2016 Media Predictions

[mvcg66b3r]

What stations, if any, might be the ones most likely to go dark due to repacking or a duopoly situation in 2016 (similar to instances in recent years in central Nebraska with KHAS, Birmingham, Charleston, etc.)?

This was just announced, although it has more to do with the incumbent affiliate not reaching a new deal with the network.

WKPT's affiliation with ABC coming to an end
http://www.timesnews.net/Business/2...-ABC-coming-to-an-end.html?ci=stream&lp=3&p=1

Media General announces ABC affiliation in Tri-Cities DMA
http://wjhl.com/2016/01/04/media-general-announces-abc-affiliation-in-tri-cities-dma/

More on this thread: http://www.radiodiscussions.com/sho...es-to-air-on-WJHL-Feb-1&p=6081637#post6081637

 

[NoDakObserver]

Verizon FiOS is doing it in a limited fashion by offering packages of channels based on type of programming, not tiers.

For example, you can eliminate all the sports channels.

I've always thought package or genre a-la-carte would be more doable than single channel. Group all sports channels together in a couple packages. A Basic one with ESPN, ESPN2, your RSN, maybe Fox Sports 1 and NBC Sports, then an expanded one with all the others. Repeat for the kid's channels, "music" channels, news channels, women's channels, etc. The general entertainment channels (TBS, USA, TNT) would still be together under Basic Cable and Expanded Cable packages, but the more specialized channels you could pick and choose from. You should also have a cheap Broadcast Basic package for the people that just want local channels and any cable access channels because they can't get them over the air very well.

 

[Tim from Springfield IL]

What stations, if any, might be the ones most likely to go dark due to repacking or a duopoly situation in 2016 (similar to instances in recent years in central Nebraska with KHAS, Birmingham, Charleston, etc.)?

Answering my own question, but we could get an example of this in the eastern half of my local DMA: WEIU-51.1 (RF 50) Charleston, IL (PBS, operated by Eastern Illinois University) is considering selling its spectrum:

http://eiupresident.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/y/399F62FDDC55D689/F09BE0C9D397AF7174AF8F7A76570606

 

[KeithE4]

Answering my own question, but we could get an example of this in the eastern half of my local DMA: WEIU-51.1 (RF 50) Charleston, IL (PBS, operated by Eastern Illinois University) is considering selling its spectrum:

http://eiupresident.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/y/399F62FDDC55D689/F09BE0C9D397AF7174AF8F7A76570606

WILL-TV couldn't fill that void, maybe on a subchannel with a translator in Charleston? Charleston and Champaign are only about 50 miles apart.

 

[mvcg66b3r]

What stations, if any, might be the ones most likely to go dark due to repacking or a duopoly situation in 2016 (similar to instances in recent years in central Nebraska with KHAS, Birmingham, Charleston, etc.)?

Come to think of it, here's a thread I created in October about what might happen in Champaign-Decatur-Springfield:

PURE SPECULATION: OTA shakeup in Central Illinois!
http://www.radiodiscussions.com/sho...E-SPECULATION-OTA-shakeup-in-Central-Illinois!

 

[umfan]

Michigan State University is considering selling WKAR's spectrum and becoming an online only station. I do believe that the spectrum auction will come in far less than what has been projected and some stations will decide they have better business potential remaining as television stations. Particularly since AT&T and Verizon are sitting out the auction.

 

[tripinva]

Particularly since AT&T and Verizon are sitting out the auction.

???

http://www.androidheadlines.com/201...bid-in-the-incentive-auction-set-for-jan.html

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story...more-interested-high-band-spectrum/2015-10-20

It's Sprint who's sitting out the auction.

- Trip

 

[FreddyE1977]

I will continue to be assaulted by ads for catheters, erectile dysfunction products, nefarious get rich quick schemes, and shaky reverse mortgages as life in broadcast media sales departments continues to get worse.

 

[vchimpanzee]

You should also have a cheap Broadcast Basic package for the people that just want local channels and any cable access channels because they can't get them over the air very well.

That's what I have. An outdoor antenna might work, but then if I want to record shows on stations that are in two different locations, the antenna has to be turned the right way, Or I'd have to be changing the antenna all the time and wouldn't remember.

