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Latest Cumulus Results

$98 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2023.
That advertising rebound has been "just around the corner" for quite a while now.

"Looking ahead, though national advertisers are expressing interest in increasing their radio buys, as of yet, ad demand remains choppy, reducing our visibility into the rest of 2024. That said, our industry-leading performance during similarly weak macro environments gives us significant confidence in our ability to navigate through this one and rebound strongly when the advertising market improves."

Full Story:
https://news.****************/cgi-b...9y0EpzSFaYjauyHqphlULJdH9LouQWx2SvD62G7UJC7wM
 
I keep reading these comments about political advertising being so important. Cumulus was planning on political being a savior, and that didn't happen. Those layoffs you keep reading about are real. You can't pay people when you lose $100 million.

‘Negative Macro Headwinds,’ Loss Of Political Drive Q4 Revenue Down 12% At Cumulus.

In the meantime, Cumulus is looking to increase foreign investment. They have an FCC waiver that allows 100% foreign. Now a Singapore company owns 10%, and Cumulus is required to inform the FCC:

 
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I'm not sure how you spin losing $98 million in a quarter as "industry leading performance".

As the Big A points out, others haven't posted their results from that quarter yet. You could, however, theoretically be an "industry leading performer" by simply losing less money than your peers in the industry.

It's kind of like how the "fastest growing radio station" is usually code for "we're a cellar dweller, but we have twice as many people listening now as we did a few months ago."
 
Cumulus says it's growing its digital business due to a weak ad market:


The fact is that this has been a priority since emerging from bankruptcy. The ONLY area of growth for radio is digital. On-air is not paying for itself. Is digital enough to replace advertising? No. But at some point it could be. Other than investing in other unrelated businesses, this is the only way for radio companies to remain viable.
 
So are we admitting that over the air advertising sales are not going to be enough to keep this trains running? Digital is like adding a Hot Fudge Sundae to a BIGA MAC Meal Deal. It can only account for som much of the overall $$$. How do are friends at Cumulus increase local sales? I mean 400 station. They loose $100 a QTR. That's "technically" a $1M a station if you don;t tale market size/revs into exact consideration. Is there "a BigAWay Out??"
 
Is there "a BigAWay Out??"

They call that a rhetorical question, don't they Tibbs?

Of course there is. Advertising sales only makes sense when you can deliver large numbers. Consolidation helped provide those numbers 25 years ago. But unfortunately radio is not the most efficient tool advertisers have anymore. In fact this is starting to become a problem for TV companies as well. That's why we're seeing radio companies selling to non-commercial religious operators, who don't have to deal with demanding advertisers.

There is no way to 'increase local sales' if you can't deliver a bigger number to advertisers. The only way to do that is create more inventory. That means either add more minutes of advertising per hour, or create more content outside of the air signal that you can sell. Which would you prefer? Cumulus is choosing to create more non-broadcast content.
 
Of course there is. Advertising sales only makes sense when you can deliver large numbers. Consolidation helped provide those numbers 25 years ago.

Radio has, historically, always struggled with this. In the days of 7, 7 and 7, radio stations tended to be part of other companies. Those companies felt radio drove business to their other operations, and those other operations helped sustain the radio stations. I know half (or slightly more than half) of commercial radio stations were losing money in 1990, and I seem to remember David saying that was the case as far back as 1960.

In fact this is starting to become a problem for TV companies as well. That's why we're seeing radio companies selling to non-commercial religious operators, who don't have to deal with demanding advertisers.

TV is struggling badly from an advertising standpoint. Something I've noticed in the small market where I live is that some of the advertisers we used to get when I worked in radio, at least partially because TV was too expensive, are now advertising on TV. I don't know if that's a trend everywhere, and I haven't talked to anyone who is in charge of making those decisions here. I would, however, expect one of the reason they're advertising on TV today is because it's more affordable than it used to be. A friend of mine in an adjacent market switched from advertising on the radio to TV around 2006-07 because he found a cheap deal advertising on the NBC affiliate's Weather Plus digital subchannel that included a handful of spots on the main TV channel as a bonus. He was able to get that deal for the same price he was getting for being the last spot every day on the Sean Hannity show on the talk station in town. He also said he quickly saw results from being on TV, including an occasional caller asking, "Is this the guy on the roof in the commercials?".

