In the next Cumulus bankruptcy might some of their stations be bought by Connoisseur Media? Or all of Cumulus?
Well, let's start with
what stations Cumulus owns, by market. Now compare that with both
Connoisseur and
Alpha Media (since we can presume, at least for the moment, that those two lists will be the combined one after the merger; I don't see any potential spinoffs to honor market caps here).
Looking at the Cumulus station portfolio in context: There are no potential conflicts in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee since the combined Connoisseur/Alpha Media portfolio has no existing conflicts in those states (and of course, also including states not listed here that have no Cumulus-owned stations).
Connecticut is probably fine. Cumulus owns an AM and two FMs, but they are in a different market than any of Connoisseur's holdings. Same for New York, and we can also clear Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, and Oregon by comparing Cumulus to Alpha Media (no shared markets).
Most of California is fine,
except (as alluded to in previous posts) San Francisco/San Jose: Cumulus owns four AMs, one recently taken silent, and two FMs, one of which simulcasts an AM. Alpha Media owns five FMs.
Something (or, more accurately, four somethings) would have to go here.
Illinois: Mostly okay, with one huge exception. Alpha Media only owns stations in Chicago, but it's at the legal limit ... five FMs and two AMs. Cumulus owns two FMs and one AM. Three stations would have to be spun off.
Kansas has two problematic markets ... Topeka, and by market definition Kansas City. In Topeka, Alpha Media owns three FMs and one AM, Cumulus owns the market limit of five FMs and two AMs. In KC, Cumulus has six FMs and one AM but Alpha Media has a lone AM/FM combo. (There are no other conflicts in Missouri besides the Kansas City market, which overlaps both states.)
Louisiana? Despite Cumulus having a total of 22 stations statewide, the only conflict is Shreveport, the only market in the state where Alpha Media owns stations. Cumulus' lone AM is silent, and they have four FMs; Alpha also has one AM and four FMs.
South Carolina has a conflict in Columbia, where Alpha Media owns five FMs and Cumulus owns four FMs and a silent AM. Rest of the state is fine.
Texas: Amarillo is (maybe) a problem. Cumulus owns four FMs and a silent AM, Alpha Media owns two AMs. Rest of the state has no shared markets.
Salt Lake City, Utah is problematic as Cumulus owns five FMs and two AMs; Alpha Media owns two FMs and an AM.
These counts of course do not include translators as those do not count against market caps.
But it doesn't look to me that there would need to be a huge number of spinoffs, although it would still be a noticeable number. If Jeff Warshaw is even half as smart as I believe he is, a merger with Cumulus would include taking a lot of AMs in the conflicting markets silent. (Or maybe donated to MMTC for reassignment.)
barrettmedia.com
