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How Long Does Radio Have Left?

Well, I gave four examples of hosts that are local. And they are very popular in their markets.

They're all still there. None have been replaced. In fact most of the DJs in LA are local. What's your point?

All I am trying to do is list advantages that broadcast radio can bring.

Nobody likes firing people. There are lots of on air talent working right now. They haven't stopped people from using other devices.
 
They're all still there. None have been replaced. In fact most of the DJs in LA are local. What's your point?



Nobody likes firing people. There are lots of on air talent working right now. They haven't stopped people from using other devices.
Hosts that are there a long time from in market help establish that station though. Johnny Dare became a part of 98.9's DNA in KQRC, for instance, even after he left.
 
I do not think SiriusXM will survive in the long run, and there is zero chance of any new competitor for satellite radio. As far as online streaming, I expect that to align with the remaining FM stations, with a reduction in standalone (Internet-only) "stations".
I think SiriusXM might go to internet only, since they can have higher bandwidth and unlimited channels.
 
I think SiriusXM might go to internet only, since they can have higher bandwidth and unlimited channels.
SiriusXM already has plenty of online-only channels. They're also rolling out a free, ad-supported music service delivered to some new cars via wireless mobile data rather than satellite.
 
I once worked for a cluster of 3 stations, country, AC-ish and urban.

THe country was the biggest signal and most popular. Urban had steve harvey and other shows no one loal.
Ac had live morning show, tracked the rest of the day, smae for country.

I proposed have someone track the morning show on the AC station or bring in a satellite morning show and move the AC morning person to afternoons on the country station.... and horeee sheet, you'd think i was trying to take my GM's first born kid, kidney and car by her reaction. put the effort where it would clearly produce myresults and let the overworked PD not have to get up at before the ass crack dawn and work at 10 hour day every day
 
SiriusXM already has plenty of online-only channels. They're also rolling out a free, ad-supported music service delivered to some new cars via wireless mobile data rather than satellite.
All of which is why I said they'll go online only/away from being satellite delivered.
 
All of which is why I said they'll go online only/away from being satellite delivered.

Maybe. In December, the company announced it was refocusing on it's "core business" and away from streaming:

 
Remember that TV was supposed to kill radio. That's why the FCC allocated so many UHF channels, because they thought every radio station would become a TV station. But radio is still around, 80 years later.

And before that, radio was supposed to kill newspapers. But newspapers are still around, 100 years later.
Good point on TV.

But newspapers are disappearing, and have been in decline since free, online classified ads hit the internet nationwide, in 2000, and the decline has increased post pandemic. 2000+ local papers went under in 2023 alone. Online isn't saving them. So when a medium declines, that can happen fairly quickly.

As we all know here, the internet has been the game changer. The new version of the old medium hasn't altered the content -- the online NYT is similar to the paper version from the 1980s -- but a lot of papers that went under in the past decade or so never made money online. Same thing with some AM and FM stations that recently went under. Online didn't save them. There is so much competition for content once you go online-only.

Hopefully radio has a couple decades left. Its free cost will probably work in its favor.
 
A company called Primosphere sued because they have a monopoly after the merger. I don't know what the result was,

It wasn't a lawsuit.

Primosphere was one of the six applicants in 1992 for the auction of satellite spectrum to offer digital radio and they were one of only four remaining when the auction took place in 1997. There were only to be two winning bidders, and they were one of the two losing bidders.

Fast forward ten years to the merger of Sirius and XM, and Primosphere made the ludicrous proposal to the FCC that they be allowed to use the SiriusXM infrastructure to run their competing service. They used as an argument against the merger that the two companies' never made available a receiver usable on both services.

FCC turned them down, saying they had no standing since they were a losing bidder in the original auction.

There was a lawsuit, but it wasn't brought by Primosphere ... a class action suit was filed by subscribers a year after the merger, claiming it had created an "abusive monopoly" that raised prices "above competitive levels". The settlement of that in 2020 resulted in over 400,000 subscribers receiving either part of a $25 million settlement fund (if they were no longer subscribers) or three free months of SiriusXM's highest service tier.
 
I think the stations that will be able to run cost-effectively will remain on the air for some time to come, but with the expectation that 90% of the survivors will be on FM. The powerhouse AMs will be the only ones that will be able to bring in enough revenue to support the electric bill and keeping that nice expensive real estate for the towers. (The other exception might be for those stations serving ethnic communities, although those will likely migrate to FM as station owners decide to sell out.)

