2024 Format Change Predictions

[michael hagerty]

You bring up a very important point that is not apparent or obvious to the many visitors to this board that don't work in radio: stations serve markets, not cities. "Markets" in radio language are sets of counties, not cities. Some markets have a dozen or more counties like Houston or New York City. Some are just one county. But no market is a "city" by itself.

Paul Drew told a great story about coming to program KFRC in 1970. He was unsure how to program to a sophisticated market (he'd done Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia).

On his first weekend, the sales manager gave him tickets to the 49ers game, which was at Kezar Stadium, built in 1925 and then crumbling (the Niners would leave for Candlestick the following year).

As Paul put it: "I got to see the people. This wasn't Nob Hill---this was Milwaukee."

The lesson he learned was that it wasn't all about the city. Working-class and middle-class people were not that different from what he'd seen elsewhere. It probably played into his decision to hire Dr. Don at KFRC. He knew.

And from ten years back home in California, I'll tell anyone who asks----you get more than about 25 miles inland almost anywhere in California and it gets real red-state real quick.

 

[Weiserguy]

...A country station won't likely ever be #1 in the ratings---but the right signal, the right programming, it could be profitable. And that's what matters.

The question is can someone do it better than KBAY?

"Someone" already has done it better than KBAY. "Someone" did it better for over 30 years. That someone was KRTY/95.3. KRTY had been owned by Empire Broadcasting, which in turn was owned by Robert Kieve*, since he acquired it in the 80's as a local, small-time, storefront operation in the San Jose suburb of Los Gatos. Bob Kieve and his team made KRTY a force in South Bay radio, as a review of the ratings in its last year-or-so of operation (just a couple years back) will show. Unfortunately, Mr. Kieve died in 2019 (or possibly it was 2020), and the station had to be put on the market for estate reasons. The high bidder ended up being EMF, so today 95.3 is just another K-LOVE repeater. But part of the deal was to move the team and the programming to the internet. So yes, it can be done better than Alpha/KBAY is currently doing it, and Someone Else who wants to try country in the Bay Area could do a whole lot worse than cutting a deal to bring the whole KRTY online operation over to their OTA signal and letting them run with it.

(* In an industry filled with charlatans and SOBs, Bob Kieve was the real deal, a genuine gentleman who believed in radio as a public service. He had worked in the Eisenhower administration, and lived into his late 90's. This is not just generic information, I've met him and am speaking from personal experience.)

 

[michael hagerty]

"Someone" already has done it better than KBAY. "Someone" did it better for over 30 years. That someone was KRTY/95.3. KRTY had been owned by Empire Broadcasting, which in turn was owned by Robert Kieve*, since he acquired it in the 80's as a local, small-time, storefront operation in the San Jose suburb of Los Gatos. Bob Kieve and his team made KRTY a force in South Bay radio, as a review of the ratings in its last year-or-so of operation (just a couple years back) will show. Unfortunately, Mr. Kieve died in 2019 (or possibly it was 2020), and the station had to be put on the market for estate reasons. The high bidder ended up being EMF, so today 95.3 is just another K-LOVE repeater. But part of the deal was to move the team and the programming to the internet. So yes, it can be done better than Alpha/KBAY is currently doing it, and Someone Else who wants to try country in the Bay Area could do a whole lot worse than cutting a deal to bring the whole KRTY online operation over to their OTA signal and letting them run with it.

(* In an industry filled with charlatans and SOBs, Bob Kieve was the real deal, a genuine gentleman who believed in radio as a public service. He had worked in the Eisenhower administration, and lived into his late 90's. This is not just generic information, I've met him and am speaking from personal experience.)

Key phrase in my post:

“.., it could be profitable. And that's what matters.

The question is can someone do it better than KBAY?”

Time doesn’t go backwards. The question is whether a new Country station, modeled on KRTY or not, could succeed economically.

 

[TheBigA]

Someone Else who wants to try country in the Bay Area could do a whole lot worse than cutting a deal to bring the whole KRTY online operation over to their OTA signal and letting them run with it.

