NYC radio market population

[Theater of My Mind]

That is not what I read. I am hearing about plans being laid for migration out of the heavily taxed NY/NJ area for less costly areas of the nation, using the current situation to cover long-ranging relocation plans.

A significant mutual fund I get mailings from sent an email that says that their new investor services are relocating and giving information about the new offices in the south (I prefer not to say any more as it reveals investments). That's a major move.

That may be true for your investment firm but I don't think anyone seriously thinks Wall Street and the major finance institutions on the whole will be moving out of NYC. Covid lockdowns have given everyone too much time to imagine an apocalyptic future. Truth is, it has accelerated some shifts in the way we do things. Some will stick, some probably won't. Just because technology and necessity has shown everyone how to make things work remotely doesn't mean it's the best or most desirable way in every case.

Most people and companies that are located in New York are here because they want to be. Yes taxes are high but schools are rated among the highest in the nation and people understand that taxes actually pay for good things. Funny how the conservative media outlets that cry the loudest about taxes are all based in New York even though they could go anywhere else where taxes are low and the schools are rated 48th in the nation. I don't know anyone who wants to move from NYC to the south unless they come from there.

Plenty of people have left New York right now because they have to. People like Broadway actors, producers, crew, caterers - the number of people in that industry alone is huge. Virtually none of them have money coming in to pay the rent so some have left to go back to their hometowns and families for the rest of the year. But they'll be back. And the tourists will be back to see the shows, and so all the restaurants and supporting industries will be back. And the people who don't come back will be replaced by new people taking their places as business and the economy recovers. If you don't think that's true then you're not considering the inevitable rebound effect that will occur following Covid. None of us are fortune tellers but you should try consuming some positive media that predicts these things, not just the outlets that constantly fear monger.

 

[MassMusicMan]

That's exactly the kind of business you want in your area: newer technology and greater worker security for the future.

Amazon is hardly a company that I would associate with "worker security."

 

[CassChopper96]

Do you think all of this rioting and looting in places like Minneapolis and seattle will have an adverse effect on radio revenues

 

[davideduardo]

Do you think all of this rioting and looting in places like Minneapolis and seattle will have an adverse effect on radio revenues

At the retail level, yes. In the more protest-active business areas, the fear that spontaneous protests may occur in business areas, some residents will prefer to say at home and not visit retail outlets. That can affect revenue, just as the passage of a hurricane... even the threat of one... can affect business in other cities.

On the other hand, where demonstrations are limited to small areas, business in other areas and suburbs will proceed as normal. The real issue is whether local residents become apprehensive or fearful and further restrict any out-of-home excursions.

I have heard from friends in several places where there have been demonstrations (even ones that are proper and peaceful) that clients have suspended campaigns while those protests continue.

 

[davideduardo]

Amazon is hardly a company that I would associate with "worker security."

Why not? Employees seem to have quite good job security, even at the entry level. The fact is that most of the Amazon merchandise fulfillment jobs are entry level... no different than "stock boys" a hundred years ago. They receive merchandise, stock it, select it, ship it. With the difference that there is no retail step, it is no different that that job at Sears in 1920.

On the other hand, the staff at the other Amazon divisions such as the huge data centers, website management, purchasing and the like are middle and high executive level and skilled technicians.

Entry level jobs are always going to be fluid, with higher turnover. In the long-ago past, teens and college students were a big part of that occupation, while now it seems to be mostly recent immigrants. But other than that change, the fact is that the lowest paying jobs tend to have the highest turnover. But the jobs themselves continue to exist and pour money into the local economy.

 

[davideduardo]

That may be true for your investment firm but I don't think anyone seriously thinks Wall Street and the major finance institutions on the whole will be moving out of NYC.

They are already (and have been for a number of years) moving the non-executive jobs out of the NYC (and LA, Chicago) metros for areas where pay rates, costs of doing business, housing, etc. are lower. Years ago all the NYC based magazines moved subscription fulfillment to Iowa; that is just one example. Accounting, data processing, customer relations, etc. are all moving out of the expensive metros.

A good example is that the major brokerage houses have very limited NYC staff now. All the "back office" work is done elsewhere, and the "speak to a representative" folks are out in the fly-over zone.

Covid lockdowns have given everyone too much time to imagine an apocalyptic future. Truth is, it has accelerated some shifts in the way we do things. Some will stick, some probably won't. Just because technology and necessity has shown everyone how to make things work remotely doesn't mean it's the best or most desirable way in every case.

We are seeing that the need to drive to work is significantly reduced, and many areas have seen decreased pollution. There will be less retail, and more home deliveries. Some of this was happening, but the virus accelerated it.

Just look at iHeart which is now moving to much smaller offices for local stations, with even more reduced staff and lots more remote working, even on live shows. That will be emulated sooner or later by most radio groups. Similar reductions will occur in other businesses.

Locally in my market #131, my insurance agent is thinking of having staff work from home and meeting with customers in their home or doing meetings at one of those shared office space companies.

