How Long Does Radio Have Left?

[AM-FM-DXer]

Most people under 20 do not listen to radio - ever. They stream. They listen to podcasts. They watch YouTube. Radio companies face declining revenue. With fewer listeners, ad money is drying up. Layoffs continue. There are music stations in large markets that run jockless.

At some point, radio is likely to vanish. I want to ask the experts how long they think radio has left as a medium in the United States? Will radio somehow attract today's 20-somethings as they age, despite the fact that they don't listen to radio today?

In addition, is there anything that you think can be done to save radio? Perhaps religious broadcasters will claim the ashes of today's stations. Is there hope for anything other than religious programming?

 

[RadioGuy1864]

No one can really say for certain, because no one knows the future. I used to think radio (specifically OTA broadcast radio) had at least another 20 years. The decline seems to be happening faster than I anticipated, so I'm not confident about my timeline. I'll defer to the experts.

 

[kevtronics]

Remember that TV was supposed to kill radio. That's why the FCC allocated so many UHF channels, because they thought every radio station would become a TV station. But radio is still around, 80 years later.

And before that, radio was supposed to kill newspapers. But newspapers are still around, 100 years later.

 

[radiofan2023]

I say 5-10 years for small market AM stations without FM translators. Even if they go fully online, there may not be enough money to sustain them.

 

[newsbot2]

We're already seeing major groups like Cumulus and Townsquare cull low-rated AM stations in rated markets, some even with translators. The decline of radio follows the decline of newspapers, many of which are hanging by a thread or counting on well-heeled benefactors or nonprofits to stay afloat, even in sizeable one-newspaper markets. TV is in big trouble, too, with advertisers fleeing for online and retrans money maxing out. And with talk of banning pharmaceutical ads, which TV is heavily reliant on (much more than cigarette advertising a half-century ago) we could see serious cutbacks in programming on TV stations or networks going dark.

 

[TheBigA]

Most people under 20 do not listen to radio - ever. They stream. They listen to podcasts.

That's also radio. Radio isn't just a device. The device is dying. Radio companies aren't in the device business.

Sirius considers themselves to be radio. So does Spotify. Apple and Amazon have linear radio services. It's all called radio.

With fewer listeners, ad money is drying up. Layoffs continue. There are music stations in large markets that run jockless.

Programming is changing to adapt to streaming and digital delivery. What worked 50 years ago when radio was the only delivery system no longer fits.

Will radio somehow attract today's 20-somethings as they age, despite the fact that they don't listen to radio today?

There is nothing radio companies can do that will cause people to throw away their digital devices and buy transistor radios.

Radio companies NEED to embrace digital, monetize digital, and move forward. What's affecting radio is ALSO affecting TV.

Today's 20 years olds may embrace format radio as they age. But that won't change the fact that they'll use a digital device to listen.

 

[radiofan2023]

I think independent AM stations will be able to go for a little longer, maybe outlasting the major groups by selling, like Stephen King did with WZON specifically. But at some point they'll either go online completely, or shut down.

 

[AM-FM-DXer]

Remember that TV was supposed to kill radio. That's why the FCC allocated so many UHF channels, because they thought every radio station would become a TV station. But radio is still around, 80 years later.

And before that, radio was supposed to kill newspapers. But newspapers are still around, 100 years later.

Newspapers, except for the biggest metro dailies, are in their death spirals now.

Radio, however, is declining fare more precipitously - and by most metrics - than newspapers declined with the advent of radio.

 

[AM-FM-DXer]

That's also radio. Radio isn't just a device. The device is dying. Radio companies aren't in the device business.

Sirius considers themselves to be radio. So does Spotify. Apple and Amazon have linear radio services. It's all called radio.



Programming is changing to adapt to streaming and digital delivery. What worked 50 years ago when radio was the only delivery system no longer fits.


There is nothing radio companies can do that will cause people to throw away their digital devices and buy transistor radios.

Radio companies NEED to embrace digital, monetize digital, and move forward. What's affecting radio is ALSO affecting TV.

Today's 20 years olds may embrace format radio as they age. But that won't change the fact that they'll use a digital device to listen.

I guess I should have specified that I am talking about broadcast/terrestrial radio. Some of us don't think of Spotify, Apple, or Amazon as offering radio. Can you answer the same question for broadcast/terrestrial radio?

 

[RadioGuy1864]

Remember that TV was supposed to kill radio. That's why the FCC allocated so many UHF channels, because they thought every radio station would become a TV station. But radio is still around, 80 years later.

And before that, radio was supposed to kill newspapers. But newspapers are still around, 100 years later.

Radio did not kill the newspapers, but the internet did. Starting with Craigslist which destroyed newspapers classified advertising, which was a huge part of their ad base. True, they are still around, but the "newspaper" in print is a shadow of it's old self. Take the New York Times, print circulation in 2000 1.2 million. Today print is 296,000. Their online circulation, which is national in scope, is about 1.5 million. The New York Times , along with the Wall Street Journal, are really outliers today. Most cities newspapers are hanging on by a thread, and will probably disappear in print completely in the next 5 to 7 years. Unless they transition to a pay-walled site on the internet, they are doomed.

Which begs the question, can radio transition to a paid service online? Because like it or not, the future is online, not OTA.

 

[TheBigA]

Can you answer the same question for broadcast/terrestrial radio?

Radio is not one thing, so there isn't one answer.

