Radio Predictions for 2020

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

Digital AM will be an afterthought.

Some parts of the country will shut down HD Radio signals as seen in the recent Iheart cuts to HD Radio signals due to audience on Podcasts.

Podcasts will become the norm.

 

[davideduardo]

Digital AM will be an afterthought.

Some parts of the country will shut down HD Radio signals as seen in the recent Iheart cuts to HD Radio signals due to audience on Podcasts..

HD will not disappear... just some of the HD-2 and beyond channels. The main HD channel will remain, and many sub channels will continue to enable translators.

And remember that, at least now, podcasts don’t contain music.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

HD will not disappear... just some of the HD-2 and beyond channels. The main HD channel will remain, and many sub channels will continue to enable translators.

And remember that, at least now, podcasts don’t contain music.

True the Royalties issue with labels was one of the reasons why Podcasts don't contain music.

 

[gr8oldies]

Royalties are THE reason podcasts don't contain music.

True the Royalties issue with labels was one of the reasons why Podcasts don't contain music.

 

[gr8oldies]

I don't see anyting terribly exciting or surprising happening in radio in 2020. The ownerships have pretty well shaken out the way they intended. Someone will bring back 20-20 News for 2020.

 

[TheBigA]

Royalties are THE reason podcasts don't contain music.

Although the music industry recently announced it has a way to fix that:

https://www.podcastmusic.com/2019/0...rs-and-podcasters-with-new-licensing-service/

Of course what this mainly is for is production music, not hit songs from the world's best known stars. That situation is still pretty complicated. Because the podcaster would need to pay royalties to both SoundExchange and the various publishing PROs (ASCAP, BMI, SESAC, GMR).

So yes, for now podcasting is still primarily a spoken word medium. I don't see it changing.

 

[davideduardo]

Although the music industry recently announced it has a way to fix that:

https://www.podcastmusic.com/2019/0...rs-and-podcasters-with-new-licensing-service/

Of course what this mainly is for is production music, not hit songs from the world's best known stars. That situation is still pretty complicated. Because the podcaster would need to pay royalties to both SoundExchange and the various publishing PROs (ASCAP, BMI, SESAC, GMR).

So yes, for now podcasting is still primarily a spoken word medium. I don't see it changing.

And the issue is that podcasts often are a downloadable recording, listenable any time one wants even when not connected to a streaming service. The music industry does not want permanent copies of songs downloaded in digital form unless it is a per-song or per-album purchase.

They have two hoops to jump through, and there is not much money left after doing that.

 

[fmradioguy]

Digital AM will be an afterthought.

Some parts of the country will shut down HD Radio signals as seen in the recent Iheart cuts to HD Radio signals due to audience on Podcasts.

Podcasts will become the norm.

Entercom has began following iHeart in turning off AM HD stations. WCCO 830 ditched their HD signal in April of 2018. I assume that WBBM 780 has turned their HD off as well because I used to be able to get WBBM in HD at night.

 

[seattlesarchiebunker]

1) We will see a much faster pace of AMs going dark. Stick value will drastically drop over the value of the land on which it’s built. Combine that with NIMBYism in most of these places to allow towers, small AMs in places like the Bay Area, Puget Sound, NE corridor, SoCal, and Southern Florida are at risk.

2) The upcoming FCC auction will be a record breaker as EMF pays a little over $4 million in a bidding war for the former KDND license in Sacramento.

3) There will be a glut of LPFMs deleted by the FCC or turned in by their licensees due to financial instability and/or never being built in the first place. Allows another LPFM filing window sometime in 2021.

Overall, the metrics will show a slowly graying audience as compared to internet-based listening services. Radio will still struggle to find a solution to lower ad revenue—especially as these listeners start aging out of the 18-55 demos. I saw a study here showing the average Cumulus (I think) listener was 48 years old...people who stream the stations are about 5 years younger...both will be out of the money demo before the decade is out.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

I assume that WBBM 780 has turned their HD off as well because I used to be able to get WBBM in HD at night.

WBBM is no longer in HD after changing transmitter sites earlier this year (diplexed with WSCR)

 

[TheBigA]

I saw a study here showing the average Cumulus (I think) listener was 48 years old...people who stream the stations are about 5 years younger...both will be out of the money demo before the decade is out.

The thing that hurts a lot of radio companies, including Cumulus, is the lack of investment in other platforms. If they're putting all of their eggs in towers and transmitters, and all of their eggs in formats such as classic hits, classic rock, and talk, they will find their audience will age out of the demo very soon. One hopes that these companies recognize this now and begin the work they need to do to catch the audience while they still can.

 

[crainbebo]

I will predict even more FM translators of AM stations will go on the air. Stations that don't have a translator yet, will.
Soft AC will return in a few more markets as well, like Denver. Look at KSWD, KISQ, etc. and their success.