BTW KRTY's Nate Deaton was very vocal when the change happened that he was looking for a way to do what you're talking about.

 

[TomásEstefan]

You bring up a very important point that is not apparent or obvious to the many visitors to this board that don't work in radio: stations serve markets, not cities. "Markets" in radio language are sets of counties, not cities. Some markets have a dozen or more counties like Houston or New York City. Some are just one county. But no market is a "city" by itself.

Indeed, what people call "LA" is actually 88 cities (122 if you include OC)

 

[Mark Roberts]

And from ten years back home in California, I'll tell anyone who asks----you get more than about 25 miles inland almost anywhere in California and it gets real red-state real quick.

My yardstick is this: where you see a Cattlemens steakhouse is where things are getting a little more country. Livermore might be the exception since the I-580 suburban sprawl has moved beyond there and well into Tracy.

Otherwise, I'm aware. Two branches of my mother's family moved to California just after World War I. They ended up in Turlock and Denair. Their kids, however, either moved to Missouri or to Santa Cruz, so go figure.

 

[Mark Roberts]

Key phrase in my post:

“.., it could be profitable. And that's what matters.

The question is can someone do it better than KBAY?”

Time doesn’t go backwards. The question is whether a new Country station, modeled on KRTY or not, could succeed economically.

KBAY at least recognized that its likely audience wasn't just in the South Bay - after all, it was an obvious bid to pick up the KRTY audience - but also in Contra Costa, hence turning 92.1 KKDV Walnut Creek into a KBAY repeater.

In a day and time when streaming is such a factor, the KRTY audience may well have moved over to KRTY.com, leaving little opportunity for a new entrant. It would be interesting to see some analysis on that.

 

[Mark Roberts]

The lesson he learned was that it wasn't all about the city. Working-class and middle-class people were not that different from what he'd seen elsewhere. It probably played into his decision to hire Dr. Don at KFRC. He knew.

The difference between 1970 and now is that most working-class and many middle-class people have been priced out of San Francisco, Marin, Berkeley, and Oakland. You have to be upper-middle-class, and likely highly educated, in order to afford those areas now.

 

[Mark Roberts]

I don't understand that. Does KOIT play Asian American artists that have helped make it #1? In fact is there any radio station in the Top 10 that has added Asian artists in order to appeal to the unique demos of this marker? If not, why should country?

I don't understand your lack of understanding, possibly because I lived and worked in San Francisco and the Bay Area for more than two decades and I know the on-the-ground reality.

 

[michael hagerty]

The difference between 1970 and now is that most working-class and many middle-class people have been priced out of San Francisco, Marin, Berkeley, and Oakland. You have to be upper-middle-class, and likely highly educated, in order to afford those areas now.

25 years ago, I had lunch with a California disc jockey who had worked in San Francisco, went to L.A. for a number of years, and then returned to the Bay Area. We were talking about real estate prices (I had just seen a sign in Marin that said "from the low one millions"), and he told me that the reason he was able to come back was that he had not sold his Bay Area house during his time in Southern California. At the time of our lunch, he had four years left on his mortgage, with a payment of $725 a month.

 

[TheBigA]

I don't understand your lack of understanding, possibly because I lived and worked in San Francisco and the Bay Area for more than two decades and I know the on-the-ground reality.

I don't understand why you think why country music has to add Asian artists, when other genres succeed without having Asian artists. Explain that to me. I can bring up the success of KSAN as a country station for 20 years.

In the Bay Area the primary distinction is between Chinese (mostly Cantonese speakers...some of whom are third-plus generation Americans) and the Indian subcontinent. Yes, programming to those two audiences is quite distinct.

I understand that. That doesn't explain why country needs to add Asians and other genres don't.

 

[Mark Roberts]

Part of the answer to that question lies in the fact that radio does not test against Asians nor does it consider them significantly in music testing because Nielsen does not break out "Asian" as it does "Black" and "Hispanic".

There's the blind spot right there.

