Big bang: The coming upheaval in local TV

[mvcg66b3r]

Great number of TV stations could stop broadcasting over the air

Many stations may choose to switch to airing on cable. Cord-cutters will be forced to subscribe to catch the local news. Other stations may go to streaming.

For media buyers, it could well mean fewer options and higher TV ad pricing, and that in turn could lead to shifts in ad spending to competing local media, such as radio, local cable, out of home and, of course, digital.

It’s sure to have a huge impact on Hispanic television, perhaps leading to a shakeup in its ownership ranks and a severe winnowing of players that could play out over years.

http://www.medialifemagazine.com/big-bang-the-coming-upheaval-in-local-tv/

 

[joebtsflk1]

The incentive auction, I think, will have a huge impact on OTA TV. Just look what's happened to the CBC's OTA coverage. They've shut down a number of full-power repeaters in mostly rural areas because cable and satellite penetration was high enough that the CBC couldn't (or wouldn't) justify their continued existence.

I think that the top 50 markets might continue to have four to five commercial OTA transmitters post-auction. Markets 50 to 100, three or four. 100 plus, probably no more than three. Some of the statewide PBS networks may choose to prune transmitters where there is considerable overlap of signals.

 

[mississippi fan]

I am a little weary of the article. I'll just wait and see what happens.l

 

[MMVRBfan]

That ATSC 3.0 broadcasting standard being pushed isn't going to help either. I'm wondering how many 'big 4' network stations will be selling off for good or relocate. This is the calm before the storm, folks. Just wait a minute--wait a minute...you ain't seen nothin' yet!

 

[landtuna]

Local news would be among the least of the reasons I would subscribe to cable (again). There are so many other options - one being the very old fashioned newspaper - that TV brings almost nothing to the party. One thing I see attracting a significant number of viewers is live sports. They will subscribe to something, not necessarily cable as we know it, for their sports fix but perhaps nothing else.

 

[joebtsflk1]

Local TV news is largely a wasteland. Live sports events will likely be the one of the things that will keep local OTA TV alive, but lesser OTA signals will be going away in the auction, even if stations receive only half of the FCC's overly optimistic valuations.

 

[joebtsflk1]

Local TV news is largely a wasteland. Markets 50+ will be hard pressed to support three truly independent TV newsrooms. 100+..maybe two. Live sports will help keep some OTA TV around, but it's inevitable that many of the minor net stations will cash out...only time will tell.

 

[LKellerIII]

I rarely watch local TV news anymore. I get my news fix from NPR during my morning and afternoon commutes, and I supplement it during the day and evenings with news web sites. As far as I'm concerned, local TV news has become as irrelevant as newspapers.

 

[Darth_vader]

About the only thing keeping broadcast TV alive for me any more is ME and maybe Antenna. And occasionally OPB when I am in dire enough need of some other state's propaganda. You know, if those things go, well, okay, whatever. The main network affiliates, including whatever Pax is calling itself this month, are next to worthless.

And even at that, you can only watch "I love Lucy" or series 10 of "New Tricks" over so many times before it gets stale and repetitive.

As far as I'm concerned, local TV has become as irrelevant as broadcast radio.

 

[ShawnHill1]

In my opinion, what's also not helping local TV (hell, you can say this about linear TV as a whole) is just lack of variety in regards to programming schedules. Look across the programming schedules of your local Fox, CW, MyTV, or independent station (if you have one in your area), daytime is a glut of court shows, gossipy talk shows (like Wendy Williams and The Real), your garden variety trash talk (Maury, Jerry, Steve and the like), 5-6 hours of local news (a lot of which is fluff), and hours of infomercials. I'll probably sound like an old fogey at 35, but I can remember there was a lot variety in TV stations' schedules, it was pretty much the same format across the boards--kids shows in the mornings, a combination of talk shows, sitcoms, drama, and local news in the middays, more of the same and maybe an early afternoon movie, more kids shows late afternoons, sitcoms and/or drama reruns in early evenings (and not two back-to-back episodes of the same series either), and primetime may have offered something different each night--movies, sporting events, documentary specials, first-run series, etc.

I admit that I don't watch a lot of local TV like I used to, just the reasoning I just stated--lack of variety. I'll watch subchannel networks like Antenna TV, Me-TV, Buzzr, and sometimes Cozi and Decades, but I can probably count on one hand the number of series I watch on a regular basis on network TV. Everything else...I just watch online at my own time and leisure.

 

[K.M. Richards]

I admit that I don't watch a lot of local TV like I used to, just the reasoning I just stated--lack of variety. I'll watch subchannel networks like Antenna TV, Me-TV, Buzzr, and sometimes Cozi and Decades, but I can probably count on one hand the number of series I watch on a regular basis on network TV. Everything else...I just watch online at my own time and leisure.

