With Maimi losing its smooth jazz station on Chirstmas mourning how safe is KTWV

[SJFAN]

Maimi got a big surprise Christmas mourning by losing its herritage SJ staion. Many were surprised. Could "The Wave(KTWV)" be next?

KKSF San Francisco could bite the dust in 2009? How many more years does The Wave have left?

 

[K6JHU]

I am not sure that KTVW can even be callled a "Smooth Jazz" station any more. They have steadily morphed into something other than "Smooth Jazz".

But the list of stations in format trouble in LA reads....
KTWV - Topic of this board
KLSX - Also a current topic
Movin' - Also a perpetual topic
Indie - Speculative change on a reagular basis but probably will not shift
KFWB - Sinking fast especially with the Infomercials
The Sound - Seems to have never gained traction

Add your own to the list. Or speculate who will be first to fall.

But the question is what format can any of those stations go to if they flip that would be successfull.

 

[jrplbg]

I think KLSX will flip before The Wave.

 

[emailfailed]

As for the CBS stations it would behoove CBS to move one of their newsers to FM, probably to, if ratings are any indication, KLSX; KFWB has much higher ratings than KLSX (yes, not as much as they should or could, but the old News 98 still brings in a fair bit of money for CBS).

Now as has been pointed out on this board in markets where news has moved to FM their ratings nearly double and the ever oh-so important demos' dropped to a younger crowd.

If CBS decides to explore moving news to FM the question is then, which one?

KFWB's to-the-point news, or KNX's long-form news?

Then what of the "moved" AM station? Talk? Where? On KNX's Torrance 50kw stick or KFWB's downtown 5kw stick?

It is the belief of this person at the keyboard on the otherside of the e-wall there is a growing need for an newser on FM in L.A. and if CBS doesn't act they're going to lose their monopoly on the news format.

 

[westfield60]

I agree with jrplbg that KLSX will likely flip soon. The signs are already out there.

1 - A few months ago Tim Conway talked about leaving radio and moving out of state. I think he got early notice of what was coming down the line
2 - FHF were only renewed for one year at a hefty pay cut
3 - Weekends are now reruns of Carolla, FHF and Leykis
4 - Howard Stern said that CBS radio wants to turn KLSX into a music station but the roadblock was the contracts of the personalities there right now.

It'll take a few months to figure out how to settle the contract issue but after that KLSX talk will be history. I will miss Leykis and hope he finds another outlet soon.

 

[RadioFanBoy]

I'm sure I've mentioned this somewhere before, but if 'The Wave' wasn't successful in CBS' eyes, KNX would have moved to 94.7 months back, and the Wave's playlist would have shifted to the HD-2 signal.

 

[radioprofessor]

Miami became the 6th major market to get rid of their Smooth Jazz format due to anticipated poor performance in the PPM. With eleven markets in the winners and losers in the PPM are clear. Here is the data over all books all markets with PPM Currency and Pre-Currency in the 25-54 prime demo:

UP

Sports: up 30%
Hot Ac: up 25%
Classic Hits: up 15%
Country: up 15%
AC: up 10%

Down:

Smooth Jazz: down 25%
Urban AC: down 20%
Rhythmic CHR: down 15%
Hispanic: down 15%
Talk: down 15%
News: down 10%

The other parameter with the PPM is that only one station in a format wins. There is a clear Country winner, sports winner and the competing station in the market disappears. Makes you wonder what changes could be in store for LA? All of this in a bad economy. 2009 will see the biggest shift in the radio business since the emergence of FM in the late 70's, in my humble view.

 

[davideduardo]

Miami became the 6th major market to get rid of their Smooth Jazz format due to anticipated poor performance in the PPM. With eleven markets in the winners and losers in the PPM are clear. Here is the data over all books all markets with PPM Currency and Pre-Currency in the 25-54 prime demo:

UP

Sports: up 30%
Hot Ac: up 25%
Classic Hits: up 15%
Country: up 15%
AC: up 10%

Down:

Smooth Jazz: down 25%
Urban AC: down 20%
Rhythmic CHR: down 15%
Hispanic: down 15%
Talk: down 15%
News: down 10%

The other parameter with the PPM is that only one station in a format wins. There is a clear Country winner, sports winner and the competing station in the market disappears. Makes you wonder what changes could be in store for LA? All of this in a bad economy. 2009 will see the biggest shift in the radio business since the emergence of FM in the late 70's, in my humble view.

