Was it a good idea in retrospect to have taken KKBT Urban AC?

[Radiogeek500]

People here have been all like "Movin Movin Movin, it's terrible, it's low rated!

Forget Movin, The story of the year is KKBT.

Did Radio One make a smart move or a blunder that threatens their very existance?

 

[Jay F]

I would say they made a blunder. Urban AC only works in markets with a high percentage of African-Americans. It's not a good format for the West Coast.

 

[radioresearcher]

People here have been all like "Movin Movin Movin, it's terrible, it's low rated!

Forget Movin, The story of the year is KKBT.

Did Radio One make a smart move or a blunder that threatens their very existance?

It doesn't appear to have been a good idea. They have several challenges:

1) A well established competitor (KJLH)

2) A station that has a large African American adult cume that is very good (KHHT)

3) A competitor that runs the most popular African American adult morning show (KDAY)

4) Another station that does moderately well with African American adult TSL (KTWV).

They are in a very crowded field. KKBT's music, when it was Hip-Hop was able to draw about 40% Hispanic AQH. My guess is - this next book - could be around 20-30%. They are losing their Hispanic P2's and they have seen their cume drop considerably.

 

[Radiogeek500]

But the reason why they made the moves they did was because of KDAY 93.5 and Latino 96.3. Latino especially took them from a 3 share to a 1.8 when they were Hip Hop, no one can sell a Hip Hop format under a 2 share. They had to do something, I do think Urban AC was the logical choice, but RO's execution of it has been terrible, they brought in a bunch of Celeberties and Tom Joyner and Michael Baisden, watched their Celeb Jocks leave, watched Joyner sink mornings and most recently was given a heart attack when the rumors about Baisden being given the ax from ABC were flying around. I agree it looks like UAC was a bigger failure then Hip Hop, but that's because of RO's execution, not the format itself.

So here is my question, what would you have done in the face of all this?

 

[radioresearcher]

But the reason why they made the moves they did was because of KDAY 93.5 and Latino 96.3. Latino especially took them from a 3 share to a 1.8 when they were Hip Hop, no one can sell a Hip Hop format under a 2 share. They had to do something, I do think Urban AC was the logical choice, but RO's execution of it has been terrible, they brought in a bunch of Celeberties and Tom Joyner and Michael Baisden, watched their Celeb Jocks leave, watched Joyner sink mornings and most recently was given a heart attack when the rumors about Baisden being given the ax from ABC were flying around. I agree it looks like UAC was a bigger failure then Hip Hop, but that's because of RO's execution, not the format itself.

So here is my question, what would you have done in the face of all this?

Josh:

I think the bigger issue is how many possible shares there are for a pure Urban AC in Los Angeles. The African American pop is down to 7.5% - and you have no less than four stations that have large African American cume full time (KJLH, KKBT, KHHT, and KTWV). Then you have KDAY in morning drive targeting KKBT's P1's. I don't think it matters how they execute it. Unless they can do something that is multi-ethnic with it, I see it being a challenge to be anything north of a 1.0-1.5 share.

KXOL definitely hurt their numbers, because it pulled a huge amount of Power 106 P2's. KIIS's moving toward a rhythmic approach didn't help - and KDAY took some KKBT P1's.

Radio One has good Urban AC's all across America. It's just that the market doesn't have the ethnic makeup to support all of these stations - in my opinion.

 

[Radiogeek500]

Radio One has good Urban AC's all across America. It's just that the market doesn't have the ethnic makeup to support all of these stations - in my opinion.
[/quote]

People don't agree with that, they don't win in Markets where they have a competitor other then DC, and WHUR is closing in fast. RO really made a blunder by letting Harvey walk away and then grabbing Joyner instead, Joyner didn't bring the audience over to any stations RO moved him to/put him on, Steve kept the Audience and gained some including KDAY. Steve has said he won't go back to RO either because of the way he feels they handled the situation with him and KKBT and he shouldn't, KDAY has been a much better home for him.

But back to KKBT, if this next book looks awful and we think it will, VERY tough decisions will have to be made.

 

[Hamp]

When I visited the greater L.A. area, I checked out the Beat and I liked it. BUT I wondered was it a good fit for L.A.
Since the entire area is only about 7 percent African-American, could it even pull up the numbers that it needs to stay afloat?
Maybe Radio One needs to crossover this Urban AC a little bit more to stay in the game. Like Hot 92 Jamz has.
I think they need to learn to program an Urban AC for the west coast because the demographics aren't going to be the same as some of their Urban AC's in markets like: Philly, Houston, St. Louis, Atlanta, etc. In other words, places with larger black populations than L.A. In this case, Radio One needs to learn one type of format doesn't fit all.

