The 2024 predictions thread

[Tim from Springfield IL]

I'll take a chance on a few:

--Super Bowl LVIII commercials will be panned both by critics and on these boards (on the Worst Commercials of all time thread on the Classic TV side) as among the worst and/or ridiculous ever (i.e., you're left asking "What?" after seeing it)

--At least one major awards show will announce the move to streaming only

--CBS will move Frosty the Snowman and/or Rudolph to Paramount+

--More markets get their first ATSC 3.0 stations, even a few 100+ DMAs. Some via an LD station

--More smaller cable systems will ditch traditional linear cable for streaming only, perhaps even one of the major cable companies. Some may do a hybrid (keeping a Lifeline and/or "legacy" 2-99 lineup linear while everything else goes streaming)

--Comcast/Xfinity announces the migration to an all-X1 lineup by the end of 2025. Everything beyond Digital Starter and Music Choice goes X1 and Xfinity Stream only by the end of 2024. Comcast also finally gets around to dropping SD versions of cable channels for which HD feeds are available (that should have been done 5 years or so ago).

--Comcast experiments with streaming-only in some markets (via Xfinity Stream), but keeps a lifeline basic cable lineup in those areas via X1 (just locals, shopping, religion, PEG only, then the rest all streaming). Also annouces that new customers will only receive an Xfinity Stream box, with plans to go to all Xfinity Stream by 2027 or 2028

--Congress and/or state legislatures intervene in cable network and local station carriage disputes. At least one state passes a law mandating cable and satellite operators there to keep carrying local channels which are subject to a carriage dispute

--Indirectly related to broadcasting: SEC announces plans to expand by either 2 or 4 teams, sending out invites. In the wake of being left out of the CFP despite being undefeated this year, Florida State announces they will jump ship to the SEC from the ACC

 

[AbrahamJSimpson]

how accurate were the 2023 predictions?

Is it possible to rank that in negative numbers?

 

[Tim from Springfield IL]

One of the Super Bowl LVIII commercials will be a new one for Jardiance.

 

[Tim from Springfield IL]

Either HBO/Cinemax or Paramount/Showtime (or perhaps both) drops all of their linear cable channels in favor of the HBO Max and Paramount with Showtime streaming apps only.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

I'll take a chance on a few:

--Super Bowl LVIII commercials will be panned both by critics and on these boards (on the Worst Commercials of all time thread on the Classic TV side) as among the worst and/or ridiculous ever (i.e., you're left asking "What?" after seeing it)

--At least one major awards show will announce the move to streaming only

--CBS will move Frosty the Snowman and/or Rudolph to Paramount+

--More markets get their first ATSC 3.0 stations, even a few 100+ DMAs. Some via an LD station

--More smaller cable systems will ditch traditional linear cable for streaming only, perhaps even one of the major cable companies. Some may do a hybrid (keeping a Lifeline and/or "legacy" 2-99 lineup linear while everything else goes streaming)

--Comcast/Xfinity announces the migration to an all-X1 lineup by the end of 2025. Everything beyond Digital Starter and Music Choice goes X1 and Xfinity Stream only by the end of 2024. Comcast also finally gets around to dropping SD versions of cable channels for which HD feeds are available (that should have been done 5 years or so ago).

--Comcast experiments with streaming-only in some markets (via Xfinity Stream), but keeps a lifeline basic cable lineup in those areas via X1 (just locals, shopping, religion, PEG only, then the rest all streaming). Also annouces that new customers will only receive an Xfinity Stream box, with plans to go to all Xfinity Stream by 2027 or 2028

I can see Comcast Xfinity doing streaming only in places like the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose TV Market as a test case given that there are local TV stations that has de-emphasize channel numbers like Comcast owned KNTV's NBC Bay Area as part of the move to get more viewers to their owned app Peacock.

 

[tall_guy1]

Bill Maher finally gets himself cancelled. He has been circling the drain for years anyway.

Hulu shuts down its solo app and merges into Disney Plus, and several other streamers fold into each other. I know the second part is already true.

Peacock merges with Paramount Plus.

More shows go to free streamers as paid services shed their shows.

 

[Y2kTheNewOldies]

Hulu shuts down its solo app and merges into Disney Plus, and several other streamers fold into each other. I know the second part is already true.

Peacock merges with Paramount Plus.

More shows go to free streamers as paid services shed their shows.

Umm Comcast can't merge with Paramount though.

Disney+ and Hulu merging because of the same owner OK that can happen but then again different median demos between Hulu and Disney+ might prevent that from happening and Disney will continue their apps bundle.

