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Buffalo and Rochester May '23 trends

Per the links below. 12+ only.

And off we go....Buffalo, as usual, goes first...

Radio Industry News, Radio Show Prep, Radio Promotions, Radio Station Data, Podcast News

Then it's Rochester's turn...

http://ratings.****************/content/arb079

As always, comment away. (It turns out that this will be 102.5's last full trend.)
 
Breeze (Now STAR) has a 3 share. Obviously, they hope the name change can get them into the 5 share territory. That's no guarantee with all the confusion over these recent flips. It remains to be seen if K-Love repels the former STAR audience or they stick around for "Encouragement".

The other players remain in their usual spots. Listening habits are entrenched. It certainly seems that Audacy has given up on Buffalo as they let The Wolf limp along...
 
Breeze (Now STAR) has a 3 share. Obviously, they hope the name change can get them into the 5 share territory. That's no guarantee with all the confusion over these recent flips. It remains to be seen if K-Love repels the former STAR audience or they stick around for "Encouragement".
While it is hard to fully evaluate the K-Love transitions in their "new markets" because they don't always subscribe to ratings, I can say that it appears that there is a total transition and turnover. None of the K-love music is familiar unless the listener to the "old station" also shared with Christian stations and streams prior to the launch of the local EMF station.

There is no reason to think that a new format of any kind will attract any more than a tiny group of the cumers of the old format.
The other players remain in their usual spots. Listening habits are entrenched. It certainly seems that Audacy has given up on Buffalo as they let The Wolf limp along...
I think we will see a significant number of "cluster adjustments" in coming years where companies sell or trade small clusters to get a bigger presence in other markets. In this case, Buffalo is not a desirable cluster for Audacy and it's likely they will eventually find new owners for the rest of their stations.
 
I think we will see a significant number of "cluster adjustments" in coming years where companies sell or trade small clusters to get a bigger presence in other markets. In this case, Buffalo is not a desirable cluster for Audacy and it's likely they will eventually find new owners for the rest of their stations.
Concur. But the salient question is, will Audacy sell the remaining cluster as a whole, or parcel the units, after spinning its most profitable FM, one of the most powerful signals (102.5 @110 kW) in the market, to EMF. The Audacy Buffalo cluster now has two high profile, well-rated but payroll intensive AM talk stations (WGR 550, sports; WBEN 930, news con-talk); two foundering AM's (WWKB 1520, sports betting; WWWS 1400, urban oldies + translator 107.3); a 50kW FM (WKSE 98.5, CHR) and a rimshot FM (WLKK 107.7, country + translator 104.7).

One might foresee selling WWWS 1400 + translator 107.3 to minority (African American, female) owned WUFO 1080, a daytimer. WWWS is fulltime, with AM antenna and translator in the city.

One might foresee Audacy selling the FMs and translator as a package, but at what price? What company would want to buy into the signal saturated Buffalo market holding two FMs (arguably one and a half FMs), to compete against Cumulus' three full power FMs and Townsquare's four full power FM signals?

It's to the point that the extensive land on Big Tree Road in Hamburg, the WWKB and WGR transmitter site; and the land on Grand Island, the WBEN transmitter site, are worth more than the AM stations.

The religious operators aren't interested in AM stations; and the best FM was sold to EMF. What's the Audacy exit strategy?
 
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One might foresee Audacy selling the FMs and translator as a package, but at what price? What company would want to buy into the signal saturated Buffalo market holding two FMs (arguably one and a half FMs), to compete against Cumulus' three full power FMs and Townsquare's four full power FM signals?
I know the "banned" owner in Buffalo has been wanting to buy an FM for several years. Whether he can put the financing together to buy both FM's is the big unknown. One thing is certain, Audacy is not doing any seller financing, they will want cash or a trade that puts them in a better position in another market. Cumulus probably won't pay cash, but could possibly put a trade deal together that benefits both them and Audacy.
 
Looking at the Rochester numbers, I see that market country king WBEE has a low-rated rival in iHeart's WDVI, which generally posts shares in the low 2s. So how come iHeart doesn't get the same ridicule in this forum for WDVI that Audacy is subjected to for high-1s WLKK? Because iHeart is clearing Bobby Bones in Rochester? And what format could possibly be making more money in Rochester or Buffalo for those signals than an also-ran country format?
 
I know the "banned" owner in Buffalo has been wanting to buy an FM for several years. Whether he can put the financing together to buy both FM's is the big unknown. One thing is certain, Audacy is not doing any seller financing, they will want cash or a trade that puts them in a better position in another market. Cumulus probably won't pay cash, but could possibly put a trade deal together that benefits both them and Audacy.
Cumulus can pay cash from operations. Their issue, like several other groups, is debt service, not BCF or EBITDA.
 
