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The DFW Market…in the year 2043?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 76036
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May not be the DFW market, by 2043, with the way the Metroplex is continuously growing. Something like Waco-Sherman-Denison-Dallas-Fort Worth-Waxahachie-Greenville will be more of a real representation by then.
 
It's been said that the DFW area will quit growing north when the North Dallas suburbs hit the Red River, and I think that is likely true (although it may take more than another twenty years for that to happen). It is also true that the Cedar Hill class C FMs do not come in that well when you get that far north. For all the reasons already discussed here, those stations cannot move their towers north.

But unlike some other folks here, I don't believe that FM radio will be dead and abandoned in twenty years. It may be substantially altered from what it is today, but I do expect it will be around in some form. Worst case is that it will be all religious satellators by then -- but assuming that doesn't happen, one possibility is that the stations broadcasting from Cedar Hill will start buying up the multitude of rimshots that broadcast from the northern edge of the metro area. Those stations cover well into Oklahoma, so the combined coverage would be sufficient to cover the entire metro no matter how far north is grows.
 
But unlike some other folks here, I don't believe that FM radio will be dead and abandoned in twenty years. It may be substantially altered from what it is today, but I do expect it will be around in some form.

Correct. In some form, radio will always be around. The way we are consuming it and the way it is defined, however, are evolving and will continue to do so. As an example, I don’t remember anyone considering Pandora to be radio 20 years ago. Today, most everyone sees it that way and doesn’t even slow down to think about it. Music and talk as entertainment will always have a place in the market, probably a strong one, but they may well not be places on the public airwaves.
 
May not be the DFW market, by 2043, with the way the Metroplex is continuously growing. Something like Waco-Sherman-Denison-Dallas-Fort Worth-Waxahachie-Greenville will be more of a real representation by then.
i can see the entire market be consolidated to the "Northern Texas/Southwest Arkansas/Southern Oklahoma" market.
 
i can see the entire market be consolidated to the "Northern Texas/Southwest Arkansas/Southern Oklahoma" market.
Doubtful. Media-defined metros for both TV and radio are set by Nielsen and use metrics that include commuting patterns. And those by-and-large follow metro definitions set forth by the US Census Bureau. Despite massive growth, the DFW Nielsen-defined radio metro has not been expanded since the late 70s.
There aren't a lot of people making daily commutes into the DFW area from Texarkana or Hugo. (Yes, I'm sure anecdotally someone can give an example of such a commute, but statistically speaking those are anomalies.)
While not every county in the US is part of a radio metro, every county does belong to a specific TV DMA, and the Tyler, OKC and Shreveport DMAs that make up much of those areas aren't going anywhere... and yes, the Sherman-Ada DMA still holds its own thanks to KXII and KTEN. What is more likely is that the media landscape is redefined and reshaped over the next 20 years in ways we can't presently imagine. There may not even be local "markets" the way we know them today.

Nielsen map - Radio metros colored in by market size; TV DMAs broken out by the (hard to see) red boundaries.
"Sherman-Ada" is in italics because while it is a TV DMA, it does not have a corresponding radio metro.
1704724313154.png
 
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It's been said that the DFW area will quit growing north when the North Dallas suburbs hit the Red River, and I think that is likely true (although it may take more than another twenty years for that to happen).
The DFW urban sprawl is continuing to explode north of the Highway 380 corridor between Denton and McKinney, so the Red River boundary isn’t hyberpole. I wonder if those northern counties including Cooke, Grayson, and perhaps Montague and Fannin will essentially become what Orange County is to the greater Los Angeles market…somewhat “their own thing” but still part of a huge demographic area.
one possibility is that the stations broadcasting from Cedar Hill will start buying up the multitude of rimshots that broadcast from the northern edge of the metro area. Those stations cover well into Oklahoma, so the combined coverage would be sufficient to cover the entire metro no matter how far north is grows.
If the trend continues towards national networks for various formats (as is the case in most other countries) simulcasts between the Cedar Hill sticks and the northern rimshots are most likely. EMF is light years ahead of everyone else in this regard.
 
i can see the entire market be consolidated to the "Northern Texas/Southwest Arkansas/Southern Oklahoma" market.
There are two different "market" standards. The Census and OMB metros are based on commerce and the concept of commercial hubs. They are called Metropolitan Statistical Areas, or MSAs.

