Are broadcast networks becoming obsolete 10-20 yrs from now?

[CurtisNEPA]

Given that many of the newer, even popular shows are being exclusive to streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, etc, had been on network TV for one season and then gets picked up by streamers, and the fact that NBC is considering cutting back programming hours like eliminating the 10pm slot altogether, I do believe that within the next decade or so, broadcast networks will eventually stop investing in original programming and become more of a syndication service like MyNetworkTV showing mostly reruns, even more live sports. A long time ago, way before streaming media and also before cable became commonplace, all of the original scripted programming(even superhero shows) can be easily found on network TV. Back then, even Fridays and Saturday nights have shows that were a ratings success, including Dukes of Hazzard and Dallas, and ABC's TGIF comedy blocks. Times have changed, and recently, they become "graveyard slots", with Saturdays preserved for mostly live sporting events. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the networks eliminates its Saturday night programming altogether.

With the CW being sold, and many of its popular shows are either cancelled or given their final seasons, this is a pure example on how network TV is trying to survive in the age of streaming media. This applies to the cable networks too. And finally, it's now becoming more rare for network TV to run made-for-TV movies, most of which are now being exclusive to streamers.

If this trend continues, broadcast TV will eventually disappear.....

 

[JeeperOne]

Given that many of the newer, even popular shows are being exclusive to streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, etc, had been on network TV for one season and then gets picked up by streamers, and the fact that NBC is considering cutting back programming hours like eliminating the 10pm slot altogether, I do believe that within the next decade or so, broadcast networks will eventually stop investing in original programming and become more of a syndication service like MyNetworkTV showing mostly reruns, even more live sports. A long time ago, way before streaming media and also before cable became commonplace, all of the original scripted programming(even superhero shows) can be easily found on network TV. Back then, even Fridays and Saturday nights have shows that were a ratings success, including Dukes of Hazzard and Dallas, and ABC's TGIF comedy blocks. Times have changed, and recently, they become "graveyard slots", with Saturdays preserved for mostly live sporting events. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the networks eliminates its Saturday night programming altogether.

With the CW being sold, and many of its popular shows are either cancelled or given their final seasons, this is a pure example on how network TV is trying to survive in the age of streaming media. This applies to the cable networks too. And finally, it's now becoming more rare for network TV to run made-for-TV movies, most of which are now being exclusive to streamers.

If this trend continues, broadcast TV will eventually disappear.....

I just posted my opinion on this here if you care to read it

 

[Mikey Radio]

As has been stated in other Radio Discussions threads before, whether some wish to admit or even fully understand it or not, broadcasting is a business. It comes down to rating and dollars and cents. If larger networks or cable stations can find a large enough audience and advertisers to support the cost of creating various programming (and depending on the type of programming, the amount and level of 'talent' involved and other factors, some programming is obviously more expensive to create and produce than others), they will do so. If it simply doesn't make sense, either because the viewership or ad dollars simply aren't there for whatever reason and the proverbial juice isn't worth the squeeze, then no.

People have many more options in 2022 than to sit in front of their TVs as much as they maybe used to even 20 or 30 years ago, and those who do sit in front of their TVs have many more options than just the scheduled programming from the big networks and cable stations. Options have greatly increased, viewer tastes and habits have changed. That means certain programming and networks that were popular with strong viewership even up until relatively recently may need to adapt, change or in some cases, may not be around forever, at least in their present format.

 

[TheBigA]

If this trend continues, broadcast TV will eventually disappear.....

Assuming everyone remains willing to spend money on streaming. Netflix lost 1 million subscribers this year. That's significant.

The big issue is for the streaming packages to become bigger so people don't have to subscribe to five or six different services. Broadcast TV will continue to be viable as long as cable packages are a good deal. The networks have their bases covered with their own streaming and cable services.

 

[crainbebo]

I don't like saying this, but I assume most television stations in markets 100 and below will cease operations permanently by the 2030s. They are losing revenue, losing audiences, and with networks advocating for Disney+/Hulu/Peacock/Paramount+, the OTA TV station becomes as dead as the Pony Express, the VHS tape, and the 8-track. Many have consolidated by converting a full-power station into a multi-subchannel station (the DT1 being Dabl, or H&I, or something else), moving the Big 4 affiliate to a DT2 on another station.
WNBC NYC will be able to afford a full schedule of newscasts and local programming (+ a few NBC programs and live sports simulcasted on Peacock). But will KECI in Missoula? KRBC in Abilene? KALB in Alexandria?