The syndicated sports talk networks will also end up migrating to FM along with everything else, and I actually believe that will be part of the eventual move to license translators as standalone FMs as their associated AMs go permanently silent.

I also truly believe (and yes, that is a deliberate and sarcastic choice of words) that there will be an upper limit to how many stations are "saved" by the religious broadcasters. Given that they are dependent on donations from the faithful, that pie can't be cut into too many more pieces, so the revenue will hit a ceiling.

Music stations are likely to go even farther in the direction of syndicated morning shows and voicetracking from co-owned stations in other markets. It's the simple economy of costs. A lot more stations will sign up for national formats or do a "jukebox" format. (Either approach will make it easier to get enough ad revenue to stay afloat.)

I think that, in the smaller markets, there will be a retrench by the group owners and a possibility of increased local ownership. We are already seeing the downsizing of Townsquare as one example, although they seem more focused on taking stations silent than selling them.

I do not think SiriusXM will survive in the long run, and there is zero chance of any new competitor for satellite radio. As far as online streaming, I expect that to align with the remaining FM stations, with a reduction in standalone (Internet-only) "stations".

Of course, as Dennis Miller used to say: These are just my opinions. I could be wrong.
What has a better future. SXM, FM or Spotify. If one music format is going to win I’d bet Spotify.
 
What has a better future. SXM, FM or Spotify. If one music format is going to win I’d bet Spotify.

Well, as I said earlier, I don't see SiriusXM having a bright future. They've already been hemorrhaging listeners for some time now and I honestly believe their new "streaming" service is a worried reaction to everything they are seeing happen ... not only to them but the rest of the industry.

Although I expect that FM will decline a bit more, I believe there are still a lot of good years left for it. I was reminded by a friend who read my earlier thesis here that as more of the talk/ethnic/religious formats migrate to FM there will be more mainstream listening as fewer stations will be left doing traditional music formats.

Spotify? Well, they look real good right now, but I fear they will fall to the fickleness of online users. Anyone remember Napster? Yahoo Music? Grooveshark? Rdio? It's entirely possible that they will lose out to the "next big thing" just as they captured an audience by being that themselves originally. They've been around for a couple of decades now, and that is certainly in their favor ... but neither you nor I can predict if or when something comes along that the users will embrace more.

I do, however, think they will manage to kill a lot of independent webcaster streams over the next several years, regardless of whether or not they survive themselves.
 
Well, as I said earlier, I don't see SiriusXM having a bright future. They've already been hemorrhaging listeners for some time now and I honestly believe their new "streaming" service is a worried reaction to everything they are seeing happen ... not only to them but the rest of the industry.

Although I expect that FM will decline a bit more, I believe there are still a lot of good years left for it. I was reminded by a friend who read my earlier thesis here that as more of the talk/ethnic/religious formats migrate to FM there will be more mainstream listening as fewer stations will be left doing traditional music formats.

Spotify? Well, they look real good right now, but I fear they will fall to the fickleness of online users. Anyone remember Napster? Yahoo Music? Grooveshark? Rdio? It's entirely possible that they will lose out to the "next big thing" just as they captured an audience by being that themselves originally. They've been around for a couple of decades now, and that is certainly in their favor ... but neither you nor I can predict if or when something comes along that the users will embrace more.

I do, however, think they will manage to kill a lot of independent webcaster streams over the next several years, regardless of whether or not they survive themselves.
If SXM goes, I can see Spotify getting into live sports. MLB, NFL games. That could hurt FM.
 
The imminent death of radio has been declared at least twice, and it didn't happen either time. The first time was in the fifties, when TV was going to kill radio. TV didn't kill radio, but it certainly did change it. Thirty years later, it was MTV and music videos in general that was going to kill radio. It turns out that radio has managed to outlast the version of MTV that was supposed to kill it. Radio is still here, albeit in weakened form.

I think that radio will be around for a long time -- in many respects, it is the cockroach of media, able to mutate and survive almost anything. I'm not going to predict what radio is going to look like in twenty or thirty years, but I suspect that broadcast radio will still be around in some form for longer than that.
 
The telegraph will never die, the newspaper will never die. Technically evolves. Will radio stop existing, no. Will it be a prominent media source in 20 years, probably not.
 
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