Hannity Out at WBEN

[davideduardo]

TSL is not shrinking, depending on the station locally. Overall listening cume is shrinking. In short, there are not as many people listening to local radio stations on any platform, as there were a few years ago. Local Talk Radio has the most loyal listeners, the highest TSL, and exclusive content. I am a huge fan of Country and local talk radio. The difference is I have not listened to YRK in probably ten years. I listen to Sirius country channels. I do listen to WBEN because of the local exclusive content. Plus, advertisers love talk radio. The key, it must be REALLY unique.

That is totally wrong, Buddy.

What is decreasing is the number of hours of weekly listening by the average listener. In 2000, the PUR, or "persons using radio" 6 AM to Midnight, M-S, was around 19, meaning that 19% of all people were listening on average. Today, the figure in the pre-Coronavirus period of "Fall" and the first months of "Spring" was around 7% with a variance of +/- 1 in the markets I look at. That is, of course, PPM.

Due to rounding, the PUR in diary markets is a bit higher, but it is still off by about half of what it was 20 years ago.

On the other hand, radio's collective cume, which back in 2000 was 94% of all persons, is now around 89%. There has been a loss of abut 55 to 6% in radio's "circulation" but (depending on the measurement system) over half to nearly 2/3 in the average weekly times spent listening.

This is true in every market, whether it is a Top 10 PMM one or # 225 and a diary market.

 

[Buddy Shula]

That is totally wrong, Buddy.

What is decreasing is the number of hours of weekly listening by the average listener. In 2000, the PUR, or "persons using radio" 6 AM to Midnight, M-S, was around 19, meaning that 19% of all people were listening on average. Today, the figure in the pre-Coronavirus period of "Fall" and the first months of "Spring" was around 7% with a variance of +/- 1 in the markets I look at. That is, of course, PPM.

Due to rounding, the PUR in diary markets is a bit higher, but it is still off by about half of what it was 20 years ago.

On the other hand, radio's collective cume, which back in 2000 was 94% of all persons, is now around 89%. There has been a loss of abut 55 to 6% in radio's "circulation" but (depending on the measurement system) over half to nearly 2/3 in the average weekly times spent listening.

This is true in every market, whether it is a Top 10 PMM one or # 225 and a diary market.

The “ average listeners” have become less. There is more fragmentation. Nielson has some serious methodology problems. Nielson has to say radio is doing ok or they will be out of business.

Whether I have high or low ratings, I am totally skeptical of Nielson now. I ask the people at Nielson themselves. They don’t even know how to explain things.

In my opinion, there are far less people who listen to terrestrial radio and it’s digital platforms than there has ever been.

 

[TheBigA]

Nielson has to say radio is doing ok or they will be out of business.

That's really an overstatement of the facts. Radio measurement is a very small part of Nielsen's business. They also measure digital and social media. The radio numbers they give are primarily done for advertisers, not radio companies. Here's a look at their annual report to investors:

https://s1.q4cdn.com/199638165/files/doc_financials/2019/ar/Nielsen-10-K-859000.pdf

In addition, all of Nielsen's measurements are checked and certified by an independent agency.

 

[JBraddock]

In 2000, the PUR, or "persons using radio" 6 AM to Midnight, M-S, was around 19, meaning that 19% of all people were listening on average. Today, the figure in the pre-Coronavirus period of "Fall" and the first months of "Spring" was around 7% with a variance of +/- 1 in the markets I look at. That is, of course, PPM.

On the other hand, radio's collective cume, which back in 2000 was 94% of all persons, is now around 89%.

I'm having trouble squaring these two statements. 7% of a market's population is 'using' radio, but the cume is 89% 'of all persons.' Can you elaborate?

 

[b-turner]

If I might try to put words in David's mouth, I believe he is saying of the total population, at any given time, only 7% are listening to radio but over a week's time that cumulative total is 89% of the population that listens to radio during any given week, statistically.

