Are there hits any more? An article by Bob Lefsetz

[davideduardo]

The Billboard Article

“Too Many Songs, Not Enough Hits: Pop Music Is Struggling to Create New Stars – Execs say that a deluge of new music — and the difficulty of influencing TikTok’s algorithm — has m…

lefsetz.com

"Too Many Songs, Not Enough Hits: Pop Music Is Struggling to Create New Stars - Execs say that a deluge of new music — and the difficulty of influencing TikTok's algorithm — has made building an audience harder than ever for new acts."

The change in determining what the hits are... if there are any.

"There are many ways to judge — and argue over — what 'breaking' means today; label executives tend to use streaming numbers as a barometer, while most managers prefer to look at ticket sales. But the number of new acts vaulting into the top 10 of the Hot 100 has declined precipitously in the last few years. From 2001 to 2004, over 30 first-timers cracked the top 10 annually. In 2019, however, only 15 first-timers reached the top 10, and 2021 had the lowest number of new entrants this millennium: just 13."

This is a music-focused regular newsletter site well worth following before criticizing radio for "not playing the right songs".

Lefsetz Letter

First in Music Analysis

lefsetz.com

 

[TheBigA]

"Too Many Songs, Not Enough Hits: Pop Music Is Struggling to Create New Stars - Execs say that a deluge of new music — and the difficulty of influencing TikTok's algorithm — has made building an audience harder than ever for new acts."

This is exactly what we've been talking about for a long time. Record labels are pumping out more songs than radio can handle, because the fans want music. But while the fans love new songs, the songs aren't hits. It takes radio to create hits. Why is that? Because of repetition, and because of the weekly horse race for #1.

Lefsetz quotes a label guy as saying "A #1 radio song don't mean F anymore." But that's because he's at the label. A #1 means a lot to the artists. That's why they work so hard to get them. A #1 song means MONEY to songwriters. Radio pays songwriters a big royalty for their music. But the only way the labels make money is from consumption. If people buy or stream music, the labels get paid. And the labels don't directly benefit if their artists become stadium-filling superstars. So they're playing in two different games.

Same with radio. Radio needs hit music to drive their stations. Only a few genres are interested in creating hit music: Country, Pop, and Urban. The rest don't care. They're just cranking out songs and videos like there's no limit. I was with one label guy who told me he just hired a YouTube specialist. They create YouTube videos because they can monetize them. In that way, record labels are in the media business. They make media they can monetize. They build Sirius channels because they can monetize them. Sirius pays record labels a royalty. Radio does not.

So what about new artists? Labels are signing them faster than ever. But they're not releasing all of their music to radio. I hear they're waiting until the new artist gets enough traction at Spotify to be worth the investment at radio. Because when radio adds a song, that's an investment in that song and artist. Not every investment will pay off. So the labels in some genres are being more careful about which artists they bring to radio.

So yes, the record industry is cranking out a lot of music, but not a lot of hits. I overheard someone say there are fewer charted hits this year than in previous years. Fewer songs that will have that "long tail" that sociologists talk about. The songs people will remember when they're 55. But that's OK. Having hit songs is not about quantity, it's about quality. Let the streamers take the quantity. They're all disposable. But hit songs are forever. The artists know that, because they see the results of having hit songs every time they walk on stage.

Lefsetz is right. The music business has changed a lot. Everybody is looking out for their own business model. If there aren't enough hits for a radio format, the format may go away. Radio needs to look out for its own business model. That's why two rock music stations (KEGL and WNYL) flipped to talk. Radio companies own talk. They don't own music. Companies can really only make money on things they own. Same with record labels. In the old days, they might release ten albums by ten artists with each selling a million copies. Now they may release 50 records by 50 artists with each one selling 200,000 copies. That's good enough. But how many of those songs are hits? How many of those artists are stars? About the same as if they only released 10 records.

 

[davideduardo]

Anyone who has been involved in recent threads about music genres, the selection of music for airplay or "hits" in general should read the Lefsetz article in the link and BigA's excellently focused comments.

The record industry is in a period of confused transition, trying out all kinds of things. The problem is that they don't focus enough on anything to do it right.