Those figures look like they came mostly from old or pre-currency data.

LA had an average of 33 Spanish language 25-54 shares in the last 4 diary books. In PPM, the last three books have averaged 32.5 shares.
Houston had an average of 19 Spanish shares in the last diary books. It's almost 22 shares today.

Chicago is similar, and SF (statistically identical), too. Dallas is nearly identical, wobbles aside. Only NY, where there are huge sample issues based on demos and geography, is a problem.

So, at least in one example, the share decline is not evident and there may be increases in some markets.
I am only counting all Spanish language stations; "Hispanic" in LA would include KIIS and KPWR among others, as over half of the cume of each is Hispanic. It's best to specifiy "Spanish Language" here.

LA and every market will have stations that are at the top and at the bottom. The bottom ones will change, the top ones will defend. The Sound and Movin are the current issues. KTWV and KLSX are dependent on revenues in a recession and perhaps can't afford to change. All AMs beyond KFI are challenged, but mostly on demos, not measurement. So I don't see any significant changes beyond the normal ebb and flow of all markets.

 

[radioprofessor]

The numbers I quoted are an aggregate of all data since the start of the PPM, both precurrency and currency in the 25-54 demographic. There are a couple of fine reports on 12+ data as well. Agreed that pre-currency, Houston and Philly data weigh heavily since there is more of it. Each market will have differences, of course, but on balance these are your 25-54 winners. It can be a bit deceptive. In LA there are only two or three full market AC stations so their PPM increase is more apparent. I am not sure how many Spanish Language signals were counted, but the change would be muted. ( You are correct in semantics with Spanish Language, should also add sports numbers include baseball, football and basketball game broadcasts) In broad strokes we can see that AC, HOT-AC, CHR and Classic Hits are doing quite well in LA PPM.

The decline on the AM dial in 25-54 is universal and nationwide. 6+ is strong, but 25-54 is in trouble. The oddity in PPM is that 9% of your audience delivers 80% of your AQH compared to diary where 25% deliver 75%. That means demo tightening. Stations are hyper performing in their strength. For AM that unfortunately means 55+. For Smooth Jazz it appears to mean extinction.

 

[davideduardo]

The numbers I quoted are an aggregate of all data since the start of the PPM, both precurrency and currency in the 25-54 demographic. There are a couple of fine reports on 12+ data as well. Agreed that pre-currency, Houston and Philly data weigh heavily since there is more of it.

No market had more thann 2 months of precurrency data. Some had "test data" such as Philadelphia and Houstong, but it reflected incomplete or non-proportional panels as Arbitron tried (generally with little success) to get the discreet cells and subsets to be proportional. LA alone had one month of "test" data, and the others only had two pre's and then a currency release.

I am only looking at the last few months, which may be a combination of precurrency and currency or all currency. I don't think it is safe to look much further back, and even today I am very skeptical on anything drilled down too deep, whether it be a demo or a daypart.

Each market will have differences, of course, but on balance these are your 25-54 winners. It can be a bit deceptive. In LA there are only two or three full market AC stations so their PPM increase is more apparent. I am not sure how many Spanish Language signals were counted, but the change would be muted.

The number of signals is not relevant; it's the sum of all the shares that creates the sub-universe. In each case, I took the pre-PPM stations in Maximiser (to catch any with 0.1 or more shares) and then the shares in PPM, where anything with a 0.1 or more was added via making a combo. In all markets save New York, the Spanish language shares are virtually identical or higher, not 15% lower; Houston, Dallas, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, SF, SJ. In Riverside/San Berdoo, they are quite a bit higher, in fact.

( You are correct in semantics with Spanish Language, should also add sports numbers include baseball, football and basketball game broadcasts)

Generally, any Spanish sports play by play is on a Spanish station; there is no measurable audience for Spanish broadcasts of American football or basketball and nearly none for baseball... soccer gets it all via KLYY in LA.

In broad strokes we can see that AC, HOT-AC, CHR and Classic Hits are doing quite well in LA PPM.

I'd go further... broad appeal formats do better, as they have a higher cume ceiling, while ultra-niche ones hit the cume barrier fast, and can't get the necessary cume to make up for the more precise and lower TSL per incident the PPM shows.

