The future - podcasts or live talk radio?

[PeterTR]

As more and more people talk about investing in podcasts, I wonder how much of the talk radio audience will leave traditional live talk radio; specifically sports and political programs.

I've spoken to many people, who prefer podcasts, as to the appeal, and the common response usually goes, "I can listen when I want, and there are less commercials."

Let's discuss the two.

"I can listen when I want"

My thought is that there will be a segment of the talk radio audience that will choose convenience over immediacy, but I believe the majority of sports and political listeners are going to choose to hear the most current information.

On the other hand, formats that aren't as time sensitive, such as financial shows like Dave Ramsey or programs about cars or technology, may see the majority of their listeners migrate to podcasts.

"There are less commercials"

Most of the people I've spoken to are listening to podcasts of shows that are not original (only released as podcasts) but are essentially "reruns" of aired shows. In such cases, these programs have been funded by advertisements when originally broadcast. If they originate as podcasts, they would most likely require more advertising due to not being "subsidized" by a traditional broadcast. This may negate the advantage it receives by listeners who don't like hearing advertisements.

What do you think? Do you believe live broadcasts will be substantially replaced by podcasts or will the switch to podcasts only represent a minor share of talk listeners?

 

[PTBoardOp94]

My thought is that there will be a segment of the talk radio audience that will choose convenience over immediacy, but I believe the majority of sports and political listeners are going to choose to hear the most current information.

Ehh. Podcasts can be immediate if the producer wants them to be. Especially in politics, several producers will put out an Extra! episode if events warrant.
But for the most part, publishing a podcast on a regular schedule works just fine for covering news and sports. It's just like publishing a once-daily newspaper or a once-weekly magazine.

"There are less commercials"

Most of the people I've spoken to are listening to podcasts of shows that are not original (only released as podcasts) but are essentially "reruns" of aired shows. In such cases, these programs have been funded by advertisements when originally broadcast. If they originate as podcasts, they would most likely require more advertising due to not being "subsidized" by a traditional broadcast. This may negate the advantage it receives by listeners who don't like hearing advertisements.

I'm not sure the people you're taking to are representative. If you look at the top 10 podcasts by unique subscribers (Podtrac data), six are not rebroadcasts of a radio show. The other four are rebroadcasts of public radio shows (This American Life, Wait Wait!, Fresh Air, TED Radio Hour). All ten are produced by a recognizable media company, though.

Having said that, a lot of podcast media is economical to the point that people can do it in their spare time. Anybody can put together a podcast about the Tampa Bay Rays. Half an hour twice a week? Should be pretty easy. The main thing it would take is dedication. And because there's no "employees" per se, the cost is very low. A single $50/week sponsor would probably make you feel like you had a pretty good side business going.

There is a third factor you did not mention: with podcasting, you get to select exactly which programs to listen to. For example, I subscribe to podcasts about some obscure sports (track & field primarily).
So I have this question on my lunch break: Would I rather listen to:
a) Colin Cowherd yammer on about LeBron and Brady for the 721st time? NO!
b) Limbaugh rail on Nancy Pelosi for the 994th time? Hahah, nope.
c) Would I rather hear Terry Gross on Fresh Air re-airing a 30 year old interview with a ballet choreographer who died this week? You've got to be kidding me.
d) a podcast about track & field? Yes!

Pretty easy choice for me. Keep in mind, I work in radio. But very little talk radio programming (news or sportstalk) excites me. Roughly 95% of my time spent listening to talk programming is via podcasts, and I'm not coming back.

 

[TheBigA]

What do you think? Do you believe live broadcasts will be substantially replaced by podcasts or will the switch to podcasts only represent a minor share of talk listeners?

Right now, podcasts are "new revenue." Any money they make is more than what they made before. It'll be interesting to see how they perform after a few years.

My sense is it won't be one or the other, but both, plus a curated feed of talk highlights.

 

[gr8oldies]

What's hurting is it's hard to discover them and remember to listen to them. iHeart is apparently working on that

 

[TheBigA]

What's hurting is it's hard to discover them and remember to listen to them. iHeart is apparently working on that

Unless they're integrated as part of a regular broadcast program. That's the "push" part of the system.

