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Is AM Already Doomed? Or Can It Be Saved?

davideduardo

Moderator/Administrator
Staff member
Our friend Barry Mishkind "The Eclectic Engineer" has written a thoughtful piece about the future of AM radio at:


"The discussion about the fate of the AM band has reached many parts of the industry – and now into Congress as well. What are the key issues? Will the Bills now moving through Congress provide the right answers? Or, is AM doomed no matter what happens? Take a look and see how this may affect you – even if you are not an AM station. "

Note: No paywall! Explore Barry's site for more interesting content with a technical focus.
 
Note: No paywall! Explore Barry's site for more interesting content with a technical focus.
I wonder how many hours it will take for this post to accumulate 500 replies.

I'm glad to see Barry is still around. I lost touch with him a couple of decades ago when the Oldradio mailing list started having a lot less activity. For years afterwards, I put DOSBox on my Linux systems specifically so I could run the Oldradio database (at least before the FCC made its history cards available). I should get back in touch with him once I get some breathing room from the project I'm dealing with.
 
Our friend Barry Mishkind "The Eclectic Engineer" has written a thoughtful piece about the future of AM radio at:

"The discussion about the fate of the AM band has reached many parts of the industry – and now into Congress as well. What are the key issues? Will the Bills now moving through Congress provide the right answers? Or, is AM doomed no matter what happens? Take a look and see how this may affect you – even if you are not an AM station. "

Note: No paywall! Explore Barry's site for more interesting content with a technical focus.
Barry is a good guy, but a brief history lesson on AM really doesn't say anything about its future. Just another old-timer talking about the AM heydays. We get enough of that already on this site.
 
Lets say AM is saved as a band. Will there be any stations that survive to broadcast over it.

There are 4,472 in the U.S. at the end of Q1 2023. That's down 12 from the end of Q2 2022. So the pace of AM stations going dark is currently 15 per year.

So there'd have to be some serious extinction event, otherwise it's 298 years before they're all gone.

My guess is the license turn-ins will accelerate and what'll be left standing for the final act will be the 50kws.
 
There are 4,472 in the U.S. at the end of Q1 2023. That's down 12 from the end of Q2 2022. So the pace of AM stations going dark is currently 15 per year.

So there'd have to be some serious extinction event, otherwise it's 298 years before they're all gone.

My guess is the license turn-ins will accelerate and what'll be left standing for the final act will be the 50kws.
I can see the snowball picking up speed if a few major stations go down.
 
I think the determining factor will be the stations that finally decide the land value of their towers far outstrips what they're likely to clear over a period of years if they keep broadcasting. And I suspect if a few owners would do that math today, they'd be surprised at how eager they are to do that.
 
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Meanwhile, The Arizona Borad of Regents - University of Arizona, have applied to move 50 kw daytimer KUAZ 1550 to a new site SE of Tucson.
Put up 3 towers. Add night-time service of 425 watts directional upgrading KUAT from Class D to Class B.
Daytime 50 kw will be directional with the same pattern.

1689204082718.png
 
Meanwhile, The Arizona Borad of Regents - University of Arizona, have applied to move 50 kw daytimer KUAZ 1550 to a new site SE of Tucson.
Put up 3 towers. Add night-time service of 425 watts directional upgrading KUAT from Class D to Class B.
Daytime 50 kw will be directional with the same pattern.

View attachment 5296

I had forgotten KUAZ was an AM daytimer (they also have two FMs, a news station and a classical station). I mean, good for them, but...the AM simulcasts the NPR news from the FM. I don't know how they think this is worth the expense.
 
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There are 4,472 in the U.S. at the end of Q1 2023. That's down 12 from the end of Q2 2022. So the pace of AM stations going dark is currently 15 per year.
But if the AMs with linked translators were allowed to keep the FM and turn off the AM, I think we would lose 40% to 50% of all AMs in the first week.
So there'd have to be some serious extinction event, otherwise it's 298 years before they're all gone.
As long as many AM's co-owned FM translators continue to be profitable, the AM will remain on.
My guess is the license turn-ins will accelerate and what'll be left standing for the final act will be the 50kws.
I wonder what the chance of giving translators permanence might be?
 
It's a chicken and egg scenario: The band only survives if there are viable stations on it. Like shortwave, if stations eventually vacate, it becomes just useless spectrum.
Half are "dead station transmitting" and maintained only to allow an FM translator
 
But if the AMs with linked translators were allowed to keep the FM and turn off the AM, I think we would lose 40% to 50% of all AMs in the first week.

Totally agree.

As long as many AM's co-owned FM translators continue to be profitable, the AM will remain on.

I wonder what the chance of giving translators permanence might be?

I think if the owners get the NAB to plead their case---"We can keep our businesses going and serve our communities if you let us sell the tower land, take the AMs dark and continue on the FMs translators", they'd have a pretty good shot.
 
As long as many AM's co-owned FM translators continue to be profitable, the AM will remain on.

I wonder what the chance of giving translators permanence might be?

I'll say this, though---and I kinda already did---if those stations did a serious analysis of how much profit they might clear over 20 years running on an FM translator versus cashing in the tower land and walking away, I'm betting all but the guys whose dream has been to own a radio station no matter what would take the money and run.
 
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