And as AM translators become the norm, the FCC and Congress will set a date (2025?) that all AM stations except those at 50KW, those in areas with little or no radio service (Alaskan Bush stations, KTNN, etc), highway advisory radio (530/1610/etc) stations and those in hurricane-prone areas will be shut off. Another DTV transition, per say. Also there will be a loophole where FM translators will no longer need an AM to carry the signal. They can operate a 250 watt translator with no parent. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this happen, as AM listening rates fall. Ask a teenager 'what's AM?'. Some know how to program an entire website, but don't know what AM radio is. They listen to FM or streaming services like Spotify.

 

[davideduardo]

I will predict even more FM translators of AM stations will go on the air. Stations that don't have a translator yet, will.
Soft AC will return in a few more markets as well, like Denver. Look at KSWD, KISQ, etc. and their success.

Hopefully Scott Fybush will step in, but I don't believe a filing window for further "AM revitalization" translator applications is scheduled. Without a window, there are no further translators for AMs. Of course, a few already granted are not yet built, and stations can still buy translators and move them within limits.

And as AM translators become the norm, the FCC and Congress will set a date (2025?) that all AM stations except those at 50KW, those in areas with little or no radio service (Alaskan Bush stations, KTNN, etc), highway advisory radio (530/1610/etc) stations and those in hurricane-prone areas will be shut off.

They are not going to eliminate stations like WNAX and the like (one of the largest coverage stations in the US, yet just 5 kw) because it would be tantamount to confiscation of property.

They will let economics thin the herd. They are not going to eliminate lower power stations, some of which do excellent jobs of serving local areas. Power would not be a criteria, anyway... remember that 1 kw at 550 covers better than 50 kw at 1500.

The AM band has no other use that the FCC could monetize, so they will just let it fade if that is the end result.

 

[ftballfan]

In Michigan, at least one radio station will not apply for license renewal in the upcoming cycle of renewals.

The FCC will relax the market caps slightly to allow simulcasts on the same band to count as one station if their city grade contours do not overlap.

The FCC will order the end of analog broadcasts for translators and LPTVs, with the exception of remote areas and those LPTVs on channel 6 that are being used as FM stations.

 

[CTListener]

The FCC will order the end of analog broadcasts for translators and LPTVs, with the exception of remote areas and those LPTVs on channel 6 that are being used as FM stations.

Why would they grant an exception for an LPTV use that isn't television? That the Franken-FM loophole has existed for as long as it has puzzles me. It's almost like pirate operation.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

Although the music industry recently announced it has a way to fix that:

https://www.podcastmusic.com/2019/0...rs-and-podcasters-with-new-licensing-service/

Of course what this mainly is for is production music, not hit songs from the world's best known stars. That situation is still pretty complicated. Because the podcaster would need to pay royalties to both SoundExchange and the various publishing PROs (ASCAP, BMI, SESAC, GMR).

So yes, for now podcasting is still primarily a spoken word medium. I don't see it changing.

https://cheddar.com/media/jason-mraz-is-fighting-for-the-rights-of-music-creators


https://www.digitalmusicnews.com/2019/11/20/songwriters-artists-fight-music-streaming-royalties/

https://www.billboard.com/articles/...c-artists-coalition-songwriters-north-america


Expect recording contract disputes to become more publicized on music apps and on radio outlets between label, artists, songwriter and the distributors in 2020.

 

[TheBigA]

Expect recording contract disputes to become more publicized on music apps and on radio outlets between label, artists, songwriter and the distributors in 2020.

All this means if you're not paying for music, you will. It may not be in 2020, but it will happen soon.

At some point, the increased costs have to be passed on to the music consumer. Because advertising alone won't cover the cost.

 

[Tibbs4]

The thing that hurts a lot of radio companies, including Cumulus, is the lack of investment in other platforms. If they're putting all of their eggs in towers and transmitters, and all of their eggs in formats such as classic hits, classic rock, and talk, they will find their audience will age out of the demo very soon. One hopes that these companies recognize this now and begin the work they need to do to catch the audience while they still can.

The impossible fix. The audience is fading just as fast on the younger spectrum than on the older. Just they are not dying. Their listenership is dying and the radio clock cannot be stopped for a reset or time out. As you said, classic hits/classic rock and talk are all now "old people's radio" when it was the ultimate demographic just a few years ago. So Greatest Hits now are not even most people's favorites on this board that skews ..... Tough decisions are upon the industry. Can "they" be smatrtly implemented before it's too late...and what the heck are those smart decisions other than other "platforms?"

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

I expect in the 2020's FM radio to be the same as AM was in the 1990's and early 2000's News, Talk, Sports/talk and brokered programming as the target demos have migrated music listening to music streaming outlets.

 

[crainbebo]

Not going to happen. In December 2029 we'll still have music all over FM. It's AM that I feel will die off, whether by a forceful FCC shutoff date or just economics, that's to be decided.