 

[Tibbs4]

Unless they're integrated as part of a regular broadcast program. That's the "push" part of the system.

I have no data on the subject of Savage, but I wonder how his podcast is doing since he has all but been banished from radio? It's one thing to tell loyal listeners to listen for months before you start the podcast, but it's another to keep people coming back. Especially when you have no real promotional arm left on radio. It may well be working. I did listen to a few shows and found them to be about the same tempo without the commercials.

As for commercials on the radio in general --- why it it that we use 30's and 60's still? Kinda seems like the complaint department refuses to listen and see that saying less more often is the way people "listen."

 

[TheBigA]

As for commercials on the radio in general --- why it it that we use 30's and 60's still?

Ummm because advertisers like them. We also offer :10s and long form infomercials. We sell whatever you'll buy. You want full sponsorship of an hour? You got it. But advertisers like 30s and 60s because they offer the right amount of time for them to make their pitch, and the right amount of repetition for it to be effective. But you're right, there is a battle going on between the time advertisers want to buy, and the time listeners are willing to listen. Which is leading more and more to subscription radio. I mean, if the listeners are willing to pick up all the costs, we'll gladly eliminate the spots altogether. It seems to be working for Sirius.

 

[PeterTR]

I guess I didn't really communicate the fact that I'm referring to broad-based political and sports shows and not either specialty shows or entertainment shows like Wait! Wait!

I'm curious, how do you listen to music?

 

[PTBoardOp94]

I guess I didn't really communicate the fact that I'm referring to broad-based political and sports shows and not either specialty shows or entertainment shows like Wait! Wait!

Well, only one of those shows is in the top 20 podcasts. So maybe you're asking the wrong question.

I don't think "broad-based political" talk shows have a future at all, at least not as major commercial enterprises.
As evidence for this, I point out that over 80% of both MSNBC and Fox News primetime viewers are over age 55. If there was interest from millennials in programming like this, surely someone would be able to name the host and station/channel/YouTube URL. I've gone looking for popular hosts in this genre among younger people, and have come up pretty empty. I would love to hear about them, if they exist.

As far as sports, ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio will always exist, as long as the TV networks they are tied to exist. But, there is likely a period of labor unrest ahead for the NFL and MLB in the next 3-5 years which may prove challenging for the sports networks. MLB's CBA expires after the 2021 season, and the NFL's CBA expires in the summer of 2021.

I'm curious, how do you listen to music?

When I choose to listen to music, it is almost always to terrestrial radio. Sometimes I will stream an out-of-market station. My music listening in the car has been reduced to near zero since I bought a car which allows me to listen to my podcasts.

 

[TheBigA]

I don't think "broad-based political" talk shows have a future at all, at least not as major commercial enterprises.

I agree. It's not about the topic, but about the host (s) and the presentation. People become fans of the presenter. Once that happens, the podcast becomes its own religion. Seth Godin talks about tribes, and podcasts are the drum.

 

[wadio]

Over the past couple of decades that I've been following talk radio forums, the constant drumbeat about talk programming is that it must be "LIVE & LOCAL."

Podcasting is never both, often neither.

There are many ways to prioritize what's important. Mine criteria are:

1 - Interesting host. Without this, all other bets are off.
2 - Interesting topics. A good host can make even an offbeat topic seem interesting.
3 - Live. The news cycle is fast. Breaking news can happen at any time.
4 - Local. I'd rather hear about vital national news than local potholes.

So while I don't completely subscribe to the "LIVE & LOCAL" mantra, I do consider LIVE critically important.

That's why I'll always pick a live stream over a podcast, even if it contains advertising.

 

[boombox4]

I don't know if podcasts are the future of talk radio or not, but local talk hosts here in the Seattle area are starting to do them.

The bigger question is: if talk radio in general appeals mainly to 55+ demos, and they are slowly fading away, and aren't catered to by most advertisers, why would anyone think that talk hosts' podcasts will outlast terrestrial talk radio?

