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San Francisco Radio in 2023

2022 is coming to an end, so I wanted to see if we have updated predictions for the market. We have seen a lot change in 2022, and the ratings have been shifting!

I’ve named some personal view of outliars in the other thread.

KSOL-FM. Booking poorly in both markets. I do believe in serving the Hispanic market here so I’d advocate for a change before you chalk the formats up to settled in our metro.

KITS-FM. I feel like this one is a disaster. I usually don’t like to make conclusions this soon and with limited info, so I won’t push it too hard.

KGMZ-FM. With every other sports station seeing an increase in ratings, Audacy’s attempt at saving this station with a partnership is not working. It may take some time but I think later in the year if the trend continues downward this will be the top flip candidate.

KOSF-FM. I like this station a bit personally but they’ve seen a continued decline over a year. What used to always book a 3.0 has seen multiple dips this year.

KOSF might evolve into a straight-up classic hits and start adding more 90s and even 2000s songs.
 
There are some who are attached to Los Angeles Negros, Pasteles Verdes, Los Apsons etc.. Some of it that is played on KRCD in LA.
Sidebar: Los Apson were orginally called "Los Apson Boys" because they were all from Agua Prieta SONora on the US border..

And all those groups were widely heard, even down to northern South America. I played them all on my Top 40 stations in Ecuador.
 
Is it possible that not enough Spanish dominant listeners are receiving the new wearable, causing weird results for Hispanic targeted stations in certain markets like Houston and San Antonio? Granted, KSOL has been a 6+ underperformed for years, so nothing strange there. Additionally, the Univision owned Regional Mexican stations in markets like Chicago and Dallas-Fort Worth are still doing well.
 
Is it possible that not enough Spanish dominant listeners are receiving the new wearable, causing weird results for Hispanic targeted stations in certain markets like Houston and San Antonio? Granted, KSOL has been a 6+ underperformed for years, so nothing strange there. Additionally, the Univision owned Regional Mexican stations in markets like Chicago and Dallas-Fort Worth are still doing well.
The wearables are not yet being rolled out. They are, I was told, in final production but delayed due to shipping logistics.

In any case, the wearables have the same tech specs as the old "pager" style boxes.

The biggest issue in many Nielsen markets is the lack of households in some demographics, causing high weighting or things like 18-49 not being separable into 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 so... for example... the Spanish dominant sample may be mostly, in this theoretical example, all 35-44.

In one market that is less than 15% non-Mexican among Hispanics, the sample is over half Central American.
 
KITS booking a 1.1, below stations focused on half the San Francisco market — I would have never ditched alternative here and tried a different flavor and brand, but I think an active rock format would be pretty successful in the Bay Area.

I’m pulling back on any predictions for KGMZ - sports stations have existed with way worse numbers then them. As much as it is a wasted format, 104.5/680 are not infallible.

I do still think it is possible we will see a flip in one of the Spanish stations, perhaps Univision will try Spanish News on FM or try as they do in Texas with another English format.

Last but not least, I think KKIQ may flip to fill one of the missing formats since Alpha had success with the KBAY flip. KKIQ actually has fairly strong coverage of a large population of the Bay Area and they’ve been panning their other two FMs as serving San Francisco lately.
 
I would love to see an honest to goodness Rock station in the Bay Area. The odds of that happening are very long, sadly.

Placing the Bob & Tom show in morning drive on KSJO remains one of the worst programming moves in Bay Area radio history, in my opinion.
 
As I believe I've said before, I wouldn't mind seeing an oldies station somewhat like a mix of KYNO 940 (which is similar to Drake-era KFRC) and KVIN 920 (which is very reminiscent of KABL 960 during their final years as an oldies/adult standards format) with a bit of KIXI 880 (one of the few adult standards/swing/oldies stations that is still moderately successful ratings-wise, last I read). I'd like it on one of the AM stations, but I'd be just as happy even if it were on FM only because there's noting even close anywhere on either dial (the closest I've found is 80s+ on 103.7, but I miss some of the soft rock and singer-songwriter stuff from the early-mid 70s, which isn't part of their format).

Alas, this probably won't happen at all around here. There seems to be little to no interest, with most on FM preferring modern Top-40 (is that even a thing anymore?) or classic hits from the late 70s and beyond and AM preferring some combination of news, talk, sports and religious programming in various languages, which is fair I guess, since that's where their prized demographics are right now.

That said, I guess to enjoy the music I like around here, I have to become a DX master and try to tune into KVIN and KYNO when I can.

c
 
I can see where 105.3 KITS (Dave FM) could be one of the candidates of a format flip. Possible newsTalk format...maybe an oldies format or maybe a return of a rock music format...
 
