Radio Is Dead? Really? What are we really saying?

[davideduardo]

There are 243 plus million people who have been within range of hearing a radio, usually as background noise. It a gross exaggeration to call them "listeners". When my furnace or air conditioner kicks in, I can hear the sound of the fan that's blowing air. That doesn't mean I'm an HVAC "listener".

First, only 48 markets are measured by PPM which will detect "accidental" listening. The other 200 markets and all the counties in the national survey that are not part of a measured metro are diary measured. Accidental listening does not get reported in the diary. And in the PPM, the amount of "only listening by accident" is minimal as a granular examination of the data will show.

 

[davideduardo]

We have something we found to add to the conversation:



Read More Here then come back and discuss why you agree or disagree with these findings...

The article does make one major error which is to look at OTA radio as the "only" radio and the streaming radio services as something else. It also mixes audio only with TV and video.

"Morgan Stanley conducted a survey of just over 2,000 American adults and 86% of the respondents said they use AM/FM radio. YouTube was second among those surveyed at 62%, Pandora 33%, TV music channels 27% and iHeartRadio at 19%."


Another issue is that they cite "radio" in the opening of the article, but then refer to music through the rest of it. That ignores the spoken word formats of any kind as well as the mostly-talk morning shows, etc.

It really appears that the study shows where people go for music. And even in that context, radio does extremely well. And it does even better if we acknowledge that streaming is a form of radio.

 

[landtuna]

TSL is about 12 hours. What research can you point to to dispute the RAB? I am positive the RAB paints as lovely a picture it can. I'd love to know of alternatives to this.

Google RAB and take a look.

For so long we have questioned ratings but as flawed as they may or may not be, they are the only source and so many hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising hinge on those statistics.

I did look through RAB's data - and I don't believe it.

Are you saying TSL is 12 hours daily, weekly, monthly, annually or what? You have to be specific. It makes a huge difference.

Common sense tells me most people are like me - they listen, sort of, in the car and they might listen, sort of, at home. In other places such as work it is nothing but background noise. I used to listen all day long when working just to keep the nearby cubicle conversations out of my mind. I could ignore the radio much easier than my next door cube mate.

I have two cars. The radio is always on in one and never on in the other (library instead). When another person is in the car with the radio on it is also background noise. Usually turned so low that it isn't a distraction to the driver or passenger. When I am driving the radio is also background noise. I am driving and paying attention to what I am doing and not to the guy on the radio hawking a product I won't buy. The only time I pay full attention to the radio is when traffic or news come on.

The radio is very seldom on at home and, if on at all, is streaming an out of market station since my market doesn't offer music I like. It is again, background noise while working on the computer. I can't remember the last time my AM/FM/stereo receiver was used for radio.

The days when there was someone interesting to listen to on the radio are long gone. I have a very small MP3 player which has an FM radio. The radio is never used. It holds several hundred of my favorite songs so if I am in the mood I simply clip that little device to my shirt, plug in the earbuds and enjoy. No reception issues, no blabbermouth DJ, no commercials.

Common sense, and ratings, tell me the only viable audience that music radio has these days are the commuters.

 

[landtuna]

The average time spent listening per week is around 12 hours. That contemplates light listeners and heavy listeners all bundled together. For every 1 hour a week listener, there is a 30 hour a week one.

Both the cume numbers you gave as well as the TSL might be good statistical indicators but they are almost worthless from an advertising point of view. It doesn't matter how many millions of people I reach if their listening is only 15 minutes per week. Statistically, they will not even hear my ad even if they were to be among the desired demo.

And TSL of 12 hours per week I would believe only on those stations airing baseball, not on the average music station. According to the U.S. Census the average commute time (one way) is just a tick over 25 minutes or slightly less than one hour per day. If that person had the radio on during the trip AND WAS PAYING ATTENTION he/she would come close to 10 hours per work week. Other than those people the only others coming to mind are night watchmen who might also rack up 10-12 hours per week listening. They are not likely to be in anyone's desired demo.