 

[davideduardo]

If I might try to put words in David's mouth, I believe he is saying of the total population, at any given time, only 7% are listening to radio but over a week's time that cumulative total is 89% of the population that listens to radio during any given week, statistically.

Yes, correct.

That is an average on the "at any given time" since, of course, in weekday mornings more people listen and on Saturday evening far less do.

 

[davideduardo]

I'm having trouble squaring these two statements. 7% of a market's population is 'using' radio, but the cume is 89% 'of all persons.' Can you elaborate?

For some amount of time during the week, 89% of people use radio. But at any specific moment, the average is 7% of all people listening at that moment.

One is the actual listening (average) and the other is the total listening.

Rating /Share/AQH Persons are three ways of saying how many people are listening at a given moment. Cume is how many total people have listened during the week, but not all at the same time.

 

[davideduardo]

The “ average listeners” have become less. There is more fragmentation.

Yes, the source of the fragmentation is new media. Streaming, principally.

But every new "system" in the last 30 years has affected all traditional media. Video games affected radio and TV usage starting at least 30 years ago. Cable TV with multiple cable only channel options increased TV viewership but reduced local channels and even radio usage... and that began in earnest in the 80's.

Nielson has some serious methodology problems. Nielson has to say radio is doing ok or they will be out of business.

Nielsen has no methodology problems. They do have a sample issue where results would be more stable if a much bigger sample were employed, but stations will not pay for a bigger sample. Just to make a reduction of one Standard Error, they have to quadruple the sample. Nobody will pay for that, so we get a sample that can be erratic, particularly with low rated stations, but ad agencies accept that as they generally don't buy low rated stations anyway.

Whether I have high or low ratings, I am totally skeptical of Nielson now. I ask the people at Nielson themselves. They don’t even know how to explain things.

I have never found any difficulty talking to anyone at Nielsen, right up to the executive suite.

In my opinion, there are far less people who listen to terrestrial radio and it’s digital platforms than there has ever been.

The Media Ratings Council disagrees:

http://mediaratingcouncil.org/

They are a group, principally from the media buying side, that was formed nearly 60 years ago after the congressional hearings into TV ratings to examine and certify (if warranted) ratings for electronic media. Since they principally represent the buying function, they are quite thorough in their examination of the products offered that measure media.

Radio stations and groups only buy ratings because agencies trust them and use them to place ad buys. Otherwise, stations would simply do the old small market "buy my station and watch new customers come in" variants to attract advertisers.

 

[davideduardo]

That's really an overstatement of the facts. Radio measurement is a very small part of Nielsen's business. They also measure digital and social media. The radio numbers they give are primarily done for advertisers, not radio companies. Here's a look at their annual report to investors:

Key is this, "Our Media segment provides viewership and listening data and analytics primarily to the media and advertising industries across the television,radio,print,online,digital and mobile viewing and listening platforms.For the year ended December31, 2019,revenuesfromourMediasegmentrepresentedapproximately53%of our consolidated revenues"

But even more revealing is the heading to that paragraph:

"What Consumers Watch"

Not "what consumers watch and listen to". Just "watch". The revenue from that division is from video. Audio is a tiny segment.

When Nielsen bought Arbitron for just over $1 billion, the Nielsen market cap was over $18 billion. That gives an idea of the value of Arbitron within Nielsen. And the principal value of Arbitron, many of us believe, was the patented technology of the PPM which can be used for measurement of any electronic media segment, not just radio.

 

[Buddy Shula]

Yes, the source of the fragmentation is new media. Streaming, principally.

But every new "system" in the last 30 years has affected all traditional media. Video games affected radio and TV usage starting at least 30 years ago. Cable TV with multiple cable only channel options increased TV viewership but reduced local channels and even radio usage... and that began in earnest in the 80's.



