The threats to terrestrial radio keep on coming...

[TheBigA]

Advertisers buy the audience size when each ad runs. Average Quarter Hour listenership. And AQH listening overall, called PUR or Persons Using Radio, is off by as much as 60% since 2005 in the PPM markets.

That brings to mind the need for consistent metrics so we can compare radio on different platforms. Perhaps this new Apple service will be the motivation. If they're willing to participate. They may not be.

 

[davideduardo]

That brings to mind the need for consistent metrics so we can compare radio on different platforms. Perhaps this new Apple service will be the motivation. If they're willing to participate. They may not be.

If they are not ad-supported, then there is little incentive to participate. They know how many subscribers they have, and can monitor usage of all the options.

The problem with the PPM is that it must "hear" what the person is listening to. With so much listening done with in-ear devices, the PPM does not pick up that listening.

 

[TheBigA]

If they are not ad-supported, then there is little incentive to participate.

Then again, if they're not ad-supported, they're not as much of a threat, because they're on a different playing field.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

Then again, if they're not ad-supported, they're not as much of a threat, because they're on a different playing field.

Not really. If there were to be a significant loss of radio listening toward these services, radio loses advertisers or suffers rate erosion, by delivering less audience.

 

[TheBigA]

Not really. If there were to be a significant loss of radio listening toward these services, radio loses advertisers or suffers rate erosion, by delivering less audience.

Which is why the big radio companies are building their own platforms on the internet, and finding other ways to enlarge the size of their ad footprint.

 

[Groove1670]

One detail I'll add is that Apple Music Radio is not a free service. There is no free option. This requires a $10 a month or $99 a year subscription. There are 60 million people who have done that. But that pricing is comparable to Sirius, which is why I say it's more a threat to them. You know those artist stations at Sirius? There are even more of them at Apple Music. If you're comfortable with the idea of paying for radio, you have many choices. But the problem with this service is someone else controls the playlist. That's why the majority of the people who subscribe to Apple Music generally don't listen to the radio stations. They're hoping that by professionalizing them, that will improve their value to users.

Every new audio entry is a threat to another radio source (take your pick).

Sirius continues to to hold at 25+ million subscirbers. In our community, the listeners that I hear listening are men over 55+ that have aged out of terrestral radio, and listen to FOX, MLB, Willie or Buffet channels.

On the Apple service. This is a reboot. The first time around it was more exciting to industry people not so much to the public. Hiring talent that was popular in large radio markets might boost awareness. Hiring radio programming staff will allow them to take some of the things that work for terrestrial radio.

Right now with so much disruption I think everyone is trying to find something that will stick. Sarcasm (or maybe not): Anyone for Tik Tok radio©?

 

[landtuna]

The issue is that you are the dinosaur.

I try to stay out of the sun.

I do remember the Alley Oop comic strip every Sunday though.

 

[Groove1670]

Bitten by auto correct. And your assumption is correct.



Because, as we are seeing, terrestrial radio is in severe decline with reductions in everything from news coverage to live talent. The reason is that, in inflation adjusted dollars, radio is off 60% in revenue since 2005. This means that the "profit window" is gone right now with the Corona Virus making it even worse.

The problem is that free streaming can not currently be profitable because of the digital rights fees and the reduced buying of advertiser sponsored media. So we will have some kind of transformation in the model of terrestrial broadcast radio to adapt. My suspicion is that we will see "national" radio with local stations just repeating national formats, such as what we see in much of the rest of the world.



As BigA said, the predominance of different ad categories is due to the absence of conventional accounts. Stations are taking anything that comes along since, as we have seen from the Q2 financial reports of the public radio companies, all radio is losing money.

Interestingly, in talking with some friends who own very small market stations, they report that revenue is not off by the 30% to 60% seen in bigger, rated markets. It almost seems as if the bigger the market, the more damage has been done in the pandemic. Part of this, of course, is that the bigger markets have much higher agency business and the agencies are not buying as much, and they are not buying radio under the belief that new media is a better vehicle during the pandemic.

Most of the smarter radio groups are tying to move the whole business model to online, leaving AM and FM behind or as a supplement only. But that means that listeners have direct expenses of needing online service providers and optional expenses for subscription services.

On the small market level, we are doing things that would of been a no-no a few years ago. We are doing several block programming sements on the weekend that are profitable. We are also doing podcasting, and promoting across all platforms. We can change, innovate, and test on a local level. That's not gonna happen in a corporate group (with a few exceptions like the BIN network).