I could see Cumulus being interested in the 98.5 signal, and Buddy being interested in 107.7. I'm not sure who would be interested in the AMs. They're profitable, but more of a PITA to manage and maintain. Sale of the land would seriously reduce the value of the signals. I'm no engineer, but the idea of all three stations broadcasting from the Grand Island property seems hugely problematic.
 
I could see Cumulus being interested in the 98.5 signal, and Buddy being interested in 107.7. I'm not sure who would be interested in the AMs.

In the previous discussion, it was pointed out that Cumulus syndicates conservative talk and CBS Sports Network, as well as the NFL and other play by play. So WBEN and WGR would fit well for them. But I agree that they would want to sell the tower land at some point. They've already done that with their AMs in LA & DC.
 
Looking at the Rochester numbers, I see that market country king WBEE has a low-rated rival in iHeart's WDVI, which generally posts shares in the low 2s. So how come iHeart doesn't get the same ridicule in this forum for WDVI that Audacy is subjected to for high-1s WLKK? Because iHeart is clearing Bobby Bones in Rochester? And what format could possibly be making more money in Rochester or Buffalo for those signals than an also-ran country format?
Easy answer: the one that lobs the most ridicule is one that is deeply infatuated with the Lake format on 107.7 that was dropped over 10 years ago, and has been bitter about it since
Results are just results. Take a look at the ratings history for 107.7. The Lake format is the only one that found an audience. It delivered ratings in the mid 3 range and better consistently with the highest qualitative audience in the market. Those are simply the facts. The Wolf has averaged a 1.5 during its run. Obviously, it is possible to do better if that matters. Audacy will probably sell this signal anyway like they did STAR...
 
Results are just results. Take a look at the ratings history for 107.7. The Lake format is the only one that found an audience. It delivered ratings in the mid 3 range and better consistently with the highest qualitative audience in the market. Those are simply the facts. The Wolf has averaged a 1.5 during its run. Obviously, it is possible to do better if that matters. Audacy will probably sell this signal anyway like they did STAR...
What do you mean by "qualitative"?
 
What do you mean by "qualitative"?
Highest income and Professional people. Similar audience that NPR gets. They responded to the presentation of the format. I am not suggesting they should bring the format back at this point. The ratings history just is what it is. The Wolf and the Alternative format have both averaged 1.5 ratings. The signal is small potatoes given Audacy's current crisis. A different owner could possibly do better...
 
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Results are just results. Take a look at the ratings history for 107.7. The Lake format is the only one that found an audience. It delivered ratings in the mid 3 range and better consistently with the highest qualitative audience in the market. Those are simply the facts. The Wolf has averaged a 1.5 during its run. Obviously, it is possible to do better if that matters. Audacy will probably sell this signal anyway like they did STAR...
For the record, WNSA delivered numbers that equaled or even exceeded The Lake with its sports format in the early 2000s before Adelphia‘s collapse. The station aired Sabres games, so that definitely generated big numbers on 80 nights a year. Going further back, WBYR, The Bear, as Buffalo’s only album rock station in 1986, had a book or two with ratings in the six share range, if memory serves. So, your statement that the Lake was the only format to find an audience at 107.7FM is inaccurate. Yes, the formats that followed The Lake have failed to find a significant audience. But not before. In fact, I remember The Wave finding an audience in 1988-89 before the programmers of that format began messing with the playlist. And John Casciani’s WNUC, New Country, definitely had more listeners than The Wolf does now. I’m not sure if any radio vets have held on to Arbitron books from way back to buttress my memories. Some might argue that WUWU did as well as The Lake when Doc Chmiel purchased 107.7 from religious broadcasters in the early ‘80s. I’m old enough to remember all this, tbolt, ”simply the facts.”
 
That only matters if you're a membership based operation.
Alternative and Adult Album Alternative have always underperformed in appeal to advertisers. The fans of the former are seen by advertisers as too cynical and too underemployed to be of much use as consumers of traditional products, while fans of the latter are largely 55+, set-in-their-ways folks that it takes too much time and money to persuade to buy compared with the younger, trendier listeners to contemporary country stations.
 
Alternative and Adult Album Alternative have always underperformed in appeal to advertisers. The fans of the former are seen by advertisers as too cynical and too underemployed to be of much use as consumers of traditional products, while fans of the latter are largely 55+, set-in-their-ways folks that it takes too much time and money to persuade to buy compared with the younger, trendier listeners to contemporary country stations.
Younger demos that listen to Country music are all Salt of the Earth types right? They get up at 4am to work the farm. They are perfect little consumers. People who listen to Country are never unemployed or in jail. Alternative or AAA listeners are just lazy intellectuals who mock advertisers from their parents basement. Over 55 listeners no longer spend money on anything. They are waiting to die.