To effectively summarize radio advertising you need to analyze significant individual campaigns and find out how specific advertising affected consumer's buys or didn't. Listening alone won't show you that.

 

[TheBigA]

You don't believe in subconscious listening, do you?

 

[b-turner]

TSL is 12 hours weekly. That is all radio listening. A person might listen to several different stations.

I'm not the creator of the info. You should question the source, not me.

Again, if you think it is hogwash, what is your basis? Where is your research to substantiate your opinion? I'd love to see other data.

I'd consider the research fairly valid if there is no research to show differently. In a sense, there may lie the problem.

For example, if I were an investor what can you show me that says something different. And, as my owner used to say "how does that make me money?".

 

[Avid Listener]

I did look through RAB's data - and I don't believe it.

Are you saying TSL is 12 hours daily, weekly, monthly, annually or what? You have to be specific. It makes a huge difference.

Common sense tells me most people are like me - they listen, sort of, in the car and they might listen, sort of, at home. In other places such as work it is nothing but background noise. I used to listen all day long when working just to keep the nearby cubicle conversations out of my mind. I could ignore the radio much easier than my next door cube mate.

There you go, citing "common sense". You should know that concept is foreign to the suits who run radio.

 

[b-turner]

All hail Avid Listener, the only one who knows radio. When will you be the spokesman for Men's Warehouse?

 

[davideduardo]

Both the cume numbers you gave as well as the TSL might be good statistical indicators but they are almost worthless from an advertising point of view. It doesn't matter how many millions of people I reach if their listening is only 15 minutes per week. Statistically, they will not even hear my ad even if they were to be among the desired demo.

And TSL of 12 hours per week I would believe only on those stations airing baseball, not on the average music station. According to the U.S. Census the average commute time (one way) is just a tick over 25 minutes or slightly less than one hour per day. If that person had the radio on during the trip AND WAS PAYING ATTENTION he/she would come close to 10 hours per work week. Other than those people the only others coming to mind are night watchmen who might also rack up 10-12 hours per week listening. They are not likely to be in anyone's desired demo.

To effectively summarize radio advertising you need to analyze significant individual campaigns and find out how specific advertising affected consumer's buys or didn't. Listening alone won't show you that.

Two thirds of radio listening is not in the car. Never has been much different.

Ad buys are based on AQH persons, not come or TSL.

Music stations generally have the highest TSL.

A night watchman who is between 25 and 54 is in most of the sales demos. demo based buys are mostly by age and gender, not profession.

Advertisers buy impressions, not "engagement".

 

[Avid Listener]

All hail Avid Listener, the only one who knows radio. When will you be the spokesman for Men's Warehouse?

Actually, most people who actually "know radio" are working in television, movies, music production, or some other field. Those who started out in radio and saw how it was being run made the wise decision to get out while the getting was good, and find a better career elsewhere.

 

[Kelly A]

Actually, most people who actually "know radio" are working in television, movies, music production, or some other field. Those who started out in radio and saw how it was being run made the wise decision to get out while the getting was good, and find a better career elsewhere.

What?? You've made some bizarre statements Avid, but this one takes the cake. Can you name some examples or statistics of "most people" who have left radio to work in other fields? I work in all of the above, but it doesn't mean I moved into other broadcasting or production sides of the media business because of being disgruntled with the radio business. In fact, I know many colleagues or people I've worked with over the years who, like me, started in radio and added other parts of media and broadcasting, not replacing radio by any means.

 

[landtuna]

You don't believe in subconscious listening, do you?

Sure. I tell my wife that all the time.

 

[davideduardo]

Are you saying TSL is 12 hours daily, weekly, monthly, annually or what? You have to be specific. It makes a huge difference.

Common sense tells me most people are like me - they listen, sort of, in the car and they might listen, sort of, at home. In other places such as work it is nothing but background noise. I used to listen all day long when working just to keep the nearby cubicle conversations out of my mind. I could ignore the radio much easier than my next door cube mate.

