(FM only) Attrition and Format Consolidation

[kfbkfb]

Here in KC I have 11 FM stations on my car presets:
94.9 oldies
99.7 90s
101.1 classic rock
102.1 wide variety
102.5 "jack FM"
93.3 chr
96.5 alt
98.9 rock
103.3 urban
106.9 urban oldies
107.3 urban

Considering the declining state of listening to actual radio stations with an actual radio, IMHO, the KC FMs could be consolidated into:
94.9 + 102.1 + 102.5 oldies (maybe with a little more variety)
99.7 + 93.3 chr
101.1 + 96.5 + 98.9 rock (some classic rock)
103.3 + 106.9 + 107.3 urban (some oldies)

With FM station operating costs increasing and (in general) FM listening (to the actual station, not the stream) decreasing, thus making FM stations less and less profitable as time goes by, at some point in the near future, some FM station owners will likely just turn in their license to the FCC and turn off the station (and dismantle the station hardware).

When I lived in Iowa City IA, I listened to KIIK FM only from 1972-08 to 1974-10 (when KRNA FM came on), 1 station playing popular music was fine for me.

Working backwards, calculating the operating cost of a given FM station and the number of listeners desirable to advertisers that listen to this given FM station, just how many profitable FM stations (maximum power for the region) can a major market support (5 years, 10 years, 15 years down the road)?

Format consolidation seems inevitable on fewer FM stations.


Kirk Bayne

 

[seattlesarchiebunker]

I can’t imagine in the major markets (rated…let’s say number 75 and down) you’ll see many FM stations going dark anytime soon. Unless we have yet to see the true drop off point in revenues, equipment/land costs vs. station values, etc.

What I do foresee is a major nationalization of formats by major companies…something David Eduardo has talked about a bit on this site. I also foresee many of these major companies regionalizing most of their local clusters…as in, for example, all of the main studios, production, and some sales for iHeart stations in VA, DC, and MD might be based out of a “super cluster” in the DC area. You’ll hear much of the same content whether you’re in Ocean City, MD or Roanoke, VA

Smaller rated markets and rural communities will lose a few stations…mostly rimshots and non-advantageous FM translators.

 

[Mark Roberts]

With FM station operating costs increasing and (in general) FM listening (to the actual station, not the stream) decreasing, thus making FM stations less and less profitable as time goes by, at some point in the near future, some FM station owners will likely just turn in their license to the FCC and turn off the station (and dismantle the station hardware).

More likely:
1) Selling to a Christian outfit of some type. There seems to be an infinite supply of them with infinite financial backing. Most are fairly innocuous though tedious to listen to for verylong.
2) Selling to a public-radio network in market. For example, wouldn't you think that The Bridge would like to have an actual in-market signal that could, like, actually be heard in the Crossroads District where the hipsters supposedly hang out?
3) Selling to a Spanish-language broadcaster wanting to migrate from AM. Could actually work for one or two iterations.

Look at what's happened to the AM band and that could provide some clues for your thought experiment as well.

 

[Radiopaw]

More likely:
1) Selling to a Christian outfit of some type. There seems to be an infinite supply of them with infinite financial backing. Most are fairly innocuous though tedious to listen to for verylong.
2) Selling to a public-radio network in market. For example, wouldn't you think that The Bridge would like to have an actual in-market signal that could, like, actually be heard in the Crossroads District where the hipsters supposedly hang out?
3) Selling to a Spanish-language broadcaster wanting to migrate from AM. Could actually work for one or two iterations.

Look at what's happened to the AM band and that could provide some clues for your thought experiment as well.

The issue with #3 is a decent bit of Spanish broadcasters are also selling properties. Univision being the big obvious one.

I can see as radio properties become cheaper, more localized/regionalized ownership happens. I also think that costs could be scaled down reasonably in radio with the help of lawmakers.

 

[SomeRadioGuy]

Here in KC I have 11 FM stations on my car presets:
94.9 oldies
99.7 90s
101.1 classic rock
102.1 wide variety
102.5 "jack FM"
93.3 chr
96.5 alt
98.9 rock
103.3 urban
106.9 urban oldies
107.3 urban

Considering the declining state of listening to actual radio stations with an actual radio, IMHO, the KC FMs could be consolidated into:
94.9 + 102.1 + 102.5 oldies (maybe with a little more variety)
99.7 + 93.3 chr
101.1 + 96.5 + 98.9 rock (some classic rock)
103.3 + 106.9 + 107.3 urban (some oldies)

With FM station operating costs increasing and (in general) FM listening (to the actual station, not the stream) decreasing, thus making FM stations less and less profitable as time goes by, at some point in the near future, some FM station owners will likely just turn in their license to the FCC and turn off the station (and dismantle the station hardware).

