...in fact some are actually 200 miles away. Is it even a legitamite radio revenue market? I'm guessing that since CC and CBS were there, it must have been.

I was unaware that any LA station simulcasts on a Victor Valley MSA station... it would make no sense. The market is only about 500 thousand people and would add nothing to the rates LA stations could charge, and as a simulcast, could not sell local spots.

CBS does rebroadcast Riverside's KFRG on 103.1 in the Victor Valley, but I believe it is not a true simulcast as it runs local commercials in the stopsets... or did the last time I listened.

There are 32 commercial stations licnesed in the actual market, 7 AM and 25 FMs and they split up around $10 million in revenue in a declining market. There are also 3 non-coms, for a total of 35 local signals in a very, very big area fanging from 29 Palms to Barstow.

Yes, it's a legitimate market and it does have 35 local signals. It's the 117th market in size, nationally, and 168th in revenue. Contrast this to the Palm Springs metro, which is 131st in population but 122nd in revenue... a much better market. And Palm Springs only has 14 FM and 8 AM stations plus 4 non-coms.

 

[Hunter]

I was unaware that any LA station simulcasts on a Victor Valley MSA station... it would make no sense. The market is only about 500 thousand people and would add nothing to the rates LA stations could charge, and as a simulcast, could not sell local spots.

I would wonder the same thing, but I thought CC did or used to simulcast KIIS programming into the area...and perhaps they inserted local spots.

CBS does rebroadcast Riverside's KFRG on 103.1 in the Victor Valley, but I believe it is not a true simulcast as it runs local commercials in the stopsets... or did the last time I listened.

There are 32 commercial stations licnesed in the actual market, 7 AM and 25 FMs and they split up around $10 million in revenue in a declining market. There are also 3 non-coms, for a total of 35 local signals in a very, very big area fanging from 29 Palms to Barstow.

Trying to look at Victorville alone, At a quick glance of the Victor Valley market list, it would appear that at least 20 of the signals, which is well over half, do not get anywhere near Victorville. Kingman-AZ, Baker-CA, even Barstow is it's own community. Wonder how much of the 10 mil the stations that actually serve Victorville split?

Yes, it's a legitimate market and it does have 35 local signals. It's the 117th market in size, nationally, and 168th in revenue. Contrast this to the Palm Springs metro, which is 131st in population but 122nd in revenue... a much better market. And Palm Springs only has 14 FM and 8 AM stations plus 4 non-coms.

I understand that Arbitron, BIA, etc consider it a market, but I would hardly call it legit....given the locations and COL for the stations that are considered to be local, I don't really see a comparison to PS or any other market whose majority signals actually cover a significant portion of the market. In fact Joshua Tree and 29 Palms are significantly closer to PS than Victorville geographically speaking - mountain issues aside.

Is there any money for the stations that actually serve the Victorville area? Given the strength of Kfrog - I would imagine that 103.1 does.

 

[davideduardo]

I would wonder the same thing, but I thought CC did or used to simulcast KIIS programming into the area...and perhaps they inserted local spots.

If they inserted local spots, it's not a simulcast. And Clear does not own any stations in the MSA.

Trying to look at Victorville alone, At a quick glance of the Victor Valley market list, it would appear that at least 20 of the signals, which is well over half, do not get anywhere near Victorville. Kingman-AZ, Baker-CA, even Barstow is it's own community. Wonder how much of the 10 mil the stations that actually serve Victorville split?

There are no AZ stations in the market. I posted a list of stations home to the MSA under the other post you made. Metros often contain many stations that do not cover the whole metro... for example, only 3 stations cover the entire San Francisco metro, and none are FMs. The metro is defined by Arbitron under the "50-15" standard and is accepted by the subscribing stations.

I understand that Arbitron, BIA, etc consider it a market, but I would hardly call it legit....given the locations and COL for the stations that are considered to be local, I don't really see a comparison to PS or any other market whose majority signals actually cover a significant portion of the market. In fact Joshua Tree and 29 Palms are significantly closer to PS than Victorville geographically speaking - mountain issues aside.

