Re: I'm also wondering?
Mr.Eduardo, I do respect your background and achievements in the broadcast industry. But between the debate with you and Fred, has me wondering about radio's fate today. Yes , you seem to be good in backing up your facts, but statistics is one thing, and reality on the streets is another. I know in this world today, as far as the media and the government, you wonder who to believe.
---->>>> Try the facts. There is data using the same basic methodology on radio listening using Arbitron going back to 1965. So if there was an erosion of listedning in the demos that are important to radio, then we could spot it.
You and me had a recent debate about the music industry, and when I seem to notice something, you come out the opposite direction.
---->>>> Refresh my memory. I don't remember that one.
Advertising for instance... I live in a top 25 market intertwined with a top 5 market and I noticed advertisers and commercial quality that now buys time on top 10 stations that use to get only as far as late evening, or Larry King overnight. Even the old sponsors Wolfman Jack had when he ran on tape from Mexico. Back in the 70's 80's it was 95% agency. I don't know if you noticed ,but you tell me. Lots of corny Hair, Home Business, Mystery shopper etc. like the Time Lifes on cable channels after 1 am. Is it me who just notices?
---->>>> Overnight advertising, whether in the 60's or today, has been a combination of a few attempts at revenue producing shows (Dolly Holliday for Holliday Inns in the early 60's and Art Bel et. al today.) but for th emost part, except for a couple of the clear channels, no station ever made money on Midnight to 5 AM. Remember, most stations stay on the air so the transmitter is verified as running just as morning drive starts.
Air shifts cut , no more all-nights, half the weekends are VT or live. And the full timers running shifts like 9-4, 4-11:30, Board op, and morning drive 5:30-9. You get the pucture. What ever happened to 6-10, 10-2, 2-6 etc. and in major markets.
--->>>> We all went with Arbitron dayparts for consistency. 6-10, 10-3, 3-7, 7-12. Overnights produce scant listening and no revenue, so voice tracking or a board op is a good alternative. Weekend evenings have nearly no listeners, so this is a good place for specialty shows, often syndicated. There are many exceptions... the stations I am with in LA are all live 24/7 but that is an individual decision. I still remember 1-14-94 at 4:41 AM, when our live jock on KHJ had the mike open during the Northridge quake and was the only voice in Spanish on the air 60 seconds later and for the next 6 hours.
---->>>> However, even in NY or LA or Chicago, it was never 95% agency. Lots of local and direct, including most of the car dealers, etc. Today, the hair remedies and re-fi accounts come from agencies, by the way. The US has changed, and there are a lot more product categories that like radio.
We had a discussion on music. Yes the world has been broken into charts. Like 50 of them , and me or the average person might scan around at least at one time 10 stations of varied pop/rock/ R&B music. Now I'm down to maybe 4 of them. And the current playlist sounds the same practically as it did from 2-3 months ago. Very tightly. even the songs I'll glance at whether it's CHR or Hot AC charts, i don't hear many of them played on terrestrial , and if I hear most, it's on XM. (It has gotten alittle better ) it was worse in the mid to late 90's and the millennium. Instead of a full mainstream audience that would rate them based on the programming and sales, now stations have to please advertisers and advertisers only because they got the clear channels by the throat, because they paid too much for their stations, which leads to the next subject of runaway listeners. They need there way of advertising desperately. Target only this and that.
---->>>> Radio began tight specialization when FM was forced to stop simulcasting in 1967. Since then, formats have split. CHR immediately split into CHR, AC and AOR, for example. This has continued as more stations came into each market, especially those outside the top 5.
---->>>> Very few cases of overpayment exist. Nearly every station bought during early consolidations (1996 and on) is worth much more today. And since most were bought with mergers and stock swaps, there is practically no debt.
---->>>> Playlists are a function of what listeners want. With so much specialization, the weekly 3 adds on a Top 40 in the 60's became 1 add each at the CHR, the AOR and the AC. The miusic business does not sell more due to fragmentation of radio. It just has each song played only on the stations that it fits. So there are probably more adds today than ever, but they are spread over several dozen formats, not just one or two main ones.
Anybody I know or a stranger I might talk too, owns a IPOD, MP3s or some type of gadget and doesn't listen to the radio primarily. Maybe a morning show, but anybody like todays teenagers cruisin the street with the thump and boom effect I know it's not coming from the FM band. It's not Wolfman Jack. People I do get in discussions with when it comes to entertainment all tell me that they listen less and less to FM. Yes their are exceptions where you have KOIT or KCBS in the doctor's or insurance office. But there's alot of DMX, Music Choice, and other backgrounds going on. In 1974 or even recent as 1984, it would've been at aleast 90% FM.
---->>>> TV was going to kill radio. And the 45. And the cassette. And cable and the CD. And so on . Personal music devices have coexisted with radio since the Victrola that plyed 78's.
---->>>> The change in 25-54 cume of radio since 1975 is less than 1%. It is way off in teens, and way off in 55+, because radio has no interest in either group as there are no ad buys to be had for that audience.
Any way I can't go by statistics because every type of reports or statistic ratings seems to have a backlash like real estate, economy, jobs, and even the price of gas. You explain the price of gas where they shut down a part of the pipeline because of corrosion. You think the price would go up, no it's gone down. Now this situation might effect us in November, but it's like the price of the house, especially in today's economy, You never know what the real price is until you can sell it.
--->>>> Radio revenues are up this year, probably between 2% and 3% only, but up. Lots of posts say listening is way off and advertisers are leaving. They are not. LA will hit $1.1 billion in billing this year, for example.
You mention a heritage station like KGO declining in revenue, and needs to convert to FM. Lately alot of talk radio has stifled, especially in the Bay area. Or I can say that people in the Bay area are no longer supporting the liberal party that KGO has promoted like they use to. Just like Air America, even though it's still number 1, it's declining. It should convert to FM to surviveor bebuild,... Yes I agree, but you are now agreeing that AM is dying. But advertising is up? Things are better then ever? I don't think anybody is sure or knows what's going on, until it hits like an asteroid.
--->>>> AM revenues are down in nearly every market. FM is up. It seems like ther eis slow growth, but FM is being dragged dwon in the averages by AM.
--->>>> Two years ago, for the first time since the '50's, radio broke into the 8% share of all ad revenue. That is not a symptom of a dead business. Are there threats? Yeah, but the Highway HiFi was a threat, too (the 16 rpm record player in mid-50's Chrysler cars) and radio survived.
