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Pre Election 6+ Ratings
- Thread starter TheBigA
- Start date
The Wolf dropped all local talent (except for mornings), which could explain why The Bull has taken the lead. I feel like Entercom has put a nail in The Wolf coffin.
Hits 1061 (aka Jubal) is coming for Movin as the heat is on. I expect that Hits will overtake Movin in 2021.
Jubal sounds much happier at Hits than he did at Movin.
Time to kill Kube again. It will never be the same as it was before.
I don't know about that. The Wolf had a 3.2 in March with a full staff of local talent. They now have a 3.1. That's not much of a difference.
Yep, Jubal was the magic potion for 106.1. Been a long time since they were nearly touching a 4 in the ratings. And an election/coronavirus bump for KOMO the past couple months too. Wonder how many are listening through the FM 97.7.
Predictions on the holiday race? I bet KRWM wins for the umpteenth year in a row, with a 10 to 10.5 rating. KSWD will be right behind them.
Predictions on the holiday race? I bet KRWM wins for the umpteenth year in a row, with a 10 to 10.5 rating. KSWD will be right behind them.
#1: If you're referring to 6+ numbers, remember that their audience is 55+.
#2: It's an AM station
#3: Their audience is dying over time. Literally.
KNUC is going to be just fine. They are advertising significantly more than "The Wolf," they have some of the best live/local hosts around the clock, and they have one of the strongest morning shows in Seattle (talent wise). The strongest piece of the Entercom Seattle chess set is by far KISW, which they have wisely left alone.
All of those are true, but still, to see a two-thirds drop over four months is pretty bad.
Same thing happened with KROQ. It's hard to rebuild an audience after years of complacency.
Let's see a few more books. The margin of error among stations under about a 1.5 share is huge, and the lower the average, the higher the margin of error. A .5 is a 1.0 is a 0.2.
Another thing to consider is a level of participation when it comes to PPM. David could probably speak to this more.
Considering the majority of KIXI listeners probably fall under the senior citizen category, I think it's safe to assume that folks in assisted living or senior living situations, are probably less likely to be approached by Nielsen, let alone understand what participating involves and sign up. That, and getting back to my point #3; the Seattle area, particularly East Side, suffered a lot of senior deaths from COVID. That assisted living place in Kirkland was one of the first in the nation with a huge number of deaths. This sounds weird, but if your sample on a good month is a .7 share, it would be easy to imagine your share would drop noticeably if even 10% of your audience died, literally.
This is a complex question.
The PPM study is not a random probability sample like the diary survey is. It is a panel, recruited specifically to mirror the total population.
If 65 and over are 20% of the population is over 65, then 20% of the panel is of that age group. The subsets are also proportional by gender and income and county of residence and other stratification variables.
On the other hand, the panel is not proportional by occupation or retirement status or residence in a hospital or such. If a panelist does not participate for a few days, they are contacted. If they don't respond, they are dropped. But they are quickly replaced with another person from the same set of qualifications; Nielsen is constantly recruiting and they try to "immediately" replace drop-out. In fact, normally about 6% to 8% of the panel drops each month. Some have reached the end of the max of two years. Some are dropped because a member of the dwelling unit fails to comply. And other just get tired or don't like it any more. So they are recruiting all the time.
If, in this case, portions of the population die in significant numbers, that will not affect the ratings as Nielsen bases their estimates on projection of the panel into the universe as determined by annual Census Bureau updates as reported via private demographers. So if a group is reduced, you won't see the effects until Fall of next year. The panel will continue to be based on last year's population estimates and won't be changed until this year's data is released sometime next year. There is always about a year's worth of delays.
That said, it's never perfect. it's an approximation. And that is all we expect.
Generally a panel is a family or household unit, not a single person; however, persons who do live alone are recruited but there is not a family size quota. But the object is to have the right number of people in each age and gender and ethnicity, not specific occupations.
And the data used to recruit is less likely to have extended care patients listed as that, like a college dorm, is transitory. The survey uses broad strokes and your questions are very specific. Your assumption, though, is correct. There are people who won't be approached and there are some that won't accept. There are transients and homeless persons or those who change residence often who can´t be reached. And I am pretty sure that Mr Bezos or Mr Gates and most of their close friends don't join the panel, either.
Ratings are a sample, not a census. While in elections, a tiny fraction of a percent can separate winning and losing, in radio ad buys wobbles of a whole share point are common and ad buyers know that they are getting, as I said, an approximation... a metric... a way of tagging prices to delivery.
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