Almost all Nielsen data is based on weekly totals. A PPM "book" covers a month, but is really the average of 4 discreet weeks. The cume is average weekly cume, the AQH is average weekly AQH. Share and rating (which are just the same as AQH using different metrics) are "average week". In the diary, instead of 4 weeds the average is based on 12 weeks. But, again, the data is based on an average weeks.

The days when there was someone interesting to listen to on the radio are long gone.

That is likely because radio stations can't afford to serve 70-year-olds. There is no payback.

Common sense, and ratings, tell me the only viable audience that music radio has these days are the commuters.

Maybe your sense tells you that, but it is not true. Only 1/3 of all radio time spent listening is in the car, with the other two thirds taking place at home and at work.

Interestingly, AMs which are mostly talk now, have an average of 40% of their listening in the car, and much less at home and at work. While the "indoors" listening may be reduced because of the high levels of AM interference in todays homes and workplaces, the fact is that more music listening is at home and at work than in the car... in part because people only spend a finite amount of time in the car each day while at home and at work listening can cover many more hours. That's common sense.

 

[davideduardo]

Actually, most people who actually "know radio" are working in television, movies, music production, or some other field. Those who started out in radio and saw how it was being run made the wise decision to get out while the getting was good, and find a better career elsewhere.

I've worked in several markets that are major radio, tv and music centers such as Buenos Aires, San Juan, Miami, Mexico City and Los Angeles.

The few radio people from the creative side I see "go to " TV continue to also do radio unless they are among the most successful.

I have not seen more than two or three people in the last 50 years cross over to music, and all came back to radio. A good example is Scott Shannon, who spent the disco years with Neil Bogart at Casablanca and then went back to radio and is now at the top doing mornings at WCBS-FM. And I have never seen anyone from radio go to music production... the few I have seen went into promotion or artist management.

As to movies, all of the 5 markets I mentioned are major movie or video production centers. I am trying hard to think of anyone from the creative side of radio who has moved entirely over to that side. Quite a few people I know have had parts in movies or done voiceovers for animated pictures, but these things are generally done to supplement their incomes, and not to replace radio jobs.

In sales, we do see lots of people crossing between radio and TV, but it's a two-way street where as many come to radio from tv as go there.

Again, an Avid Listener post that can never, ever be supported by facts.

 

[TheBigA]

Actually, most people who actually "know radio" are working in television, movies, music production, or some other field.

You have an example?

 

[landtuna]

That is likely because radio stations can't afford to serve 70-year-olds. There is no payback.

What makes you think "interesting talk" is age-based? My tastes haven't changed much in the past half-century. It's just no longer on the radio.

Maybe your sense tells you that, but it is not true. Only 1/3 of all radio time spent listening is in the car, with the other two thirds taking place at home and at work.

You already have my opinion of "listening" at work - throwaway time. Based upon my extended family there is no listening at home. Perhaps there are some people who listen to the radio at home - when the clock radio goes off in the morning - but not for long. When they walk in the door in the evening it's the TV that gets the nod.

Interestingly, AMs which are mostly talk now, have an average of 40% of their listening in the car, and much less at home and at work. While the "indoors" listening may be reduced because of the high levels of AM interference in todays homes and workplaces, the fact is that more music listening is at home and at work than in the car... in part because people only spend a finite amount of time in the car each day while at home and at work listening can cover many more hours. That's common sense.

