Just wait until their sales drop through the floor and see how fast exceptions are made.
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Fewer cars with AM radios...
- Thread starter davideduardo
- Start date
Train’s already left the station:
Clay County (FL) ARES was activated for hurricane shelter assistance during the recent visit of Ian. Nothing much of emergency traffic on the ARES 2M repeater, but it was busy with shelter related updates.
Nope. Never going to agree with you on this. I've no doubt that in some distant year the majority of cars on the streets will be EV's but a number of things, very difficult things, are going to have to happen. I've already posted these on prior posts so not going to get into them again here but it will take a substantial number of years for this switchover. Anything shorter will crater our economy and ain't gonna happen!
And none of this will impact the trucking industry, shipping industry (except perhaps the 'last mile deliveries'), airline industry or trains.
Well, you wouldn't be agreeing with me. The reason I posted the report is that IHS Markit is an analyst firm looking at what's already happening, not an advocacy group arguing for what they believe should.
And all of my posts have been clear that we're talking about passenger vehicles, that so far only California has such a plan and that it's 13 years from now, not a week from Thursday.
Point of reference: 13 years ago, there were ZERO full-electric passenger cars for sale in the United States (we were still in the "Who Killed The Electric Car?" phase) and ZERO public charging stations.
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Exactly. We are not debating WHAT will happen, only WHEN.
My point in mentioning the non-passenger-car population is to say that petroleum will still be refined for those purposes (and a whole host of others including heating oil etc.) and as long as refining is being done a certain amount of gasoline for car use will be available and as long as gas is available there will be a certain number of customers. In any event I will be long gone before EV's are a majority. Until then I will drive an ICE vehicle.
And only a TINY percent now. And until the economy gets on track again and the EV manufacturers build price equivalent EV's (as opposed to the luxo EV's of today) their growth will be very slow. Personally, although I would have no problem buying the most pricey EV but in every other respect they would be a complete waste of money for me. And yes, I fully realize I am not a representative of the nationwide car buying public but of the people close to me in age very, VERY few have the financial assets to purchase even the basic EV now. And when you look at the battery replacement life and cost it makes even less sense.
Again, Tuna, I'm not trying to change your mind (when has that EVER worked?), but for those looking in on the conversation, this analysis (not advocacy) from IHS Markit gives a clear picture of the EV market, what's being done now and what that sets in motion for the future:
Other than the battery replacement history of an early EV, the Nissan Leaf, I haven't seen any documented examples where the cost of battery replacement is overly burdensome. Personally, I've been eyeing the EV option for a couple years. Like anything, time has allowed for refinement of EV designs to get the purchase cost down, including maintenance and operation.
I'm very interested in leasing one of the new VW ID Buzz: The ID. Buzz from Volkswagen
Haven't heard whether there will be an AM radio included, but honestly, what normal person actually cares if it does or not? I mean, just look at it.
I agree. Given that the ID.4 does not have AM, I’m betting the ID.Buzz won’t either. Again, that’s as much driven by AM’s extinction in Europe as anything.
You haven't been ready any customer (real or potential) reviews of people already owning EV's or people considering them then. The 'net is full of disappointed EV (or potential) buyers who find the limitations of an EV battery doesn't, in many cases, contribute to owner satisfaction. Initial cost, battery replacement cost (owners typically lease or sell their expiring EV's before the battery goes boobies up), weather (either too hot or too cold really saps battery strength), inability to perform heavy duty functions (towing mainly). The list goes on.
As I've said many times before the only reason EV's should become popular is to replace the one passenger commuters. In virtually every other instance the EV underperforms and most people cannot afford their limited usefulness to own an EV as a second car. This will not change until EV's become MUCH less expensive.
I don't see it. Most EV's are still WAY too expensive to replace the econobox commuter ICE car. Of course you could consider an EV from China or Vietnam (shades of the Yugo come to mind).
This from Motorbiscuit: "The pricing for the 2024 Volkswagen ID. Buzz is an estimated guess based on its price in Germany. In Germany, the ID. Buzz Pro, which is the passenger model, starts at 64,581.30 euros." The US dollar is essentially equal to the euro these days and you can bet if they sell they will sell at a premium price well above what is advertised today. VW now considers itself a premium brand just like the other German marques.
And I thought I just read on this forum the other day that Germany has rid itself of virtually all commercial AM radio services. In the USA AM radio is declining. If true why would VW put an AM radio in their new EV bus? It doesn't seem to work well in VW's world wide markets either. More likely they'd offer a streaming or satellite radio instead - at least in the American and Canadian markets (thus increasing the cost even more).
And one more thought since you mentioned leasing. With the way purchase costs are going pretty soon the only way you'll be able to get a new passenger vehicle is to lease it. But perhaps, as with homes, we should begin calling it a mortgage.
There's a lot here, but I'll start with what I have time for at the moment---Federal law requires EVs to have warranties for their batteries of 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. California goes further, requiring EVs sold here to have warranties for 10 years or 150,000 miles, whichever comes first.