 

[Tim from Springfield IL]

I will continue to be assaulted by ads for catheters, erectile dysfunction products, nefarious get rich quick schemes, and shaky reverse mortgages as life in broadcast media sales departments continues to get worse.

All while watching "The Price Is Right."

And maybe during "Jeopardy" too (among other shows)--all while "prizes for 2nd and 3rd place contestants are provided by Aleve."

 

[frankberry]

... And the ambulance-chasing lawyers who advertise "If you have been ... blah, blah, blah" as they attempt to create lawsuits.

 

[FreddyE1977]

Michigan State University is considering selling WKAR's spectrum and becoming an online only station. I do believe that the spectrum auction will come in far less than what has been projected and some stations will decide they have better business potential remaining as television stations. Particularly since AT&T and Verizon are sitting out the auction.

Interesting. I know some MSU alums who will be greatly displeased.

How much could the auction bring in a market like Lansing anyhow?

 

[K.M. Richards]

That's what I have. An outdoor antenna might work, but then if I want to record shows on stations that are in two different locations, the antenna has to be turned the right way, Or I'd have to be changing the antenna all the time and wouldn't remember.

There's the argument in favor of antenna farms.

Here in L.A., the handful of full-power stations that weren't on Mount Wilson in the analog era moved there, meaning that antennas can be pointed there for everything but a few LPTVs.

If all markets were like that, it might be easier on the cord cutters.

 

[vchimpanzee]

There's the argument in favor of antenna farms.

True, but in my case I live between two markets. But if all the stations in each market had their towers in the best position for me, then I wouldn't really have the problem.

 

[frankberry]

Easy solution. Two outdoor antennas and a switch to select which antenna (market) is active.
You could also install one antenna and a rotor.

 

[landtuna]

Easy solution. Two outdoor antennas and a switch to select which antenna (market) is active.
You could also install one antenna and a rotor.

In the analog TV world if you fed your TV from two separate antennas, each pointed different directions, but with only one common cable you might get ghosting depending upon the relative strength of each signal. I did this once and it worked fine since one antenna received a much stronger signal than the other.

What would happen in the digital world with this set up?

 

[frankberry]

Multipath is NOT a friend to digital TV. Slight ghosting that may have been acceptable in the analog days will totally kill digital reception.

 

[vchimpanzee]

Easy solution. Two outdoor antennas and a switch to select which antenna (market) is active.
You could also install one antenna and a rotor.

The rotor would be easy. My grandparents had one. I used to like to play with it as a child. Actually, the problem is remembering to change it when the channel was changed.

Installing two antennas would be kind of expensive, though given what even my basic badsic cable costs now, it would be cheaper. I just don't know where these antennas would go with all the trees.

 

[Markxxx]

The spectrum auction will be a bust. Smaller market stations that need money will be willing to sell, but have no buyers. Big markets will drive up the cost to insane levels causing those who want to buy the spectrum not to be able to.

Very few markets will have a comfort zone where they'll be enough buyers and sellers.

 

[KeithE4]

In the analog TV world if you fed your TV from two separate antennas, each pointed different directions, but with only one common cable you might get ghosting depending upon the relative strength of each signal. I did this once and it worked fine since one antenna received a much stronger signal than the other.

What would happen in the digital world with this set up?

You might lose the signal, since you'd be getting one signal direct and one off the side. Combining the two into one coax cable would essentially be the same as multipath.

Considering that as close as you are to South Mountain (you're still in Tempe, right?), even a slight change in antenna position will help some stations and kill others, since obviously the stations aren't all mounted on the same tower. This is despite the fact that all Phoenix stations will give you a strong RF signal where you are. A rotator might work for you if you don't have one already.

But multipath of any kind -- airplanes, clouds, reflections off other towers or even South Mountain itself -- or overload (especially from the dozen or so 100 kW FM stations) causing false signals within the desired channel's passband, can make stations unviewable. I found that an FM trap was mandatory when I lived 5 miles from the towers, as well as a slight adjustment of my indoor antenna for some channels.