Nielsen configures markets based on the coverage of the central city (or cities) by local stations. They call them Metro Survey Areas, also MSAs.

Often the Census Metros are the same as the Nielsen ones. But they can be very different.

Each year, Nielsen evaluates the markets and determines if counties need to be added or removed. The basis is principal founded in radio listening.

Until such time as over the air radio is not the primary source of local audio consumption, the existing Metro Survey Areas will not change. The coverage of the principal stations is more or less static, so there is no way for most markets to expand.

A good example is Houston, which over the last two decades has added and lost fringe area counties constantly and consistently. In any case, they are low population areas and don't affect the numbers significantly.
 
Doubtful. Media-defined metros for both TV and radio are set by Nielsen and use metrics that include commuting patterns. And those by-and-large follow metro definitions set forth by the US Census Bureau. Despite massive growth, the DFW Nielsen-defined radio metro has not been expanded since the late 70s.
Important to explain: TV metros are very different as they include areas where the principal cable viewing was always to stations that can only be viewed via cable. That is why you have the Salt Lake City metro with hunks of Wyoming and Montana in it and the Denver metro with bits of Wyoming and Montana as well.

There is a confusion with the Census / OMB definition, which is commerce based and called a Metropolitan Statististical Area.

Radio metros (Metro Survey Areas) are based on having a majority of listening going to the central zone stations and not to stations from other markets or unrated counties that have a majority of listening to local options.
There aren't a lot of people making daily commutes into the DFW area from Texarkana or Hugo. (Yes, I'm sure anecdotally someone can give an example of such a commute, but statistically speaking those are anomalies.)
While not every county in the US is part of a radio metro, every county does belong to a specific TV DMA, and the Tyler, OKC and Shreveport DMAs that make up much of those areas aren't going anywhere... and yes, the Sherman-Ada DMA still holds its own thanks to KXII and KTEN. What is more likely is that the media landscape is redefined and reshaped over the next 20 years in ways we can't presently imagine. There may not even be local "markets" the way we know them today.
Absolutely. The radio basis for market definitions is "majority of listening". But with OTA listening declining, we are likely to see the Census definition take precedent over the listening criteria. That would make the two market definitions easier to "match" with marketing plans by advertisers, which is what it is all about.
 
Correct. In some form, radio will always be around. The way we are consuming it and the way it is defined, however, are evolving and will continue to do so. As an example, I don’t remember anyone considering Pandora to be radio 20 years ago. Today, most everyone sees it that way and doesn’t even slow down to think about it. Music and talk as entertainment will always have a place in the market, probably a strong one, but they may well not be places on the public airwaves.
Anyone who does not think that audio without pictures in any form is not "radio" is not listening to what consumers are doing, thinking and buying.

The word "radio" has been redefined. Such things happen often in language. Anyone who does not understand the metamorphosis of language just need to compare the 1950 definition of "gay" with today's version.
 
100 year old AM radio could have a little time left. AM radio, over the next 20+ years, could actually be a lot of fun for those of us non-profit types. If only it could be deregulated.

But it has to be made cheap. Think about it. Why can 500 watt KKDA 730 cover most of the 50 by 50 mile DFW market? How does 250 watt KYTY 810 manage to blanket all of San Antonio? And even if a 500 watt AM can only cover 10 by 10 miles with 5 mV/M, that could handle most towns and small cities. Unregulated, lots of us here could figure out how to build a 500 watt AM transmitter and make an inverted L antenna with 10 or 20 ground radials for under a few thousand bucks. No towers.

Unregulated, we would go back to the 1920's anarchy/fiasco of having to move frequencies often. But what fun, right? Most cars would still have a muddy sounding receiver and many of us would still have home/office radios where the quality of AM vs FM is nearly indistinguishable.

Then...after 20 years...well the receivers are gone and it's all over!! Its been fun.
 
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