I second that reaction. I checked my TiVo's "to do" list and here are the programs it has "season passes" to:
Mannix (Heroes & Icons, KCOP/13.4)
Hill Street Blues (H&I)
Quantum Leap (Cozi, KNBC/4.2)
Judy Garland (GetTV, KFTR/46.2)
The Man From U.N.C.L.E. (MeTV, KDOC/56.3)
Match Game (Buzzr, KCOP/13.2)
Simon & Simon (Cozi)
Empty Nest (Laff, KABC/7.3)

I also was TiVoing the late-night kinescope reruns on Buzzr, until they all started repeating (meaning I must have seen all of them, unless Fremantle is holding back some), as well as Carol Burnett on MeTV, Doctor Who on Retro (KFLA/8.3), My Favorite Martian on Cozi, Newhart on Antenna (KTLA/5.2) and the Bob Newhart Show on MeTV. All of those were dropped when they hit the recycle point as well.

I also sometimes put Burns & Allen and Jack Benny (both on Antenna) on "season pass" for a while, even though I've seen them all, because they're just so damned funny I want to rewatch them every so often. I'll put Mission: Impossible back on when MeTV decides to bring it back, as they have periodically. And if I'm just punching around randomly, I'll usually stop at Alfred Hitchcock Presents if I find it; I'll also sit through a Dragnet rerun on Cozi if I see one.

The lone "big network" shows I TiVo:
Meet The Press (NBC, KNBC/4.1)
Heroes Reborn (NBC)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (CW, KTLA/5.1)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

I watched The Muppets (ABC) for the first few weeks then lost interest. It's rather boring, IMHO.

So ... yeah, I'd rather watch reruns of shows I've seen before, decades ago, than the stuff that passes for today's network offerings. I'm getting old.

 

[LKellerIII]

My tastes are different than KMs, but the one thing we have in common is that traditional OTA stations (Big 4 network affiliates, O&Os and local OTA independent stations)- are becoming mostly irrelevant.

I DVR practically everything so I can watch at convenient times and skip commercials. Most of my viewing time is with basic cable and premium cable series - I'm currently watching The Leftovers (HBO), Walking Dead (AMC), The Knick (HBO-GO), Fargo (FX), Homeland (Showtime).

The only shows I watch on regular TV are The Good Wife, 60 Minutes and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (all CBS)

I live in a bad reception neighborhood, so if/when I eventually "cut-the-cord," I will just stream these shows. They are all available online and thru apps. I would have to pay for some, but I doubt it would be as high as much as my monthly DirecTV bill - about $120.

 

[K.M. Richards]

I would have to pay for some, but I doubt it would be as high as much as my monthly DirecTV bill - about $120.

When I shut off my DirecTV, it was costing me about $65/month, but I had no premium channels and had downgraded to a tier without my regional sports channels because of the Dodgers/Time Warner Cable fiasco. But the concept is the same as Llew's.

I'm a little skeptical that the diginets will survive the repacking process, presuming it takes place (that NAB study that was released yesterday makes me think relatively few stations will decide to participate in the spectrum auction, because the costs will be too high to make the extra revenue worth it ... and that study makes it pretty clear that the FCC has set a timeline that is far too optimistic, given the availability of consulting engineers, new transmitters, antennas, tower crews, and the like). What I'd love to see would be someone putting all the diginets on free-to-air (or minimal monthly charge) satellite transmission, separate from DirecTV and Dish. I'd subscribe to that, and I suspect the diginets would go for it to get the added viewership.

BTW, back to the NAB study: I am of the opinion, given all that I mentioned parenthetically, that in the major markets there will be very few takers other than ION, some marginal (financially) independents, and most -- if not all -- the LPTVs. And those are the areas where the wireless providers are coveting the spectrum most. I wonder what the FCC will do if/when I'm right, since they can't force a station to participate in the auction.

 

[joebtsflk1]

. .

 

[joebtsflk1]

When I shut off my DirecTV, it was costing me about $65/month, but I had no premium channels and had downgraded to a tier without my regional sports channels because of the Dodgers/Time Warner Cable fiasco. But the concept is the same as Llew's.

I'm a little skeptical that the diginets will survive the repacking process, presuming it takes place (that NAB study that was released yesterday makes me think relatively few stations will decide to participate in the spectrum auction, because the costs will be too high to make the extra revenue worth it ... and that study makes it pretty clear that the FCC has set a timeline that is far too optimistic, given the availability of consulting engineers, new transmitters, antennas, tower crews, and the like). What I'd love to see would be someone putting all the diginets on free-to-air (or minimal monthly charge) satellite transmission, separate from DirecTV and Dish. I'd subscribe to that, and I suspect the diginets would go for it to get the added viewership.

