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ESPN has investors really worried

There are 7 college football games on OTA TV today, nationally or regionally, out of 32 being televised:

Do you notice the rankings of the teams on the OTA channels? From what I can see, the top ranked teams or teams with big fan bases (Notre Dame) are on OTA.
 
Do you notice the rankings of the teams on the OTA channels? From what I can see, the top ranked teams or teams with big fan bases (Notre Dame) are on OTA.

#1 Clemson is on ESPN, but they're playing arch-rival/doormat South Carolina -- not a top game outside that state, but it has playoff implications regardless. CBS almost always airs Alabama-Auburn. Ohio State-Michigan & USC-UCLA have been on ABC almost every year since the 1960s, ranked or not.

And Notre Dame is Notre Dame. Its game with Stanford is part of the Pac-12 package on Fox this year, while ESPN airs the more important Florida State-Florida game. Both games should do well.
 
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It's game with Stanford is part of the Pac-12 package on Fox this year, while ESPN airs the more important Florida State-Florida game. Both games should do well.

My point is there is a lot of competition for major games. That competition is bad for ratings and subscriptions.
 
Do you notice the rankings of the teams on the OTA channels? From what I can see, the top ranked teams or teams with big fan bases (Notre Dame) are on OTA.

Today is the traditional rivalry game weekend so viewing will most probably be higher than on a normal weekend.
 


They are all available if you know where to look.

I meant legally. ;)

The ACC games used to air on KTVK 3.2, but once Meredith took over that station, those games went away. DirecTV still doesn't have the Pac-12 Network, and FSN Arizona only airs a few of the games offered to them; the Louisiana Tech game is on FSNAZ+, not the main channel, at least on DirecTV.
 


Everything I do is legal.

But what the streamers you are watching are doing is not. I assume you're referring to the dozens of largely East European or Caribbean-based websites that carry every known sporting event. Or are there really 100 percent legal (on both ends) methods to see all those games without paying for cable or satellite? If so, please let me know. I'm tired of clicking on the tiny x's and dodging the malware downloads. Oops. Or should I say I WOULD be tired of that if I were a regular user of those sites...
 
But what the streamers you are watching are doing is not. I assume you're referring to the dozens of largely East European or Caribbean-based websites that carry every known sporting event. Or are there really 100 percent legal (on both ends) methods to see all those games without paying for cable or satellite? If so, please let me know. I'm tired of clicking on the tiny x's and dodging the malware downloads. Oops. Or should I say I WOULD be tired of that if I were a regular user of those sites...

I don't have any inside information as to the contractual agreements between the streamers and the various sports franchises. But I do not use sites that originate in Eastern Europe (mainly because those are almost always in native language with questionable PQ) or those that originate in the Caribbean. The ones I use have been on-air for multiple years now and all of them display a takedown address should they encroach upon someone's license. Interestingly, there are very few instances where the takedown happens and I am absolutely positive the broadcasters (content owners) know these various services exist and would take them down if they felt infringed. I also do not use tunneling or VPN to access any of these services so everything is in the clear. It is legal for me to access these websites.

I also use torrenting to download programs, mainly for my wife. But before all of you jump my case please consider that the programs in question have all been broadcast in the clear in my market so I am time-shifting rather than stealing. It is little different than using a DVR to record a show off-air and watch it several days later. And I expect someone will say that watching a program without commercials is stealing from the content producer. So let me ask you this - is what I am doing any different than fast-forwarding the DVR or getting up to make a sandwich during a commercial? I didn't think so.

And the fact that due to age no one gives a crap what I watch and doesn't include me in their statistics so I affect nothing. I am therefore, invisible.
 
if ESPN ever goes the HBO now route, that will be a game changer

The public won't pay what would be required to keep the necessary revenue stream flowing. That has nothing to do with profit margins -- it has everything to do with the rights fees that we actually pay for directly from our subscriber fees, whether or not we actually watch any of the games. Less subscribers = higher prices per subscriber. The rights fees are set by the content owners, aka the leagues/conferences.
 
The rights fees are set by the content owners, aka the leagues/conferences.

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the rights fees are negotiated between the content owners and broadcasters? AFAIK it isn't a one-sided deal. Although sometimes both parties are one in the same.
 
Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the rights fees are negotiated between the content owners and broadcasters?

It would be a negotiation if it's just one broadcaster, or if the broadcasters work together. But when you have four different broadcasters all wanting the same rights, it's pretty much the highest bidder wins. Not much negotiation there.
 
You're comparing two different things. Netflix and Hulu are the modern version of Blockbuster. At one time Blockbuster was doing great. And truthfully, people aren't watching "better" programming on Hulu or Netflix. In most cases, it's the SAME programming, just using a different platform.

What is helping Netflix and hurting the networks are shows like House of Cards and Orange Is The New Black. People are going for the original programming over the top and ditching broadcast. Sure sports have a built in audience but as more cable networks become available online the cord cutting will continue. And unless broadcast can get edgier programming, something the FCC will not allow they will continue to slowly die.
 
And unless broadcast can get edgier programming, something the FCC will not allow they will continue to slowly die.

Not sure about that. The TV networks are transitioning their programming to the same type of platform as Netflix, so it just becomes another revenue stream. It's not a one-or-the other thing.
 
Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the rights fees are negotiated between the content owners and broadcasters? AFAIK it isn't a one-sided deal. Although sometimes both parties are one in the same.

The Thursday night 8-game NFL package is available after this season. The league wants big bucks for it -- the current figure is $600M, which is double what CBS paid for this season's 8 games. It won't go any lower, and there will be little negotiation if any. All four networks are interested, and if CBS doesn't want to pay up for some reason (I think they will), and if ESPN can't due to current financial issues, NBC or Fox certainly will. And the winner will bend over and pay whatever the NFL finally decides is the rights fee, after a bidding war if more than one network wants it.
 
ESPN will be fine. The employees may not be. Eventually that may go more the streaming subscription route, but I suspect the cable companies will keep that from happening for a longer period of time than one might think.
 
ESPN will be fine. The employees may not be. Eventually that may go more the streaming subscription route, but I suspect the cable companies will keep that from happening for a longer period of time than one might think.

The real question in all of this is will there be an adjustment to pro sports rights fees, and how will the various leagues deal with that? They already own their own cable channels and do a lot of their own streaming, but I doubt its as profitable as getting a multi-million dollar payment from ESPN.
 
The Thursday night 8-game NFL package is available after this season. The league wants big bucks for it -- the current figure is $600M, which is double what CBS paid for this season's 8 games. It won't go any lower, and there will be little negotiation if any. All four networks are interested, and if CBS doesn't want to pay up for some reason (I think they will), and if ESPN can't due to current financial issues, NBC or Fox certainly will. And the winner will bend over and pay whatever the NFL finally decides is the rights fee, after a bidding war if more than one network wants it.

The NFL is also said to be throwing a percentage of NFL network into the deal. And the rumor is that this contract will run until 2022 in line with all of the other rights deals.
 
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