 

[Mikey Radio]

As I said in another thread, it's a double edged sword with music and even TV, movie and video content now. On one side, there are now a lot more opportunities for a lot more people to crank out content and become known and to have their videos and movies and music go viral - not just via the more traditional outlets like major movie releases, network TV and radio broadcasts - but now Youtube, TikTok, streaming services, smaller studios, etc. have opened the door for a lot more people and content. Gone are the days when only a few handfuls of select songs, movies, TV shows and even "stars" got all the attention and notoriety. On the other side of that, of course, this means there's a deluge of content coming from many outlets and it is a lot more diluted as a result.

I remember on this very website, someone posted several months ago that they knew of a promising up and coming musician and they were asking about the best way to get their music on the radio. The overwhelming response from people on Radio Discussions was basically "Why bother with radio? That model is passe, and if I were trying to release a song or become known in 202X, I wouldn't turn to radio as would've been the case years ago".

 

[TheBigA]

The overwhelming response from people on Radio Discussions was basically "Why bother with radio? That model is passe, and if I were trying to release a song or become known in 202X, I wouldn't turn to radio as was the case years ago".

Why does it have to be one or the other? What we're seeing in the music industry is they're releasing it everywhere. Let's throw the spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.

Radio is the focused platform. TikTok is unfocused. Which platform gets better results? It depends. Focus helps for the long term. Unfocused is probably good for the short term. And once again, I ask about quality vs. quantity. Radio can't deal with quantity. How many songs by Harry Styles can you play at the same time? Radio is the free sample. You want the full picture? You know where to go.

 

[davideduardo]

Why does it have to be one or the other? What we're seeing in the music industry is they're releasing it everywhere. Let's throw the spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.

Radio is the focused platform. TikTok is unfocused. Which platform gets better results? It depends. Focus helps for the long term. Unfocused is probably good for the short term. And once again, I ask about quality vs. quantity. Radio can't deal with quantity. How many songs by Harry Styles can you play at the same time? Radio is the free sample. You want the full picture? You know where to go.

The problem is, when you have more people in a nation of about the same size producing music releases, that it's not spaghetti but another word starting with the same letter that gets thrown against the wall. Or, in this case, hits the fan.

If we assume that true talent will rise to the top, what we have then is more non-talent putting stuff out. Talent comes from school and college groups and events, local contest, neighborhood jams and music schools. There are plenty of venues where bands can play and get paid as they develop.

Some are just having fun and go nowhere. Some become tribute bands and can make a good second income doing events and "live music nights" at clubs. Some play for civic events, for old folks homes and all kinds of other "Saturday In The Park" gatherings.

A few get noticed, get the right songs and manager, and a hit or two or three. Or become the names we all know.

Now, there is a flood of very amateur releases. Suddenly it is like living in the basement where the walls leak. The stench and grunge is so great that you can't see a lot of the good stuff. And, more important, the limited staffs at real record companies can't see everything that is worth seeing due to the plethora of weak stuff flooding the channels.

How are new artists found today? We see data that shows that there are fewer big hits and fewer developing "real" artists (ones that get both huge streaming listens and fill venues) so what is wrong... and will an even different system develop other than a minute of TikTok fame?

Artist development I am familiar with:

First one: while at WHTT (Metroplex' sister to Y-100) we did a lot of client remotes. We had a number of bands that played free for us in exchange for exposure and practice. One of them, young Cuban Americans, really played well. They always kept their promises and worked with us, so much so that they all became friends. The singer, a young lady, was charming and her husband, the band leader was good at the music and was a businessman, too. They later got a recording contract and did pretty well, but the base was playing all over Miami in station events and getting noticed. Oh, they called themselves Miami Sound Machine and they were Gloria and Emilio Estefan.

Second one: A young girl in South America had won a couple of singing and dancing contests. She got noticed by a label, and did an album as part of a three album deal. It was a bomb. The label, not having high costs there, did a second one with a new producer, and it did even worse. She took a break to finish high school. Meanwhile, the management met to decide whether to pay a small fee and cancel before the third album, but one of the executives decided that it was worth a chance to fly to Miami and get a new producer and record at Ocean V.U. where a single was sent back to Colombia and became a huge hit. The album was finished, released, won 3 Grammy awards and sold over 5 million LPs. The artist was Shakira.