 

[radioresearcher]

When I visited the greater L.A. area, I checked out the Beat and I liked it. BUT I wondered was it a good fit for L.A.
Since the entire area is only about 7 percent African-American, could it even pull up the numbers that it needs to stay afloat?
Maybe Radio One needs to crossover this Urban AC a little bit more to stay in the game. Like Hot 92 Jamz has.
I think they need to learn to program an Urban AC for the west coast because the demographics aren't going to be the same as some of their Urban AC's in markets like: Philly, Houston, St. Louis, Atlanta, etc. In other words, places with larger black populations than L.A. In this case, Radio One needs to learn one type of format doesn't fit all.

Hamp:

You said it exactly right. The formula Urban AC in those larger Black populated markets doesn't work in Los Angeles or many west coast markets.

KHHT is Urban AC for Los Angeles. Multi-ethnic and hit driven. That is the prototype Urban AC in a heavy Hispanic market - and that position is already taken.

I think KKBT would've had a better shot at Urban than Urban AC, in my opinion.

 

[ontopofitall]

Let's put it all in perspective and look at the players behind the scenes...Barry Mayo is the so called "consultant" and has never done well beyond Chicago and New York...Their PD Kevin Fleming is no more than a puppet of Barry...Tom Joyner didn't do well when he was here before at KACE--he's too southern for L.A. And why hasn't Kevin gone after legend Frankie Ross who had huge numbers at The Beat???

Frankie Crocker, one of the legends of all time, couldn't make his east coast sound work in Los Angeles...Radio One has to learn to respect each market individually..."cookie cutter" approaches just don't work in major markets...

 

[whatup]

As you attack the east coast folks who now program the station, you should realize that 92.3 the beat was programmed by people from the east.

 

[radioresearcher]

As you attack the east coast folks who now program the station, you should realize that 92.3 the beat was programmed by people from the east.

Comparing Urban KKBT when it launched in 1990 versus the switch to the third Urban AC in 2006 is like comparing apples and oranges.

The market has changed dramatically.

For Philly, Detroit, and New York to have two Urban AC's is one thing. To have three in L.A. (with a much smaller African American population is another).

KHHT is an Urban AC in a lot of ways. And KDAY is one during morning drive - and then there's KJLH who has been the leader in that arena for a long time.

It has nothing to do with the people involved. I think the ultimate issue could be the market demographics.

 

[whatup]

As you attack the east coast folks who now program the station, you should realize that 92.3 the beat was programmed by people from the east.

Comparing Urban KKBT when it launched in 1990 versus the switch to the third Urban AC in 2006 is like comparing apples and oranges.

The market has changed dramatically.

For Philly, Detroit, and New York to have two Urban AC's is one thing. To have three in L.A. (with a much smaller African American population is another).

KHHT is an Urban AC in a lot of ways. And KDAY is one during morning drive - and then there's KJLH who has been the leader in that arena for a long time.

It has nothing to do with the people involved. I think the ultimate issue could be the market demographics.

If you recall, there were actually three back in 1990, KJLH, KACE, and the Beat. What is actually different, would be census numbers which came out showing about a quarter of a million less black people in the L.A. Metro. The point I was making was that no matter where you are from, you can still program in L.A. Most people living in the area don't seem to be from there anyway.

 

[radioresearcher]

As you attack the east coast folks who now program the station, you should realize that 92.3 the beat was programmed by people from the east.

Comparing Urban KKBT when it launched in 1990 versus the switch to the third Urban AC in 2006 is like comparing apples and oranges.

The market has changed dramatically.

For Philly, Detroit, and New York to have two Urban AC's is one thing. To have three in L.A. (with a much smaller African American population is another).

KHHT is an Urban AC in a lot of ways. And KDAY is one during morning drive - and then there's KJLH who has been the leader in that arena for a long time.

It has nothing to do with the people involved. I think the ultimate issue could be the market demographics.

If you recall, there were actually three back in 1990, KJLH, KACE, and the Beat. What is actually different, would be census numbers which came out showing about a quarter of a million less black people in the L.A. Metro. The point I was making was that no matter where you are from, you can still program in L.A. Most people living in the area don't seem to be from there anyway.

You are right - and that was more my point ... But KACE eventually went away and we were left with KJLH and KKBT for a number of years.

But today, we have stations like KKBT, KJLH, and KDAY that are primarily targeting Black and then KHHT, KPWR, and KTWV that have significant Black cume.

There have been some excellent programmers from the east coast who have come to program in L.A. as well as a lot of other places.

 

[davideduardo]

If you recall, there were actually three back in 1990, KJLH, KACE, and the Beat. What is actually different, would be census numbers which came out showing about a quarter of a million less black people in the L.A. Metro.

