Not every technology that is 100 years old is useless. 60 hz AC power and the electric motor are 100 year-old technology.
My point was to PTBoardOp, that his suggestion that if only someone would build expensive and modern technology based AM stations, somehow a revival would be possible. Things like physics and consumer habits would argue against that view.
That said, although it's true that AM radio has been losing audience, it still has roughly one quarter the cume of FM radio (58 million AM versus 235 million FM listeners weekly), according to the latest stats I could find. So it's not dead yet.
If you owned an AM station(s), that's a increasing and alarming trend. As myself and other's have mentioned, the cost of running an AM with dying (literally) audiences is a tough reality. Some owners have turned in their licenses because the property value of the transmitter site is more valuable than owning the station. Some have thrown caution to the wind and gone full MA3 mode. Whereas I applaud their pioneering spirit, it's not going to change consumer habits of relying on their smartphone and smartspeakers for aural news and entertainment.
By the time AM radio is completely gone -- maybe 15-20 years hence, after the ethnic AM stations migrate completely to FM or the internet, FM will start being vacated for the internet.
I don't think there's a particular tipping point where the AM band goes silent once and for all. For some very small markets, AM may be all there is. But just like everywhere else, as the population ages-out in those areas, there will be little choice for small market AM station licensees but to close up shop. Owning AM stations is riskier than opening a restaurant.
It's too bad that digital on AM wasn't introduced earlier on, it might have made a long term difference for the medium, or at least extended its life for a couple decades.
And the blame for that aims squarely at AM broadcasters and radio nerds. Back when the IBOC standard was being chosen for AM, the cries and objections from duffer's claiming AM ain't broke, delayed any progress on having full digital AM as an option. Now here we are: AM is the gramophone of quality, relegated to a number of formats you can count on one hand. Consumers have moved on to other more convenient devices. Not that consumer habits wouldn't have changed anyway, but the shortsightedness of those who said AM was fine the way it was, ultimately are being proven dead wrong.
As it is now, OTA radio has already seen the future
I disagree. OTA radio is still popular. Saw a stat the other day, that even Millenialls and Gen-Z car buyers, insist on having a radio when shopping for a new car.
-- all one has to do is take a listen to the Shortwaves today and that will be the state of FM and AM by the last half of the century.
For AM, perhaps. FM will continue to be another option among others, for music, news and entertainment programming. No subscription needed.