I myself have only listened to one podcast, and that was one of Ben Maller's the year Peyton Manning was headed to the Super Bowl for the last time. It was interesting hearing his show away from radio, but when I go online my inclination isn't "wow, what podcasts are out there?" The only radio-like thing I get off the 'net is to check out music on YouTube.

But that's me. For the public in general, it obviously may work differently.

 

[TheBigA]

But that's me. For the public in general, it obviously may work differently.

For another example, I know several people involved in the audio book business. They tell me it's incredibly busy and profitable. Audio books have revived the publishing business. I personally have no interest. But apparently a lot of people do.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

The bigger question is: if talk radio in general appeals mainly to 55+ demos, and they are slowly fading away, and aren't catered to by most advertisers, why would anyone think that talk hosts' podcasts will outlast terrestrial talk radio?

As the resident defender of podcasting on this thread, I don't think anyone is proposing that a podcast is going to outlast any particular terrestrial talk show, nor that podcasting a failing radio show is likely to lower the age demographics who listen. That's probably more about appealing to the diehards who don't want to miss a minute of Michael Smerconish. Although it certainly is the case that a few people have left or been fired from radio and kept a podcast going. (Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, and others). But I would expect most hosts would not continue to do a podcast if their radio show ended.

But podcasting certainly can outlast talk radio as an overall medium. There will come a point where commercial radio operators decide to pull the plug. Maybe Cumulus goes bankrupt again in 2021, and someone buys their FM stations but turns in the licenses for WABC and WLS and KABC. Meanwhile, podcasters keep going with $100 a month in funding as part of the "gig economy". Or Rush retires at the end of 2020, and takes his audience with him. Just a couple possibilities.

 

[TheBigA]

Meanwhile, podcasters keep going with $100 a month in funding as part of the "gig economy". Or Rush retires at the end of 2020, and takes his audience with him. Just a couple possibilities.

No question that creating and uploading podcasts is immensely cheaper than broadcasting on the radio. With the costs being less, the profitability is potentially higher. Having said that, I can attest that the most successful podcasts today are the ones that get at least a million downloads per episode. Those are the ones that are sponsorable. So unless you're doing something that can attract that kind of fan base, you can't expect to make much money. But as I said, the costs are so low, you really don't need to make any money. We live in a world where people will do things like blogs and podcasts with no real financial plan. Some become successes, some don't. But contrast that to the millions or hundreds of millions required to do broadcast radio, and you can understand the attraction.

 

[wadio]

But podcasting certainly can outlast talk radio as an overall medium. There will come a point where commercial radio operators decide to pull the plug.

We may have two conversations going here: Podcasting vs. Terrestrial Radio, and Podcasting vs. Live Streaming Audio. I haven't listened to terrestrial radio in several years. At home it's 100% internet streams of terrestrial stations; in the car its Satellite Radio.

I don't disagree at all that OTA radio will disappear with time - the infrastructure is too expensive to maintain, the real estate is too valuable to support it and there's too much competition from "other media."

So maybe the real debate is the future for canned ad-free content vs. live ad-supported content.

 

[gr8oldies]

Why does every ex-radio person make this all either-or. You listen to terrestrial OR you listen to podcasts. You listen to terrestrial OR you listen to Spotify (even for a 10 minute drive to the store). It's possible to mix podcasts, streaming, talk and music radio. There are podcasts that would probably never work on terrestrial (true crime as one example).

 

[boombox4]

Why does every ex-radio person make this all either-or. You listen to terrestrial OR you listen to podcasts. You listen to terrestrial OR you listen to Spotify (even for a 10 minute drive to the store). It's possible to mix podcasts, streaming, talk and music radio. There are podcasts that would probably never work on terrestrial (true crime as one example).

Perhaps because podcasts are relatively new media, especially in the radio business, and because there are numerous predictions that OTA radio is old tech and is going to fade away. We also witness what happened to newspapers and magazines (and also, to a certain extent, book publishing), where new tech has altered the industry. Any time there is new tech that appears to be overtaking the old, the either-or issue is going to come up.