The 2000 Census was implemented in Arbitron in 2002.

2000 Black population 12+ 814,000
2002 Black Population 12+ 821,000 after census
2006 Summer 818,000

For all practical purposes, there has been NO change in Black population in the last 10 years.

Your figure is off by two whole decimal places.

 

[djdramahdj]

If you recall, there were actually three back in 1990, KJLH, KACE, and the Beat. What is actually different, would be census numbers which came out showing about a quarter of a million less black people in the L.A. Metro.

The 2000 Census was implemented in Arbitron in 2002.

2000 Black population 12+ 814,000
2002 Black Population 12+ 821,000 after census
2006 Summer 818,000

For all practical purposes, there has been NO change in Black population in the last 10 years.

Your figure is off by two whole decimal places.

Thank you for stating the facts David. Now in reality, I can see a quarter of million less people in the white population in metro LA. It is interesting no one talks about that but there are all these rants about KZLA going away....

 

[davideduardo]

Thank you for stating the facts David. Now in reality, I can see a quarter of million less people in the white population in metro LA. It is interesting no one talks about that but there are all these rants about KZLA going away....

"Other" in LA includes Asian and non-Hispanic white (most Hispanics are tabulated as "white" on the race question in the Census.... Hispanics can be of any race). Arbitron has Other, Black and Hispanic as ethnic breaks, but Asians and other large LA groups are not counted separately.

Other 1998 5,573,000
Other 2002 5,460,000
Other 2006 5,433,000

Considering the growth of the Asian community, the non-immigrant, non-Aisian component in "Other" in Arbitron may have decreased by much more than 250,000. My ATM in Burbank now offers English, spanish, Russian and Thai and Korean.

The point you make about KZLA is very valid. The non-ehtnic white population of LA is decreasing rapidly.

 

[whatup]

The 2000 Census was implemented in Arbitron in 2002.

2000 Black population 12+ 814,000
2002 Black Population 12+ 821,000 after census
2006 Summer 818,000

the beat originally signed on in late 1989. you have quoted number from ten years later. try again

 

[davideduardo]

The 2000 Census was implemented in Arbitron in 2002.

2000 Black population 12+ 814,000
2002 Black Population 12+ 821,000 after census
2006 Summer 818,000

the beat originally signed on in late 1989. you have quoted number from ten years later. try again

The post referred to "when the Census came out" and I believed the poster was referring to the 2000 Census. Where does it say the 1990 Census in the post? It is logical to think the reference was to the 2000 one, since the station did just fine through the 90's, so there was no issue.

In any case, the 1990 Census showed 1,230,000 Blacks in the LA MSA and the 2000 Census showed 1,245,000.

Nowhere did the earth swallow up a quarter-million Blacks.

What did happen is that the market grew, almost entirely on Hispanic and Asian increases, and the Black population as a percentage slipped from around 11% to around 9%.

 

[whatup]

2000 Black population 12+ 814,000
2002 Black Population 12+ 821,000 after census
2006 Summer 818,000

in any case, the 1990 Census showed 1,230,000 Blacks in the LA MSA and the 2000 Census showed 1,245,000.




Just based on the above post which shows numbers from 2000 and the numbers you quoted, there is a difference of 400k. Those L.A. schools are just as bad as ever! If you had followed the comments from the beginning, you would realize that the comparison would have to include the 1980 census numbers. But if your figures are correct, you already made my point of loss of black population.

 

[davideduardo]

2000 Black population 12+ 814,000
2002 Black Population 12+ 821,000 after census
2006 Summer 818,000

in any case, the 1990 Census showed 1,230,000 Blacks in the LA MSA and the 2000 Census showed 1,245,000.




Just based on the above post which shows numbers from 2000 and the numbers you quoted, there is a difference of 400k. Those L.A. schools are just as bad as ever! If you had followed the comments from the beginning, you would realize that the comparison would have to include the 1980 census numbers. But if your figures are correct, you already made my point of loss of black population.

Huh?

My numbers are plainly labeled. Did you not notice the "12+" in the Arbitron-based data?

The total LA Black population in 2000, to use one dataset, was 1,245,000 ("Total" means everybody, from birth onwards) .

Arbitron only uses 12+ population, which was 814,000 in the same year. The difference is that Arbitron uses 12+, excluding 0 to 12 year old persons.

I used the 1990 0+ population to compare with the 2000 0+ population because at home I do not have access to Arbitron data for 1990.

The total Black population has been around 1.25 milliion for 26 years, going back to the 1980 Census. The 12+ has been around 820 thousand for 15 years.

There is no loss of Black population in LA. The group is statisitcally flat (meaning that any differences are within the margin of error of a full census, and not meaningful), while other segments are growing.