(For her second album, Shakira teamed up in Miami with my friend, Emilio Estefan. That is another story related to "who knows who" which is also part of the traditional music business)

I bring these artists up because both worked in the system, and did all the preliminary work to get to a successful release. Is the industry so flooded with amateur and independent releases that this could not happen today, or will the good stuff still stand out?

 

[Daryl Lynn L.A.]

This is exactly what we've been talking about for a long time. Record labels are pumping out more songs than radio can handle, because the fans want music. But while the fans love new songs, the songs aren't hits. It takes radio to create hits. Why is that? Because of repetition, and because of the weekly horse race for #1.

Lefsetz quotes a label guy as saying "A #1 radio song don't mean F anymore." But that's because he's at the label. A #1 means a lot to the artists. That's why they work so hard to get them. A #1 song means MONEY to songwriters. Radio pays songwriters a big royalty for their music. But the only way the labels make money is from consumption. If people buy or stream music, the labels get paid. And the labels don't directly benefit if their artists become stadium-filling superstars. So they're playing in two different games.

Same with radio. Radio needs hit music to drive their stations. Only a few genres are interested in creating hit music: Country, Pop, and Urban. The rest don't care. They're just cranking out songs and videos like there's no limit. I was with one label guy who told me he just hired a YouTube specialist. They create YouTube videos because they can monetize them. In that way, record labels are in the media business. They make media they can monetize. They build Sirius channels because they can monetize them. Sirius pays record labels a royalty. Radio does not.

So what about new artists? Labels are signing them faster than ever. But they're not releasing all of their music to radio. I hear they're waiting until the new artist gets enough traction at Spotify to be worth the investment at radio. Because when radio adds a song, that's an investment in that song and artist. Not every investment will pay off. So the labels in some genres are being more careful about which artists they bring to radio.

So yes, the record industry is cranking out a lot of music, but not a lot of hits. I overheard someone say there are fewer charted hits this year than in previous years. Fewer songs that will have that "long tail" that sociologists talk about. The songs people will remember when they're 55. But that's OK. Having hit songs is not about quantity, it's about quality. Let the streamers take the quantity. They're all disposable. But hit songs are forever. The artists know that, because they see the results of having hit songs every time they walk on stage.

Lefsetz is right. The music business has changed a lot. Everybody is looking out for their own business model. If there aren't enough hits for a radio format, the format may go away. Radio needs to look out for its own business model. That's why two rock music stations (KEGL and WNYL) flipped to talk. Radio companies own talk. They don't own music. Companies can really only make money on things they own. Same with record labels. In the old days, they might release ten albums by ten artists with each selling a million copies. Now they may release 50 records by 50 artists with each one selling 200,000 copies. That's good enough. But how many of those songs are hits? How many of those artists are stars? About the same as if they only released 10 records.

Excellent analysis ! Very informative ! Thank you.

 

[Mikey Radio]

I bring these artists up because both worked in the system, and did all the preliminary work to get to a successful release.

But "the system" has changed. Listener habits have changed. The outlets people turn to in pursuit of newer artists and music have changed. Approaching big record labels to try and get air play, or even approaching MDs of local stations trying to get airplay or trying to get exposure by showing up and playing at events or dances is no longer the path for many younger artists and bands and hasn't been for some time.

You mention Miami Sound Machine and Shakira. Because I'm limited on time this morning I quickly referenced Wikipedia (apologies for doing so as I know the details on that site can be riddled with errors), and according to the information there (a bit of a disclaimer since it is Wikipedia), Miami Sound Machine was formed in 1977 - 45 years ago, and they had their last hit in 1989 - 33 years ago. Shakira released her first album with Sony in 1990 - 32 years ago. The music scene and record business was a completely different animal then. In some ways "working in the system" to try and get radio play is no more relevant for many in 2022 than it would be for a kid who wants to become a "movie star" to approach Louis B Mayer to ask to get a movie contract and work within the old 'studio system' and be set for life.

 

[davideduardo]

But "the system" has changed. Listener habits have changed. The outlets people turn to in pursuit of newer artists and music have changed. Approaching big record labels to try and get air play, or even approaching MDs of local stations trying to get airplay or trying to get exposure by showing up and playing at events or dances is no longer the path for many younger artists and bands and hasn't been for some time.