National and regional buys will continue to dry up for small markets. As long as we continune to take programming from Premiere and Westwood One networks, there is no need to search for individual stations for buys.

I see Nielsen pulling out of more smaller markets in addition to those announced. Stations realize the ROI isn't there to subscribe. Eastlin has decided to survey our market, but will agencies look at those numbers? Probably not.

A issue right now is the LUR and political public file information. Networks are not getting the paperwork to the affiliates on time. Plus the LUR is around $375 per add, a issue for the affiliate. Some stations are prempting spots. This will need to be addressed sooner or later.

Small market radio is its worst enemy. We whore ourselves out for (in most cases) free programming. Disclosure I run about 4 hours or syndicated programming a week, but not from the entities in my comments. They are also sold locally.

 

[TheBigA]

I run about 4 hours or syndicated programming a week, but not from the entities in my comments. They are also sold locally.

That may become easier if the Independent Broadcasters Association gets started. Their intent is to find a way to share talent among their members without barter or payment:

http://radioiba.org/

Shared Resources - A system that allows sharing of that talent in non-competitive situations and reduces our dependence on national syndication that requires cash, barter and sometimes both.

Personally I don't know how they do this without someone getting paid.

 

[Groove1670]

That may become easier if the Independent Broadcasters Association gets started. Their intent is to find a way to share talent among their members without barter or payment:

http://radioiba.org/



Personally I don't know how they do this without someone getting paid.

The IBA is a start, and I hope broadcasters will support Ron Stone and his efforts. I have spoken with him, and he a has a great vision. Now more than ever small market radio needs a voice.


I think the key is hiring and paying voicetracked talent. I know that for sports and N/T formats it difficult to find or create programming for a full day and a network is justified. For music, you can buy a full library from someone like Dave Scott, a playbacksystem like Wideobit or stationplaylist and a traffic system and you're in business.

Our issue is breaking away from the codependency of national syndication in smal markets.

We work with our trackers to produce local content and they do a great job (most are 25+ years talent). We don't give up inventory, can adjust our rotation to the market, no affidavits or paperwork, and no hassle with complicated engineering or satellite hookups.

The reality is many stations don't want the hassle and will continue to do the same ole...same ole, and the barter networks will continue to use and profit off off of small market stations.

 

[jimbo]

DavidE -

Is there an inconsistency in these two statements?

"As terrestrial radio becomes less and less a part of American's lives, there will be an undeserved segment of the population populated predominantly by Blacks, Hispanics and low income groups."

"Over 90% of persons 25-54 use radio weekly, off only by 4 points since 1995."

Is radio listening less and less a part of American life or is being off by 4 percent since 1995 not trivial or is there some other measurement that tells the story?
Not nit-picking, just trying to understand the situation.

thanks,
Jim

 

[davideduardo]

DavidE -

Is radio listening less and less a part of American life or is being off by 4 percent since 1995 not trivial or is there some other measurement that tells the story?
Not nit-picking, just trying to understand the situation.

In the simplest terms, about the same percentage of people listen to radio regularly as they have in the past.

However, the amount of time they listen is significantly below prior levels.

Compared to 2005, listening in hours per week is off about 60% in 15 years. They still listen, but fewer quarter hours. About half of the loss of TSL is due to the introduction of the PPM, and the rest is due to new alternatives such as streaming, etc.

 

[TheBigA]

Is radio listening less and less a part of American life or is being off by 4 percent since 1995 not trivial

Time spent listening peaked towards the end of the 80s, and from then on, radio was sharing time with lots of other devices, from MTV to Gameboys to personal music collections. For most people, radio didn't go away completely, but there was less time spent with it.

A lot of this was being pushed by music itself, and the way music consumption changed during the 80s. In the 60s, people depended on radio for music because they didn't (to a large degree) have personal music devices. That changed with the home stereo boom of the 70s. People started making their own personal mixtapes. They recorded songs off the radio or from their friends' collections. This led to the tax on recording tape. There was some music discovery taking place from radio, but it was also peer-to-peer. Gen X was the first generation that grew up with personal music rather than top-down music. That led to less reliance on radio for music and lifestyle in the 90s, as compared to the 60s.

People say streaming has hurt radio listening, but the fact is it's practically killed music sales. People don't buy music any more. They stream it. The source of revenue for record labels used to be record sales. Now it's streaming royalties. Fewer cars have CD players. More have USB ports. This thread is about Apple Radio, which is a hosted streaming service. Apple has been offering this kind of service for ten years without much success, because people prefer unhosted streaming. Now though Apple is spending more money on it, hiring better talent, and doing more promotion. In my view, this is more of a challenge to satellite, because the cost of Apple Radio is about the same as a subscription to Sirius. If you don't mind paying for radio, now you have a choice.