The metro is only defined by Arbitron for measurement purposes. The map of the metro is on the arbitron website.

Is there any money for the stations that actually serve the Victorville area? Given the strength of Kfrog - I would imagine that 103.1 does.

KFRG bills about a half-million.

Leading billers are KZXY, KDGL (together 30% of market revenue), KATJ, KIXA and KCDZ (those three take another 27% of the revenure). Then KDUC, KRXV, KRAK, KHDR and KVFG take about 26% with the rest all spread out among the remaining stations.

It's not a great market.

 

[Hunter]

I would wonder the same thing, but I thought CC did or used to simulcast KIIS programming into the area...and perhaps they inserted local spots.

If they inserted local spots, it's not a simulcast. And Clear does not own any stations in the MSA.

Dave, I greatly appreciate your info and input...but I'm sure that you understand my context of "simulcast". Perhaps I'll use "rebroadcast" next time and that won't get your ire up with technicallities.

I thought CC used to run KIIS programing with local inserts there....I heard it on my way to Vegas years ago....O.K. I just looked it up and I maybe I picked up the rebroadcast of KIIS on KVVS-Rosamond - Lancaster/Palmdale.

There are no AZ stations in the market. I posted a list of stations home to the MSA under the other post you made. Metros often contain many stations that do not cover the whole metro... for example, only 3 stations cover the entire San Francisco metro, and none are FMs. The metro is defined by Arbitron under the "50-15" standard and is accepted by the subscribing stations.

According to BIA Kingman AZ stations are home to the market - See the BIA "FCC geographic market definition for Victor Valley" here:
http://fjallfoss.fcc.gov/prod/cdbs/...h.cgi?exhibit_id=596470&formid=301&q_num=5040

The metro is only defined by Arbitron for measurement purposes. The map of the metro is on the arbitron website.

The market is not only defined by Arbitron...see my post above.

KFRG bills about a half-million.

Leading billers are KZXY, KDGL (together 30% of market revenue), KATJ, KIXA and KCDZ (those three take another 27% of the revenure). Then KDUC, KRXV, KRAK, KHDR and KVFG take about 26% with the rest all spread out among the remaining stations.

Beautiful! That's the kind of info that I was curious about. Thanks!

It's not a great market.

Markets are usually designated so due to centralized population and/or trading areas. The Victor Valley has neither of these characteristics. There may be a few national dollars spent in the market because Arbitron has aggregated it as such, but it's a poor excuse for a market. If all the population were centralized to one location, commerce would likely be stronger, and there wouldn't be as many signals trying to serve the population, so it would be a healthier radio market...much like your PS example.

 

[GeorgeJ.]

Hunter, you are correct in your recollection. KIIS-FM was simulcast on one of the area stations (Barstow, I believe; but I don't recall which one) back in the early 90's or so.

Clear Channel had a rather big cluster up there in those days between Barstow & Victorville/Apple Valley. They used to own KATJ, KIXA, KIXW, KZXY, and KROY.

They seemed to have all been run out of a location on Hesperia Road in Victorville back then.

 

[davideduardo]

Dave, I greatly appreciate your info and input...but I'm sure that you understand my context of "simulcast". Perhaps I'll use "rebroadcast" next time and that won't get your ire up with technicallities.

I understand your usage, of course. The thing is that Arbitron only considers a simulcast to be two stations that are 100% parallel, 100% of the time. Granted, it's a technicality but the term is very precise... and very important today where web streams are not simulcasts, etc.

I thought CC used to run KIIS programing with local inserts there....I heard it on my way to Vegas years ago....

Another post confirms that there was a simulcast or rebroadcast about 15 years ago. Good memory!

According to BIA Kingman AZ stations are home to the market - See the BIA "FCC geographic market definition for Victor Valley" here:
http://fjallfoss.fcc.gov/prod/cdbs/...h.cgi?exhibit_id=596470&formid=301&q_num=5040

That is not the current definition. The definition used by BIA is the one provided by Arbitron for its radio survey activities, and it includes the stations listed in my post on the other thread. No AZ station is home to the market in BIA's current definition.