The decline on the AM dial in 25-54 is universal and nationwide. 6+ is strong, but 25-54 is in trouble. The oddity in PPM is that 9% of your audience delivers 80% of your AQH compared to diary where 25% deliver 75%.

In the PPM, it's 50% of cume delivers 92% of AQH. In the diary, it was around 36% delivering about 72% of the AQH.

That means demo tightening. Stations are hyper performing in their strength.

In some cases, that means not demos by age but appeal of a format. A very narrow age appeal will have limited cume potential, as will a broader one with little cume available (Urban AC a good example here in LA).

For AM that unfortunately means 55+. For Smooth Jazz it appears to mean extinction.

News / talk has successfully moved to FM in numerous markets, including DC which is now PPM, and improved the 25-54 delivery. I see the PPM forcing this even faster, with the new sports format on KLLI, now KRLD-FM, being an example. But that requires each signficant AM to have an FM available for simulcast or a full move.

I would not like to be at WGN or KGO these days...

 

[radioprofessor]

Disagree on some of your key points, agree on others:

Agree:
AM spoken word will migrate to FM which improves in office listening and younger demos. Premise remains AM will have a tough time.
Broad appeal formats do better in PPM
Sports does better in PPM, but not necessarily Spanish Language sports broadcasts.

Disagree:
There is significant national data data precurrency and currency to provide some insight. It is not all suspect
The number of signals is relevant. In some markets format changes have taken place so there are fewer voices in a genre.
9% super p-1 deliver 80% of AQH in PPM. 25% delivers 75% in Diary. You mistake cume and p-1 core that drives cume/AQH. Two different things
Tightening of demos just means more of your cume is in a specific cell in PPM when compared to diary. (back to the super p-1 discussion)

You may want to look at R@R from two weeks ago. Their analysis, while 12+, is fairly similar in broad strokes to what I set forth. It also shows decline in hispanic, urban, smooth jazz, talk etc. Seems the decline is even beyond 25-54. That study was done by Nielson. Overall I find your points well thought out, we are just talking different parameters: LA vs National data and p-1 versus cume.

 

[davideduardo]

Sports does better in PPM, but not necessarily Spanish Language sports broadcasts.

Soccer does better in Spanish laguage broadcasts, all non-Hispanic appeal sports (baseball, American football, basketball) do worse. Since soccer is often on a station not regularly used, it likely never made it to the diary as there was no memory of the station identity. Other sports may have done better when listeners to a regular format rounded listening and it overlapped an undesirable baseball or similar broadcast.

There is significant national data data precurrency and currency to provide some insight. It is not all suspect

Overall the individual cells, like 18-24, 25-34 wobble like mad, due to panel changes where just one household can double an LA station's share (see KSSE two months ago). And when you get to Spanish Dominant Females 25-34, you are talking about 7 or 8 meters for a very important ad demo.

The number of signals is relevant. In some markets format changes have taken place so there are fewer voices in a genre.

But, in the specific case of Spanish langauge (and the 20 or so formats and variants common in the US) the total listening never varies with stations coming and going and hasn't for 20 or 30 years as the major Hispanic markets got relatively good coverage of the broader formats. LA has about 20 signals (some simulcasts) in the PPM rankers... so the sum of all of them will be a constant within a methodology over the short term.

9% super p-1 deliver 80% of AQH in PPM.

I don't know what you are calling "super P1's" as the Arbitron data has no info other than for P1s, not types of P1. There is a report in the upcoming PD Advantage equivalent for PPM that shows the percentage of AQH for any given percent of cume. I've played with a demo, and there is nowhere that such a small concentration yields so much AQHl... in fact, the PPM equivalent of 100 QH diaries is nearly non-existent.

The real point is that the cume growth is deceptive. Half the cume is useless, most totally unrecognized by the panelist and the rest reccognized but coincidental and not decided on by the panelist.

The official Arbitron statement, made at several consecutive PPM consultant fly-ins is 50% yield 92% of QH listening.

25% delivers 75% in Diary. You mistake cume and p-1 core that drives cume/AQH. Two different things
Tightening of demos just means more of your cume is in a specific cell in PPM when compared to diary. (back to the super p-1 discussion)

Arbitron has always stated that, depending on market, 32% to 36% of a station cume yields 72% to 75% of AQH listening. Arbitron, and nobody else I know, has ever defined "Super p1's" and been able to quantify them for the diary.