$148 million damages verdict adds to Rudy Giuliani's financial woes as he awaits his criminal trial

The stunning $148 million judgment against Rudy Giuliani over his lies about two Georgia election workers marks a new low point for the man once lauded as “America’s mayor."

apnews.com

Rudy Giuliani gets hit with 2 more counts in Smartmatic's defamation lawsuit

A New York appeals court also gave Smartmatic another shot at Fox Corporation, the parent company of Fox News.

www.businessinsider.com

Here is another one Fox News has to go to court for the Smartmatic trial and the two Georgia Election workers who were targeted by Trump allies would have to go to court for the Smartmatic Trial against Fox News and Rudy Giuliani over defamation.

A criminal trial awaits Rudy Giuliani in Georgia. He is an alleged unnamed co-conspirator in a federal indictment against Donald Trump. And now he’s been ordered to pay a sum he surely cannot afford.

The $148 million verdict in a defamation case brought by two former Georgia election workers marks a new low point for the man once lauded as “America’s mayor,” whose advocacy of Donald Trump’s false election claims has led to criminal charges and hefty legal bills. And the jury’s verdict could be a troubling sign for Giuliani as he gears up to defend himself against charges in Georgia that could land him behind bars.

“It’s like everything is crashing down on him,” said Nick Akerman, a New York attorney who briefly worked alongside Giuliani in the federal prosecutors’ office there. “He hasn’t come to grips with what he has done to his life. He has completely destroyed himself.”

 

[michael hagerty]

Bill Maher finally gets himself cancelled. He has been circling the drain for years anyway.

Maybe.

Hulu shuts down its solo app and merges into Disney Plus.

There'll be a merger---Disney has already said so. Expect the mothership to be Hulu, with a Disney+ tier within.

Peacock merges with Paramount Plus.

Not gonna happen. Paramount+ goes to whoever buys Paramount (unlikely to be Universal). Peacock probably slinks off to being a tier inside Amazon Prime.

More shows go to free streamers as paid services shed their shows.

What free streamers?

 

[tall_guy1]

Maybe.



There'll be a merger---Disney has already said so. Expect the mothership to be Hulu, with a Disney+ tier within.



Not gonna happen. Paramount+ goes to whoever buys Paramount (unlikely to be Universal). Peacock probably slinks off to being a tier inside Amazon Prime.



What free streamers?

Free ones like Tubi. Paramount and Universal can co-own a streamer like Sky Showtime in other places perhaps. The companies will not merge, just the streamer.

 

[AbrahamJSimpson]

The companies will not merge, just the streamer.

Good lord, just no.

 

[michael hagerty]

Free ones like Tubi. Paramount and Universal can co-own a streamer like Sky Showtime in other places perhaps. The companies will not merge, just the streamer.

Paramount+ offers select episodes of certain shows free. Beyond that very limited offer, it's a pay service, as is Peacock, which ditched its free tier earlier this year.

Tubi? Most producers would consider that a fate worse than death for their shows.

The shakeout happens in '24 or '25 ( a lot of that will depend on regulatory appeal of a Paramount deal, if there is one).

Max (the former HBO Max) survives and could be bigger if Warner Bros. Discovery acquires Paramount's content (not just spitballing---see Friday's Hollywood Reporter: “For Sale” Sign on Paramount Will Shape Shari Redstone’s Legacy).

If the WBD-Paramount deal happens, look for Paramount+ to be folded into Max.

If CBS is spun off from Paramount, it could do a deal to stay on Paramount+ or look for a stronger place to land.

We know Disney+ and Hulu will share one platform. Again, bet on Hulu being the platform and Disney+ being an available extra-cost tier on that platform.

Netflix is very profitable and not going anywhere.

Amazon Prime survives because it's part of an Amazon Prime membership. They haven't had to make a case, business or promotionally, for themselves as a stand-alone streaming platform. They're in 167 million U.S. households and have a 99% renewal rate.

Apple TV+ probably continues as a boutique offering because Apple knows how to do that really well. Unless there's a merger of Apple and a major entertainment company, Apple TV+ is never going to be a major streamer.

Peacock almost certainly ends up as an extra-cost tier on Amazon Prime.

 

[tall_guy1]

Paramount+ offers select episodes of certain shows free. Beyond that very limited offer, it's a pay service, as is Peacock, which ditched its free tier earlier this year.

Tubi? Most producers would consider that a fate worse than death for their shows.

The shakeout happens in '24 or '25 ( a lot of that will depend on regulatory appeal of a Paramount deal, if there is one).

Max (the former HBO Max) survives and could be bigger if Warner Bros. Discovery acquires Paramount's content (not just spitballing---see Friday's Hollywood Reporter: “For Sale” Sign on Paramount Will Shape Shari Redstone’s Legacy).

If the WBD-Paramount deal happens, look for Paramount+ to be folded into Max.