Markets are usually designated so due to centralized population and/or trading areas. The Victor Valley has neither of these characteristics. There may be a few national dollars spent in the market because Arbitron has aggregated it as such, but it's a poor excuse for a market. If all the population were centralized to one location, commerce would likely be stronger, and there wouldn't be as many signals trying to serve the population, so it would be a healthier radio market...much like your PS example.

There are many such markets like the Flagstaff/Prescott market, NW Michigan (Traverse City) and even Puerto Rico. In the PR market, it takes minimum 3 full B FMs to cover the whole market, and maybe 4 to 5 AMs. In Traverse City, many of the FMs are networked or simulcast to cover the whole market, and many stations in all cases do not cover more than half the market.

 

[Hunter]

I understand your usage, of course. The thing is that Arbitron only considers a simulcast to be two stations that are 100% parallel, 100% of the time. Granted, it's a technicality but the term is very precise... and very important today where web streams are not simulcasts, etc.

I wasn't using the term "simulcast" in respect to Arbitron. I never mentioned Arbitron in my comment. I was pointing out that the station aired the same programming, but even spelled out that there were local inserts. Albeit a loose usage of the term, I was conveying a general idea.

That is not the current definition. The definition used by BIA is the one provided by Arbitron for its radio survey activities, and it includes the stations listed in my post on the other thread. No AZ station is home to the market in BIA's current definition.

So you are saying that BIA's definition recently changed? That is a good thing, because as it was listed just over a year ago - as noted on the fcc exhibit I linked to, Kingman was included.

There are many such markets like the Flagstaff/Prescott market, NW Michigan (Traverse City) and even Puerto Rico. In the PR market, it takes minimum 3 full B FMs to cover the whole market, and maybe 4 to 5 AMs. In Traverse City, many of the FMs are networked or simulcast to cover the whole market, and many stations in all cases do not cover more than half the market.

Let's look at Flagstaff/Prescott - I have done some consulting there and I'm fairly familar with the market. Prescott, Prescott Valley, Chino Valley, Cottonwood and Flag - the main communities of significance in the market are all much more closely connected in population and trading area than Victorville, Baker or Joshua Tree, just to name a few. Several northern AZ stations cover most of the communities in the market and godzilla signal KAHM covers them all. The same can not be said for Victor Valley.

 

[Hunter]

By the way Dave, does Victorvalley see any national money? Also, since we're hearing in the trades about how awful national biz is these days, how much does LA see now? I think a few years ago it was about $400 mil.

 

[davideduardo]

[So you are saying that BIA's definition recently changed? That is a good thing, because as it was listed just over a year ago - as noted on the fcc exhibit I linked to, Kingman was included.

That BIA definition does not match anything in the BIA books I have, going back to 2000 (when the market was not listed). I do not recall when Arbitron started rating the market, but perhaps prior to same the market was defined ad hoc by BIA in a customer defined project; now it is defined by Arbitron as I can find today no instance of a BIA market definition that is not the same as Arbitron's. That may change if Nielsen and Arbitron differ on the markets Nielsen is going into...

Let's look at Flagstaff/Prescott - I have done some consulting there and I'm fairly familar with the market. Prescott, Prescott Valley, Chino Valley, Cottonwood and Flag - the main communities of significance in the market are all much more closely connected in population and trading area than Victorville, Baker or Joshua Tree, just to name a few. Several northern AZ stations cover most of the communities in the market and godzilla signal KAHM covers them all. The same can not be said for Victor Valley.

I have a residence in Prescott, and am pretty familiar with the southern parts of the market. To me, there is little cross pollenation between Flag and Prescott, and the Verde Valley area is similarly separate from both. While the distances and isolation may not be as great as in the high desert, there is certainly a bit of the same in play.

A lot of these region-based or hyphenated markets are really several contiguous but different markets, particularly in the western part of the US. Somehow, I thing they get assembled by broadcasters who want the market noticed and who realize that the only way of paying for a survey is by combining many towns and small cities just to get more subscribers. I certainly agree that there is little in common between Barstow and Joshua Tree... but for some reason, we have that market defined as it is.

