Savage said:
I understand also that the licensing fees are not insignificant, even if they're not recurring.
If memory serves me, I think my latest offer from Ibiquity was for a "special" license fee in the $14,000 - 15,000 range. The pitch was “get it before the price goes up.” That fee is for a station with an ERP of 74 watts. It makes zero economic sense.
We also broadcast on three translators. I didn't bother to ask how they would be licensed, however Fanfare/Crown makes a translator that avoids the license fee by never demodulating the signal. That's nice if it works, but using Fanfare receivers right now, I have enough trouble getting the analog signal to work in well in stereo. Adding HD to the mix would probably make for an impossible situation. To a station with a very small operating budget, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out.
To the large broadcast companies, the fees are just "chump change." They'd probably blow more than the fee on just one poorly conceived promotion. To anyone less than a major market flamethrower, the fees are quite significant. Perhaps the growing disparity between large and small broadcasters is one of the general problems in broadcasting right now and maybe a really specific problem in the HD debate.
You have a lot of "giants" who own the choice stations in the major markets. To them adding HD is no big deal. The next tier are the mid-range guys, who typically own several small clusters that serve mid to small size markets like Kalamazoo, Michigan or Tyler, Texas. These companies usually do fairly well, but paying the license fee for all of the stations in their cluster is a bigger nut to crack. Add to that the cost of actually upgrading their equipment and we're talking some significant cash from their perspective. Will their return on investment be significant enough to make this worth while? At least, right now, the answer is probably "no." There is also the uncertainty that the FCC might actually approve a higher IBOC signal level, so who wants to buy equipment now that may have to be replaced in the foreseeable future?
Then there are the third tier stations which, for sake of argument, include small "mom & pop" AM & FM stations, LPFM and translators. If you are 1000 watts, running a 10 watt digital signal makes little sense, unless you are doing it for reasons of scientific discovery. It probably won't get you a single new listener.
Although it has been acknowledged that the major markets are the only ones worth fooling with to make a lot of money, there are still a quite a few people, and a lot of stations that don't fall into that category. Some of them are even successful in their own right. I doubt Ibiquity will be able to sell their technology to any of these folks. I don't have exact numbers, but I think in round figures, there are about 4500 small, full power stations, 800 LPFMs and around 3500 translators on the air right now. There are a lot more translators coming on line very soon. In round figures, that is 9000 customers out of the potential 13,000 stations that probably will never adopt the technology, unless something radically changes.
If they number of HD programming sources remains small, I think you will find that the public's general interest will remain small as well. It sounds like AM stereo all over again.