Radio Predictions for 2021

[Kelly A]

My prediction:
Sirius XM will continue to offer music programming vastly superior to that available from a scan of the FM dial.

That's a personal opinion, not a prediction. FM still has 98% of the 'radio'-based music listening. The demise of FM was predicted when Sirius and XM were launched back in the 90's for very similar reasons. It's been over twenty years, and the predictions haven't happened yet.

Direct listener support + underwriting is the way to do radio. Works wonders for K-Love and many NPR affiliated stations.

Commercial radio relies on advertising. That hasn't, nor will it change in 2021. The difference will gradually become that station groups like Cumulus and iHeart will continue to redirect expenses to content creation and quality of programming, from local studios, offices, and elimination of back-office costs. The expensive quality talent and programming will be featured nationwide through market -by-market transmission sites and steaming to Alexa and Google devices.

FM radio will continue to be burdened by insufficient investment in programming & air talent resources, laziness when it comes to research, and executives who are more concerned with their personal wealth than the long-term longevity of the companies they are tasked with running.

As David mentioned, success isn't directly attributed to how much money one spends. It's where the resources are being spent that matters. If local studios, offices, and their associated personnel expenses are eliminated, there are more resources to be spent on research and content development.

 

[boombox4]

Sirius/XM will be okay, even if another recession hits, as those who can afford it now will be able to afford it during a downturn. Even during the Great Depression there were people who bought radios and could afford them. In this day of cord cutting and increasing numbers of people scraping to get by, I don't see Sirius necessarily growing, but I don't think they'll shrink, either, for the reason I mentioned above.

Streaming may be another matter, as there is always the issue with royalties, which could conceivably go up (one major musical artist was recently interviewed, complaining about the low digital royalties now). Looking more than one year out from now, if the economy dips, how much are stations or other streaming entities going to be able to pay for increased royalties? I don't see the trend going completely online until the economy boosts back up to the point that your average working class person can afford to pay for streaming services.

 

[Don CT]

That's a personal opinion, not a prediction. FM still has 98% of the 'radio'-based music listening. The demise of FM was predicted when Sirius and XM were launched back in the 90's for very similar reasons. It's been over twenty years, and the predictions haven't happened yet.


Commercial radio relies on advertising. That hasn't, nor will it change in 2021. The difference will gradually become that station groups like Cumulus and iHeart will continue to redirect expenses to content creation and quality of programming, from local studios, offices, and elimination of back-office costs. The expensive quality talent and programming will be featured nationwide through market -by-market transmission sites and steaming to Alexa and Google devices.

As David mentioned, success isn't directly attributed to how much money one spends. It's where the resources are being spent that matters. If local studios, offices, and their associated personnel expenses are eliminated, there are more resources to be spent on research and content development.

FM isn't going anywhere, however SiriusXM is a superior product. The same could be said for HBO having better content than broadcast. It doesn't mean the demise of the networks.

 

[TheBigA]

FM isn't going anywhere, however SiriusXM is a superior product. The same could be said for HBO having better content than broadcast. It doesn't mean the demise of the networks.

It depends on what you want. For most people, FM is just fine.

 

[CaliRadioFan]

English Language hosted or hybrid English-Korean hosted KPOP Music will be FM's 'bright and shiny' format for 2021

 

[davideduardo]

That's a personal opinion, not a prediction. FM still has 98% of the 'radio'-based music listening. The demise of FM was predicted when Sirius and XM were launched back in the 90's for very similar reasons. It's been over twenty years, and the predictions haven't happened yet.

No, it is more like 92% to 94% depending on the market. Think of satellite as "a big, big single station" that beats the individual station in each market by differing margins. In smaller markets, where there are less exciting radio stations with way too many ads, the percentage tends to be higher.

Commercial radio relies on advertising. That hasn't, nor will it change in 2021. The difference will gradually become that station groups like Cumulus and iHeart will continue to redirect expenses to content creation and quality of programming, from local studios, offices, and elimination of back-office costs. The expensive quality talent and programming will be featured nationwide through market -by-market transmission sites and steaming to Alexa and Google devices.

The problem is that many groups are thinking that evening and weekends are good for nothing, so they automate them. Listeners who find that unappealing in the evening won't be there in the morning, either.

As David mentioned, success isn't directly attributed to how much money one spends. It's where the resources are being spent that matters. If local studios, offices, and their associated personnel expenses are eliminated, there are more resources to be spent on research and content development.

But I don't see them doing that. I see just a bunch of robot stations, with no talent in any daypart except mornings. That makes them like "satellite radio with lots of commercials".

 

[davideduardo]

It depends on what you want. For most people, FM is just fine.

Then why is total PUR (Persons Using Rado) down over 60% since 2000?

 

[TheBigA]

Then why is total PUR (Persons Using Rado) down over 60% since 2000?

I don't know. You tell me.

 

[TheBigA]

I see just a bunch of robot stations, with no talent in any daypart except mornings. That makes them like "satellite radio with lots of commercials".