 

[davideduardo]

By the way Dave, does Victorvalley see any national money? Also, since we're hearing in the trades about how awful national biz is these days, how much does LA see now? I think a few years ago it was about $400 mil.

For '08, 20% of the Victor Valley revenue is classified as "national" which usually means, simply, placed from out of market.

LA in the same year is shown at 22% national; the low number is no doubt due to the fact that the agencies that are out of market for much of the Southwest are all located in LA!

'09 is so lacking in stability that the number may end up anywhere. '08 was about 10% off '07, and '09 is estimated to be about 23% off '07.

 

[XRQKFM]

105.3 Yermo; now KRSX, use to simulcast with 97.7 KVVS Mojave which in turn did a semi simulcast with KIIS, from Clear Channel Antelope Valley cluster on K-4 in Lancaster, CA. 1220AM Santa Clarita, was also operated out of there prior to the sale to it's original owner. 105.3 has simulcast KZXY and KATJ over the years, from what was Clear Channel's Victorville cluster.

Frontier Capital Partners stations were Clear Channel before the sale


Steve
www.xrqkfm.com

 

[Hunter]

Any info on my questions about the current state of national?
And on a seperate note, regarding your residance in Prescott, if you also have rentals in the area and use a property management company that you're happy with, if you don't mind, please shoot me a pm with who you would recommend. I have a few properties there and can't find a decent management co.

 

[jonbruce]

I think it should be noted that KDGL 106.6 Yucca Valley derives all of it's income from the Palm Springs market. It's studios are in Palm Springs and I have never heard a spot for a business in the Yucca Valley-29 Palms area on that station, much less Victorville or Barstow.

 

[amfmxm]

Please help me clear up a debate I'm having. Before their small market spin offs, I believe CC and CBS simulcast LA and Riverside signals into Victorville. Did they make any money from it? What is the market worth? I haven't seen any financial data, but I've seen a BIA home market report which shows 34 signals as home to the market, but most are no where near the area...in fact some are actually 200 miles away. Is it even a legitamite radio revenue market? I'm guessing that since CC and CBS were there, it must have been.

FWIW, here's another way to analyze the "market" from afar (that is to say, you could get a much better take on things if you knew some of the broadcasters up there personally)...

Radio-locator.com lists 39 stations providing a "local quality" (60 dBu FM or 5.0 mVm AM) signal to Victorville. Go through the list and toss out the non-comms, the translators, the LA & R/SB stations, and the AMs--on the sweeping generalization that most small-market AMs are worthless--and you come up with about a half-dozen local FMs.

The immediate Victorville-Apple Valley-Hesperia-Adelanto "market" has grown to nearly 300,000 people--about the size of Pittsburgh or St. Louis (really)--without their suburbs, of course.

So splitting up whatever local radio pie among 5 or 6 local FM sticks should be enough for everybody. An educated guess would put the radio billing somewhere in the $5 million to $10 million range, so David's estimate may not be too far off. I'd hedge closer toward the $5 million mark--maybe $6 or $7 million. Even though it's on the edge of the LA umbrella, radio listenership is undoubtedly impacted, making it that much tougher for local sellers to make their case.

 

[XRQKFM]

Most Los Angeles FM's, have marginal signals; that are spotty in much of the Victor Valley.

The immediate Victorville-Apple Valley-Hesperia-Adelanto "market" has grown to nearly 300,000 people

The cities of Lancaster/Palmdale has a population of over 300,000, it the two populations were to be combined into a single radio market "High Desert"; then you would have a sizable radio market. Many signals like KAVL & KIXW AM already cover both population centers, as well as many FM's. Most Los Angeles signals; AM or FM are marginal, despite what Radio Locator would have you believe. Radio Locator, should be taken with a grain of salt when mountains come between the community in question and the transmitter. In real life; Bakersfield, Fresno and San Diego FM's have better signals in the Antelope Valley, than L.A.'s FM's. Radio Locator, would have you believing otherwise.


Steve
www.knjoradio.com