Most people and companies that are located in New York are here because they want to be.

Companies are not people. They want to be where the profit is. And the NYC area is decreasingly important for that.

I don't know anyone who wants to move from NYC to the south unless they come from there.

We are not talking about employees but, instead, the companies. They will move where they can make the most money. If the employees won't follow, they hire new ones. One of my daughters worked with one of the major auditing firms and was based in Atlanta; nearly all the higher level associates were from NYC and they were uniformly happy they had left.

Plenty of people have left New York right now because they have to. People like Broadway actors, producers, crew, caterers - the number of people in that industry alone is huge. Virtually none of them have money coming in to pay the rent so some have left to go back to their hometowns and families for the rest of the year. But they'll be back.

The metro area is nearly 19 million. While show business attracts tourists and benefits the economy in many ways, it's really only a few thousand people. It is not a significant employer.

If you don't think that's true then you're not considering the inevitable rebound effect that will occur following Covid. None of us are fortune tellers but you should try consuming some positive media that predicts these things, not just the outlets that constantly fear monger.

Every economist suggests that there will be a significant change in what we do and how we do it after the pandemic is over. I know of one radio-tv operation in LA that is looking at much smaller facilities, with the technical operation (master control, etc) done out of the state. The pandemic has simply accelerated those changes.

 

[TheBigA]

On the other hand, where demonstrations are limited to small areas, business in other areas and suburbs will proceed as normal. The real issue is whether local residents become apprehensive or fearful and further restrict any out-of-home excursions.

I know Fox News is trying to make this seem as though the entire country is under siege but it's not.

 

[davideduardo]

That won't change. This current situation won't last. In a few months we'll be going back to concerts and sports events. And when that happens, we'll remember why we love big cities.

The only big cities in North America that I find lovable are Toronto and, maybe, Vancouver. But Toronto has always been near the top of my list and moved to first place only when Mexico City became too violent and terrible.

 

[davideduardo]

I know Fox News is trying to make this seem as though the entire country is under siege but it's not.

No, they seem to be focusing on the "fact" that only big, long-time Democrat-run cities are having problems, whether economic or civil unrest.

 

[TheBigA]

No, they seem to be focusing on the "fact" that only big, long-time Democrat-run cities are having problems, whether economic or civil unrest.

Except that there are lots of big Democrat-run cities that AREN'T having problems. They're all doing just fine until someone in the police department kills an unarmed black man, usually for no reason. That's where the problem is. The fact that it keeps happening is very suspicious to me.

 

[Theater of My Mind]

The only big cities in North America that I find lovable are Toronto and, maybe, Vancouver. But Toronto has always been near the top of my list

That's funny since both of those cities have the qualities you've spent so much time disparaging in this thread. They're both liberal cities, and Canada as a country is to the left of the U.S. with government-run healthcare, robust social programs and (to keep an element of radio in this) stronger regulations on broadcasting, banking and industries in general. The taxes in Toronto and Vancouver are *much* higher than any American city including NYC, yet they thrive and are great cities offering excellent quality of life. Interesting to note that those "happiness" ratings of countries that get published periodically always put Canada far ahead of the United States.

 

[davideduardo]

That's funny since both of those cities have the qualities you've spent so much time disparaging in this thread. They're both liberal cities, and Canada as a country is to the left of the U.S. with government-run healthcare, robust social programs and (to keep an element of radio in this) stronger regulations on broadcasting, banking and industries in general. The taxes in Toronto and Vancouver are *much* higher taxes than any American city including NYC, yet they thrive and are great cities offering excellent quality of life. Interesting to note that those "happiness" ratings of countries that get published periodically always put Canada far ahead of the United States.

Canada has done its regulation much more sensibly, and its implementation is dramatically better... in all areas from broadcasting to medical care.

Of course, Canada has more power placed in the national government and less in the provincial and city administrations than the US. This may have something to do with better national policies. I am not against progressive social programs when they are well done and well managed as I am a fiscal conservative but a social progressive.

Radio regulation has been sensible in some ways and restrictive in others. The sensible part is the analysis of every market before new stations are permitted to see if additional stations will reduce the ability to serve by existing ones. And few daytimers, more higher power fulltime AMs in the past and attention to under served groups. On the negative side, CanCon forces playing lots of mediocre songs when music should be controlled by taste, not legislation. But overall, Canadian radio is better than US radio.

US radio was designed in the 30's based on a far lesser urban population and much smaller cities in geographical terms. Class IV AMs could cover even some of the Top 10 markets then. But post-WW II urban sprawl made nearly every station on AM incapable of serving its market fully. Some markets, like DC and Cleveland and Houston have only one truly decent AM (with Canada being totally different). And Canadian restrictions on excessive licensing allowed most AMs to move to FM, allowing some AM channels to be repurposed for ethnic and minority broadcasts. Much smarter.