Obviously CHR stations are having a lot of trouble right now. That trouble is exacerbated by the music industry.

Because of changes in the music industry, the future of music radio as we knew it is pretty limited.

I was at a music industry conference last month, and a lot of people in the industry think of broadcast radio as obsolete.

 

[TheBigA]

Which begs the question, can radio transition to a paid service online?

That process has already begun.

If you want certain formats, you have to pay for them. Either online subscription or Sirius.

 

[SomeRadioGuy]

Up here? IF funding doesnt kill us first, forever

We provide life saving information that no one else really can in such a widespread, trust worthy fashion

 

[secondchoice]

IMHO OTA stations that don't stream are going to have issues. One thing radio has been in the past is free. Since Nabster few people want to pay for their music. Somewhere there is a balance between Pandora and 8 or 10 spot commercial breaks. There will be a few folks that will pay for music but I consider them evolved from folks who listened to tape players in their cars rather radio and walkman users. These people will never be reachable.

As a former Pandora shareholder, (long story) I feel the terestal sales people should have the option for local advertisers to buy "Internet Radio", geofenced commercials on at least 50 or 60 music channels that are free to anyone no app needed.

 

[TheBigA]

I feel the terestal sales people should have the option for local advertisers to buy "Internet Radio", geofenced commercials on at least 50 or 60 music channels that are free to anyone no app needed.

People want to make their own playlists. Curated radio, even at Apple Music, is losing money. Pandora isn't as attractive as it used to be.

 

[Theater of My Mind]

Radio isn't just a device. The device is dying. ...

Radio companies NEED to embrace digital, monetize digital, and move forward.

The problem is that in the pre-digital era, radio enjoyed a walled garden where a privileged few companies held a handful of FCC licenses to serve a whole market with little-to-no outside competition. The advertising model worked because neither the audience nor the advertisers had many other great options.

But how do these legacy companies embrace digital, monetize digital and move forward? Once you go digital, you're competing with literally thousands of curated radio stations from all over the place, podcasts, personalized on-demand music services, and even satellite radio which itself is getting long in the tooth, but still adds to the long list of choices. All of this has already splintered the former walled garden audience into a million little pieces.

And we're just talking about audio choices. But unless you're driving, you don't even need audio to be one of your primary entertainment options today. Students aren't sitting in their bedrooms or dorm rooms listening to the radio like it's the 80s or even the early 90s when there was nothing else to turn to. They're all online and on their phones using social media, YouTube etc. The DJ isn't their source of companionship anymore. And as far as advertising goes, Google and Meta literally replaced radio for reaching that audience with ads long ago.

Radio is still mainly using the same ad-supported model it did in the mid-20th century when it was one of the three main entertainment choices, along with TV and print. Lots of people who grew up in that era, right up to the 90s, still like radio because it was an important part of their lives during their formative years. They're still here for it, but what happens when they "age out" of the advertising demo? The 20-year old in 1995 is already 50 today.

Radio companies used to be a big fish in a small sea. Even if they move to digital now, they become a small fish in a huge ocean of more attractive options.

 

[TheBigA]

But how do these legacy companies embrace digital, monetize digital and move forward?

The big ones already have. They're reallocating resources to follow the money. They have to adjust budgets to the current business model.

iHeart is a major streamer and podcaster. They got started early. Broadcasting is almost equal in revenue to digital.

Everything you see, from staff layoffs to the shutdown of AMs is evidence of what I'm talking about.

The future won't be like the past.

 

[Bongwater]

Terrestrial broadcast radio will fade away when the saturation of digital is at a point where it's no longer feasible to operate as an over the air radio service.

There are still millions of radios in use. But only by older people who actively remember using them either growing up or younger people by acquired habit (and if your car don't at least have something like factory installed Bluetooth and/or Sirius/XM, good luck getting a date with any female under 30, so guys in that age group tell me.)

When those listeners upgrade/die-off and by extension, their old radios are no longer in use, streaming becomes more important as current tech and newer generations replace them.

When? That's not in my pay grade. But we have three factors at work; 1) Auto tech: Which used to walk shoulder to shoulder with the radio industry, now locking horns with it because 2) Consumers want Bluetooth/WiFi/Satellite connected everything now. Ad agencies notice this and 3) Spend more of their clients budgets on digital and less on terrestrial radio. And sooner or later, those transmitters and all their fuss and expense will be just another thing to cut to give the boys on the boards new summer homes in the Hamptons with.

I guess when you start seeing the major radio conglomerates (iHeart, Audacy, Hubbard, etc) selling off their radio divisions piecemeal to smaller groups as their focus goes exclusively to digital entertainment, then you'll have a more visible timeframe.

 

[TheBigA]

I guess when you start seeing the major radio conglomerates (iHeart, Audacy, Hubbard, etc) selling off their radio divisions piecemeal to smaller groups as their focus goes exclusively to digital entertainment, then you'll have a more visible timeframe.

I think they'd love to do that, but the smaller groups see the writing on the wall. They're not going into debt to buy a declining resource.

There are no younger buyers for radio stations. All you see are boomers spending some of their accumulated wealth to relive their youth.

What the major companies are doing is shutting down AMs, and cutting expenses to fit with the new business model.

 

[tall_guy1]

I can see FM lasting a bit longer. Local TV and linear broadcasting is in worse shape than it is, and it's still around. AM will probably go away, but I can see FM sticking around a while longer. And CHR will probably be around a while longer too...there's still some big pop acts holding it up.