P1's are simply those who listen to one station more than any other. But listening levels vary, and one person may listen 5 hours a week and another for 60 hours.

You may want to look at R@R from two weeks ago. Their analysis, while 12+, is fairly similar in broad strokes to what I set forth. It also shows decline in hispanic, urban, smooth jazz, talk etc. Seems the decline is even beyond 25-54. That study was done by Nielson. Overall I find your points well thought out, we are just talking different parameters: LA vs National data and p-1 versus cume.

I have not read R&R for years, so I can not see the article. However, I have the actual data for all but a couple of the PPM markets, and can do my own calculations. I've also been on Arbitron "ad hoc groups" since Philly started to look at the process of building the PPM system.

I've looked at Hispanic/Spanish Language in every significant PPM market (that means "not Philly") and there is no evidence of erosion... in fact, there is either stability or growth in every market but NYC. This fact would make me question the entire study.

And, again, I am looking at many national markets, not just LA. And I don't find the conclusions you refer to to be accurate. In fact, the diary 25% figure contradicts every bit of information ever released by Arbitron. Have a chat with Dr. Ed, with whom I have had numerous conversations on this very topic.

 

[radioprofessor]

Not sure how to respond. Your information is incorrect. A number of seminars and articles you can check on the subject. I attended at arbitron seminar on Urban Radio and PPM. The Super P-1 or primary p-1 was the main focus. Several otherP-1 articles available by arbitron, Nielson, Coleman, DMR, Edison, Paragon and others. I respect your opinion but all evidence is to the contrary. Hispanic is declining and primary P-1 is critical to success and more so in the PPM for all formats From my seminar notes:

For over a decade the radio industry has focused on P1, or first preference, listeners—those who listen
most to a station. In the Diary world, a rule-of-thumb says that P1s represent 33% of a radio station’s
cume and 70% of its Average Quarter-Hour (AQH) audience. The importance of P1s continues in the
PPM world. In fact, P1s may have more importance with PPM because they represent a smaller portion of
a station’s cume, yet contribute over two-thirds of a station’s Average Quarter-Hour
audience. (9% equals over 2/3)
The PPM also demonstrates that all P1s are not created equal. Passive electronic measurement and
tracking consumers over time combine to provide new insights into which P1s matter most and how P1
loyalty impacts stations. In particular, consumers who are highly loyal to their P1 station and are heavy
users of radio are the most important listeners to a station. We call these listeners “Prime P1s.” Cementing
“Prime P1” loyalty is a key component of a station’s performance in the ratings. Growth potential comes
from increasing time spent among the "Best Prospects," those P1s who are heavy radio users but exhibit
less loyalty to their P1 station than Prime P1s.

 

[davideduardo]

Not sure how to respond. Your information is incorrect. A number of seminars and articles you can check on the subject. I attended at arbitron seminar on Urban Radio and PPM. The Super P-1 or primary p-1 was the main focus.

The "super P1" sounds like a consultant's invention. I know from having gone through the Coleman study step by step with Jon in LA 6 or 7 weeks ago that there are, as determined by "exit" research done on panelists IN THE TEST PERIOD of the PPM cumers who either had no clue that they had listened to a station or knew they listened, but not much (neither would appear in a diary). And P1's can be divided into loyalists and fickle P1's (we know from a panel that P1 status is not permanent).

But Arbitron's current software does not allow any kind of breakout of "kinds" of P1...this is a finding or conclusion based on secondary research done on past, but inactive, panelists.

Several otherP-1 articles available by arbitron, Nielson, Coleman, DMR, Edison, Paragon and others. I respect your opinion but all evidence is to the contrary. Hispanic is declining and primary P-1 is critical to success and more so in the PPM for all formats From my seminar notes:

Nielsen has not been in the PPM world for several years, and they do not have access to the data except via someone passing it on; Nielsen has never measured radio via a panel and meters, anywhere.

Arbitron has not classified P1s to any extent... we always knew via diary reviews that they came in many flavors, but to suggest we concentrate on, what, 9% is absurd as it invalidates our advertisers' use of reach and frequency.