I have cousins in their early 30s who watch EVERYTHING on streaming. They binge-watch Gordon Ramsey's shows on Pluto TV, for example. To them, what's a "KIMA"?
In addition, more and more children are watching cartoons and educational shows on apps and not linear cable TV or PBS. Why bother watching Nick, waiting for the umpteenth SpongeBob episode where Plankton fails to find the Secret Krabby Patty Formula, when a 7-year-old can punch it in on Netflix or whatever OTT service streams SpongeBob?
I now live in a generation where K-2 students are learning basic CODING in elementary school, and many 5th/6th graders know advanced Python code. This is a completely different generation of kids than those born in the '80s and '90s.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the home television in the next 5-10 years. Will my local 'stations' even exist by 8/31/2032?

 

[davideduardo]

I don't like saying this, but I assume most television stations in markets 100 and below will cease operations permanently by the 2030s.

While looking ahead by 8 years is hazardous, I can give some insight into what goes on outside the top 100 markets. I am in market 132, and it is geographically isolated so outside signals do not penetrate, even with big outside antennas.

The local TV operators make over half of their income off carriage fees from cable. And the big attraction is local news and live sports, both on the ABC/CBS/NBC affiliates and the Telemundo and Univision affiliates. The local newspaper is now terrible, with no real offices and printing done 300 miles away.

As long as there is interest in local news and there is no strong web-only news provider, the local TV stations will do well. And as long as there is syndication material that allows those not spending on many streaming services, the stations will do well.

Nearly a third of homes here do not have wired services, cable or web. So they are dependent on OTA TV. Of course, we may see the government subsidize internet connectivity, which would be a game changer. But for the moment, with great changes in subscription services due to inflation, OTA TV looks viable.

They are losing revenue, losing audiences, and with networks advocating for Disney+/Hulu/Peacock/Paramount+, the OTA TV station becomes as dead as the Pony Express, the VHS tape, and the 8-track. Many have consolidated by converting a full-power station into a multi-subchannel station (the DT1 being Dabl, or H&I, or something else), moving the Big 4 affiliate to a DT2 on another station.

Our local operators have added secondary channels with the usual offerings of shopping, old 60's and 70's shows and the like. That allows them to add advertising packages that are appealing to local merchants.

WNBC NYC will be able to afford a full schedule of newscasts and local programming (+ a few NBC programs and live sports simulcasted on Peacock). But will KECI in Missoula? KRBC in Abilene? KALB in Alexandria?

Our local operators make huge money on local news, with the leading ones having 3 1/2 to 4 hours daily of local news plus inserts into the network morning shows. Local advertisers are on waiting lists to be in the early news, noon hour, the two half hours surrounding network news and the 11 PM half hour plus the post-night-show rerun of the 11 PM news.

I have cousins in their early 30s who watch EVERYTHING on streaming. They binge-watch Gordon Ramsey's shows on Pluto TV, for example. To them, what's a "KIMA"?
In addition, more and more children are watching cartoons and educational shows on apps and not linear cable TV or PBS. Why bother watching Nick, waiting for the umpteenth SpongeBob episode where Plankton fails to find the Secret Krabby Patty Formula, when a 7-year-old can punch it in on Netflix or whatever OTT service streams SpongeBob?

The key shows are not kids (no local money at all) but news, local sports and the first run syndicated shows no yet on cable or streams such as the court, cooking and news based talk shows. And, of course, the first run game shows.

I now live in a generation where K-2 students are learning basic CODING in elementary school, and many 5th/6th graders know advanced Python code. This is a completely different generation of kids than those born in the '80s and '90s.

And I was in a school where French was obligatory. At a class reunion, I said something in French and not a single one of my classmates knew a word.

Having a class... any class... does not mean a life-long skill. I doubt any of my classmates could do trig, distinguish between sine and cosine or to multiple variable equations; they have not needed those skills for 50 years.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the home television in the next 5-10 years. Will my local 'stations' even exist by 8/31/2032?

You are forgetting the huge percentage of households where making the money last till the 30's of the month is a skill and a challenge. And we are seeing more and more people in that class, particularly with estimates that show over 20,000,000 undocumented immigrants, most with less than a 6th grade education... and over 2 million a year arriving now.

 

[b-turner]

I was going to point out that the reason to have an over the air TV station is the revenue from the FCC must carry rule. While cable is losing subscribers, this is still a huge chunk of money. I don't know what a local station can charge but I know ESPN is in excess if $5 per subscriber per month. Quite frankly, when you look at all the channels and the monthly cable bill, there's not much that goes in the cable company's pocket after paying per subscriber fees on the channels they offer.

