February Ratings (BC - Before Cluster****)

[tbolt909]

Latest Nielsen ratings have 97 Rock slipping from a 6.3 to 6.2. These numbers obviously don't include the Lederman fiasco. WBUF slid further down to a 2.5. The switch from JACK may be an exercise in futility.

Alternative Buffalo is now consistently below a 1 share. At least Entercom has a new name. Audacy?
Translation = Listeners Not Required...

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Persons 12+ February

There seems to be some slippage in February, with the top stations off a smidge here and a smidge there when compared to the January report.

A more defined picture takes form when looking back three or four months, where some stations have actually seen reasonable gains. The Breeze for example, is up 1.3 shares; WGR, up 2 shares; the Edge up half a share when compared to November 2020.
But... of 15 stations having a 1 share or greater, only five stations (WBFO, WBLK, WHTT, WMSX and WNED) are up January '21 to February '21.

True, some stations are off month-to-month. A few stations, 97 Rock, WBUF, and to a lesser degree WECK, are off both January '21 to February '21 as well as November '20 to February '21. Among stations having a 1 share or greater, seven stations are down, February '21 to November '20. It's somewhat surprising to see WBUF trending down from November '20 to February '21 as well as January '21 to February '21.

As to consistency, WECK, as well as WBFO, may be the most consistent performers.


The cellar dwellers are consistent too. Consistently bad.

 

[davideduardo]

Persons 12+ February

There seems to be some slippage in February, with the top stations off a smidge here and a smidge there when compared to the January report.

A more defined picture takes form when looking back three or four months, where some stations have actually seen reasonable gains. The Breeze for example, is up 1.3 shares; WGR, up 2 shares; the Edge up half a share when compared to November 2020.
But... of 15 stations having a 1 share or greater, only five stations (WBFO, WBLK, WHTT, WMSX and WNED) are up January '21 to February '21.

True, some stations are off month-to-month. A few stations, 97 Rock, WBUF, and to a lesser degree WECK, are off both January '21 to February '21 as well as November '20 to February '21. Among stations having a 1 share or greater, seven stations are down, February '21 to November '20. It's somewhat surprising to see WBUF trending down from November '20 to February '21 as well as January '21 to February '21.

It's really inaccurate to define "slippage" based on share. If you look at the diary markets in general, the AQH listening as reflected in rating and not share is still measurably below January and February of 2020.

It's also important to note that, unlike the PPM, "January" is actually November, December and January as each "monthly" is really a three month average.

Comparing pre-pandemic months with pandemic months is, of course, a risky proposition to begin with.

 

[davideduardo]

Latest Nielsen ratings have 97 Rock slipping from a 6.3 to 6.2.

Anything within a 0.5 or so up or down is not "slipping". The margin of error, calculable with the Nielson nomograph on their site, shows that even large shares can safely be up or down by 10% or more without being significant. Among lower rated stations, wobbles of 30%, 40% or even 50% may not mean anything.

That is why agencies and buying services do not use share to measure a buy's efficiency.

 

[Lake Country Radio]

In furtherance of the Alt Buffalo rating... Who is behind the scenes putting life support on this dying brand of music? How can you underperform for over 7 years and remain viable as a radio station? This plug should've been pulled faster then the WBEN simulcast.

 

[davideduardo]

In furtherance of the Alt Buffalo rating... Who is behind the scenes putting life support on this dying brand of music? How can you underperform for over 7 years and remain viable as a radio station? This plug should've been pulled faster then the WBEN simulcast.

I believe that several of the local Buffalo residents have mentioned that the station got some considerable (considering its potential) revenue from events. That, of course, disappeared last year. But there are a fair number of cases of niche formats that can pick up lifestyle revenue when their signal won't allow them to compete more directly.

 

[tbolt909]

Anything within a 0.5 or so up or down is not "slipping". The margin of error, calculable with the Nielson nomograph on their site, shows that even large shares can safely be up or down by 10% or more without being significant. Among lower rated stations, wobbles of 30%, 40% or even 50% may not mean anything.

That is why agencies and buying services do not use share to measure a buy's efficiency.

Ratings were "Flat" is more accurate. WBUF has clearly not seen significant growth since the flip from JACK to Classic Rock.

Will the 97 Rock Morning Show fiasco cause agencies to stop buying the station? Cumulus is certainly concerned about that going forward.

You're right that a station with a 1.5 share can drop to a 0.8 with no consequence.
Half of Nothing = Nothing...

 

[Rusty Bridges]

In editing my original post, one sentence was omitted. "It's Persons 12+, don't get carried away."

 

[Lake Country Radio]

Crises come and crises go. 97 Rock won't be affected by the recent controversy. I don't think Jar Trophies and Dan The Man Custom T-shirts and Embroidery cares

 

[MarkW]

WBUF is clearly hemorrhaging; the initial "pop" came from curiosity listening. The audience evidently is getting bored with what they're hearing.

Perhaps filling morning drive with a canned morning show from Grand Rapids wasn't such a good idea. Perhaps a playlist featuring zero recent music despite promising "Everything that Rocks" wasn't such a good move, either.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Is this where tbolt advocates bringing back "The Lake" format on 92.9?