And that is why I brought these examples to the table. We know things have changed, but the quality of music overall and the system they are released in have declined as evidenced by fewer and fewer big hits emerging in many genres.

In fact, some areas of music, like rock, are in total disarray.

You mention Miami Sound Machine and Shakira. Because I'm limited on time this morning I quickly referenced Wikipedia (apologies for doing so as I know the details on that site can be riddled with errors), and according to the information there (a bit of a disclaimer since it is Wikipedia), Miami Sound Machine was formed in 1977 - 45 years ago, and they had their last hit in 1989 - 33 years ago. Shakira released her first album with Sony in 1990 - 35 years ago. The music scene and record business was a completely different animal then. In some ways "working in the system" to try and get radio play is no more relevant for many in 2022 than it would be for a kid who wants to become a "movie star" to approach Louis B Mayer to ask to get a movie contract and work within the old 'studio system' and be set for life.

Yet Miami Sound Machine did not have real hits for over 5 years after they got together, and Shakira's first hit single from an unreleased LP was in 1994... nearly half a decade after signing her first deal with Sony.

It seems that too many artists want a big hit the week after they lay down a track. The "old system" of playing clubs and events and practicing is not being applied in some genres. Where it is still very much in line with tradition is in country, and guess where the music is "working" for artists, labels and consumers?

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

As I said in another thread, it's a double edged sword with music and even TV, movie and video content now. On one side, there are now a lot more opportunities for a lot more people to crank out content and become known and to have their videos and movies and music go viral - not just via the more traditional outlets like major movie releases, network TV and radio broadcasts - but now Youtube, TikTok, streaming services, smaller studios, etc. have opened the door for a lot more people and content. Gone are the days when only a few handfuls of select songs, movies, TV shows and even "stars" got all the attention and notoriety. On the other side of that, of course, this means there's a deluge of content coming from many outlets and it is a lot more diluted as a result.

I remember on this very website, someone posted several months ago that they knew of a promising up and coming musician and they were asking about the best way to get their music on the radio. The overwhelming response from people on Radio Discussions was basically "Why bother with radio? That model is passe, and if I were trying to release a song or become known in 202X, I wouldn't turn to radio as would've been the case years ago".

Also the model has changed over the past 15 years for an artist and label to succeed. Before 2006-2007 it would have been the label would have a broadcast contract to MTV, VH1, BET, CMC and radio to promote an artist. However since 2007-2008 the model to promote a label and artist is to promote their concerts, be a trending name on YouTube by having the most views on the platform.

Today the labels are having to respond to a demographics shift such as attracting a genZ demo to concerts and getting the most watched Tik Tok Video in this era.

 

[davideduardo]

Also the model has changed over the past 15 years for an artist and label to succeed. Before 2006-2007 it would have been the label would have a broadcast contract to MTV, VH1, BET, CMC and radio to promote an artist.

Labels did not generally have any kind of such contract with radio or the TV operations. Labels certainly worked as close as they could with media to get airplay, and they bought time for new releases and the like.

However since 2007-2008 the model to promote a label and artist is to promote their concerts, be a trending name on YouTube by having the most views on the platform.

But, as I mention below, labels are not doing concerts for their artists for the most part, unless it is a promotional tour or involvement with major events such as iHeart's concerts.

Today the labels are having to respond to a demographics shift such as attracting a genZ demo to concerts and getting the most watched Tik Tok Video in this era.

Keep in mind that the label, unless it has one of the 360° deals with an artist, is not involved directly with concerts.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

Labels did not generally have any kind of such contract with radio or the TV operations. Labels certainly worked as close as they could with media to get airplay, and they bought time for new releases and the like.

But, as I mention below, labels are not doing concerts for their artists for the most part, unless it is a promotional tour or involvement with major events such as iHeart's concerts.

Keep in mind that the label, unless it has one of the 360° deals with an artist, is not involved directly with concerts.

Good point too!

 

[TheBigA]

Lefsetz mentions the new artist Zach Bryan. Today I received this press released about Bailey Zimmerman:

Bailey Zimmerman has made history. His very first full-length release, Leave The Light On, is not only the most-streamed all-genre debut of the year, but also the biggest streaming country debut of all time. The EP arrived at No. 2 on Billboard’s Top Country Albums chart and No. 9 on the all-genre Billboard 200 chart.