There is no way to 'increase local sales' if you can't deliver a bigger number to advertisers. The only way to do that is create more inventory. That means either add more minutes of advertising per hour, or create more content outside of the air signal that you can sell. Which would you prefer? Cumulus is choosing to create more non-broadcast content.

At the risk of sounding like John Madden or Len Dawson, there is also no way to increase local sales when you don't have available clients. I'm aware of a major market radio cluster that had roughly 60 salespeople twenty years ago and only has about a dozen today. If it staffed the sales team back up to 60, everybody'd starve. As we've discussed multiple times before, you can't get back customers who went out of business during the Great Recession.

Digital seems to get customers who either don't buy radio or buy radio sparingly. I hear a lot more ads for my local Kroger when streaming than I do on the radio, same for McDonald's. Even Walmart occasionally buys digital when it never buys radio. I don't know if it'll ever be enough to regain profitability, but radio gets far too little credit for finding ways to get those clients, even though it's not with the transmitter. Those of us from the programming side don't like to think about it and hate to hear it, but radio is a sales and marketing operation.
 
Digital seems to get customers who either don't buy radio or buy radio sparingly. I hear a lot more ads for my local Kroger when streaming than I do on the radio, same for McDonald's. Even Walmart occasionally buys digital when it never buys radio. I don't know if it'll ever be enough to regain profitability, but radio gets far too little credit for finding ways to get those clients, even though it's not with the transmitter. Those of us from the programming side don't like to think about it and hate to hear it, but radio is a sales and marketing operation.

Radio became as dependent on local ads as newspapers did with classifieds, and they're both in the same situation for basically the same reason.

The great things about digital that make it better than radio is: (1) its unregulated, (2) You can add video, (3) you have a global audience, so the size of your audience isn't limited by market size, and (4) you can keep adding stations without ownership limits.

With radio, the whole purpose is quantity: Increasing audience to make advertisers happy. With digital, you can focus more on quality, since the potential audience is bigger, and there are no limits to the number of stations.
 
TV is struggling badly from an advertising standpoint.
The problem is there is too much TV. You got the OTA networks, the local OTA stations, Cable networks, spots on local cable, national streaming, local streaming spots, Youtube, etc.. It's just insane the competition for ad dollars today compared to the "old days."
 
Radio became as dependent on local ads as newspapers did with classifieds, and they're both in the same situation for basically the same reason.
In smaller rated markets (those outside the top 25 to 30) nearly all business has always been local direct or local agencies that behave a lot like direct accounts. Even back when networks were important... in the pre-TV days... local small market stations did not get network revenue in any case..

The bigger the market, the more agency business there is. But it comes at a cost of an agency commission and a rep firm commission. And agency rates have to be competitive as a station is not selling relationships or "my friend from Rotary" and such.
The great things about digital that make it better than radio is: (1) its unregulated, (2) You can add video, (3) you have a global audience, so the size of your audience isn't limited by market size, and (4) you can keep adding stations without ownership limits.
That is fine for bigger groups and larger market stations. But the station in Ishpeming or Las Cruces or Key West can't benefit easily to this as there is not enough local revenue to support the staff and nothing a small market station can offer that has any appeal outside of the home market.
With radio, the whole purpose is quantity: Increasing audience to make advertisers happy. With digital, you can focus more on quality, since the potential audience is bigger, and there are no limits to the number of stations.
I just did a quick tab on some year-old data and there are nearly 9000 AM or FM stations in the US that have less than 50,000 persons in their "primary" coverage area. That is more than half of all licensed (non-translator) stations in the US that have pretty much no opportunity to capitalize on digital revenue other than the way companies like Townsquare are doing... and that is in much bigger markets.
 