When you consider TV stations can operate additional programming choices on the same channel, a station can command a nice sum of money before selling a single commercial. Local news is a big moneymaker because you own the programming and can set the commercial load (syndicated charges by the market and usually requires clearing a certain number of commercials meaning the number of local avails is limited). Sure, those additional programming choices limit the number of local avails, it seems where I am they have several advertisers that buy percentages of remaining avails at a discount rate which is found money.

While the numbers might be diminishing, stations are going online to get viewers too.

The biggest complaint I hear about from online only services is receiving local news from broadcast TV stations.

How quickly this will change is anybody's guess. 2012 is quite different from 2022 and 2002 very much different from 2022. I think about 1992 I queried if this internet thing would happen in my lifetime.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

The big issue is for the streaming packages to become bigger so people don't have to subscribe to five or six different services.

Subscribing to several services, under $10 or $15 a month with no contracts is good for consumers. Expanding the bundles are good for Warner, Disney, Paramount and the like. Since I have no business interest in the studios, I'll side with consumers.

Broadcast TV will continue to be viable as long as cable packages are a good deal.

In that case, broadcast TV should have ceased several years ago because the cable bundle has been a rip-off for quite a long time. Really starting when Perry Sook realized he could make more money off cable subscribers than selling advertising and started spreading that concept around the country...

I don't know what a local station can charge but I know ESPN is in excess if $5 per subscriber per month.

My "broadcast station surcharge" on my cable bill is $21. Figure you split that up between the four commercial broadcast stations, and you're in the right ballpark.

Local news is a big moneymaker because you own the programming and can set the commercial load

Local news is a moneymaker today. I've been pretty vocal on RD for years about local TV news being cheaply produced, with little "news you can use" value to the viewers. Social media is where news happens in the future, and it does not involve an anchorperson being paid six figures.

You are forgetting the huge percentage of households where making the money last till the 30's of the month is a skill and a challenge. And we are seeing more and more people in that class, particularly with estimates that show over 20,000,000 undocumented immigrants, most with less than a 6th grade education... and over 2 million a year arriving now.

If the only people watching broadcast TV are the poor and illegal immigrants, the business becomes that much harder to maintain. How much money is Jeep going to spend to sell an $80,000 car to someone making $30,000 a year?

 

[davideduardo]

If the only people watching broadcast TV are the poor and illegal immigrants, the business becomes that much harder to maintain. How much money is Jeep going to spend to sell an $80,000 car to someone making $30,000 a year?

First, the stations are making 50% or more of their income from must carry fees, so their income does not matter.

Second, much of what is advertised on local TV is local retail, health care services, credit dentists, cars with "guaranteed financing", Medicare-paid private plans, personal injury attorneys, debt consolidation, casinos, shows, and so on. All of those categories appeal to lower income people, some even more.

And many higher income people watch local TV news and sports and some features because they find that TV today delivers the best local news.

/Sarcasim on
I suspect people with lesser educations are more likely to not know that the entire Jeep line is by far the lowest rated by Consumer Reports, so they may be good prospects with higher interest financing.
/Sarcasm off

 

[TheBigA]

Subscribing to several services, under $10 or $15 a month with no contracts is good for consumers.

It may be a good deal but it's a pain in the ass. To watch a complete season of one baseball team, I have to subscribe to MLB, Apple TV, Amazon Prime, and Peacock. That's just baseball. Four subscriptions, four bills, each with various opt-ins, passwords, and renewals.

In that case, broadcast TV should have ceased several years ago because the cable bundle has been a rip-off for quite a long time.

Its a rip off, but it's also a convenience. Which is why about 70 million people still use it. Comcast is in cable, broadcast (NBC), and streaming (Peacock). They have business in all platforms.

 

[gr8oldies]

It may be a good deal but it's a pain in the ass. To watch a complete season of one baseball team, I have to subscribe to MLB, Apple TV, Amazon Prime, and Peacock. That's just baseball. Four subscriptions, four bills, each with various opt-ins, passwords, and renewals.



Its a rip off, but it's also a convenience. Which is why about 70 million people still use it. Comcast is in cable, broadcast (NBC), and streaming (Peacock). They have business in all platforms.

I so hate the cable bill, but someone would really have to walk us through still getting what we want with only streaming. My wife is a devoted Pioneer Woman fan, but we've yet to find out where the brand new episodes stream. There are years of archived shows, but not necessarily the new ones (as just one example). How many NASCAR packages would we need for all the cup races? Stuff like that adds up

 

[landtuna]

How many NASCAR packages would we need for all the cup races? Stuff like that adds up

Or, you could just wait until the race is over and watch it on YouTube.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

I don't like saying this, but I assume most television stations in markets 100 and below will cease operations permanently by the 2030s. They are losing revenue, losing audiences, and with networks advocating for Disney+/Hulu/Peacock/Paramount+, the OTA TV station becomes as dead as the Pony Express, the VHS tape, and the 8-track. Many have consolidated by converting a full-power station into a multi-subchannel station (the DT1 being Dabl, or H&I, or something else), moving the Big 4 affiliate to a DT2 on another station.
WNBC NYC will be able to afford a full schedule of newscasts and local programming (+ a few NBC programs and live sports simulcasted on Peacock). But will KECI in Missoula? KRBC in Abilene? KALB in Alexandria?