BTW, back to the NAB study: I am of the opinion, given all that I mentioned parenthetically, that in the major markets there will be very few takers other than ION, some marginal (financially) independents, and most -- if not all -- the LPTVs. And those are the areas where the wireless providers are coveting the spectrum most. I wonder what the FCC will do if/when I'm right, since they can't force a station to participate in the auction.

I can't remember if I posted about this tangent earlier, but there's another problem with the incentive auction that I don't know has been addressed. What seems to be missing is a "horse trading" function where stations could merge between markets. Here's one scenario: Iowa Public Television has two stations in the Cedar Rapids/Waterloo market. KRIN-32 Waterloo broadcasts from the general antenna farm between Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. KIIN-12 Iowa City has a 1500' tower about 10 miles east of Iowa City. KIIN was just the second PBS station in the state, and was designed to cover Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and most of the Quad Cities. In the last ten years, KQIN-36 Davenport was established. The map is a little had to read, it's on this page: http://site.iptv.org/about
1. IPTV could choose to auction KIIN-12 outright. 2. Auction KRIN-32 Waterloo, move KIIN-12 to KRIN's spot at the market's antenna farm(would need a DA to protect 12 at Mankato MN) 3. Auction both KRIN-32 and KQIN-36, let KIIN-12 carry both markets.

So what happens when one license goes to auction and another license needs to make a transmitter shift? Does the current freeze stay in effect during the auction?

 

[K.M. Richards]

So what happens when one license goes to auction and another license needs to make a transmitter shift? Does the current freeze stay in effect during the auction?

I sincerely doubt the FCC has considered a scenario such as the one you describe. Given that they had no plan, I suppose the licensee would need to request a waiver, or condition the sale of whatever was auctioned on FCC approval to make such a move.

Maybe Kelly or Jeff has a thought here?

 

[joebtsflk1]

Oh, oh...I think I opened a can o'worms. If there were such horse-trading allowed, I'm sure there may be many other such scenarios and maybe there would be increased participation in the auction. And more work for Doug Vernier and his minions. And an even longer time-frame for the auction.

It might be cheaper to just launch a new satellite and put all the OTA signals on it, in the clear. Then cellular can just have the whole friggin' band. But that wouldn't be nearly as much fun...

 

[K.M. Richards]

Oh, oh...I think I opened a can o'worms.

Open worm cans tend to make for more interesting discussions.

 

[tripinva]

I'm a little skeptical that the diginets will survive the repacking process, presuming it takes place (that NAB study that was released yesterday makes me think relatively few stations will decide to participate in the spectrum auction, because the costs will be too high to make the extra revenue worth it ... and that study makes it pretty clear that the FCC has set a timeline that is far too optimistic, given the availability of consulting engineers, new transmitters, antennas, tower crews, and the like). [...]

BTW, back to the NAB study: I am of the opinion, given all that I mentioned parenthetically, that in the major markets there will be very few takers other than ION, some marginal (financially) independents, and most -- if not all -- the LPTVs. And those are the areas where the wireless providers are coveting the spectrum most. I wonder what the FCC will do if/when I'm right, since they can't force a station to participate in the auction.

We'll just have to wait and see. I'm not sure your logic follows anyway; the whole point is that stations which are bought out don't have to be moved/rebuilt, so all of those costs/timelines should, ideally, get better if more stations participate and are bought. Saying that fewer stations will participate because the costs of moving are too high makes no sense; stations which get bought out won't have costs of moving.

I can't remember if I posted about this tangent earlier, but there's another problem with the incentive auction that I don't know has been addressed. What seems to be missing is a "horse trading" function where stations could merge between markets. [...]
1. IPTV could choose to auction KIIN-12 outright. 2. Auction KRIN-32 Waterloo, move KIIN-12 to KRIN's spot at the market's antenna farm(would need a DA to protect 12 at Mankato MN) 3. Auction both KRIN-32 and KQIN-36, let KIIN-12 carry both markets.

So what happens when one license goes to auction and another license needs to make a transmitter shift? Does the current freeze stay in effect during the auction?

That can't happen. The auction assumes stations are staying where they are. To allow them to move would make the system so complicated that it would never work. Post-auction they can try to relocate, but no guarantees.

I sincerely doubt the FCC has considered a scenario such as the one you describe. Given that they had no plan, I suppose the licensee would need to request a waiver, or condition the sale of whatever was auctioned on FCC approval to make such a move.

There is no option to condition a bid in the auction in that way. If you are channel sharing, you are saying that you will accept the coverage of one or the other and only that coverage. You can try to expand afterwards, but no guarantees.

- Trip

 

[joebtsflk1]

Thanks, Trip...figured you'd have the definitive word on the subject. Had such moves/adjustments been available like I described, it would have been a full employment act for tech consultants/station brokers/etc. And really gummed up the process.

I'll keep my other "fantasy football" scenarios on this subject to myself. (wonder if we'll see fantasy football ads on this weekend...hmm, new topic)