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Future of Streaming

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Yesterday the press reported that Pandora shares were at an all-time low, about 70% below the IPO price.

Traditional radio continues to be very profitable, while the streamers can’t lose money forever. And increasing usage just increases expenses proportionally, so it’s not about getting more users… something that will make them bleed even more!”

Satellite radio lost billions for a decade until there was a merger. That was a major change, particularly when we consider that originally the FCC wanted three or more players in the space.

Some say "radio is dead". And we see that the streaming model can't make money and investors are losing confidence.

If Pandora’s stock is off so much and they are bleeding cash, what’s the future?
 
The issue with streaming is after the initial costs of start up, you have increasing costs for more listeners. When you add Sound Exchange, making money or breaking even goes right out the door. The rates charged are well beyond and existing business model. That is not to mention the difficulty in gaining listeners in quantities that actually are marketable. Time spend listening to a single stream is typically far below time spent listening for over the air radio which further hurts streaming radio. And, in my opinion, the fact the listening device can be used for other purposes than listening to a stream likely contributes to this.

I feel streaming radio, although growing, is still in its infancy. I say that because streamers have not found that business plan that works. Until a successful model can be found and proven successful with listeners, the streamer will never grow up to take it's rightful place.
 
There is a viable business model. Actually, three.

It is subscription, value-add, or listener support.
Subscription works, but only if you aren't bleeding money on "free" users.
Value-add works for Amazon Prime Music, but would be hard to pull off for most others. Exceptions might be the big telecoms (AT&T, Verizon).
Listener support has kept a couple of obscure streams I listen to alive for a number of years now, even after the sound exchange rate increase a couple years ago.

Advertiser support doesn't work because the spot load is too low. When I listen to Pandora, I get 3-4 minutes per hour of ads, mostly for the Home Depot, Stamps.com, Progressive, and other national advertisers who are everywhere.
 
There is a viable business model. Actually, three.

The problem is the vast majority wants free streaming. And they won't accept more advertising. The music industry is working to kill free streaming. The jury is out of the majority who have been using free streaming will convert to subscription if they have no free option. And even if all streaming is by subscription, the music industry is convinced they're not making enough from it. Especially the songwriters, who are getting much less than the performers, and want a 50-50 split.
 
Advertiser support doesn't work because the spot load is too low. When I listen to Pandora, I get 3-4 minutes per hour of ads, mostly for the Home Depot, Stamps.com, Progressive, and other national advertisers who are everywhere.

Another problem is the American idiosyncrasy of using 60" spots almost to the exclusion of all others. In much of the world the 30" spot and even the 15" or 10" spot are more common. A 60" spot today is just too long.

Ad-supported streaming requires a new model of very short spots. Many of the visual webs with ads or popup intros have 10" video commercials.

I think terrestrial radio needs to eliminate the 60" spot entirely. I thinks streams with ads need to consider much shorter spot lengths.

Decades ago, I put another country's first FM on the air. I sold a maximum of 6 20" spots an hour, and priced them at a premium. That station ended up being my most profitable station (out of my 9 in that market). It can be done.
 
David, you make a great point. I found in my copywriting days, I could get the message across in a fraction of the 60 second spot. I had to window dress the spot to reach 60 seconds with the vast majority of the time being unneeded for a straight-forward delivery.

In addition, a package coupled with a sponsor directory could eliminate all the details of an audio spot by directing online listeners to a certain website page.

In a LPFM set up I worked out, we coupled on air 'audio business cards' typically about 8 seconds with website presence in the station business directory where complete information was provided (including what could not be said in Underwriting). The small businesses loved it. We usually did 5 to 8 of these spots an hour. The average hour was 58 minutes of music once you included a couple of community announcements and a forecast.
 
David, you make a great point. I found in my copywriting days, I could get the message across in a fraction of the 60 second spot. I had to window dress the spot to reach 60 seconds with the vast majority of the time being unneeded for a straight-forward delivery.

A friend and personal hero en the business, in a discussion of station promos, said, "there is no such thing as a 60 second promo. A 30 is usually too long. A 15 can say everything you want about a station program, contest or event. If you can't say it in 15 seconds, it is probably too complicated and will be a failure anyway."
 
The :60 is primarily used in older formats like news and talk. I don't see it used much in younger formats like CHR.

I look at the MediaMonitors of stations like KIIS and see way too many 60's.
 
181.fm offers free streaming and does use shorter spots. No idea whatsoever if they are cash flow positive, but they do offer a LOT of formats and apparently support themselves to some degree with ads.
 
Never heard of 181.fm. Will take a look.

I think that brings up an issue for online radio: nobody knows all the choices for listening online. With over the air, you have a limited number of possibilities for listening and those are known. Any online directory is comparable to the Decatur, Illinois phone book to a directory of all the phone numbers in the lower 48 states.

My point being there are so many online listening choices and no infinite directory from which to make those choices (ie: scanning the AM and FM band on a radio), the streaming station typically attracts so few listeners they cannot monetize the small number that find you.

Even if by subscription, the numbers might not be adequate to pay the costs (most likely not) and then there is sampling. You aren't not going to pay for a product you have not heard and know to be what you want to hear. The only way a person may become so loyal as to pay to listen is if they know what they are buying. That means they have to listen 'free', likely for a good while before determining they should subscribe. That sort of defeats the purpose.