Nielsen has no methodology problems. They do have a sample issue where results would be more stable if a much bigger sample were employed, but stations will not pay for a bigger sample. Just to make a reduction of one Standard Error, they have to quadruple the sample. Nobody will pay for that, so we get a sample that can be erratic, particularly with low rated stations, but ad agencies accept that as they generally don't buy low rated stations anyway.



I have never found any difficulty talking to anyone at Nielsen, right up to the executive suite.



The Media Ratings Council disagrees:

http://mediaratingcouncil.org/

They are a group, principally from the media buying side, that was formed nearly 60 years ago after the congressional hearings into TV ratings to examine and certify (if warranted) ratings for electronic media. Since they principally represent the buying function, they are quite thorough in their examination of the products offered that measure media.

Radio stations and groups only buy ratings because agencies trust them and use them to place ad buys. Otherwise, stations would simply do the old small market "buy my station and watch new customers come in" variants to attract advertisers.

I don’t care what The Media Council says. Ask anyone. Ask waiters. Ask drive thru reps. Ask grocery shoppers. I do all of that. Radio is on the bottom of the list. The first thing most people say is that they really don’t listen to the radio.

 

[TheBigA]

The first thing most people say is that they really don’t listen to the radio.

How can you look your customers in the eye knowing that?

 

[CTListener]

How can you look your customers in the eye knowing that?

Isn't being able to do that sort of thing a big part of what makes a successful salesman?

 

[davideduardo]

Isn't being able to do that sort of thing a big part of what makes a successful salesman?

No, a successful salesman in a smaller market can't lie because they live on repeat, renewal business.

A good salesperson know to keep expectations in reason. They know to turn down business that does not fit the station.

On many occasions I have sent clients to stations more fitting their product or company; the goodwill on occasion produces more referral business than you lose!

 

[b-turner]

Let me amplify on David's remarks as I am a seller of radio commercials/campaigns. My job is to work for the continued success of my client. That means I get to know their business and present only that which is right for my client and at a price they are comfortable with. All I have is integrity. My business comes when clients know me and come to trust me. It takes time to develop these relationships. There's no pushing spot packages, no high pressure, no fast talking. I offer written presentations where I explain why I believe it is right for my client and how I think it will work. I typically sign up clients on annual contracts. And it takes a good year to finally get to where your clients fully trust you in most cases. I'm no incredible salesperson, just slow and steady winning clients one by one. When I sign a client up, they normally don't leave because I put in the work to keep them. If you wonder if this works, I had a client last week ask me if I'd advise her on her budgets for all media for one of her big annual sales. I made some suggestions. It's nice to be trusted to the point of dictating dollars spent in other media!

 

[tbolt909]

I don’t care what The Media Council says. Ask anyone. Ask waiters. Ask drive thru reps. Ask grocery shoppers. I do all of that. Radio is on the bottom of the list. The first thing most people say is that they really don’t listen to the radio.

This type of research is not endorsed by David Eduardo. Asking random people if they listen to Radio (Or why they DON'T listen) is not permitted. Since Buffalo still uses the diary ratings system, maybe people are saying what they USED to listen to 20 years ago.

If Buddy is mostly asking people under 45, the response he gets seems reasonable. People have lots of reasons for not using Radio anymore...

 

[davideduardo]

This type of research is not endorsed by David Eduardo.

A tiny sample that is not representative of the whole population is simply idle conversation.

I could mix leaves of plants from my backyard, drink them and think I was immune from COVID, too.

Neither process is scientific. And statistics is a science... a unique one, in fact as it is the only science where error is both permissible and calculable.

[/QUOTE] Asking random people if they listen to Radio (Or why they DON'T listen) is not permitted. Since Buffalo still uses the diary ratings system, maybe people are saying what they USED to listen to 20 years ago. [/QUOTE]

Have you ever seen a real diary? They are daily logs of listening by daypart and hour.

And Nielsen calls to confirm receipt. They call after the first day. They call after the weekend. They call to make sure it is filled and returned.