I have cousins in their early 30s who watch EVERYTHING on streaming. They binge-watch Gordon Ramsey's shows on Pluto TV, for example. To them, what's a "KIMA"?
In addition, more and more children are watching cartoons and educational shows on apps and not linear cable TV or PBS. Why bother watching Nick, waiting for the umpteenth SpongeBob episode where Plankton fails to find the Secret Krabby Patty Formula, when a 7-year-old can punch it in on Netflix or whatever OTT service streams SpongeBob?
I now live in a generation where K-2 students are learning basic CODING in elementary school, and many 5th/6th graders know advanced Python code. This is a completely different generation of kids than those born in the '80s and '90s.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the home television in the next 5-10 years. Will my local 'stations' even exist by 8/31/2032?

Well we will have to wait for how Nexstar, Sinclair, Gray, Scripps, Hubbard, Hearst, Cox, Tegna, News Press Gazette, Allen Media will respond to the streaming age given that they own the most local TV stations in the USA. I knew in Scripps case they became the owner of Ion and Newsy (Scripps News Service).
Also there are ongoing plans for Nexstar to be majority owner of the CW and their current plans for Newsnation.
So far these parties have been building their portfolio on Subchannel networks or streaming outlets on OTT. I'm just not sure how long they will hold on to the local stations for now.

 

[CTListener]

You are forgetting the huge percentage of households where making the money last till the 30's of the month is a skill and a challenge. And we are seeing more and more people in that class, particularly with estimates that show over 20,000,000 undocumented immigrants, most with less than a 6th grade education... and over 2 million a year arriving now.

Since when has commercial television or the cable industry been concerned about its appeal to those demos?

 

[Mediafrog+]

I was going to point out that the reason to have an over the air TV station is the revenue from the FCC must carry rule.

Don’t confuse “must carry” with “retransmission consent”. The latter involves popular stations that people want to see (usually network affiliates) that cable companies are then required to pay for. Must carry is usually the more obscure stations that few people watch, but due to being full market signals they can demand uncompensated carriage on cable systems.

 

[davideduardo]

Its a rip off, but it's also a convenience. Which is why about 70 million people still use it. Comcast is in cable, broadcast (NBC), and streaming (Peacock). They have business in all platforms.

I think that there are 70 million subscribers... that means well over 200 million persons given the average household size in the US, even discounting the commercial subscriptions for businesses and hotels and schools.

 

[davideduardo]

Since when has commercial television or the cable industry been concerned about its appeal to those demos?

Commercial TV sells viewers and households. Nielsen does not have a stratification variable for "illegal immigrant" and stations count viewers, not their legal status.

Cable companies don't care about the status of subscribers, either. Where I live, in the areas where there are lower income families, the cable TV providers even have a service where a person can pay month by month with no contract sort of like a by-the-minute cellular plan.

 

[Mikey Radio]

I so hate the cable bill, but someone would really have to walk us through still getting what we want with only streaming. My wife is a devoted Pioneer Woman fan, but we've yet to find out where the brand new episodes stream. There are years of archived shows, but not necessarily the new ones (as just one example). How many NASCAR packages would we need for all the cup races? Stuff like that adds up

Same. Because of the specific shows and content we watch on at least a somewhat regular basis, I've yet to find any other outlet aside from cable that would provide everything we regularly watch. If I could, it would require nearly as much $$ for the various streaming services we'd need to subscribe to as our current cable bill costs, so for now we stick with cable. As more and more content moves to streaming, we'll re-evaluate that every several months.

 

[Mr Tony]

How many NASCAR packages would we need for all the cup races? Stuff like that adds up

You can get all the NASCAR races for 35 bucks with sling blue for FS1 and USA.
This is based on if you can get an OTA signal for Fox and NBC. Otherwise add $5 for peacock (for NBC races)

 

[CTListener]

You can get all the NASCAR races for 35 bucks with sling blue for FS1 and USA.
This is based on if you can get an OTA signal for Fox and NBC. Otherwise add $5 for peacock (for NBC races)

Of course, Peacock's premium service is provided at no extra cost to Comcast/Xfinity subscribers.