The major groups are providing HOSTED dayparts. Some of those national hosts have more personality than the local hosts they replaced. And as far as comparison to satellite, yes there are commercials, but no there is no monthly bill. What's wrong with offering customers options?

 

[Rick Rose 2.0]

It makes zero sense to move the Fan to 103.7 due call letters on 105.3fm. KRLD 1080 might pop up on 103.7 but to put it on 105.3 with the sports format moving would be more trouble than its worth. A few years ago 105.3 was known as KYNG, KOAX, KLLI and many other call signs so it could pick up KVIL to keep them alive and KRLD moves to 103.7.

 

[Kelly A]

No, it is more like 92% to 94% depending on the market. Think of satellite as "a big, big single station" that beats the individual station in each market by differing margins. In smaller markets, where there are less exciting radio stations with way too many ads, the percentage tends to be higher.


The problem is that many groups are thinking that evening and weekends are good for nothing, so they automate them. Listeners who find that unappealing in the evening won't be there in the morning, either.

But I don't see them doing that. I see just a bunch of robot stations, with no talent in any daypart except mornings. That makes them like "satellite radio with lots of commercials".

Overall, SXM's estimated penetration for satellite and streaming is 2.3% of the total market. Most of that is mobile listening.

As BigA mentioned, the major groups intend on hosting all shows, not just AM/PM Drive. Sure, those will be tracked, but even you've said that quality wins. Even a midday or weekend host would probably be better from a quality perspective of the listener.

 

[Don CT]

Overall, SXM's estimated penetration for satellite and streaming is 2.3% of the total market. Most of that is mobile listening.

As BigA mentioned, the major groups intend on hosting all shows, not just AM/PM Drive. Sure, those will be tracked, but even you've said that quality wins. Even a midday or weekend host would probably be better from a quality perspective of the listener.

People who want music don't care who is hosting a certain show.

 

[vchimpanzee]

Not a prediction, but I'd like to see Sirius/XM bring back their standards channel. Not the same, but I think I've suggested they take over the music collection of WHVN Charlotte. That station's collection mixes real standards with soft oldies, but it's the reverse of America's Best Music where oldies rather than standards are in the majority. Depending on how you define standards, WHVN is either nearly all standards or mostly standards. But in Stardust's early days, certain songs that might be considered oldies were included and so they're probably standards anyway.

 

[Kelly A]

People who want music don't care who is hosting a certain show.

Sure, but if one provides a host around the music, a talented and relevant host is always better than just by presence alone. That's why this whole discussion of having locally-based talent is, or isn't important. Back when radio was the only game in town it may have been. With all the competition for ears, most available via a phone or home-speaker, quality wins over locality.

It's somewhat ironic how this thread as turned into a discussion about SXM, when they have such a small piece of the total radio pie. That, and 99% of their music air talent are tracked. Yet still, some on this board who claim that local talent is so important, are the first to sing the praises of a form of radio (or streaming) with zero local talent.

 

[Don CT]

Sure, but if one provides a host around the music, a talented and relevant host is always better than just by presence alone. That's why this whole discussion of having locally-based talent is, or isn't important. Back when radio was the only game in town it may have been. With all the competition for ears, most available via a phone or home-speaker, quality wins over locality.

It's somewhat ironic how this thread as turned into a discussion about SXM, when they have such a small piece of the total radio pie. That, and 99% of their music air talent are tracked. Yet still, some on this board who claim that local talent is so important, are the first to sing the praises of a form of radio (or streaming) with zero local talent.

People listen to the radio for the music, there is a bigger selection of music on Sirius.

If I want rock I have no choice but satellite radio.

 

[Ryan Williams]

It makes zero sense to move the Fan to 103.7 due call letters on 105.3fm. KRLD 1080 might pop up on 103.7 but to put it on 105.3 with the sports format moving would be more trouble than its worth. A few years ago 105.3 was known as KYNG, KOAX, KLLI and many other call signs so it could pick up KVIL to keep them alive and KRLD moves to 103.7.

Call signs don't really matter very much. Listeners don't know or care in most cases. It does have a minor benefit of making the brand more congruent and consistent, especially for back office type uses where there is a list of call signs in the same group. But it doesn't matter that much.

I do wonder why Entercom has not grabbed KDFN for 105.3. It was in use when The Fan first launched but the station that held the call sign was deleted in 2017, so they should be available now.

 

[Radio Nerd]

Anyone think Cumulus will completely retire the NASH FM and NASH icon branding this year?

 

[DJboutit3]

Good amount of FM translators and lower AM station will call it quits there is no money running them no days

 

[blackgold]

The IHeart media consortium will be broken up and will spin off their stations to local groups. They'll be able to do a better job than the conglomerate can.

 

[TheBigA]

The IHeart media consortium will be broken up and will spin off their stations to local groups. They'll be able to do a better job than the conglomerate can.

Except no local groups have any money to buy anything. Otherwise they would have bought WPLJ and WRQX instead of EMF.

We see this wishful thinking all the time. Nobody is forcing iHeart to spin off stations. Even after bankruptcy.