If CBS is spun off from Paramount, it could do a deal to stay on Paramount+ or look for a stronger place to land.

We know Disney+ and Hulu will share one platform. Again, bet on Hulu being the platform and Disney+ being an available extra-cost tier on that platform.

Netflix is very profitable and not going anywhere.

Amazon Prime survives because it's part of an Amazon Prime membership. They haven't had to make a case, business or promotionally, for themselves as a stand-alone streaming platform. They're in 167 million U.S. households and have a 99% renewal rate.

Apple TV+ probably continues as a boutique offering because Apple knows how to do that really well. Unless there's a merger of Apple and a major entertainment company, Apple TV+ is never going to be a major streamer.

Peacock almost certainly ends up as an extra-cost tier on Amazon Prime.

That would make WBD too big I think and anti trust laws would probably not allow it. Maybe AMC Networks gets it.

 

[tall_guy1]

Not a media prediction, but "Santa" Cokes return late 2024 for the holidays.

 

[michael hagerty]

That would make WBD too big I think and anti trust laws would probably not allow it.

WBD with Paramount would still be considerably smaller than Disney after it swallowed the entertainment side of FOX.

The only thing Disney had to do to satisfy the DOJ's anti-trust concerns was to divest the FOX regional sports networks, because of Disney's ownership of ESPN.

The Walt Disney Company Required to Divest Twenty-Two Regional Sports Networks in Order to Complete Acquisition of Certain Assets from Twenty-First Century Fox

“American consumers have benefitted from head-to-head competition between Disney and Fox’s cable sports programming that ultimately has prevented cable television subscription prices from rising even higher,” said Assistant Attorney General Makan Delrahim of the Justice Department’s Antitrust...

www.justice.gov

There's nothing like that at stake in a WBD acquisition of Paramount. It's simply the weakest of the old-school movie studios being sold to a stronger one.

Maybe AMC Networks gets it.

AMC Networks' market cap is $865 million. Paramount's is $10 billion.

 

[Tim from Springfield IL]

The phrase "Cut The Stream" will enter the everyday parlance in 2024. With streaming services starting to rival cable prices, if not surpass them.

A Digital Trends article already is calling 2024 "the year you need to have an antenna."

2024 is the year you need to have an antenna for your TV | Digital Trends

With seemingly everything requiring a monthly subscription these days, 2024 should be the year you consider an over-the-air antenna for free television.

www.digitaltrends.com

 

[michael hagerty]

The phrase "Cut The Stream" will enter the everyday parlance in 2024. With streaming services starting to rival cable prices, if not surpass them.

That depends on how many you have. Amazon Prime is $14.99 a month. One more at that price and you’re a couple cents under $30.

 

[tall_guy1]

WBD with Paramount would still be considerably smaller than Disney after it swallowed the entertainment side of FOX.

The only thing Disney had to do to satisfy the DOJ's anti-trust concerns was to divest the FOX regional sports networks, because of Disney's ownership of ESPN.

The Walt Disney Company Required to Divest Twenty-Two Regional Sports Networks in Order to Complete Acquisition of Certain Assets from Twenty-First Century Fox

“American consumers have benefitted from head-to-head competition between Disney and Fox’s cable sports programming that ultimately has prevented cable television subscription prices from rising even higher,” said Assistant Attorney General Makan Delrahim of the Justice Department’s Antitrust...

www.justice.gov

There's nothing like that at stake in a WBD acquisition of Paramount. It's simply the weakest of the old-school movie studios being sold to a stronger one.



AMC Networks' market cap is $865 million. Paramount's is $10 billion.

I think they would own too many linear cable networks, though. Practically all of basic cable would be theirs if Paramount was sold to them (they would also own Showtime and HBO which is already theirs.) There would just be the Disney, NBC, and a few AMC channels elsewhere for entertainment.

 

[michael hagerty]

I think they would own too many linear cable networks, though. Practically all of basic cable would be theirs if Paramount was sold to them...

There are 153 linear channels.

All 153 Linear TV Channels Ranked by 2023 Viewership

There are now 153 non-syndicated linear (broadcast and cable, including premium) TV channels, an we've ranked all of them by their 2023 viewership.

www.indiewire.com

A WBD-Paramount merger would not give them "practically all" or anything close to that.

You seem to be confusing anti-trust, which is meant to prevent outright monopolies, with anti-consolidation, and consolidation is part of the life cycle of industries taught in Econ 101.

 

[Loverofradio]

Yes, but will Elon buy a radio station to do that?

Is KROI still available? 😂

 

[Loverofradio]

I think nbc gets nba rights back. Unfortunately, I think it’ll be one game and many weeks maybe Peacock exclusive