Not all listeners will subscribe. Public radio touts 1 in 10 will be members. I think this is a national average, likely centering in on larger cities where public stations are more likely to hire a firm to spearhead or 'consult' their 'fundraisers'. Such firms help with on air pleas and other aspects, provide the follow-up on collections and so on. Their clients tend to do well above average. When you are a public station without such expertise, it might be more reasonable to expect 1 in 15 to become members unless you have been around decades and offer a very well researched format. Remember the rule of thumb is a fundraiser will not be successful until the 2 year mark.

In other words, the 'subscriber' might be 1 in 15 who has a history of about 2 years of 'free' listening in order to be convinced to subscribe. Will that subscriber be willing to pay a rate equal to the sum of time spent listening of 15 listeners and perhaps over time amortize the 2 years free period? If so, of total unique listeners, how many is 1 in 15? How many of that number were 'samplers', being one-time visitors that spent under 5 minutes listening to determine your station is not right for them? As the reader of this post hunting for an online listening choice, how many times do you tune away before you locate the streamer you want to listen to at that point?

Here's a sample: I selected a college streaming only station. Paying attention to programming and the station's top of mind awareness, I chose this station because they utilize the same tactics for profit rated market stations with good ratings utilize. I intentionally wanted a streaming station that could stand on it's own against competitors if on the radio dial for an example. We are talking a college station because the demographic is so tech savvy and heavy users of so called new media. Core Market: about 11,700. Unique listeners in average week (when classes are in session): 515. Average Time Spent Listening per week: 93 minutes. Average listening sessions per week: 3. Breakdown of listeners: 64% are in state (no further breakdown to determine actual in city or on campus listening); 36% listened from other states n the USA or from other countries.

When you run the above numbers, the actual number of listeners truly in the core market desired is under 330 even if every person in the state listening was actually attending this specific college (obviously logic dictates otherwise) and a total listening time each week of a mere 510.88 hours per week. It might be fair to say the number of listeners per quarter hour might be counted on both hands with fingers left over.

If the subscription was applied, 1 in 15 paying to listen, and deducting for the 'sampling' done by one time listeners who sampled once and never came back, this would mean this well programmed and well marketed station (on campus at least) might get you about 20 subscribers at best to share the expense of streaming the station. That figure would not be 'affordable' for what the subscriber gets in return, assuming that figure was breakeven divided by subscribers.

Consider if this station was universally known as an over the air station is in a certain locale, what those numbers could be. For this reason alone, I contend most listeners choose over the air streams of radio stations because that is what they are aware of simply because it is promoted via broadcast radio and other media that has a much larger listener/viewer/reader base.
 
I think that brings up an issue for online radio: nobody knows all the choices for listening online.


Maybe, but they know Pandora, Spotify, and Apple Music. Also YouTube and Amazon Music. Those are pretty well known brands, so most people seem to stick with what they know.
 
That spurs another reality. I failed to point out this college streamer might have so few listening because online listening is not geographically bound like over the air radio. In other words, you can change your location, but you needn't change your listening habits.
 
The problem is the vast majority wants free streaming. And they won't accept more advertising. The music industry is working to kill free streaming. The jury is out of the majority who have been using free streaming will convert to subscription if they have no free option. And even if all streaming is by subscription, the music industry is convinced they're not making enough from it. Especially the songwriters, who are getting much less than the performers, and want a 50-50 split.

I guess they (the songwriters) want to price themselves out of business then. Perhaps they should take a cold, hard look at other media, and how increasing competition from internet offerings is making the pie bigger, but the slices smaller.
 
I guess they (the songwriters) want to price themselves out of business then. Perhaps they should take a cold, hard look at other media, and how increasing competition from internet offerings is making the pie bigger, but the slices smaller.

The music industry basically has a monopoly on music. It's a government licensed monopoly. Anyone who wants to use popular music has to pay for it. If they don't, it's a federal crime. So they've got the media by the short hairs. If anyone on the internet uses their music, they must follow the digital copyright act. It's all very clearly spelled out. Maybe you should read it.
 


Another problem is the American idiosyncrasy of using 60" spots almost to the exclusion of all others. In much of the world the 30" spot and even the 15" or 10" spot are more common. A 60" spot today is just too long.

Ad-supported streaming requires a new model of very short spots. Many of the visual webs with ads or popup intros have 10" video commercials.

I think terrestrial radio needs to eliminate the 60" spot entirely. I thinks streams with ads need to consider much shorter spot lengths.

Decades ago, I put another country's first FM on the air. I sold a maximum of 6 20" spots an hour, and priced them at a premium. That station ended up being my most profitable station (out of my 9 in that market). It can be done.

I absolutely agree with your observations.
 
To reiterate previous posts: There isn't enough good creative out there to sustain 30s, let alone 60s. I sure wouldn't want to come up with a catchy hook for a 60. Anything longer than a 15 is probably a waste of time.

On the streaming music model: if the music industry wants .0017 per performance, or approximately 2.7¢ per listener hour, the subscription-only model is where we're going. Free streaming is not sustainable. Ad-supported isn't working. And we microcasters aren't going to put out $150 or more per month just to keep our little 5000 listener hr/month streams going.
 
And that's the problem. I suppose any streamer would need new listeners to have some way to get in to a stream free to sample it for a while before subscribing. I wonder how Live 365 did as far as subscribers versus free listening. Certainly a collective of stations would be preferred for a subscription.
 
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