Zimmerman joins Zach Bryan and Luke Combs as the only country artists this year to earn more than 1 million streams on each track during street week alone. The track listing features standouts like “Trainwreck,” co-written with Morgan Wallen and “Rock And A Hard Place,” which ranked as the highest non-Morgan Wallen country song premiere of the year upon release and reached the Top 10 of Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart as well.

This is how record labels promote their artists. The mark to hit is a million streams. Bailey's debut single is in the country radio Top 10. So is Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen. So radio is responding to music that is also in the streaming charts.

 

[Phil Harmonic]

I was at I-95/Miami back when we got the Miami Sound Machine "Dr Beat" single, a record promoter just walked in one day, we thought it was cool, and we put it on. A few weeks later Gloria Estefan came by the station and took me and our station promotions person to lunch, Gloria drove, in a huge Rolls-Royce! Things were different then...

 

[DOB]

But "the system" has changed. Listener habits have changed. The outlets people turn to in pursuit of newer artists and music have changed. Approaching big record labels to try and get air play, or even approaching MDs of local stations trying to get airplay or trying to get exposure by showing up and playing at events or dances is no longer the path for many younger artists and bands and hasn't been for some time.

You mention Miami Sound Machine and Shakira. Because I'm limited on time this morning I quickly referenced Wikipedia (apologies for doing so as I know the details on that site can be riddled with errors), and according to the information there (a bit of a disclaimer since it is Wikipedia), Miami Sound Machine was formed in 1977 - 45 years ago, and they had their last hit in 1989 - 33 years ago. Shakira released her first album with Sony in 1990 - 32 years ago. The music scene and record business was a completely different animal then. In some ways "working in the system" to try and get radio play is no more relevant for many in 2022 than it would be for a kid who wants to become a "movie star" to approach Louis B Mayer to ask to get a movie contract and work within the old 'studio system' and be set for life.

There's way too much to unpack but I wouldn't discount Shakira's current viability. It might not age well.

 

[CTListener]

Lefsetz mentions the new artist Zach Bryan. Today I received this press released about Bailey Zimmerman:



This is how record labels promote their artists. The mark to hit is a million streams. Bailey's debut single is in the country radio Top 10. So is Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen. So radio is responding to music that is also in the streaming charts.

Bryan still has yet to break at radio, though. The label has been pushing "Something in the Orange" for a couple of months with little to show for it in radio airplay, as the major chains aren't biting on the song yet.

The weird thing about Zimmerman is that "Fall in Love," the song doing best at radio now (and likely headed for a No. 1 or 2 peak), was climbing the airplay chart at the same time "Rock and a Hard Place" was impacting the streaming/sales rankings. Is the label's plan now to get "Rock" on the radio after "Fall" goes recurrent, or does a third song from the EP make its debut?

It really is fascinating the way the Nashville machine is working of late. Sometimes I wonder if the grand scheme is to have as many Nashville-based artists happening in as many genres simultaneously as possible. Kane Brown could easily go country/AC/urban/pop. Wallen has country/pop/AC potential. And you posted earlier that Combs is getting CHR play, I assume for "The Kind of Love We Make." That surprises me, as I don't hear anything vocally or production-wise in his songs that suggests crossover. Is CHR being sent a remixed version, a la Taylor Swift's early crossovers?

 

[101tm]

There has been a lot of discussion of CHR’s playing golds. If anyone follows the Top 40 chart, you can see it’s been essentially stagnant for a month. Nothing is breaking through and the same songs keep staying in the same spots sometimes gaining and losing spins but not really moving. The top 10 is going to burn out if it hasn’t already - hence stations reducing spins and adding more gold.

 

[TheBigA]

Kane Brown could easily go country/AC/urban/pop.

Kane has a song in the pop charts now called Grand.

 

[CTListener]

Kane has a song in the pop charts now called Grand.

I realize that. I was adding AC as a possible second target for his current country single, "Thank God," the duet with his wife Katelyn.

 

[Mikey Radio]

There's way too much to unpack but I wouldn't discount Shakira's current viability. It might not age well.

Who questioned Shakira's current viability - at all? The discussion was about how newer, younger, up and coming musicians, artists and groups get notoriety in 2022 vs. how she was able to accomplish it in what was the more traditional way when she was first breaking into the biz a few decades ago.