I can see where 105.3 KITS (Dave FM) could be one of the candidates of a format flip. Possible newsTalk format...maybe an oldies format or maybe a return of a rock music format...
Owned by Audacy, which owns KCBS. That probably rules out News/Talk.

Define "oldies". What era?
 
I can see where 105.3 KITS (Dave FM) could be one of the candidates of a format flip. Possible newsTalk format...maybe an oldies format or maybe a return of a rock music format...
I was going to post this yesterday. I tuned to 105.3 on Sunday morning during a particularly uninteresting (to me) Weekend Edition story. "Dave FM" was playing K.C. and the Sunshine Band's Get Down Tonight. When that ended, they segued into the Beach Boys' Kokomo, and I thought, hmm, maybe they've changed format over New Year's weekend to something good. But the next song was back to whatever it is they usually play. Yesterday I caught them playing Rod Stewart's Da Ya Think I'm Sexy from 1978. So maybe there's hope for them if they're tweaking the music mix. Because the Bay Area definitely needs a pop-leaning CHR, and the definition of insanity is continuing to playing the same obscure rock songs and hoping for more than a 1.4 share.
 
I would like to see a radio station flip to an MOR/Soft Pop Oldies format similar to the one 1170 KLOK programmed in the 1970's!
 
Sidebar to the sidebar...

Sidebar: Los Apson were orginally called "Los Apson Boys" because they were all from Agua Prieta SONora on the US border..

And all those groups were widely heard, even down to northern South America. I played them all on my Top 40 stations in Ecuador.

The familia has branched out into the restaurant business here in southern Arizona: Sonoran Dogs | Best Tacos | Tacos Apson
 
Got a business case for this?
I can spin an embryonic one: There are a *lot* of 60's and 70's songs that have been used in TV shows and/or movies and/or commercials over the years. One example is Roy Orbison's Pretty Woman. Even if the original audience for that song is past the sales demo, many younger people who are still in it recognize and remember the song fondly from its secondary use. A format that harvests songs like that and uses them to add spice to a Classic Hits format isn't going to encounter large-scale tune-out the way more obscure songs from that era might. (e.g., I can probably live out the remainder of my life quite happily if I never again hear Surfing Bird, Candy Man, Hello Dolly, or 96 Tears. Or the original tribute to Sir Lancelot Vodka: In The Still of the Knight.) (...sorry, can't resist teeing up a bad pun. Too much Dan Ingram in my formative years.)
 
I can spin an embryonic one: There are a *lot* of 60's and 70's songs that have been used in TV shows and/or movies and/or commercials over the years. One example is Roy Orbison's Pretty Woman. Even if the original audience for that song is past the sales demo, many younger people who are still in it recognize and remember the song fondly from its secondary use. A format that harvests songs like that and uses them to add spice to a Classic Hits format isn't going to encounter large-scale tune-out the way more obscure songs from that era might. (e.g., I can probably live out the remainder of my life quite happily if I never again hear Surfing Bird, Candy Man, Hello Dolly, or 96 Tears. Or the original tribute to Sir Lancelot Vodka: In The Still of the Knight.) (...sorry, can't resist teeing up a bad pun. Too much Dan Ingram in my formative years.)
Your "over the years" is what kills you here, Weiserguy. The glow from being featured in a movie, TV show or commercial is fleeting, a matter of months, not years. Kate Bush's "Running Up That Hill" is a perfect example. White hot six months ago---now, it's run its course.

For most of your target audience, 60s and 70s songs that surfaced in other media are in most cases "some old song that I think I heard before." Or, "some old song I never heard before."

Your demographic point of reference: Someone turning 50 this year graduated high school in 1991. Someone turning 45? 1996. And the dead center of 25-54? 2001.
 
I can spin an embryonic one: There are a *lot* of 60's and 70's songs that have been used in TV shows and/or movies and/or commercials over the years. One example is Roy Orbison's Pretty Woman. Even if the original audience for that song is past the sales demo, many younger people who are still in it recognize and remember the song fondly from its secondary use. A format that harvests songs like that and uses them to add spice to a Classic Hits format isn't going to encounter large-scale tune-out the way more obscure songs from that era might. (e.g., I can probably live out the remainder of my life quite happily if I never again hear Surfing Bird, Candy Man, Hello Dolly, or 96 Tears. Or the original tribute to Sir Lancelot Vodka: In The Still of the Knight.) (...sorry, can't resist teeing up a bad pun. Too much Dan Ingram in my formative years.)
An example of this would be something I heard today on KRTH in LA: "Take it Easy"- By the Eagles. The song is from 72, nearly 51 years old. I was a kid when it came out and I'm nearly 59. Radio is more likely to play older songs now then they were 20 years ago. Stations like the Breeze (KISQ) will play some 70's, but AC stations weren't playing any 50's in 2003 and little if any 60's.
 
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