Radio has a broken business model. If you put a product on the air that people care about, you should be able to monetize it with appropriate clients. I have seen stations where the sales department was the problem not the programming. It's always easier to just keep flipping formats than deal with the real issue...
 
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Younger demos that listen to Country music are all Salt of the Earth types right? They get up at 4am to work the farm. They are perfect little consumers. People who listen to Country are never unemployed or in jail. Alternative or AAA listeners are just lazy intellectuals who mock advertisers from their parents basement. Over 55 listeners no longer spend money on anything. They are waiting to die.
First, there are two types of clients.

The classic local direct is not the stereotypical "Ma & Pa" ship. It can be a car dealer with sales of millions a month, or a local personal injury attorney who spends tens of thousands on media every month. In these cases, the merchant or service provider asks new clients where they heard about them and they tabulate this against the expenditures. Further, those accounts may favor media that gives the best personal service and can also be influenced by stations they listen to themselves..

Agencies use a lot of either syndicated or proprietary research. One of the first things they know and apply is that the older a consumer, the more it takes... as in "more money"... to get a sale. At some point, any potential profit is erased. They also know that different kinds of TV shows, different sections in print and different formats on radio get different results.

Some formats generally are a harder sell, even if they are getting good 18-54 listening. Alternative rock is one of the hard sells, except in a couple of markets where there is a station that has been in format and getting results for decades. Portland, Seattle, Denver and a couple of others meet this criteria, On the other had, we have the famous case of country in New York, where media buyer prejudices and stereotypes have, for decades, made any country effort under perform (yet just outside the metro, in Jersey, "upstate" or even Connecticut, local small market stations in the format do well because local businesses find that those stations produce results.
Radio has a broken business model. If you put a product on the air that people care about, you should be able to monetize it with appropriate clients.
That is not true at all. Looking at country in New York or alternative in Philly, we find significant buyer prejudice against the format. In NYC, nearly everything is agency... big shops or local ones... and there is just not a "feel" that country gets the consumers that clients need and want. In Philly, buyers, both local direct and local agency, believe alternative listeners are not a productive target and they don't buy the local alternative station at all in proportion to its audience... to the extent that it has a 0.4 power ratio while the major local AC station has well over a 1.0 ratio.
I have seen stations where the sales department was the problem not the programming. It's always easier to just keep flipping formats than deal with the real issue...
I switched formats years ago from Beautiful Music to what would be the equivalent of country. A few days before, I presented the format to the sellers. Two of them, in various ways, said that the new format was "low class" and that they did not think it was a good idea because they knew they could not sell it. Of course, they were right... they could not sell it because I let them go on the spot.

Radio has issues today in attracting sellers because the industry is perceived by outsiders as "outdated" and ineffective. The biggest issue is finding people who can see that radio's huge reach and reasonable cost are very positive. But today's well run stations don't have bad sales staffs and the sellers they have are trained and equipped to make radio work for clients.

Your problem is that you think all of us in radio management or in advisory positions are antiquated, incompetent or just plain stupid. Sure, some groups and some stations make mistakes... so did Bud Lite... but the majority of stations are well run and doing a pretty good job of adapting to slow growth and the new competition from things like local retail budgets being sucked up by internet search based and ad based options. We had to deal with newspapers in the 30's and TV in the 50's and shoppers in the 60's and radio is discovering now how to deal with new media.
 
Alternative and Adult Album Alternative have always underperformed in appeal to advertisers.
Not everywhere. The image of stations like KROQ have made LA and other markets with a strong, heritage station good for alternative... and a couple even have, still, successful heritage AAA commercial stations. And some markets, like NYC, can't get traction for country due to buyer prejudice. There are different favorite formats for advertisers in different markets.
The fans of the former are seen by advertisers as too cynical and too underemployed to be of much use as consumers of traditional products, while fans of the latter are largely 55+, set-in-their-ways folks that it takes too much time and money to persuade to buy compared with the younger, trendier listeners to contemporary country stations.
That, in certain markets, forms part of the stereotypes attached to those formats. But for each there are exceptions. A number of markets have established and well performing heritage alternative stations, and there are still a few AAA stations that are commercial that, while getting very old listener bases, can still make money on the format.

A lot of the differences between markets have to do with heritage and image of those two rock formats. Newcomers to either option have seldom been successful in the last several decades. But even that statement has exceptions, such as the emergence of a new alternative leader in LA and the decline of a very well known heritage station.
 
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