When I lived in Iowa City IA, I listened to KIIK FM only from 1972-08 to 1974-10 (when KRNA FM came on), 1 station playing popular music was fine for me.

Working backwards, calculating the operating cost of a given FM station and the number of listeners desirable to advertisers that listen to this given FM station, just how many profitable FM stations (maximum power for the region) can a major market support (5 years, 10 years, 15 years down the road)?

Format consolidation seems inevitable on fewer FM stations.


Kirk Bayne

The problem then is the format becomes way too broad and a fair amount of listeners dont like that.. and someone who likes 70s sonny and cher might not like harder rock or sappy AC

Having distinct formats allows advertisers to laser target a particular audience theyre going after

 

[Kelly A]

Here in KC I have 11 FM stations on my car presets:
94.9 oldies
99.7 90s
101.1 classic rock
102.1 wide variety
102.5 "jack FM"
93.3 chr
96.5 alt
98.9 rock
103.3 urban
106.9 urban oldies
107.3 urban

Considering the declining state of listening to actual radio stations with an actual radio, IMHO, the KC FMs could be consolidated into:
94.9 + 102.1 + 102.5 oldies (maybe with a little more variety)
99.7 + 93.3 chr
101.1 + 96.5 + 98.9 rock (some classic rock)
103.3 + 106.9 + 107.3 urban (some oldies)

With FM station operating costs increasing and (in general) FM listening (to the actual station, not the stream) decreasing, thus making FM stations less and less profitable as time goes by, at some point in the near future, some FM station owners will likely just turn in their license to the FCC and turn off the station (and dismantle the station hardware).

Wow, that's unusually doom and gloom even for you Kirk.
FM radio isn't going away, probably not in our lifetimes. With the exception of AM stations, things like utility costs or capital equipment replacement costs are not expenses to focus on as being a reason why a station would throw in the towel.
The heaviest expenses are employee costs. That can include talent, whether they record tracks or are live, administrative staffing, management costs, sales, traffic/scheduling, lawyer retainers, and all the benefits that go along with full-time employees (FTE's)
Now that local studio rules have been eliminated, you see more groups centralizing certain functions. The other thing that will increase a thinning-the-herd-momentum, is smaller markets that are too radio-saturated, where the economy of the smaller community can't sustain that many stations. In other words, the advertising pie becomes sliced too thin.

When I lived in Iowa City IA, I listened to KIIK FM only from 1972-08 to 1974-10 (when KRNA FM came on), 1 station playing popular music was fine for me.

That was then, and that was you. Listeners are used to finding much more fractional formats to their choosing via things like streaming. There's no going back in time to 'full service' radio.

 

[SomeRadioGuy]

The problem then is the format becomes way too broad and a fair amount of listeners dont like that.. and someone who likes 70s sonny and cher might not like harder rock or sappy AC

Having distinct formats allows advertisers to laser target a particular audience theyre going after

And the people who like the older end of the music you propose on the consolidation wont like the newer end and vice versa.

I liek classic rock, but i dont like newer alternative stuff

 

[MVB13]

I can see chr and hot a/c combining. Basically the same stuff since the 2000s.

 

[kfbkfb]

Disney seems to be wanting to sell the Linear TV network ABC due to declining viewers, IMHO, Linear Radio is headed in the same direction.

Has anyone (or any radio research company) prepared a forecast for FM radio in 20/30/50 years?


Kirk Bayne

 

[davideduardo]

I can see chr and hot a/c combining. Basically the same stuff since the 2000s.

Why? Both work in most markets. There is a huge difference in rotations, the age of gold and the number of total currents between each format.

 

[davideduardo]

Disney seems to be wanting to sell the Linear TV network ABC due to declining viewers, IMHO, Linear Radio is headed in the same direction.

Has anyone (or any radio research company) prepared a forecast for FM radio in 20/30/50 years?

Research can't predict the future. Research is used to show how things are today. If one has annual research from the past, they can see if there are trends... but today's listeners will not tell what the will be doing tomorrow.

 

[MVB13]

Why? Both work in most markets. There is a huge difference in rotations, the age of gold and the number of total currents between each format.

They share a lot of the same music.

 

[davideduardo]

They share a lot of the same music.

The difference is in what they don't share. I have worked with stations that shared over half the songs with a sister station, and they did not share any significant percent of audience.