And, as I said, the panel is imperfect still... Arbitron has a goal inside a goal and the subsets and discreet demos are erratic. I mentioned KSSE in LA doubling in share... actually, it moved up more than double in 18-34 several months ago, and this was doue to a single replacement household. With this in mind (and the lack of MRC accreditation also on the table) to form too many PPM conclusions right now is dangerousl

In any case, if you look at the major Hispanic markets, the shares in the sales demos... 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54, are the same as the diary or, in a couple of cases, greater than that of the diary when only pre-currency and currency data is looked at (no market has more than two pre-currency books, prior to going currency... anything prior is "test data" and does not represent a full and mature panel)

For over a decade the radio industry has focused on P1, or first preference, listeners—those who listen
most to a station. In the Diary world, a rule-of-thumb says that P1s represent 33% of a radio station’s
cume and 70% of its Average Quarter-Hour (AQH) audience.

First you said it was 25%. I said it was in the mid-30-percent range for 72% to 75% of the AQH listening, depending on market and competitive array. Now you are closer, but the real figures are mid-30's to yield lower 70-percent AQH delivery. It's been that way for as long as we could see Maximiser and similar data.

As to the percentages in PPM, Arbitron's John Snyder had this to say at the first PPM focused Consultant Fly-In at Columbia:

"Half the cume contributes 92.5% of AQH… the others are of no AQH value, and drag down TSL and other metrics."

"There are two kinds of listeners, those who are engaged with the station and those who are useless. "

And, maybe some people in the industry focused only on P1's, but I focused on actual usage... very often a P1 was only such based on a few quarter hours, and there were one or two other stations with near identical diary quarter hours. After 38 years of diary reviews in three cities, I learned that the concept of the P1 is more statistical than real. There are many P2's and P3's that are more useful than some of the light P1's.

The importance of P1s continues in the
PPM world. In fact, P1s may have more importance with PPM because they represent a smaller portion of
a station’s cume, yet contribute over two-thirds of a station’s Average Quarter-Hour
audience. (9% equals over 2/3)

If half the listeners contribute less than 8%, how can your 9% contribute 66%? that leaves the remaining 41% contributing only 25%... the math does not work.

Half the cume is neither addressable nore useful. It delivers about 8% to 9% of all listening. The rest is all fair game, as only via a panel we know that P1 status is volatile and listeners are fickle and vastly less loyal than we thought ´previously.

[/quote]The PPM also demonstrates that all P1s are not created equal.[/quote]

They never were, as a diary review or a few hundred would have proven in the past. There are all kinds of P1's, but the PPM does not allow us to see respondent level data, while the diary did (it's a product of methodology... we can't see respondents because they may still be on the panel). So any conclusions on the panel will come from the extraction of data and post-panel interviews like the Coleman study.

Passive electronic measurement and
tracking consumers over time combine to provide new insights into which P1s matter most and how P1
loyalty impacts stations. In particular, consumers who are highly loyal to their P1 station and are heavy
users of radio are the most important listeners to a station.

They always have been. The problem is that we can only identify the attitudes and likes and behaviours of this group by doing our own research among heavy users... hey, isn't that what we do when we recruit for a music test or a perceptual for our morning show. Hmm... nothing new so far.

We call these listeners “Prime P1s.” Cementing
“Prime P1” loyalty is a key component of a station’s performance in the ratings. Growth potential comes
from increasing time spent among the "Best Prospects," those P1s who are heavy radio users but exhibit
less loyalty to their P1 station than Prime P1s.

That's just a theory. My experience is that increasing P2 usage, or that of lighter P1's is generally useful while trying to squeeze more quarter hours out of an ultra P1 who already is maxed out is quite near impossible. This has been shown to work, but I'm sure other programmers have other techniques, and many will turn out to be format specific.

There is no key to the PPM, no single answer. Just as in the diary, low TSL and high cume, average TSL and Cume or high TSL and lower cume will all work if skillfully managed.

