VIEW OF THE FUTURE: NBC BEATEN BY 4 CABLE NETWORKS AT 10PM THUR. (18-49)

[gregg75]

Seems to be just a matter of time before some cable networks outshine the broadcast networks.
Cable seems to be getting better while the networks are getting worse.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/01/ouch-nbc-finishes-in-8th-place-thursday-10-pm/#more-217981

 

[mjlarochelle]

What a surprise. Aside from a few dramas on CBS, NBC's Law & Order SVU, and Family Guy on FOX, I don't watch much of the broadcast TV offerings anymore.

 

[flytrap]

That's embarrasing. Coming in 8th place when their really are only 4 major networks. 5 if you include Univision (CW is so low it doesn't count) and cable reruns at that. I would expect "The Firm" to be canceled soon.

 

[bpatrick]

Except for the fact that CBS has several 10 PM shows that do well,
I wouldn't object if it, ABC, and NBC followed Fox's lead and gave 10 PM
back to the affiliates for local news; the affiliates would probably love it,
since the ratings potential at 10 is greater than at 6 or 11 (look in the
Central and Mountain time zones, or at some Fox affiliates, such as Birmingham,
that do their news at 9 (CT)).

 

[LKellerIII]

Except for the fact that CBS has several 10 PM shows that do well,
I wouldn't object if it, ABC, and NBC followed Fox's lead and gave 10 PM
back to the affiliates for local news; the affiliates would probably love it,
since the ratings potential at 10 is greater than at 6 or 11 (look in the
Central and Mountain time zones, or at some Fox affiliates, such as Birmingham,
that do their news at 9 (CT)).

Some past experiments have not borne that out. In the 90s in the Bay Area, both KPIX (CBS) and KRON (then NBC) went to early prime-time (7:00 - 10:00), starting their late news at 10:00. The hope was to get some of those prime-time news ratings garnered by KTVU (Fox), which was dominant in the late news ratings.

They even came up with a rationalization - that the Bay Area was an "early to bed town," so the change would serve viewers better. I have no idea where they came up with that falsehood.

The experiment was a colossal blunder - KTVU only lost a ratings point or two - it stayed dominant at 10:00 for news, and the ratings for the CBS and NBC formerly 8:00, now 7:00 network shows plummeted.

The only winner was KGO-TV (ABC), whose 10:00 shows went way up in the ratings, as did their 11:00 late news...because both suddenly had no competition. KGO-TV also grabbed Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune away from KRON because the producers preferred the 7:00 hour for their two game shows. In fact, I believe Jeopardy and Wheel on KGO-TV were getting higher ratings than the network shows on the other 2 affiliates.

The only time I know of that this experiment has been a success is KOVR Sacramento (CBS), which did it first (before KPIX and KRON), and still has early-prime time to this day.

 

[bpatrick]

You raise a good point, which didn't occur to me, but I'm not
suggesting a 7 PM primetime start in the Eastern and Pacific
time zones; rather, an 8-10 Mon-Sat and 7-10 Sunday, as
Fox does. I know ABC, CBS, and NBC would fight to the death
to keep the 10-11 hour, but I'm surprised the affiliates don't lobby
the networks for the time. But then again, the CBS/NBC disaster
against the Fox affiliate in the Bay Area might be a deterrent. Anyway,
point taken.

 

[LKellerIII]

You raise a good point, which didn't occur to me, but I'm not
suggesting a 7 PM primetime start in the Eastern and Pacific
time zones; rather, an 8-10 Mon-Sat and 7-10 Sunday, as
Fox does. I know ABC, CBS, and NBC would fight to the death
to keep the 10-11 hour, but I'm surprised the affiliates don't lobby
the networks for the time. But then again, the CBS/NBC disaster
against the Fox affiliate in the Bay Area might be a deterrent. Anyway,
point taken.

Maybe my point got lost in my long-winded history lesson. I didn't think you were lobbying for "early prime" - I was just pointing out that that suddenly having that 10:00 hour for local news is no panacea, as KRON and KPIX found out in the 90s. It just split up the available audience for news at that hour into smaller pieces.

So if...let's say - NBC decided to turn the 10:00 hour back to the affiliates, it would only make them look weak and helpless, and would mean higher ratings for the ABC and CBS shows at 10:00. If 2 networks gave back the 10:00 hour to affiliates, the big winner would be the network that retained network programming from 10 - 11.

The other lesson, I think is - habits dies hard. In that 90s Bay Area situation, very few people switched from KTVU's long established 10:00 News to KRON or KPIX. The news viewers at 10:00 stuck with what they were used to - KTVU. Most markets probably already have a 10:00 newscast (on a Fox or indy station), so other affiliates might want to think twice before they compete directly.

 

[Bob1370]

"Seems to be just a matter of time before some cable networks outshine the broadcast networks.
Cable seems to be getting better while the networks are getting worse."

Nothing is set in stone. All any network needs to do is launch one great show, and believe in it--and it can retake command in that timeslot.

 

[DToTheJ]

"View of the future"? This is just like a couple of years ago, when NBC was beaten by four broadcast networks at 10 PM every night!

 

[bpatrick]

Re giving 10/9 back to ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates: I think there
are some affiliates of those networks that could beat Fox head-to-
head (I think WSB could beat WAGA, WFAA beat KDFW, and maybe
WABC beat WNYW), but that's simply off-the-top-of-my-head thinking.