 

[TheBigA]

The audience evidently is getting bored with what they're hearing.

You're saying they were less bored with unhosted Jack all day? No currents with Jack either.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

You're saying they were less bored with unhosted Jack all day? No currents with Jack either.

"Jack FM ... we'll start playing currents when today's music doesn't suck." Some of those snarky, self-abusing liners were pretty good. They demonstrated wry personality, albeit canned. "Jack FM may be shallow, unoriginal and boring, but that's only because we know what you're looking for in a relationship."

WBUF is clearly hemorrhaging; the initial "pop" came from curiosity listening. The audience evidently is getting bored with what they're hearing.

Could be WBUF had a crappy month of diary distribution. The Edge was flat/down 0.2 and 97 was flat/down 0.1. Bad 'month' for rock? Bad phase for the moon and stars? It's said a station could lose every listener 18-44, own 45-54; look lousy Persons 12+ but strong Persons 25-54. Slight exaggeration, but a kernel of truth.

See Eduardo's comments earlier in this thread regarding Shares vs. AQH Persons and Rating

 

[tbolt909]

Could be WBUF had a crappy month of diary distribution.

Bad radio stations always like to blame the ratings methodology and not their crappy product. This re-hashed Classic Rock format is worse than JACK. It's embarrassing with shows like "Beer & Wings", "Church of Crowley..?" What is that?

WBUF -- Pray For It All To End...

 

[davideduardo]

Bad radio stations always like to blame the ratings methodology and not their crappy product. This re-hashed Classic Rock format is worse than JACK. It's embarrassing with shows like "Beer & Wings", "Church of Crowley..?" What is that?

As I have mentioned before, in a conversation years ago with then head of Arbitron Owen Charlebois, he said that there are three types of ratings subscribers:

First, the ones who go up, which is, of course, due to great management and programming.
Second, those who stay the same who don't say anything.
And finally, those who went down because the Arbitron methodology or sample is bad.

Nobody ever blames the ratings for going up!

 

[davideduardo]

Could be WBUF had a crappy month of diary distribution. The Edge was flat/down 0.2 and 97 was flat/down 0.1. Bad 'month' for rock? Bad phase for the moon and stars? It's said a station could lose every listener 18-44, own 45-54; look lousy Persons 12+ but strong Persons 25-54. Slight exaggeration, but a kernel of truth.

Remember that diary market reports are now "official" each month, but they are not "monthlies". The diary system is based on a rolling 12 week average, so each book covers three months.

And, as mentioned, those 0.3, 0.4 and even 0.5 variations in the higher share stations are meaningless unless sustained book after book.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Remember that diary market reports are now "official" each month, but they are not "monthlies". The diary system is based on a rolling 12 week average, so each book covers three months.

And, as mentioned, those 0.3, 0.4 and even 0.5 variations in the higher share stations are meaningless unless sustained book after book.

No argument. That noted, what would a "3.1" constitute? A "higher share," mid share or lower share station? Going from a 3.1 to a 2.5 Persons 12+ (-19%) seems to indicate something went awry during a four week period within the rolling 12 week period. A good month (perhaps November) dropped off, replaced by a weak month (December.) Maybe every 65+ listener disappeared, or whatever number of Women who listened tuned out, yet Men remain strong. As noted earlier, "It's Persons 12, let's not get carried away." Then again... somethin' happened.

 

[davideduardo]

No argument. That noted, what would a "3.1" constitute? A "higher share," mid share or lower share station? Going from a 3.1 to a 2.5 Persons 12+ (-19%) seems to indicate something went awry during a four week period within the rolling 12 week period. A good month (perhaps November) dropped off, replaced by a weak month (December.) Maybe every 65+ listener disappeared, or whatever number of Women who listened tuned out, yet Men remain strong. As noted earlier, "It's Persons 12, let's not get carried away." Then again... somethin' happened.

First, unless the downward motion is repeated, even a 2.5 and a 3.1 may actually be "no change". Obviously, it makes management nervous and they will be standing around the computer in 4 weeks to see if that was just a "low side" wobble.

Your ideas on possibilities are all quite possible, and there are even more, such as the classic difficulty in getting a balanced diary sample right after the holidays. Nielsen is a form of Russian roulette with perhaps three chambers loaded.

 

[tbolt909]

Did WBUF do a promotional blitz to advertise the "New" format? It would have been a waste of money anyway.

Reality is that most people will not be interested in this painfully tired product. The only ones that might are listening to 97 Rock. The best that WBUF can hope for is to take 1 or 2 shares away. IF that happens, both stations will have 4 shares with no new revenue.

There is no NEW audience for this programming. Plodding along the same worn out groove gets you nowhere. Question for Mr. E. ---If someone returns a Nielsen diary and says "I do not listen to any Commercial Radio", is that comment noted or just tossed out.? Asking for a comatose friend...

 

[TheBigA]

There is no NEW audience for this programming.

Who said they're looking for a NEW audience?