 

[radioprofessor]

You guessed correctly that I am a consultant. I rarely respond to the LA board, since I live here, but have always found your comments insightful. In the area of P-1 data we can agree to disagree. This is not Coleman exit view information but data pulled from arbitron and run through a math calculation. In the PPM Super P-1 (some use prime or hyper) is another math calculation with arbitrion PPM data. Too boring to go through here. Suffice it is say, in my humble opinion, that somewhere between 8-12% of your audience will deliver somewhere between 66-90% of your AQH in the PPM. Bank on it! I used an average of the most current data in my earlier post. I tend to disagree with 90% figure and believe 66% is too low. Nielson actually did a study of Arbitron PPM data, which is what I referred to. We could go back and forth for ages...let's just agree to disagree.

On the winners and losers in PPM versus diary, my 25-54 information is statistical fact. If you want more public 12+ data which backs up my conclusions refer to the R@R article from the arbitron research director. (Nov 28, pg 15). It also shows severe decline in hispanic audience in the broad demos when compared to diary. In tight demos it is even more pronounced.

Again, we can agree to disagree. I do respect your posts and the thinking that goes into them, refreshing and articulate, in my humble view!

 

[davideduardo]

On the winners and losers in PPM versus diary, my 25-54 information is statistical fact. If you want more public 12+ data which backs up my conclusions refer to the R@R article from the arbitron research director. (Nov 28, pg 15). It also shows severe decline in hispanic audience in the broad demos when compared to diary. In tight demos it is even more pronounced.

Actually, it is not. Let's look at the last couple of books under the diary method, looking for a median, not an average. And then the most recent three months of PPM data that is currency or pre-currency but not test data, and sticking to 25-54 since I don't trust any PPM analysis on anything more narrow.

LA.
Diary 33.3 shares
PPM 32.6 shares.

Dallas
PPM 21.1
Diary 20.5 (I went back 4 books, removed one as historically way out of range)

Houston (a year and a half between end of diary and most recent 3 PPM's)
PPM 21.8 2008
Diary 22.8 2006/7

Chicago
PPM 12.8
Diary 14.3

San Francisco
PPM 12.3
Diary 13.1

New York
PPM 12.9
Diary 14.1

Riverside
PPM 25.1
Diary 22.4

This is so close in all cases that it would be very difficult to say that there is really any difference. Given that the biggest issue of PPM is in 18-34, and the US Hispanic population's average age is around 21 to 22, most variances can be tracked to the very ugly 18-24 cell in PPM, which is the same one that caused the situation I described in a previous post: KSSE more than doubled it’s share in 18-34, going from a 2.7 in the September week 4 and a 2.9 for all four weeks of September to a 6.6 in October Week 1 and a 7.1 in October Week 2... all apparently in 18-24 and all "pourged" upon investigation.

The variances in Spanish language are so small... in fact, the PPM to diary differences are less than the range differences between diary trimesters and, of course, between individual months in the PPM. Were I to create a table of high and low range for each, there would be little difference between the highs and lows of either method for 25-54 Hispanics, particularly if weeks and extraps are added in.

If you go to 18-49, several of the markets show actual growth, although there is still a range issue that does nothing if not to point out that all the numbers are within the margin of error and the PPM, unlike predictions to the contrary, wobbles like a drunken banshee the narrower you slice the data due to the paucacity of meters.

I did not include DC, as the shares are dependent on one FM alone for most of the total, so changes may be program related. Similarly, Atlanta, where total Spanish shares increased radically, we are talking of only two significant stations from one company, so it's not appropriate to base a methodology discussion on two stations that had just changed PD prior to the PPM start. And Philly does not have enough Spanish dominant Hispanics to be significant... less than 2% of the total population (which is why they did the Houston test.)

 

[AM FM listener]

Whoa. A real clash of the (radio) titans on this thread. No numbers from me; however, I shall offer my format predictions:

KTWV will stay the course for 2009. I like DE's argument that they can't afford to change just yet.
KLSX will switch to All News, KNX-FM, simulcasting the AM. They need the lower demos; can't afford not to change.
KFWB will switch to Spanish language News/Talk/Sports.
KMVN will switch to a pop-leaning CHR, musically in between KIIS and KBIG.
Indie will switch to Spanish language CHR, simulcasting KSSE.
The Sound will evolve into a more mainstream Rock to pick up more cume.

 

[ChannelFlipper]

On the winners and losers in PPM versus diary, my 25-54 information is statistical fact. If you want more public 12+ data which backs up my conclusions refer to the R@R article from the arbitron research director. (Nov 28, pg 15). It also shows severe decline in hispanic audience in the broad demos when compared to diary. In tight demos it is even more pronounced.