Common sense tells me that when the alarm clock (might be radio) goes off they jump out of bed and into the shower. The radio is still playing but they can't hear it over the running water. Might grab a couple of snatches while shaving but then it's dress and race downstairs, slam down breakfast, kiss the kids goodbye and head for the door. The radio upstairs is still on but nobody's home. He jumps in the car and pays attention to the news on his 25.3 minutes commuting to work. Once at his desk our hero flips on his desktop, tunes in his favorite radio station, stuffs his earbuds in and gets to work.....oops, as soon as his staff meeting is over. 2 hours later he returns to his desk and gets credited with 2 hours listening although he hasn't heard a word. He puts his earbuds back in just in time for the phone to interrupt - whoops, another 30 minutes shot. Phone call over and his best buddy stops by the cube to shoot the breeze about last night's game. Wow, that could have been worse. Now it's time for lunch. 1 1/2 hours later back at desk. Radio is still playing but still he hasn't heard a note. The afternoon goes quickly what with questions from subordinates, new assignments from the boss and a coffee break or two. Earbuds are all but forgotten. Finally time to head for home. Once again into the car for the 25.3 minute ride home with traffic and news (much of which he heard this morning). Walks through the front door to see kids in front of the TV and wife hovering over the stove. Looks through day's mail. Catches up on kids activities. Listens to wife's day. Eats dinner. Helps clean up kitchen. Retires to couch to watch.......TV shows. No radio in sight.

There you have it. A day in the life of Mr. Radio Listener. 50-odd minutes of news, traffic and weather punctuated by humorous banter and endless commercials. After the first five-minute ad blast he drifts off thinking of his upcoming vacation and hoping the wife isn't pregnant again.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the kids are finally out the door complete with iPods listening to their personal mp3's and Mrs. Listener has switched the TV from cartoons to the first of several women's shows she watches every day. The only radio in the house, old trusty clock radio, has done its duty and goes back to sleep awaiting the next workday morning.

Statistically: 25 minutes AMD actually listening, sort of. 1 hour AM clock radio but no one listening. 9 hours "at work listening" but not exactly. 25 minutes PMD actually listening, sort of.

 

[TheBigA]

There you have it. A day in the life of Mr. Radio Listener.

Simple question: Do you or anyone you know carry a PPM?

If not, your radio habits aren't being measured, and all you're giving us is anecdotal experience. Thousands of people are measured for the numbers that Nielsen reports. Not just one family. The thousands of people are all over the country, and represent different financial, racial, and educational groups. Your story represents one house.

 

[davideduardo]

There you have it. A day in the life of Mr. Radio Listener. 50-odd minutes of news, traffic and weather punctuated by humorous banter and endless commercials. After the first five-minute ad blast he drifts off thinking of his upcoming vacation and hoping the wife isn't pregnant again.

And that is exactly what the PPM also shows. Lots of listening in "kibbles and bits" or segments of 10 to 20 minutes. Throughout the morning. During work or household chore time. During the weekend. The stations that win are the ones that get the listener to pick them most of the time.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the kids are finally out the door complete with iPods listening to their personal mp3's

iPods are so yesterday. Most people have smartphones that play MP3s and also get all kinds of radio stations and pureplays via streaming. An increasing number have FM radios built in.

and Mrs. Listener has switched the TV from cartoons to the first of several women's shows she watches every day.

Not all women stay at home, and far from all watch women's shows on tv. Many listen to the radio at work, in the car and while doing things in the home.

The only radio in the house, old trusty clock radio, has done its duty and goes back to sleep awaiting the next workday morning.

Around 70% of Americans have a portable radio they carry with them almost everywhere and which they have bought in the last 2 to 3 years... it's called a smartphone.

Advertisers look for impressions. Even background listening creates impressions.

 

[GregWilliamsLighthouse]

If a genre of music and entertainment is not being provided by terrestrial radio, and one believes there is a market for such, as evident by online conversations, forums and Facebook activities, would it be fruitless folly to attempt breaking into the business of podcasting, with a mindset of reinventing radio?

 

[davideduardo]

If a genre of music and entertainment is not being provided by terrestrial radio, and one believes there is a market for such, as evident by online conversations, forums and Facebook activities, would it be fruitless folly to attempt breaking into the business of podcasting, with a mindset of reinventing radio?

What is the business model?

Assuming you have a valid concept, can it be duplicated by a Pandora or other customizable pureplay personal channel?

If it is "popular" and the DCMA costs mount, where is the revenue coming from?