Traditional radio is still popular because it's free and easy. No subscription required. But all of the other options have started to dilute the importance, at least in terms of concentration. Radio is less a part of America's lives and more of a utility, like a microwave or anything else.

 

[b-turner]

Nothing really to add to the above except to check if the data is strictly radio listening via the device called a radio or some other means. From data I have seen, over the air radio is at the top of the heap for online listening partly because the stations are known and familiar to the person streaming the station. It would seem the non-over the air streamer finds it very hard to gain a substantial audience.

 

[TheBigA]

It would seem the non-over the air streamer finds it very hard to gain a substantial audience.

Especially if we're talking about someone doing specialized music. The internet is the world's biggest haystack, and there are millions of radio stations on the internet. People need help finding radio stations (if we're talking about curated music services rather than personal playlists), and local radio stations do a better job of marketing themselves to specific audiences than national services.

 

[Kelly A]

Every new audio entry is a threat to another radio source (take your pick).

Sirius continues to to hold at 25+ million subscirbers. In our community, the listeners that I hear listening are men over 55+ that have aged out of terrestral radio, and listen to FOX, MLB, Willie or Buffet channels.

Because nobody holds them accountable for accuracy, SXM inflates their subscription numbers to include everything from vehicles sitting on a dealership lot, first year trial, streaming, and expired subs. Last most-believable figures I saw puts them at around 2% of radio-listening. That's if you throw in Pandora listening too.

Right now with so much disruption I think everyone is trying to find something that will stick. Sarcasm (or maybe not): Anyone for Tik Tok radio©?

Other than cost cutting and trying to stay afloat, I don't think many stations or groups are making big changes. Change costs money, and given the pandemic, one would be foolish to make expensive changes because it could all change again.

 

[TheBigA]

SXM inflates their subscription numbers to include everything from vehicles sitting on a dealership lot, first year trial, streaming, and expired subs. Last most-believable figures I saw puts them at around 2% of radio-listening. That's if you throw in Pandora listening too.

Plus as I said about Apple Music, the Sirius music channels don't run advertising, so they're not players in the local ad marketplace. Pandora is, but only in larger markets. That appears diminishing as Pandora is trying to move more to subscription based. The music industry hates free streaming, and would love to see it all go away.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

Plus as I said about Apple Music, the Sirius music channels don't run advertising, so they're not players in the local ad marketplace. Pandora is, but only in larger markets.

I'm in a small market (think #150-200), and Pandora definitely had a local sales effort, at least before the merger. Sure, I got a lot of Flo from Progressive ads, but probably not any higher ratio than I'd get listening to the local radio.

 

[TheBigA]

I got a lot of Flo from Progressive ads, but probably not any higher ratio than I'd get listening to the local radio.

But were those ads coming from local sales? I know a few people who got laid off from radio sales, and promptly got hired to do local sales for Pandora. But all of them were in markets between #10 and #75. I recall their spot price was a fraction of what radio stations charge.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

Our issue is breaking away from the codependency of national syndication in smal markets.

We work with our trackers to produce local content and they do a great job (most are 25+ years talent). We don't give up inventory, can adjust our rotation to the market, no affidavits or paperwork, and no hassle with complicated engineering or satellite hookups.

The reality is many stations don't want the hassle and will continue to do the same ole...same ole, and the barter networks will continue to use and profit off off of small market stations.

I'm not sure about this. I don't think most stations currently attached to 24/7 formats are really prepared to program their own station. What I typically see is a group situation where one station gets all the resources, and one or two other stations with the same ownership are driven by syndicated formats. If the dominant station is country, and you have two other stations running WW1 Hot AC and "The Touch", it's unlikely the company has the expertise on staff to program those other two stations.

On the other hand, airing syndicated jocks that are neither live nor local isn't great. I don't think any of the 24/7 formats are live today, which takes away options for the jocks to appear relevant.

I also don't think the national advertisers buy the network breaks on these formats are concerned about their ads being heard in Goodland, KS or Bethany, WV. If a station in a place like that flips from "The Touch" to locally produced programming, the odds they will get money from Progressive insurance or Grainger Tools remains near zero. Westwood can sell its formats in a bundle. Those advertisers want to reach a couple million listeners on 110 radio stations nationwide, but they probably have limited interest in any one of them individually.