But the station in Ishpeming or Las Cruces or Key West can't benefit easily to this as there is not enough local revenue to support the staff and nothing a small market station can offer that has any appeal outside of the home market.

It doesn't matter where you're based. With home studios, you can be in a different country and create radio programming for the US. But you can't do it by focusing on your own geography. You have to think global. That's what record labels do. That's what TV producers do. That's what some radio people do. Consider Sirius. They operate out of a dozen different studios around the country. None of the listeners know or care. Anyone can do radio that way using the internet.

That is more than half of all licensed (non-translator) stations in the US that have pretty much no opportunity to capitalize on digital revenue other than the way companies like Townsquare are doing... and that is in much bigger markets.

Which is why you don't target a local audience when you create digital content. Joe Rogan isn't aiming at a local audience. That's how radio stations have to start thinking. Because the local money is drying up. But the demand for great content is not.
 
It doesn't matter where you're based. With home studios, you can be in a different country and create radio programming for the US. But you can't do it by focusing on your own geography. You have to think global. That's what record labels do. That's what TV producers do. That's what some radio people do. Consider Sirius. They operate out of a dozen different studios around the country. None of the listeners know or care. Anyone can do radio that way using the internet.



Which is why you don't target a local audience when you create digital content. Joe Rogan isn't aiming at a local audience. That's how radio stations have to start thinking. Because the local money is drying up. But the demand for great content is not.
But this supports the 90/10 rule. 90% of listening goes to 10% of the sources; the rest lose money.

Jack Welch got GE out of areas where they could not be in the top 2 or 3 sources in their niche. If you can't be a leader, you waste too much management time on a business that won't give adequate returns... while wasting good time that could be applied to more profitable fields.
 
My issue with Cumulus, after living in a market where they have a cluster and years and years of reading comments about them online, is they appear to be the stripped down, more vanilla version of what iheart already is. And knowing some people who work 'in the building' it seems they are very rigid with control in terms of programming and promotions but also do the usual fix it without fixing it thing, which is what iHeart is known for as well. At some point it just doesnt work and now even safe legacy formats in conservative markets are struggling a bit in some of their markets. Chasing after the same audience and doing it with minimal effort won't pay off long term.

Granted, radio is dying anyway of course but they seem to be in a race to the bottom. And I know, I'm not saying anything anyone else hasn't.
 
Chasing after the same audience and doing it with minimal effort won't pay off long term.

The question is where is the growth? There is none in broadcast radio. If anything, there are continued losses, year after year.

The potential growth is in digital. Cumulus has a robust group of podcasts. That's where they put their emphasis. The bad news is podcasting is also dependent on advertising, and that's caused even non-commercial podcasters to lose money and lay off staff. The real problem is the public wants free content. Until that gets solved, there will be continued layoffs.
 
But at what point does someone go "Maybe I should invest in a change of approach to get a better result"? The problem is the investors dont want to invest to see any growth or change. You got to take risks sometimes in business. This wanting to play it safe and hide strategy with music and programming hasnt paid off, at least in my long term view. Sure it might work temporarily in certain markets but even those markets change somewhat, people tire of the same sound, same 'schtick' so-to-speak.

The podcasts they offer, in my opinion, are largely a waste of time. Chit chat on some subjects. It's largely forgettable. Might be better growth there but sooner or later the podcast world will experience the over saturation affect. Hard to get noticed among all the other content online.
 
But at what point does someone go "Maybe I should invest in a change of approach to get a better result"? T

That time has passed. There is no way to increase revenue from broadcast. The only revenue comes from advertising, and music listeners HATE advertising. So the business model no longer works. There is no amount of investment in talent or format that will cause people to throw away their phones & computers. We just saw it in Seattle, where Hubbard invested in an adventurous AAA format, and it failed to attract an audience after 14 months. The audience for music on the radio isn't growing anymore.
 
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