If Buddy is mostly asking people under 45, the response he gets seems reasonable. People have lots of reasons for not using Radio anymore...

Yes, they use it less. But in 18-34, radio is only used about 2% less on a cume basis than by 55 and over.

A lot has changed, including the loss of passion for radio and the distaste for jocks and the like by younger demos but radio is still the greatest reach medium in the US.

 

[Buddy Shula]

Let me amplify on David's remarks as I am a seller of radio commercials/campaigns. My job is to work for the continued success of my client. That means I get to know their business and present only that which is right for my client and at a price they are comfortable with. All I have is integrity. My business comes when clients know me and come to trust me. It takes time to develop these relationships. There's no pushing spot packages, no high pressure, no fast talking. I offer written presentations where I explain why I believe it is right for my client and how I think it will work. I typically sign up clients on annual contracts. And it takes a good year to finally get to where your clients fully trust you in most cases. I'm no incredible salesperson, just slow and steady winning clients one by one. When I sign a client up, they normally don't leave because I put in the work to keep them. If you wonder if this works, I had a client last week ask me if I'd advise her on her budgets for all media for one of her big annual sales. I made some suggestions. It's nice to be trusted to the point of dictating dollars spent in other media!

I know all of this. I own radio stations and an ad agency.

Relationships are everything.

If you do the right campaign, message , frequency in radio , it will work, but if their were 100 people listening 5 years ago, there are 70 today.

Trust is key . If the clients trusts you, you could literally start your own agency, which i fully suggest

 

[Buddy Shula]

How can you look your customers in the eye knowing that?

Because some people still listen. Those are the ones we target. BTW, My ad agency places far more dollars in TV than in radio. Far more. I look at my customers straight in the eye and give them the truth. That's why I have such long term customers. My customers have more success than ever using a 80% TV / 20% radio strategy

 

[four4rock]

I don’t care what The Media Council says. Ask anyone. Ask waiters. Ask drive thru reps. Ask grocery shoppers. I do all of that. Radio is on the bottom of the list. The first thing most people say is that they really don’t listen to the radio.

And then what is it that you say, ask, do? Hearing that they 'really don't listen to radio" is kinda meaningless, no?

 

[Buddy Shula]

And then what is it that you say, ask, do? Hearing that they 'really don't listen to radio" is kinda meaningless, no?

I pretend I am from out of town, and what radio station they listen too. Most say “ I don’t listen to radio”. Try it your self and see what happens

Please understand, I realize people listen to radio. That’s why I bought a station. But I also understood then and now that people listen to a lot of other things too. I am not saying radio is dead. But it is going that way.

Which is the exact reason I have a successful ad agency. We put together campaigns based on client goals. Sometimes it includes WECK, sometimes it includes other stations, and not WECK. Often it includes TV. I can buy an average quarter hour of 30,000 viewers on broadcast TV for $200 a spot. It is far more cost effective than most radio. In WECKS best daypart, we have an average quarter hour of 5500 listeners. For comparison, WBEN in that same time frame has about 8500. However, WECK is priced 10x less.

Younger people are not preferring radio as their hot media for sure. That’s why I picked an oldies format.

In my opinion, my agency has unlimited growth potential. WECK has finite growth potential, as do the other radio stations.

My agency has some of the biggest clients in Buffalo, who need more than just WECK. That is why leaving ENTERCOM was so great for me. For years, my clients were asking me, “can you buy my tv, can you buy my other radio, can you buy billboards”?

Now we do all of that. If it’s a 50 plus buy, we usually buy WECK, WBEN AND WHTT. If it is a younger buy, our strategy changes and we buy pandora, or OTT television or podcasts.

It all depends. By the way, I am not just saying radio listenership has gone down, so has TV, print. Even billboard viewing has gone down during this covid era.

I do what is best for my client. It has worked for me for 40 years.