The tax structure is different. If you compare CA taxes on real estate that is, at least anywhere you'd live if you had total choice, absurdly expensive compared with the nicer Canadian options, it is not so expensive. My dream choice is Nanaimo, but I fear it is not a practical option. After that, it would be Medell?*n, Colombia or San José, Costa Rica. All the work I do is now via the web, so I could go to Bali if I found being drowned by global warming attractive!

 

[Kemosabe]

Due to a 2010 referendum, the term limit for elected city positions has been cut back to two. Therefore, Mayor de Blasio is ineligible for reelection.

The 2010 ballot question appeared as follows:

QUESTION 1. Term Limits: The proposal would amend the City Charter to:

• Reduce from three to two the maximum number of consecutive full terms that can be served by elected city officials; and
• Make this change in term limits applicable only to those city officials who were first elected at or after the 2010 general election; and
• Prohibit the City Council from altering the term limits of elected city officials then serving in office.

Shall this proposal be adopted?

* * *

Chapter 50, Section 1138 of the New York City Charter (current through Local Law 2020/077, enacted July 26, 2020,
and includes amendments effective through July 26, 2020) reads as follows:

Section 1138. Term limits.

a. Notwithstanding any provision to the contrary contained in this charter, no person shall be eligible to be elected to or serve in the office of mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president or council member if that person had previously held such office for two or more consecutive full terms, unless one full term or more has elapsed since that person last held such office.
b. Notwithstanding any other provision to the contrary, no local law may be enacted by the city council, including but not limited to amendment of the provisions of this chapter, if such local law would alter or permit alteration of the term limit set forth in this section as such limit applies to any person then serving in the office of mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president or council member.
c. Severability. If any provision of this section, or any provision of paragraph one of subdivision k of section eleven hundred fifty-two relating to the application of this section, shall be held invalid or ineffective in whole or in part or inapplicable to any person or situation, such holding shall not affect, impair or invalidate the remainder of this section and such paragraph, and all other provisions thereof shall nevertheless be separately and fully effective and the application of any such provision to other persons or situations shall not be affected.

 

[Groove1670]

New York has a long tradition of hating their mayors but they keep getting re-elected. "Unpopular" DeBlasio won a second term, unpopular Bloomberg got 3 terms, unpopular Giuliani got 2 terms. The growth of NYC and the health of its commercial sectors don't seem to depend on whether the mayor is deemed popular, which seems to be largely a product of opinion pundits.



AOC represents parts of the Bronx and Brooklyn. She objected to outlandish tax breaks being offered by NY to Amazon, a company that already has a reputation for paying no taxes despite being one of the richest companies in the world, in the city's effort to get them to open its second corporate headquarters there. It was a divisive issue but many people supported her, especially in her district which is what counts for a member of congress. But that was a specific, unique situation and her district isn't even located where most new businesses would think about locating in NYC so she's not going to prevent anything of the sort.

None of that has anything to do with radio and considering there's a big yellow banner at the top of the page asking people to avoid posting anything partisan, and you're a moderator, I think you're letting your political bias contradict that reminder.

All of it has to with radio. I'm not a fan of Amazon, but I understand that it would meant the hiring of more employees. When you keep a business out of a community, it means a loss of revenue which impacts industries such as radio.

 

[boombox4]

Amazon is hardly a company that I would associate with "worker security."

Have you heard of Amazon laying off a lot of people lately?

Neither have I.

 

[boombox4]

Do you think all of this rioting and looting in places like Minneapolis and seattle will have an adverse effect on radio revenues

I'm not sure about the revenue side, but there are plenty of spots on Seattle radio stations..

Like many other large cities, in Seattle a lot of businesses (including some which advertise on radio) serve the entire metro area, which, population wise, outnumbers Seattle proper about three to one.

 

[L Chanon Gade]

All of it has to with radio. I'm not a fan of Amazon, but I understand that it would meant the hiring of more employees. When you keep a business out of a community, it means a loss of revenue which impacts industries such as radio.

There was/is a lot of misinformation and B.S. in regard to the Amazon LIC deal.

When one actually looked “under the hood” at this scheme one found a Cadillac plan with a lawnmower engine.

The assertion of “twenty-five thousand jobs” was never made clear with specifics. Knowing the footprint of that area there was no way AMZN would have ever employed that number at once –even in 3 shifts.

One school of thought was that this number referred to the total that might have cycled through that location over the decade or-so of the deal. Amazon is well known to have a high churn rate (read: burnout) among employees.

Given their aggressive automation program, that figure was probably moot as well..

That neighborhood got an early taste of what was to come by the usual parasites: landlords. There were already cases of harassment of residents and businesses to clear them out for supposedly higher paying tenants.

While all this was taking the headlines, Facebook and Google signed leases for massive spaces and have been aggressively hiring –all with more civilized work conditions and without fanfare or big tax breaks.

And Amazon has quietly set up smaller fulfillment centers in Brooklyn and Staten Island along with one in Manhattan and Queens.

I live in Manhattan and saw this close up.

LCG