This from Consumer Affairs:
"We reached out to mechanics and technicians across the country to see how much an EV battery replacement costs for different vehicles, and the average results ranged from $4,489 all the way to a staggering $17,658."
The estimated life span of an EV battery (normal usage) is between 8 and 15 years. With the average of an ICE car life in the USA right now exceeding 10 years it can be expected that at some time a battery replacement for an EV will be necessary. How many ICE owners plan for an engine overhaul in that time? While ICE engine rebuilds can run almost to that level you cannot swap out an EV battery. At present they are not rebuildable (and you won't find them in junkyards either). Disposal will become a significant problem as well probably costing even more to replace your battery. Also, what is an EV worth with a failing battery as compared to an ICE vehicle? Peanuts! Although these EV deficiencies may improve over time that's what the current situation is.
If an EV is within your financial means and you intend commuting with it, not carrying heavy loads, not towing anything larger than a very small camping trailer and you are willing to spend up to 30 minutes recharging on a long trip (even with no other EV's in line) then go for it. This also assumes you can charge at home in off peak hours which might also become a non-starter as the drain on electric companies gets heavier and rates change. Otherwise I would strongly recommend waiting until EV's become virtually as convenient and cost-efficient as ICE cars are today.
Oh, and like the Pinto's of yesteryear, don't forget to wear your fire suit when driving (and don't park it in your garage).
That's all well and good but with normal maintenance and usage a typical ICE vehicle can last well over 150,000 miles and ten years AND still have some residual value left. A dead EV has practically none as the cost of battery replace usually costs more than the vehicle's worth. ROI = very poor to non-existant.
AND, to take advantage of a battery warranty how would you prove manufacturing defect (on which most warranties are based)? I'm guessing (without much risk) that there will be many disappointed and frustrated EV owners trying to prove defects. Bumper-to-bumper warranties will be very expensive (which will, of course, be baked into the original vehicle cost).
And the exhaust system for a diesel Ford pickup is just north of $15,000.00. Replacement parts for modern cars just cost more. This isn't your ancient air cooled VW Beetle anymore.
And statistics show; average consumers keep their vehicles for ten years. That's right in line with your posted estimate.
That's why in the future, consumers may want to consider leasing, rather than buying.
Many consumers who don't do adequate maintenance on their vehicles, don't expect catastrophic failure either. Many people want to just put gas in and drive until it breaks. After that, they're all upset they only got 50,000 miles out of their vehicle. At least EV's require much less maintenance, and because of that, likely would be a better fit for many consumers.
This isn't the 1960's anymore. Most consumers don't rebuild their own powertrains. Consumers are mostly reliant on dealers or independent specialty shops to do major repairs. Same with EV's.
As you say: At present.
As Michael pointed out already; EV's aren't for everyone, but are increasing in their capabilities. Would I replace my Ford F350 with an EV? No, because the technology isn't practical for towing or hauling. As I mentioned; the VW ID Buzz is very appealing for my commuting, or average week by week use.
I'm in the process of installing 26 solar panels to my southern-facing garage roof which will easily charge an EV during the day, and I'll sell power back to the utility when not charging my car(s).
Recommendation noted, but everyone's situation might be different than an EV skeptic.
The same could be said for any vehicle.
I hadn't heard of Consumer Affairs, so I went looking. There's some controversy about their methodology:
https://truthinadvertising.org/articles/consumer-affairs-com/
It appears that companies unwilling to pay them get less than favorable treatment. Consumer Affairs' response was not a change in methodology, but a banner disclosing paid or non-paid affiliation.
Consumer Reports has no such controversies. Here's what they had to say about EV battery replacement costs in their most recent piece eight months ago:
"The cost can be between $5,000 and $15,000 and is akin to an engine or transmission replacement in a gas car."
"Despite the concern about a potential costly repair when replacing these batteries, we haven’t seen it as a common issue in our exclusive car reliability data. Such problems are rare."
(full article here: https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/what-happens-to-the-old-batteries-in-electric-cars-a1091429417/)
First, you can. Second, if you couldn't, then what would the "replacement battery cost" be for?
Also, from savings on fuel to savings on maintenance, the cost of ownership of an EV is much lower than that of an ICE vehicle:
Actually, on a per-capita basis, EVs catch fire less frequently than hybrids or ICE vehicles:
AutoInsuranceEZ studied the frequency of fires—from all causes, including collisions—in automobiles in 2021. It found that hybrid vehicles, which have an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, had the most fires per 100,000 vehicles (3475), while vehicles with just an internal combustion engine placed second (1530 per 100,000). Fully electric vehicles had the fewest: 25 per 100,000. These findings were based on data from the National Transportation Safety Board and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
No, Millions of Cars Are Not Catching Fire Every Year
A New York Times story about U.S. car fires references a study that gets the frequency wrong by a factor of at least 60.
I'm a member of a Facebook group where classic Gasoline Alley comic strips are posted, including the ones from the 1920s. I figured these guys were mechanics, but no, they just enjoy working on their cars. way mor than most people do nowadays.
And guess what helped to change that?
Government incentives for plug-in electric vehicles - Wikipedia
"Thanks, Obama!"
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