To address the point of how one show could turn the 10 PM slot around
for NBC, one show could turn the whole network around (remember how
"The Cosby Show" did it?), and I remember when all the "experts" thought
ABC would stay on top for years in the late '70s; it took CBS only three
years to reclaim the number-one slot and they did it, essentially, with
three shows: "60 Minutes," "Dallas," and "The Dukes Of Hazzard."

I'm afraid the weight of the argument is in favor of you guys. I still wonder,
though, why the affiliates of ABC, CBS, and NBC haven't lobbied to get their
respective networks to follow Fox's lead and give back 10 PM.

 

[LKellerIII]

I still wonder,
though, why the affiliates of ABC, CBS, and NBC haven't lobbied to get their
respective networks to follow Fox's lead and give back 10 PM.

Some of them may have, but the networks still hold the power. Not to get into another history lesson...but the best cautionary tale is probably that of Young Broadcasting, and their purchase of KRON (San Francisco) early in the last decade. Skipping a lot of detail: NBC wanted to purchase KRON to make it an O&O, but Young outbid them by paying WAY too much for the station. NBC then put heavy pressure on Young in order to change the affiliation agreement in NBC's favor. Young held firm and refused, so NBC bought KNTV (San Jose) and pulled the network affiliation from KRON. The Youngs thought they had some pull, but mis-calculated the extent of their power at every step. Young Broadcasting was left with a huge debt load to service, and no way to pay the bills given that they now had a suddenly bottom-rated independent station to program - the ultimate result being bankruptcy of the corporation.

So even if some affiliates have "asked" for that 10:00 hour back, I'm sure it has been refused by the netwroks in no uncertain terms.

 

[mnradiofan]

This is not surprising, seeing as how the cable networks have larger budgets to work from (subscriber fees and ad revenue).

But to call this the "view of the future" assumes one thing. That Cable TV will still be a dominant force in 20 years. The cost to have cable is starting to get to the point where many are having a harder and harder time justifying it. Basic cable alone has gone from $35 to $75 per month in the last 15 years (a 110% increase). How much higher can it go before people decide that it's not worth it anymore? I already know several people who have "cut the cord" and I think the trend will continue, as programming providers drive the costs above what a family is willing to spend on entertainment.

 

[landtuna]

So even if some affiliates have "asked" for that 10:00 hour back, I'm sure it has been refused by the netwroks in no uncertain terms.

Those of you who don't live in the Mountain Time Zone may not know that is has always been customary to present the late news at 10PM local vs the 11PM of other zones.

The local indies who have news shows and Fox which has no national news all begin their late news at 9PM local and one, at least, follows that up with yet another news presentation at 10PM.

Since the Fox station's three daily news shows are essentially exact copies of each other and the indie station provides back-to-back late night news the only purpose for these duplications seems to be the opportunity to air more and more commercials. Unless your news interest is fires and vehicle accidents there is not much unique content.

 

[Markxxx]

I think the networks are just going to evolve. Like they did when TV came out and radio evolved. Slowly. First scripted shows moved to TV. This left radio with music and talk and sports. Then FM evolved to get the music and AM to sports and talk. Now I see FM is getting news radio, at least in Chicago.

The bottom line as long as it makes money it'll survive. You can be last and still make money. And you can be first and lose money.

 

[KyDXIn]

To address the point of how one show could turn the 10 PM slot around
for NBC, one show could turn the whole network around (remember how
"The Cosby Show" did it?), and I remember when all the "experts" thought
ABC would stay on top for years in the late '70s; it took CBS only three
years to reclaim the number-one slot and they did it, essentially, with
three shows: "60 Minutes," "Dallas," and "The Dukes Of Hazzard."

CBS put the "Dukes of Hazzard" on as a mid-season replacement in January 1979, while Bill Paley was on vacation. When he came back to the States, the Dukes were already rated number one. At that point it was too late to cancel another hillbilly hit. In the following clip, James Best, aka Rosco P. Coltrane, discusses how the cast made the show interesting and fun!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMSusdF0g_Q&feature=related

 

[TVCOOL]

NBC can give 10pm et/pt /9pm ct/mt back to the stations and just run 1hr local news and air The Tonight Show at 11pm et/pt 10pm ct/mt and all the 10 pm shows move them to different times and/or days (Law and Order SVU can end NBC Wednesdays at 9pm). Then CBS & ABC may follow suit.

 

[vchimpanzee]

That's embarrasing. Coming in 8th place when their really are only 4 major networks. 5 if you include Univision (CW is so low it doesn't count) and cable reruns at that. I would expect "The Firm" to be canceled soon.

A rerun of "The Voice" replaced it last week. I needed the time to watch what was on my TiVo because it's yelling at me now. I need that time even worse because it's literally threatening me. When you try to save something until later and are shown the words "will not record" for a particular show, you're in trouble.

 

[vchimpanzee]

I actually asked TiVo to extend a show's time and didn't even get warnings. This is progress. I expect that to change tonight. But over the weekend NBC didn't make it easy.

I saw the local paper's TV listings for a couple of weeks ago last night and recognized an episode of "The Firm" that showed up on my TiVo unexpectedly. So what they decided to do was demote it to Saturday night only. Not a good sign. I was pleased when "Grimm" came on. I only knew the show's format had changed, but this wouldn't have been the case. They always have a Mary Alice segment followed by the latest update on "now", followed by the flashback, which is the episode. Now they're caught up. "Now" is "now". But I wonder if that means they can go ahead and cancel it? We still don't know what happens to him.

That last episode was really good. A retarded man was almost put away for felony murder but he gave the DA information on his brother, who was considered the better witness. So the retarded man got the deal that would keep him from serving too much time, if any.