Second, "Asian" is not anything but a geographic construct. Then there are significant Chinese, Vietnamese, Thai, Korean, Indian, Philippine, Bangladesh and other origins with each nation having a distinct language.... and some having several or even many languages

In the Bay Area the primary distinction is between Chinese (mostly Cantonese speakers...some of whom are third-plus generation Americans) and the Indian subcontinent. Yes, programming to those two audiences is quite distinct. In the South Bay, there is also a substantial Vietnamese community, refugees from the war, and, naturally, programming to that audience is different yet again.

But we're going down a rabbit hole that a semi-serious remark that I made really doesn't justify.

Third, it is a lot harder getting along well in the US if you only speak Tagalog than if you only speak Spanish.

It's unusual to find a Filipino who doesn't speak at least some English, due, of course, to the American occupation in the earlier portions of the 20th century.

Even with all that, it seems to me that focusing on language acquisition as the primary factor in programming is missing the point. Especially in an age where representation of one's ethnic group is increasingly important, cultural identification has to be taken into account. What's most likely is that there will be a mixture of American culture and one's ancestral culture.

Chinese New Year is a big honkin' deal in the Bay Area.

If I told you about Black cowboys in Oakland, would you believe me?

 

[Mark Roberts]

I don't understand why you think why country music has to add Asian artists, when other genres succeed without having Asian artists.

Lack of alternatives.

 

[Mark Roberts]

25 years ago, I had lunch with a California disc jockey who had worked in San Francisco, went to L.A. for a number of years, and then returned to the Bay Area. We were talking about real estate prices (I had just seen a sign in Marin that said "from the low one millions"), and he told me that the reason he was able to come back was that he had not sold his Bay Area house during his time in Southern California. At the time of our lunch, he had four years left on his mortgage, with a payment of $725 a month.

And he had his property tax increases capped at 2% per year thanks to Proposition 13!

 

[TheBigA]

Lack of alternatives.

Explain

 

[michael hagerty]

And he had his property tax increases capped at 2% per year thanks to Proposition 13!

The trick is to not take your foot off the bag by selling the house unless you're sure you'll never want to come back to California. Ride that equity.

 

[Mark Roberts]

The trick is to not take your foot off the bag by selling the house unless you're sure you'll never want to come back to California. Ride that equity.

And also to be in a place where you can get homeowners' insurance. We're discovering that the market for that insurance has collapsed in many parts of California due to wildfire claims in previous years. There have been some tense moments for us the past several weeks.

 

[michael hagerty]

And also to be in a place where you can get homeowners' insurance. We're discovering that the market for that insurance has collapsed in many parts of California due to wildfire claims in previous years. There have been some tense moments for us the past several weeks.

True. Sorry you're going through that.

 

[Mark Roberts]

If this was serious, would 102.1 be a good candidate maybe? I don’t see them changing their downwards trajectory and there isn’t many other alternatives it seems.

Then-Entercom tried it years ago at 95.7 with its "Wolf" brand. It was more like a puppy.

Cumulus tried LMA'ing KSJO with its "Nash" brand. There were too many coverage problems and then Cumulus ran out of money, the LMA lapsed, and it was back to Bollywood for KSJO. Of course, the Nash brand has dwindled over time anyway.

iHeart seems to be doing OK with what it's got. Likewise for Bonneville.

Yeah, 102.1 is probably the most obvious candidate but I would always be prepared for something coming from left field. As readers can probably tell by now, I'm not too fond of handicapping these things, just like I've never been to Golden Gate Fields.

 

[Weiserguy]

Then-Entercom tried it years ago at 95.7 with its "Wolf" brand. It was more like a puppy.
[...]
Yeah, 102.1 is probably the most obvious candidate but I would always be prepared for something coming from left field. As readers can probably tell by now, I'm not too fond of handicapping these things, just like I've never been to Golden Gate Fields.

I agree with you, to an extent. That extent is the difference in signal between 95.7 (which has deficiencies as a "full-market" signal) and 102.1 (which is solid everyplace except the far South Bay and the Tri-Valley).