Actually, it is not. Let's look at the last couple of books under the diary method, looking for a median, not an average. And then the most recent three months of PPM data that is currency or pre-currency but not test data, and sticking to 25-54 since I don't trust any PPM analysis on anything more narrow.

LA.
Diary 33.3 shares
PPM 32.6 shares.

Dallas
PPM 21.1
Diary 20.5 (I went back 4 books, removed one as historically way out of range)

Houston (a year and a half between end of diary and most recent 3 PPM's)
PPM 21.8 2008
Diary 22.8 2006/7

Chicago
PPM 12.8
Diary 14.3

San Francisco
PPM 12.3
Diary 13.1

New York
PPM 12.9
Diary 14.1

Riverside
PPM 25.1
Diary 22.4

This is so close in all cases that it would be very difficult to say that there is really any difference. Given that the biggest issue of PPM is in 18-34, and the US Hispanic population's average age is around 21 to 22, most variances can be tracked to the very ugly 18-24 cell in PPM, which is the same one that caused the situation I described in a previous post: KSSE more than doubled it’s share in 18-34, going from a 2.7 in the September week 4 and a 2.9 for all four weeks of September to a 6.6 in October Week 1 and a 7.1 in October Week 2... all apparently in 18-24 and all "pourged" upon investigation.

The variances in Spanish language are so small... in fact, the PPM to diary differences are less than the range differences between diary trimesters and, of course, between individual months in the PPM. Were I to create a table of high and low range for each, there would be little difference between the highs and lows of either method for 25-54 Hispanics, particularly if weeks and extraps are added in.

If you go to 18-49, several of the markets show actual growth, although there is still a range issue that does nothing if not to point out that all the numbers are within the margin of error and the PPM, unlike predictions to the contrary, wobbles like a drunken banshee the narrower you slice the data due to the paucacity of meters.

I did not include DC, as the shares are dependent on one FM alone for most of the total, so changes may be program related. Similarly, Atlanta, where total Spanish shares increased radically, we are talking of only two significant stations from one company, so it's not appropriate to base a methodology discussion on two stations that had just changed PD prior to the PPM start. And Philly does not have enough Spanish dominant Hispanics to be significant... less than 2% of the total population (which is why they did the Houston test.)

So David, since all of the data you point to show an insignificant difference between Spanish language diary vs PPM shares, I am sure you would agree with me that all of these legal challenges in New York is essentially a waste of time, propegated by race-baiters that really don't know what they're talking about when it comes to radio listening measurements.

 

[RadioFanBoy]

KTWV will stay the course for 2009. I like DE's argument that they can't afford to change just yet.

I agree.

KLSX will switch to All News, KNX-FM, simulcasting the AM. They need the lower demos; can't afford not to change.

I don't know that CBS has the same confidance in KNX as they do say KCBS-AM. I do agree that the contracts with the weekday shows is the only thing keeping the company's last FM talker afloat. I think KNX will stay where it is for now on the FM side.

KFWB will switch to Spanish language News/Talk/Sports.

With what?? I suppose they could add on CNN En Espanol, but who is there on the talk side they could bring on board. And everything on the sports side is already taken by other L.A. outlets. An uphill and very costly start-up any way you look at it. Not in this economy.


KMVN will switch to a pop-leaning CHR, musically in between KIIS and KBIG.

Hasn't it already??


Indie will switch to Spanish language CHR, simulcasting KSSE.

Yep.....this is the year that Indie goes away! Just like last year.....and the year before that, and the year before that and.....

The Sound will evolve into a more mainstream Rock to pick up more cume.

Possibly.

 

[SuperRadioFan]

The Sound will evolve into a more mainstream Rock to pick up more cume.

Can you give a few examples of what you mean by "mainstream"? If you mean classic rock-similar like KLOS they've done that and their #s did not improve. Now they have cut back somewhat on the classic rock cuts and are playing a few more AAA-type tracks and some lesser heard classic rock but they still play too few currents (when compared with other big city stations in the genre like KINK-FM, WXRT, and now even KPRI!!) and also too few female singer/songwriters/rockers.

If The Sound "evolves" in the direction you are predicting they are going to be even more boring and safe if that's possible!

Happy New Year!! 8)